Author Topic: Ethereum price discussion  (Read 79611 times)

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Offline bobmaloney

...if I mined bitcoin with a Core2Duo @ $.12/kwh back in 2009...
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Offline Ander

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It was caused by Ethercoin. For the last year it was the main vehicle for people to invest who missed the IPO and only had 1/60th of the actual supply, so it was clearly over-valued but for a brief period the market referenced that as the starting point. 

However it was clear it would crash once more supply came online and will probably fall further.

Yes this.  Ethercoin was able to freely pump without much supply being able to be sold. 
When ETH launched some people were initially pricing based on ethercoin price which was over 10x the ipo price.  People wanting to buy at that price mostly bought ethercoin.

Then once the actual supply came in it dwarfed demand so price has been falling to more reasonable levels.  I think it needs to fall to IPO price before it will find real support, but I could be wrong.  I dont plan to buy any if its market cap is higher than bitshares.  If Bitshares equals its market cap at some point I'll swap a bit, probably 5-10%.    If it ever falls a lot below Bitshares cap I'll get some more.
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Offline Empirical1.2

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In summary 16% inflation.

I thought it was even higher than that.

But yeah its really high and will be dragging down the price until they switch to PoS.

Not necessary . It depends on who is getting the inflation supply .
If people with deep pockets are getting it , they wouldn't dump it , rather they will use their enormous wealth to sustain the price and wait for a bull market to pump it .
That's why Bitcoin isn't crashing like what was predicted by Stan a year ago with POW , because major mining operations are exactly deep pockets .

The more centralized mining industry is , the more helpful to the price it will be . On the other hand , if anyone with a computer can get their hands on some coins easily , then high inflation
is surely harmful to the price .

There's no evidence miners are hoarding coins to my knowledge but rather selling them to meet expenses.

Bitcoin declined consistently for a year and a half after the bull market. This indicates new coins are being sold not held.

The inflation a coin can support depends on the average level of net new demand in weak to neutral market conditions imo.

For Bitcoin this seems to be about the $230 level.

For BTS there is a lot of new shares being released to those who didn't support things like the merger. So you have consistent selling pressure but very little new demand, so it can go very low unless BTS 2.0 comes out and new users and investors are attracted.



« Last Edit: August 10, 2015, 09:14:10 pm by Empirical1.2 »
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Offline Ander

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There's no evidence miners are hoarding coins to my knowledge but rather selling them to meet expenses.

Bitcoin declined consistently for a year and a half after the bull market. This is indicates new coins are being sold not held.

The inflation a coin can support depends on the average level of net new demand in weak to neutral market conditions imo.

For Bitcoin this seems to be about the $230 level.

I agree, miners are worse holders than IPO buyers.  Miners have ongoing electricity expenses to keep their operation going.  They have to be selling something to raise funds to keep mining, so they probably at least need to sell some of their coins.

IPO buyers spent investment dollars on the IPO.  They have no ongoing costs to continue hodling.
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Offline liondani

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http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitshares/#charts

at launch we had about 70 MIO $ marketcap ... or i'm wrong ?

It was about one month after launch...
So I predict something identical will happen to ethereum as well...
One major pump must happen (maybe after they make the transition to POS with Casper) and then they will dump it...
Mark my words... The 4x factor against bitshares is very strong.... even on Google they are at least 4x more popular than us...
So on the major pump I predict they will manage to get minimum 4x$80M(our highs)=$320M marketcap and the second place on coinmarketcap for a couple of days....
As toast said, we still don't have seen a real pump. It was only due the non-KYC member's that couldn't sell the first 1-2 days due the 6000 needed confirmations before they can trade their ether's... so the demand was technically much higher than the supply the first days.


PS So yes I believe the dump will come .... BUT after the REAL PUMP... and that has not happened yet!

Offline Empirical1.2

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http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitshares/#charts

at launch we had about 70 MIO $ marketcap ... or i'm wrong ?

It was about one month after launch...
So I predict something identical will happen to ethereum as well...
One major pump must happen (maybe after they make the transition to POS with Casper) and then they will dump it...
Mark my words... The 4x factor against bitshares is very strong.... even on Google they are at least 4x more popular than us...
So on the major pump I predict they will manage to get minimum 4x$80M(our highs)=$320M marketcap and the second place on coinmarketcap for a couple of days....
As toast said, we still don't have seen a real pump. It was only due the non-KYC member's that couldn't sell the first 1-2 days due the 6000 needed confirmations before they can trade their ether's... so the demand was technically much higher than the supply the first days.


PS So yes I believe the dump will come .... BUT after the REAL PUMP... and that has not happened yet!

ETH will have to release an exciting and hyped feature to get a big pump.

For BTSX it wasn't really a pump. BTSX climbed beautifully and consistently vs. BTC for nearly 6 weeks in a row. Aug 30th to Oct 4th.

My personal opinion is that we would have continued climbing above LTC and beyond (Which there was already a prediction market for) It was only the reality of dilution that stopped BTSX in it's tracks imo. Though this is obv widely disputed.

We know that a lot of bitcoiners and altcoiners think btsx is a "crapcoin" and a ponzi scheme. So why do we really care what they say about us diluting btsx?

Kind of reminds me of the famous five monkeys experiment. 
Nobody in those communities is willing to go for the bananas any more
but no one remembers why.
;)


Kind of reminds me of the famous goose that laid the golden eggs.


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Offline liondani

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ETH will have to release an exciting and hyped feature to get a big pump.

I think they will... After all they are experts on hyping  :P

Offline Ander

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ETH will have to release an exciting and hyped feature to get a big pump.

I think they will... After all they are experts on hyping  :P
They definitely are.  I think they will get a pump at some point, but not until after the fall to IPO price.  The reality of the crypto bear market needs to hit ethereum as well.  It doesnt get to just not release for most of the bear market, and then appear later on at a way higher market cap.  It needs to go through the dump phase just like every other project.
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Offline btswildpig

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In summary 16% inflation.

I thought it was even higher than that.

But yeah its really high and will be dragging down the price until they switch to PoS.

Not necessary . It depends on who is getting the inflation supply .
If people with deep pockets are getting it , they wouldn't dump it , rather they will use their enormous wealth to sustain the price and wait for a bull market to pump it .
That's why Bitcoin isn't crashing like what was predicted by Stan a year ago with POW , because major mining operations are exactly deep pockets .

The more centralized mining industry is , the more helpful to the price it will be . On the other hand , if anyone with a computer can get their hands on some coins easily , then high inflation
is surely harmful to the price .

There's no evidence miners are hoarding coins to my knowledge but rather selling them to meet expenses.

Bitcoin declined consistently for a year and a half after the bull market. This indicates new coins are being sold not held.

The inflation a coin can support depends on the average level of net new demand in weak to neutral market conditions imo.

For Bitcoin this seems to be about the $230 level.

For BTS there is a lot of new shares being released to those who didn't support things like the merger. So you have consistent selling pressure but very little new demand, so it can go very low unless BTS 2.0 comes out and new users and investors are attracted.

Miners are not Mining operations .
I know some of them quite well .
In fact , some of them have formed an alliance to sustain the price . And they often avoid selling it on the market .(from what i have known , some people from Europe often buy Bitcoin from a major mining operation in China outside the online market . )

Also , big time mining operations do not need to constantly sell coins to pay basic expense . They were rich in the first place . Also , they have absurdly cheap electricity . While some of you might think "poor miners , they need to sell coins to pay enormous cost " , well , that's just the small time miners who don't have scale advantage . Industrial mining operations on the other hand , are far more lucrative than normal manufacturing industry .

As for the drop after the bull market , that's bound to happen one way or another even without further inflation . Every stock does that after a full 5 wave cycle .
What matters is , if there will be another new circle .

Also , there is NO real "demand" on a highly speculative market . Everybody follows trend . Once the trend comes , the market would convince you that "you need this thing !!!! or you'll be the sucker !!!"  then ...there comes the demand . Because in any speculative market , your expectation is based on what you think other people's expectations are .

Also , when the up trend vanished , everybody who felt so strong to "demand" it would be gone .
« Last Edit: August 11, 2015, 03:04:57 am by btswildpig »
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Offline mint chocolate chip

iirc BTS price surged when I3 announced they were buying BTS with the donation funds because they expected holding BTS was a better investment than holding PTS or Bitcoin at that moment. That post in the forum set off a buying spree which resulted in the all time high. For the record, I3 said they only let people sell into them and didn't push the price themselves, but that support and confidence was a major catalyst for the BTS all time high.

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And they often avoid selling it on the market .(from what i have known , some people from Europe often buy Bitcoin from a major mining operation in China outside the online market . )
If miners avoid selling on the market then at the same time those "people from Europe" avoid buying on the market. I'd think the net effect is close to zero.

Also , big time mining operations do not need to constantly sell coins to pay basic expense . They were rich in the first place .
And what is the source of their wealth? Surely, they must have sold some of their BTC before they became rich.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2015, 09:13:20 am by jakub »

Offline Empirical1.2

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iirc BTS price surged when I3 announced they were buying BTS with the donation funds because they expected holding BTS was a better investment than holding PTS or Bitcoin at that moment. That post in the forum set off a buying spree which resulted in the all time high. For the record, I3 said they only let people sell into them and didn't push the price themselves, but that support and confidence was a major catalyst for the BTS all time high.

It was around the same time but in my version of events, I believe the two were largely unrelated.
The BTSX $ high was caused by the release of BitUSD.

In July they released a BTSX MVP without BitAssets. So the market valued it quite low.  The original spike was anticipation of the release of BitAssets and the BTSX all time $ high came within 24 hours of the first BitUSD being in circulation.

BitUSD is in circulation!!!

However the original BitAssets were flawed in terms of maintaining a tight peg because bulls were willing to short too far below it, which I'd predicted.

I think lots of people will be willing to short BitUSD, not a lot willing to go long at the start.

Might make BitUSD price trade too far below peg. But this will hurt BTSX price causing the situation to correct itself...

Seems like it may need interest rates if you really want to keep it at 1-1. Because a short may be willing to short BitUSD and pay X% interest to entice a long to trade.

BTSX crashed 50% in 3 days, when the peg didn't appear to be holding.

However this was addressed by not allowing shorting below the peg and shorts competing on interest rates instead. This proposed change regained the confidence of the market and BTSX resumed it's climb in spite of a significant BTC downturn & reached a new all time high vs. BTC on Oct 4th. 

It was only the reality of dilution that I've already referenced in another post above that stopped BTSX from world domination as it's Chinese popularity in particular was spreading like a virus at the time.

That's not to say the current BTS construct can't be successful.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2015, 09:56:32 am by Empirical1.2 »
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Offline btswildpig

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iirc BTS price surged when I3 announced they were buying BTS with the donation funds because they expected holding BTS was a better investment than holding PTS or Bitcoin at that moment. That post in the forum set off a buying spree which resulted in the all time high. For the record, I3 said they only let people sell into them and didn't push the price themselves, but that support and confidence was a major catalyst for the BTS all time high.

It was around the same time but in my version of events, I believe the two were largely unrelated.
The BTSX $ high was caused by the release of BitUSD.

In July they released a BTSX MVP without BitAssets. So the market valued it quite low.  The original spike was anticipation of the release of BitAssets and the BTSX all time $ high came within 24 hours of the first BitUSD being in circulation.

BitUSD is in circulation!!!

However the original BitAssets were flawed in terms of maintaining a tight peg because bulls were willing to short too far below it, which I'd predicted.

I think lots of people will be willing to short BitUSD, not a lot willing to go long at the start.

Might make BitUSD price trade too far below peg. But this will hurt BTSX price causing the situation to correct itself...

Seems like it may need interest rates if you really want to keep it at 1-1. Because a short may be willing to short BitUSD and pay X% interest to entice a long to trade.

BTSX crashed 50% in 3 days, when the peg didn't appear to be holding.

However this was addressed by not allowing shorting below the peg and shorts competing on interest rates instead. This proposed change regained the confidence of the market and BTSX resumed it's climb in spite of a significant BTC downturn & reached a new all time high vs. BTC on Oct 4th. 

It was only the reality of dilution that I've already referenced in another post above that stopped BTSX from world domination as it's Chinese popularity in particular was spreading like a virus at the time.

That's not to say the current BTS construct can't be successful.

There was no cause for the all time high .
The high was bound to happened simply for BTS flat lined at June to July for two months .
New coin , flat lined in the candle chart for a long time , all indication of a pump , just looked for the right excuse .
If it weren't for the release of BitUSD , there could be other excuse .
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Offline Empirical1.2

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There was no cause for the all time high .
The high was bound to happened simply for BTS flat lined at June to July for two months .
New coin , flat lined in the candle chart for a long time , all indication of a pump , just looked for the right excuse .
If it weren't for the release of BitUSD , there could be other excuse .

You seem to live in a reality where markets are only moved by whales and trend chasers.
Prices reflect and respond to information too.

If BM & friends were raided and arrested tomorrow the BTS price would fall a lot.
If they announced BTS 2.0 was ready and bug free tomorrow the price would rise a lot.

Sometimes markets can seem irrational but they are always reacting to events and new information.
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Offline Ander

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ETH found support at .0025 and bounced.  Will the rally have legs, or just be a bounce and then come to new lows?  I dont know but I feel that it has to go lower, closer to the IPO price.
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