Augur crowd sale

[luckybit]

Bitshares AGS raised:

Total Donated   5,625.02597337 BTC

But that was during a time when Bitcoins were much higher priced, much more valuable. Raising 10,000 Bitcoins when Bitcoins are this cheap and during the XT/Core uncertainty is not much of an accomplishment in my opinion.

On the other hand if Bitcoin price goes up to $1000 a Bitcoin and they raise 5000+ Bitcoins, that is over $5 million dollars.

An important number to look at is the number of accounts. Augur has something like 3544 accounts? How many people could that be?

One thing I like a lot about the AGS model is that it lasted for 199 days. For those of us who don't have a lot of money, it gave us all an opportunity to donate.  The crowd sale models which only last a month and which ask for millions of dollars, these favor people who are rich, or who have a lot of Bitcoins saved up to dump into a crowd sale.

[luckybit]

Augur is raising a lot.  thoughts?

https://sale.augur.net/

They are, but the Reputation tokens are over priced right now. I wouldn't buy them at these prices.

Wait until they get dumped and buy in later. If you have BTS then you probably could just wait until BTS builds a decentralized prediction market service or just own a stake in the inevitable competitors to Augur which have a more clear and better crowd sale mechanism.

Augur from what I see has no advantage over any other group of developers who decide to take their algorithms and do the same thing. We'll probably see prediction markets everyhwere, on Bitcoin, Truthcoin, Bitshares, NXT, SAFE Network, Tauchain/Agoras, Omni, because the algorithms to set it up are already available and any group of developers can reverse engineer the code easily.

If you're trading stocks it's often a bad idea to buy into the hype. Augur has hype, but it doesn't actually have a final product. They also aren't offering the Gini coefficient so you don't even know the distribution of the tokens, so it's possible some super whale has over a million tokens and can dump them right after the sale. Due to the nature of the sale it's also hard to predict the percentage share you'll have in Rep.

In my opinion one of the most fair crowd sales we've ever had was AGS. While there was some problem with the last minute incentive to trade PTS for AGS, the actual design of the incentives was perfect. Everyone had an opportunity to get Bitshares for a reasonable price, and while some people had better days than others, it was fair in that you could see the daily trends.

The Augur crowd sale is weird. I've never seen any crowd sale like it, and it's so far from the norm that it's not easy to know what you'll get in the end. They might raise more money this way but you don't know enough information in my opinion for it to be considered good or bad.

[jaran]

Augur is raising a lot.  thoughts?

https://sale.augur.net/