Controversial uses of prediction markets, should we discuss ethical concerns?

[luckybit]

Is Augur crowd sale a good investment you think?

That is a question to ask on the Ethereum forums. Shouldn't we be talking about the Bitshares 2.0 prediction market?

That is a potential future feature I believe, don't think it is part of the 2.0 release so I would think asking the community's opinion on a competing prediction market when you mention it in the OP is alright.

It is part of 2.0 from my understanding, although it might not be a sophisticated as Augur.

[mint chocolate chip]

Is Augur crowd sale a good investment you think?

That is a question to ask on the Ethereum forums. Shouldn't we be talking about the Bitshares 2.0 prediction market?

That is a potential future feature I believe, don't think it is part of the 2.0 release so I would think asking the community's opinion on a competing prediction market when you mention it in the OP is alright.

I'm pretty sure you can implement a prediction market using MPA in Bitshares 2.0.

That is right, the thread that discussed that here had discussions about waiting game settlement after the outcome was determined, is that the Augur approach too?

[clout]

I don't see how there is anything ethically wrong with the example in OP. There is nothing wrong with publicly validating information.

The problem is when a market incentives unethical courses of action (i.e. trying to get a cashier fired or assassinating someone to profit from these markets). Whats most troubling is that this phenomenon would most adversely impact the people that are least likely to be fired or assassinated because the payout would be that much larger.

[clout]

Is Augur crowd sale a good investment you think?

That is a question to ask on the Ethereum forums. Shouldn't we be talking about the Bitshares 2.0 prediction market?

That is a potential future feature I believe, don't think it is part of the 2.0 release so I would think asking the community's opinion on a competing prediction market when you mention it in the OP is alright.

I'm pretty sure you can implement a prediction market using MPA in Bitshares 2.0.

[Troglodactyl]

As a neutral platform, BitShares will enable people to network and collaborate with others more effectively.  I don't think there's a need to cripple it just because some people may use it for things of which we disapprove in the future.

Keep in mind that even the most dreaded "assassination market" application of prediction markets is just as much an opportunity to crowd fund the defense of the person as it is an opportunity to crowd fund the assassination.  At its core, this is a fundamental question about the aggregate nature of humanity.  If you think new technologies that increase human productivity are a net negative because they enable people to produce more misery and suffering, this may not be the community for you.  If you think that technology and increased productivity is generally an improvement and leaves people better off, then check your paranoia and have some appreciation for what this community is building for human empowerment.

[mint chocolate chip]

Is Augur crowd sale a good investment you think?

That is a question to ask on the Ethereum forums. Shouldn't we be talking about the Bitshares 2.0 prediction market?

That is a potential future feature I believe, don't think it is part of the 2.0 release so I would think asking the community's opinion on a competing prediction market when you mention it in the OP is alright.

[Ben Mason]

Perhaps it is possible to define a set of criteria that a prediction market must meet before it can become active. A balance between free speach and enabling morally offensive markets. Consensus can tweak the levels thereafter?

[Akado]

See assassination politics. I think that's the ultimate, most dangerous use for prediction markets. A market for hitmen.

[luckybit]

Is Augur crowd sale a good investment you think?

That is a question to ask on the Ethereum forums. Shouldn't we be talking about the Bitshares 2.0 prediction market?

[mint chocolate chip]

Is Augur crowd sale a good investment you think?

[luckybit]

'Guess the Next Cashier to Be Fired!' Contest Unpopular With Cashiers'
http://gawker.com/5845894/guess-the-next-cashier-to-be-fired-contest-unpopular-with-cashiers

New Contest – Guess The Next Cashier Who Will Be Fired!!!

To win our game, write on a piece of paper the name of the next cashier you believe will be fired. Write their name [the person who will be fired], today's date, today's time, and your name. Seal it in an envelope and give it to the manager to put in my envelope.

"Here's how the game will work: We are doubling our secret-shopper efforts, and your store will be visited during the day and at night several times a week. Secret shoppers will be looking for cashiers wearing a hat, talking on a cell phone, not wearing a QC Mart shirt, having someone hanging around/behind the counter, and/or a personal car parked by the pumps after 7 p.m., among other things.

"If the name in your envelope has the right answer, you will win $10 CASH. Only one winner per firing unless there are multiple right answers with the exact same name, date, and time. Once we fire the person, we will open all the envelopes, award the prize, and start the contest again.

"And no fair picking Mike Miller from (the Rockingham Road store). He was fired at around 11:30 a.m. today for wearing a hat and talking on his cell phone. Good luck!!!!!!!!!!"

That example market was for cashiers, but similarly that kind of prediction market could be used against our community. "Guess which member of the community will be next to be arrested" or similar.

How would we defend ourselves from misuse of prediction markets if it becomes abusive?

These discussions are important to have because Augur is having it's crowd sale, hoping to be the world's first decentralized prediction market, while Bitshares 2.0 will feature a decentralized prediction market capability.

Perhaps as a feature Bitshares 2.0 can be a community regulated prediction market, so that there is moderation? Or would this moderation be damaging to free speech rights?