Bitshares price discussion

[Riverhead]

The idea that margin trading contributed to the severity of the drop seems reasonable to me also, given the drop mainly seemed to happen on poloniex and not the chinese exchanges.

Yes there is a smaller drop on Yunbi.
Since Btc38 temporarily suspended withdraw/deposit due to the urgent fix or some other reason, there is a much smaller drop.

I noticed that, but it is interesting that the BTC38 price was able to hold strong during all this...lots of buying pressure in the low 0.02 CNY and below level. Hell the 24 hour volume is around $140k there, and the price quickly rebounded from 0.0189 back to 0.0211 now. Someone on BTC38 is buying a hell of a lot of shares.

It's possible that one whale's exist is another whale's ticket to ride. Regardless the shares are insanely undervalued given the sophistication and utility of the platform. There are some businesses that see that utility - hence my purchase of OpenPOS. The platform doesn't need to be all things to all people to succeed just enough things to enough businesses.


Chin up folks. A holder re-org is hardly the end of the world.

[nomoreheroes7]

The idea that margin trading contributed to the severity of the drop seems reasonable to me also, given the drop mainly seemed to happen on poloniex and not the chinese exchanges.

Yes there is a smaller drop on Yunbi.
Since Btc38 temporarily suspended withdraw/deposit due to the urgent fix or some other reason, there is a much smaller drop.

I noticed that, but it is interesting that the BTC38 price was able to hold strong during all this...lots of buying pressure in the low 0.02 CNY and below level. Hell the 24 hour volume is around $140k there, and the price quickly rebounded from 0.0189 back to 0.0211 now. Someone on BTC38 is buying a hell of a lot of shares.

[Riverhead]

I have to say thanks to @xerox because I read a comment from him yesterday saying that the stealth proposal was already approved and have not return. Then I get angry and sold my at 750 range. Thank you xerox.

 

[abit]

If you're right, and the Poloniex sales happened after the BlockTrades sales, then either someone was watching the BlockTrades account and sold when they saw a big sale to us (possibly in some automated fashion which seems slightly improbable to me, but not impossible), or else the bts-qq123-bts account owner also had an existing bts balance on Poloniex and just sold there as well. I guess the scenario where it's one person with two accounts is the most probable one.

This makes sense.

The idea that margin trading contributed to the severity of the drop seems reasonable to me also, given the drop mainly seemed to happen on poloniex and not the chinese exchanges.

Yes there is a smaller drop on Yunbi.
Since Btc38 temporarily suspended withdraw/deposit due to the urgent fix or some other reason, there is a much smaller drop.

[dannotestein]

I sold out around 800 back in November and set an auto buy at around 500, which just got filled. So I guess I should be happy with the profit. Hurrah for me 

Anyone have a clue about why the price just collapsed (again)? Quite slide from 3000.

Account bts-qq123-bts just claimed over 56 million BTS from balances an hour ago and is selling it through Blocktrades. 
That must be Dan's first Chinese backer of Innvictus. I forget his name.
Or somebody needing to cover big losses on the Shanghai exchange with the two limit downs this week.

Well, I try to avoid generally commenting on market activity, since we operate as a market maker, but it looks to me more like the account you mentioned was "reacting" to the price drop rather than causing it. But your idea about the drops in Shanghai exchange being the ultimate cause could be correct; it might be someone needed to cover a margin call on Shanghai exchange by selling on poloniex to get funds. However, I always assumed most chinese traders would be trading on chinese exchanges instead of poloniex, but I suppose that's not universally true of course.

Looks like the dumps on Polo is after the whale transferred BTS to blocktrades.

Looking at Polo's price history chart, the first dump happened at 03:20 - 03:25 GMT, with volume of 1.5M BTS.
The largest volume (5.5M BTS) of dump happened at 3:35-3:40 GMT
Screenshort here: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B3xrm70jSHn4dFZSOXFvU3lSVDg

Looking at bts-qq123-bts's account history, 2M BTS  transferred to blocktrades before 3:20 GMT, Another 10M BTS transferred to blocktrades before 3:35 GMT.

2016-01-07T06:59:03 Transfer 200000 BTS from bts-qq123-bts to blocktrades -- Unlock wallet to see memo.   (Fee: 32.42187 BTS)
2016-01-07T03:36:12 Transfer 100000 BTS from bts-qq123-bts to blocktrades -- Unlock wallet to see memo.   (Fee: 32.42187 BTS)
2016-01-07T03:34:42 Transfer 500000 BTS from bts-qq123-bts to blocktrades -- Unlock wallet to see memo.   (Fee: 32.42187 BTS)
2016-01-07T03:33:12 Transfer 1000000 BTS from bts-qq123-bts to blocktrades -- Unlock wallet to see memo.   (Fee: 32.42187 BTS)
2016-01-07T03:31:39 Transfer 1000000 BTS from bts-qq123-bts to blocktrades -- Unlock wallet to see memo.   (Fee: 32.42187 BTS)
2016-01-07T03:30:03 Transfer 2000000 BTS from bts-qq123-bts to blocktrades -- Unlock wallet to see memo.   (Fee: 32.42187 BTS)
2016-01-07T03:28:42 Transfer 2000000 BTS from bts-qq123-bts to blocktrades -- Unlock wallet to see memo.   (Fee: 32.42187 BTS)
2016-01-07T03:26:51 Transfer 3000000 BTS from bts-qq123-bts to blocktrades -- Unlock wallet to see memo.   (Fee: 32.42187 BTS)
2016-01-07T03:24:48 Transfer 3000000 BTS from bts-qq123-bts to blocktrades -- Unlock wallet to see memo.   (Fee: 32.42187 BTS)
2016-01-07T03:15:36 Transfer 1000000 BTS from bts-qq123-bts to blocktrades -- Unlock wallet to see memo.   (Fee: 32.42187 BTS)
2016-01-07T03:12:36 Transfer 1000000 BTS from bts-qq123-bts to blocktrades -- Unlock wallet to see memo.   (Fee: 32.42187 BTS)
2016-01-07T03:10:33 Transfer 200000 BTS from bts-qq123-bts to blocktrades -- Unlock wallet to see memo.   (Fee: 32.42187 BTS)
2016-01-07T02:58:54 Transfer 100000 BTS from bts-qq123-bts to blocktrades -- Unlock wallet to see memo.   (Fee: 32.42187 BTS)
2016-01-07T02:56:06 Transfer 1000 BTS from bts-qq123-bts to blocktrades -- Unlock wallet to see memo.   (Fee: 32.42187 BTS)
2016-01-07T02:41:18 balance_claim_operation bts-qq123-bts fee: 0 BTS
2016-01-07T02:41:18 balance_claim_operation bts-qq123-bts fee: 0 BTS

@dannotestein ?

It's possible the transfers were made to BlockTrades before the sell off on Poloniex, but the timing is so tight it's rather hard for me to tell the order in which things happened (and the time zone reporting differences don't help).

My belief that it was a reaction was mainly based off the fact that we don't see any transfers from bts-qq123-bts to any account other than BlockTrades (i.e. they didn't make any transfers to Poloniex before or after selling to us). What I can say for certain is that BlockTrades didn't make any trades on Poloniex during any of this time. If our system did this sort of automated dumping, where it sells below the price it buys at, we would have gone bankrupt long ago during one of the earlier crashes. However, we have been and continue to be a profitable enterprise.

If you're right, and the Poloniex sales happened after the BlockTrades sales, then either someone was watching the BlockTrades account and sold when they saw a big sale to us (possibly in some automated fashion which seems slightly improbable to me, but not impossible), or else the bts-qq123-bts account owner also had an existing bts balance on Poloniex and just sold there as well. I guess the scenario where it's one person with two accounts is the most probable one.

The idea that margin trading contributed to the severity of the drop seems reasonable to me also, given the drop mainly seemed to happen on poloniex and not the chinese exchanges.

[nomoreheroes7]

I thought whales knew better and would never dump like this if they wanted max profits, was this an action to put pressure on CNX? or it was just a need for cash because of the chinese stock market?

I think a lot of the problem is due to cascading margin calls that seem to make things way worse than they need to be. The markets are just too damn thin to handle Polo's margin, so the price is able to drop 50% at the drop of a hat. I suppose it could do the same upwards, but it seems there are always gonna be more shorts than longs. It's a losing battle.

If I remember corectly, in the past, bts price had a decline in price when there was a rise in chinese stocks and also another decline afterwards when the stocks droped/crushed.

From my experience, whatever happens -- BTC goes down, BTC goes up, stock markets crash, stock markets rally, BM stubs his toe -- BTS price goes down. No justice either way.

[chryspano]

I thought whales knew better and would never dump like this if they wanted max profits, was this an action to put pressure on CNX? or it was just a need for cash because of the chinese stock market? If I remember corectly, in the past, bts price had a decline in price when there was a rise in chinese stocks and also another decline afterwards when the stocks droped/crushed.

EDIT
Could this be a trap? are we sure that the bts that were sent to the exchanges were the ones that actualy sold? If I was a whale I would try to sent a huge amount in the exchanges and then enjoy the havoc.

[mf-tzo]

οοο θεε μου...
oοο mon dieu..
oοο my god...

panic in the air...someone is very exciting about bts..

[abit]

I guess that the 2nd dump happened at arround 6:15 GMT is made by Baozou, who operates dacx.com.

yun-bts sent 5,000,000 BTS to poloniexwallet
block 2,445,507 - 8 hours ago - 32 BTS
yun-bts sent 5,000,000 BTS to poloniexwallet
block 2,445,032 - 8 hours ago - 32 BTS
yun-bts sent 4,170,000 BTS to poloniexwallet
block 2,444,122 - 9 hours ago - 32 BTS
yun-bts sent 2,686,000 BTS to poloniexwallet
block 2,443,621 - 10 hours ago - 32 BTS
yun-bts sent 1,600,000 BTS to poloniexwallet
block 2,443,314 - 10 hours ago - 32 BTS

baozou sent 10,540,000 BTS to yun-bts
block 2,291,564 - 5 days ago - 32 BTS
baozou sent 8,000,000 BTS to yun-bts
block 2,291,467 - 5 days ago - 32 BTS

[abit]

I sold out around 800 back in November and set an auto buy at around 500, which just got filled. So I guess I should be happy with the profit. Hurrah for me 

Anyone have a clue about why the price just collapsed (again)? Quite slide from 3000.

Account bts-qq123-bts just claimed over 56 million BTS from balances an hour ago and is selling it through Blocktrades. 
That must be Dan's first Chinese backer of Innvictus. I forget his name.
Or somebody needing to cover big losses on the Shanghai exchange with the two limit downs this week.

Well, I try to avoid generally commenting on market activity, since we operate as a market maker, but it looks to me more like the account you mentioned was "reacting" to the price drop rather than causing it. But your idea about the drops in Shanghai exchange being the ultimate cause could be correct; it might be someone needed to cover a margin call on Shanghai exchange by selling on poloniex to get funds. However, I always assumed most chinese traders would be trading on chinese exchanges instead of poloniex, but I suppose that's not universally true of course.

Looks like the dumps on Polo is after the whale transferred BTS to blocktrades.

Looking at Polo's price history chart, the first dump happened at 03:20 - 03:25 GMT, with volume of 1.5M BTS.
The largest volume (5.5M BTS) of dump happened at 3:35-3:40 GMT
Screenshort here: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B3xrm70jSHn4dFZSOXFvU3lSVDg

Looking at bts-qq123-bts's account history, 2M BTS  transferred to blocktrades before 3:20 GMT, Another 10M BTS transferred to blocktrades before 3:35 GMT.

2016-01-07T06:59:03 Transfer 200000 BTS from bts-qq123-bts to blocktrades -- Unlock wallet to see memo.   (Fee: 32.42187 BTS)
2016-01-07T03:36:12 Transfer 100000 BTS from bts-qq123-bts to blocktrades -- Unlock wallet to see memo.   (Fee: 32.42187 BTS)
2016-01-07T03:34:42 Transfer 500000 BTS from bts-qq123-bts to blocktrades -- Unlock wallet to see memo.   (Fee: 32.42187 BTS)
2016-01-07T03:33:12 Transfer 1000000 BTS from bts-qq123-bts to blocktrades -- Unlock wallet to see memo.   (Fee: 32.42187 BTS)
2016-01-07T03:31:39 Transfer 1000000 BTS from bts-qq123-bts to blocktrades -- Unlock wallet to see memo.   (Fee: 32.42187 BTS)
2016-01-07T03:30:03 Transfer 2000000 BTS from bts-qq123-bts to blocktrades -- Unlock wallet to see memo.   (Fee: 32.42187 BTS)
2016-01-07T03:28:42 Transfer 2000000 BTS from bts-qq123-bts to blocktrades -- Unlock wallet to see memo.   (Fee: 32.42187 BTS)
2016-01-07T03:26:51 Transfer 3000000 BTS from bts-qq123-bts to blocktrades -- Unlock wallet to see memo.   (Fee: 32.42187 BTS)
2016-01-07T03:24:48 Transfer 3000000 BTS from bts-qq123-bts to blocktrades -- Unlock wallet to see memo.   (Fee: 32.42187 BTS)
2016-01-07T03:15:36 Transfer 1000000 BTS from bts-qq123-bts to blocktrades -- Unlock wallet to see memo.   (Fee: 32.42187 BTS)
2016-01-07T03:12:36 Transfer 1000000 BTS from bts-qq123-bts to blocktrades -- Unlock wallet to see memo.   (Fee: 32.42187 BTS)
2016-01-07T03:10:33 Transfer 200000 BTS from bts-qq123-bts to blocktrades -- Unlock wallet to see memo.   (Fee: 32.42187 BTS)
2016-01-07T02:58:54 Transfer 100000 BTS from bts-qq123-bts to blocktrades -- Unlock wallet to see memo.   (Fee: 32.42187 BTS)
2016-01-07T02:56:06 Transfer 1000 BTS from bts-qq123-bts to blocktrades -- Unlock wallet to see memo.   (Fee: 32.42187 BTS)
2016-01-07T02:41:18 balance_claim_operation bts-qq123-bts fee: 0 BTS
2016-01-07T02:41:18 balance_claim_operation bts-qq123-bts fee: 0 BTS

@dannotestein ?

[infovortice2013]

maybe keep in 300-600 range for this months ?

[Akado]

One less whale to worry about. Hopefully since it dumper there can be a rebound and shares are absorber by more members. Better distribution and eventually if the whale wants to buy back it will give a nice support.

Call it wishful thinking 

[KenMonkey]

Capitulation jubilation!!

come get yer bitshares, discounted bitshares!

[karnal]

Literally spilled my coffee this morning checking the price.. jesus.

[theredpill]

I have to say thanks to @xerox because I read a comment from him yesterday saying that the stealth proposal was already approved and have not return. Then I get angry and sold my at 750 range. Thank you xerox.