Author Topic: BTS & Prediction Markets, looking at Augur...  (Read 5344 times)

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Offline Empirical1.2

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Re: BTS & Prediction Markets, looking at Augur...
« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2015, 01:33:10 pm »
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According to numerous gambling industry experts, Augur will probably surpass all major gambling platforms in the near future.

http://uk.casinorelease.com/augur-will-probably-surpass-all-major-online-gambling-platforms

The link in your quote links the exact same article. What industry experts? I mean, that article doesn't mention who those industry experts are or some kind of study, plus it may well be biased. Like it is, it seems like a hype article. I would love to see a study on that as I'm very curious about it but the link redirects to the exact same page....

Apologies it was 3 am in the morning. I don't know who the 'experts' are they're referring too. There are a few industry relevant testimonials on the Augur home page though.

What I do know is that the last major disruptor to gambling was Betfair in 2000. 

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In the gambling sector, the best-known example of disruptive change since 2000 has been the emergence of Betfair, which has delighted consumers and rankled bookmakers. To date, the only effective defense against letting exchange wagering take hold in America has been to try and declare it illegal for as long as possible. But that might not be possible with Augur, which plans to set its bet takeout at an astoundingly low 1% while offering complete anonymity to its users

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/could-augur-shift-more-than-the-betting-paradigm/

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The price alone should give Nevada sportsbook operators pause; an estimated one percent of every pot will go to keep the system running. The average vig today is about 10 times that. Augur isn't a full-fledged casino. You can't play roulette or poker, and running lotto on the platform would be tricky. But it'll be great for sports betting.

https://reason.com/blog/2015/08/11/augur-gambling-prediction-ethereum

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Betfair Group plc is the world's largest Internet betting exchange

Betfair claims on average 20 percent better odds than those offered by a traditional bookmaker.[11] Betfair charges a commission on all winning bets, which is set at 5 percent of the net winnings for most markets,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betfair


So even compared to Betfair, Augur will offer a really huge saving by comparison and be accessible virtually everywhere. This is why most think it could be even more disruptive than BetFair.

Augur Weaknesses...

- Some prediction market like Intrade had limited success. They enjoyed a lot of action on large political questions like presidential elections where they did a few hundred million turnover but were fairly quiet otherwise.

- Speed of outcomes & liquidity.

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Even though horse race betting is theoretically do-able, it’s likely to be awhile before Augur evolves into a serious threat to the pari-mutuel system.First there is the obvious problem of Augur’s markets not being liquid enough to compete. They certainly won’t be at first. But like any emerging paradigm, if Augur is appealing and robust enough, users will eventually flock to it. When U.S. racing first switched from betting via bookmakers to pari-mutuels in the early 20th Century, liquidity was a concern cited by early detractors. Eventually, pari-mutuels became the established platform. Then there is the difficulty of the lag time involved in reporting results by consensus

However it looks like Augur will be using some form of automated market making to address liquidity, this is linked to from Augur.net

"Automated market maker for accurate predictions (small bid-ask spreads)"  http://blog.oddhead.com/2010/07/08/why-automated-market-makers/

The Augur video has already had  189000 views. They have >5000 on their update mailing list. They raised >$5 million and their is a market for REP on Gatecoin that currently values Augur at circa $19 million I think.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2015, 01:52:59 pm by Empirical1.2 »
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Offline topcandle

Re: BTS & Prediction Markets, looking at Augur...
« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2015, 01:54:51 pm »
I thought Intrade was a very successful business until they got shut down.  Remember that they were starting to gain traction and had been used on cnbc at times.  Plus intrade charged a monthly subscription fee (which turned me off). 
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Offline Empirical1.2

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Re: BTS & Prediction Markets, looking at Augur...
« Reply #17 on: March 16, 2016, 08:39:11 pm »
What currency does Augur betting volume actually flow through?

If it's similar to what TruthCoin was proposing and REP only receives 0.5-1% of each bet then a BitUSD based version on BTS would be much more valuable. (Would you rather own REP that received 1% in fees from $1 Billion worth of betting or would you rather own the share through which all the betting volume was flowing?)

I have a feeling that having the trading volume coming into a 0% inflation share system starting from a low cap, while the product/service is in it's growth cycle (which could last years) is > than a lot/all of 1% transaction fees.

Example: Truthcoin is planning to let people bet in Bitcoin but charge 1% transaction fees which gets paid to Truthcoin holders. 
But I'm wondering whether if they had $100 million in trading volume going into Truthcoin instead over the course of the year (which would start from a low market cap) how much of the $1 million in fees they were planning to charge they could offset?

If the betting volume flows through another currency other than REP then a BTS based fork, using BitUSD as the betting unit could potentially gain a much higher value with a fraction of the betting volume.

Similar to the BitAsset yield proposal, while the prediction market is in the growth phase, BTS could pay more to 'judges' and charge less than 1% because it is benefiting from BTS for BitUSD demand. (REP would receive $10 million from $1 Billion worth of betting if the betting volume flowed through another unit, while BTS (BitUSD) would receive the benefit of $1 billion in betting volume.)

REP currently values Augur at $180 million  (Though it's probably over-valued due to small amount of IOU trading)

(Other thought: If Augur/Eth doesn't have a dollar stable currency yet, maybe we can offer Augur based PM's for BitUSD. Whoever becomes the de facto betting unit will probably benefit more than REP if REP isn't actually the betting unit.)
« Last Edit: March 16, 2016, 09:03:17 pm by Empirical1.2 »
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Offline Akado

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Re: BTS & Prediction Markets, looking at Augur...
« Reply #18 on: March 16, 2016, 09:20:04 pm »
Why not just replicate every single market that exists on Augur here on BitShares? It will bring in more people looking for better odds, plus we have smartcoins.

Then people will get used to using both and our markets will gain volume too. You just plant a few seeds here and there on the forums "But on BTS that market is paying X for outcome B", etc. People should naturally come and check it out.
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Offline Empirical1.2

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Re: BTS & Prediction Markets, looking at Augur...
« Reply #19 on: March 16, 2016, 09:39:58 pm »
Why not just replicate every single market that exists on Augur here on BitShares? It will bring in more people looking for better odds, plus we have smartcoins.

Then people will get used to using both and our markets will gain volume too. You just plant a few seeds here and there on the forums "But on BTS that market is paying X for outcome B", etc. People should naturally come and check it out.

 +5% Yeah that's an option and I think we'll benefit a lot more from the BitAsset volume than just the fees.

However if they've got a great familiar layout, are the most popular and handle the judging for 1% then it might be better for us to start offering markets in BitUSD on their platform if that's possible? Imo the real winner will be the decentralised dollar stable currency that becomes the defacto betting unit across the majority of Augur markets. In which case we only have to focus on providing a great BitUSD all collaterlized by BTS.

I think they may already have a solution to that though, haven't looked into them lately, just saw the price spike and it got me thinking about it again.

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Offline fuzzy

Re: BTS & Prediction Markets, looking at Augur...
« Reply #20 on: March 17, 2016, 03:56:08 am »
I think we need both gambling and prediction markets.

and bond market. problem is we can't have everything at the same time. We should define what would be the most important thing for BitShares. Then once the GUI is ready we would move onto it.

Actually I bet if we used our workers to pay top dollar for good work, we could get MANY things done over the course of a couple years....
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Re: BTS & Prediction Markets, looking at Augur...
« Reply #21 on: March 17, 2016, 01:45:12 pm »
I think we need both gambling and prediction markets.

and bond market. problem is we can't have everything at the same time. We should define what would be the most important thing for BitShares. Then once the GUI is ready we would move onto it.

Actually I bet if we used our workers to pay top dollar for good work, we could get MANY things done over the course of a couple years....

I couldn't agree with you more.

Offline btswildpig

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Re: BTS & Prediction Markets, looking at Augur...
« Reply #22 on: March 17, 2016, 02:08:15 pm »
I think we need both gambling and prediction markets.

and bond market. problem is we can't have everything at the same time. We should define what would be the most important thing for BitShares. Then once the GUI is ready we would move onto it.

Actually I bet if we used our workers to pay top dollar for good work, we could get MANY things done over the course of a couple years....

you should put in more money to support the bet , otherwise it's not a bet .

I bet the big thing could happened with BTS in August-October 2014 , and I brought a lot , that was a lost bet . Nonetheless , it was a bet .

SO...do you want to act on the bet ?
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Offline zorges

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Re: BTS & Prediction Markets, looking at Augur...
« Reply #23 on: November 23, 2017, 08:48:01 am »

So atm people would prefer Bond or Prediction markets? I'm curious. What do you think would bring in more liquidity? I would go with bond markets. Augur already has all the media, etc, it would be a waste to build something and compete atm. Bond markets make more sense imo.

Its a good question.  I'm thinking Bond markets are the harder of the two to deploy and has greater chance of failure than prediction markets.  We haven't seen bond markets done in a decentralized manner.  Although to do Votecoin/REP style PM's would be more difficult than bond markets. 

So I'm not sure.  A PM would bring many eyes towards Bitshares because of the countless questions being asked.  Coupled with referral it could be quite viral. 

Bond+PMs+ Referral = Next big thing.

We should go with whatever brings more liquidity.

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According to numerous gambling industry experts, Augur will probably surpass all major gambling platforms in the near future.

http://uk.casinorelease.com/augur-will-probably-surpass-all-major-online-gambling-platforms

The link in your quote links the exact same article. What industry experts? I mean, that article doesn't mention who those industry experts are or some kind of study, plus it may well be biased. Like it is, it seems like a hype article. I would love to see a study on that as I'm very curious about it but the link redirects to the exact same page....
I don't see big difference between sport's betting and casino games too,

Offline Cur_tis

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Re: BTS & Prediction Markets, looking at Augur...
« Reply #24 on: November 27, 2017, 08:09:53 am »

I don't see big difference between sport's betting and casino games too,
Cool, I want to try

Offline Erlina

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Re: BTS & Prediction Markets, looking at Augur...
« Reply #25 on: April 20, 2018, 07:02:12 am »

Offline rebekahstaley89

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Re: BTS & Prediction Markets, looking at Augur...
« Reply #26 on: April 03, 2019, 11:34:17 am »
I don't see difference between sport's betting and [https://www.allcasinosite.com/]casino[/url] games

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Re: BTS & Prediction Markets, looking at Augur...
« Reply #27 on: April 03, 2019, 12:23:21 pm »
Anyone has a link to a prediction market website that you consider having good UX?