Author Topic: Ethereum price discussion  (Read 79624 times)

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Offline cryptoMPA

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ETH found support at .0025 and bounced.  Will the rally have legs, or just be a bounce and then come to new lows?  I dont know but I feel that it has to go lower, closer to the IPO price.

I'm bear for now thinking we'll see >$30MM. I want to see how it trades for a couple weeks before I dabble in this market though. Hard to say.

Offline liondani

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Are they on a fork
or under attack...

Average network hashrate was consistently more than 100GH/s ... now it is 7.9GH/s!
Average block time was about 18s... now 4 minutes!!!
Active nodes was about 80/95 now 49/52!
2 blocks made more than 3800s to generate! More tha one hour! WTF?
And last... the price jumped the last hours more than 50% with a volume of $1.5M

Any comments from the expert's here?   ;)

EDIT:
It's probably only a problem with stats.ethdev.com  site...
https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/3gmhqc/whats_up_with_the_statsethdevcom_site/
« Last Edit: August 11, 2015, 10:38:17 pm by liondani »

Offline Empirical1.2

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ETH found support at .0025 and bounced.  Will the rally have legs, or just be a bounce and then come to new lows?  I dont know but I feel that it has to go lower, closer to the IPO price.

I'm bear for now thinking we'll see >$30MM. I want to see how it trades for a couple weeks before I dabble in this market though. Hard to say.

I feel like not enough pre-sale ETH has been sold yet. So it should go lower.

I also think they have 25% inflation + in the first year which would mean they need $4 million + in new money a month to sustain a $200 million CAP  and without some kick-ass popular app, I just don't think there's enough new money coming into this space to support that for a long length of time.

At the same time if they're viewed as an immutable crypto-currency, they could be seen as a potential Bitcoin beater which could contribute a lot to a strong valuation.

I'm not buying at the moment, but then again I also missed the IPO which was a mistake.
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Offline mint chocolate chip

iirc BTS price surged when I3 announced they were buying BTS with the donation funds because they expected holding BTS was a better investment than holding PTS or Bitcoin at that moment. That post in the forum set off a buying spree which resulted in the all time high. For the record, I3 said they only let people sell into them and didn't push the price themselves, but that support and confidence was a major catalyst for the BTS all time high.

It was around the same time but in my version of events, I believe the two were largely unrelated.
The BTSX $ high was caused by the release of BitUSD.

In July they released a BTSX MVP without BitAssets. So the market valued it quite low.  The original spike was anticipation of the release of BitAssets and the BTSX all time $ high came within 24 hours of the first BitUSD being in circulation.

BitUSD is in circulation!!!

However the original BitAssets were flawed in terms of maintaining a tight peg because bulls were willing to short too far below it, which I'd predicted.

I think lots of people will be willing to short BitUSD, not a lot willing to go long at the start.

Might make BitUSD price trade too far below peg. But this will hurt BTSX price causing the situation to correct itself...

Seems like it may need interest rates if you really want to keep it at 1-1. Because a short may be willing to short BitUSD and pay X% interest to entice a long to trade.

BTSX crashed 50% in 3 days, when the peg didn't appear to be holding.

However this was addressed by not allowing shorting below the peg and shorts competing on interest rates instead. This proposed change regained the confidence of the market and BTSX resumed it's climb in spite of a significant BTC downturn & reached a new all time high vs. BTC on Oct 4th. 

It was only the reality of dilution that I've already referenced in another post above that stopped BTSX from world domination as it's Chinese popularity in particular was spreading like a virus at the time.

That's not to say the current BTS construct can't be successful.

Looking at the http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitshares/ chart, the announcement https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,7245.0/all.html on August 20 that I3 was using AGS bitcoins to buy BTS was a major factor that took the market cap from around 20 million and nearly tripled it in the next couple days. This created quite a buzz right before BitUSD launched on August 25, and the BitUSD excitement got us to the all time high of 86 million on August 26.

Offline Empirical1.2

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Looking at the http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitshares/ chart, the announcement https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,7245.0/all.html on August 20 that I3 was using AGS bitcoins to buy BTS was a major factor that took the market cap from around 20 million and nearly tripled it in the next couple days. This created quite a buzz right before BitUSD launched on August 25, and the BitUSD excitement got us to the all time high of 86 million on August 26.

It's possible but personally my view as an investor is that while I interpreted the news that they were betting on the success of their own product vs. BTC with AGS funds as positive, it was an insignificant amount relative to the average volume BTSX was doing at that stage. While BItUSD and BitAssets were the core product we had all invested and saw enormous potential in. So, had they...

1. Said we're buying some BTSX with AGS funds but BitUSD will take another two months - I believe the price would have fallen.
2. Released BitUSD and not/mentioned buying some BTSX with AGS - I believe the price would have reacted pretty much the same.

Just my opinion though, we obviously disagree on that one.

On the subject of Ethereum, I have to admit being able to attract developers to add value for free is a pretty big competitive edge.


It is harder to develop a BTS fork than to write a dapp for ethereum. Ethereum very clearly places developers first and cares only about providing a good toolchain for building dapps.

One the most precious and expensive resources for blockchains is talented developers like yourself. So I have to admit the fact that Ethereum is able to attract talented developers to add value to their blockchain without needing to pay them directly is pretty huge.
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Offline liondani

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I also think they have 25% inflation + in the first year which would mean they need $4 million + in new money a month to sustain a $200 million CAP  and without some kick-ass popular app, I just don't think there's enough

Practically it's much lower since the block production time  is greater than expected... so the blocks produced in one year will be significant less than expected... (so less ether's practically in circulation the first year)
Not to mention how much ethers will never get claimed because after one year I am sure many will not remember their passwords, (if they remember they participated on the IPO)   :P

Offline mint chocolate chip

Looking at the http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitshares/ chart, the announcement https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,7245.0/all.html on August 20 that I3 was using AGS bitcoins to buy BTS was a major factor that took the market cap from around 20 million and nearly tripled it in the next couple days. This created quite a buzz right before BitUSD launched on August 25, and the BitUSD excitement got us to the all time high of 86 million on August 26.

It's possible but personally my view as an investor is that while I interpreted the news that they were betting on the success of their own product vs. BTC with AGS funds as positive, it was an insignificant amount relative to the average volume BTSX was doing at that stage. While BItUSD and BitAssets were the core product we had all invested and saw enormous potential in. So, had they...

1. Said we're buying some BTSX with AGS funds but BitUSD will take another two months - I believe the price would have fallen.
2. Released BitUSD and not/mentioned buying some BTSX with AGS - I believe the price would have reacted pretty much the same.

Just my opinion though, we obviously disagree on that one.

On the subject of Ethereum, I have to admit being able to attract developers to add value for free is a pretty big competitive edge.


It is harder to develop a BTS fork than to write a dapp for ethereum. Ethereum very clearly places developers first and cares only about providing a good toolchain for building dapps.

One the most precious and expensive resources for blockchains is talented developers like yourself. So I have to admit the fact that Ethereum is able to attract talented developers to add value to their blockchain without needing to pay them directly is pretty huge.
Good points, I know I personally read that and added to my ags donation bts some exchange bought bts at that moment and continued to buy over the next several days at every level going up...I think its been a great trait how open our devs are with the community.

I missed the boat on ether as well. The logical thinking is ether will come down in price, but it seems the market does the opposite of what people expect so often that it might just go to the moon.

Offline Ander

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Well, after initially dropping 70% from the starting price, its now continuing to rally.  I have no idea where this is going, lol.  I wish we were as good at generating hype as the ETH guys.
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Offline Empirical1.2

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I have no idea where this is going, lol. 

Me neither.

Breaking $100 million has always  big psychological barrier for LTC up or down. So my guess is ETH will spike up to 120 million at least on this move. But I'm 0 for 2 atm.  (Missed the IPO and the recent $40 million bottom.)

If it can get ahead of LTC like we were hoping BTSX could do back in the day, who knows. Interesting.

« Last Edit: August 13, 2015, 05:39:23 pm by Empirical1.2 »
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Offline BunkerChainLabs-DataSecurityNode

Could it be all artificial?

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Offline nomoreheroes7

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Could it be all artificial?

I'm guessing a lot of it is. Reminds me of the whole Paycoin thing going on late last year -- huge swings of volatility, insane market cap, and eventually after all the excitement died down it came crashing down, followed by a long, arduous bleed out.

Also kind of like BTSX, I guess. The difference being XPY was a pretty obvious scam and has no hope to recover, whereas I expect BTS to make a nice recovery once 2.0 gets closer. I imagine ETH will go through the same motions -- crazy volatility and excitement followed by a long bleed out once that "new car smell" is gone. Followed by another huge pump. And the world keeps on spinning.

Offline CLains

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Falling from IPO and then a big rally? It's typical, and in hindsight not buying at 40 million was a predictable mistake. Three psychological factors made me miss this: 1) I don't have much money atmso I told myself I should take what I got and that I "couldn't" afford the added risk of rebuying, and 2) Deep down I did not want Ethereum to moon above BitShares, finally 3) I told myself the graph was deceptive due to early pricing by VIP Kraken members, instead of being quite accurate in spite of early access by Kraken VIP members.

/end event analysis

Offline Ander

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Falling from IPO and then a big rally? It's typical, and in hindsight not buying at 40 million was a predictable mistake. Three psychological factors made me miss this: 1) I don't have much money atmso I told myself I should take what I got and that I "couldn't" afford the added risk of rebuying, and 2) Deep down I did not want Ethereum to moon above BitShares, finally 3) I told myself the graph was deceptive due to early pricing by VIP Kraken members, instead of being quite accurate in spite of early access by Kraken VIP members.

/end event analysis

I thought it would fall a bit further first, and not bounce quite as much, but there is actually a lot of demand and not as much dumping by holders as I expected.  We'll see what happens after this frenzy is over of course.


In the end it could be good for altcoins.  There is tons of BTC flooding into poloniex, and if ETH stabilizes and drops some, there will be a decent amount of btc floating around there that can go into the other alts.  I wonder if polo might eventually overtake btc38 for volume?  They are already not too far off on some days.
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Offline Erlich Bachman

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In the end it could be good for altcoins.

Of course it is.

Is Ethereum better than bitcoin?'

Of course it is.

Then who cares if they surpass bitcoin before we do.  I hope they pass bitcoin tomorrow.  I've been dying for the world to start talking about what is beyond bitcoin, and get nauseous whenever I hear  the words "blocksize" or "coreXT" .  We all knew that the Bitcoin topics of conversation would be changing to what it is that BTS does, so who cares if Ethereum gets the first mover advantage in the 2.0 space.  The second and third movers will be right there in every news story!

Right now Ethereum is only worth $100,000,000 fiat dollars (pocket change to some)

how much value is that?

We are talking about a global Bitcoin2.0 protocol standards here, where network adoption is paramount

what is that worth (to humanity)?



It's not about how many Ethers or BrowniePoints you have, it's about evolving the global "Blockchain conversation" and Ethereum just taught the world a thing or two about Bitcoin 2.0
« Last Edit: August 13, 2015, 09:26:38 pm by Erlich Bachman »
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Offline Ander

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I think the ETH bounce topped around .008 and is now beginning the dump/bleed down.  Currently .007, we will see.

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