BitShares Lotto

[SatoshiFantasy]

I think we simply make it a market for data feeds.   Have someone produce a data feed that the network uses.  Every time a transaction references that data-feed, the owner of the feed gets a cut of the transaction fees.   Now market participants can place bets according to the feed.

Isn't this centralized with a singe point of failure?  One idea is to use a PoS Consensus transaction, where the data from the feed becomes valid only after it is signed by majority stake.

No it is free market competition.  There can be many data feeds and anyone can start a business producing the feed.  The bet odds will factor in the probability that the feed is corrupt.   Market incentives are for honest feeds.

And there will of course be multiple feeds for the same event.  John_SuperBowl_Feed, Jim_SuperBowl_Feed, Sam_SuperBowl_Feed.  The bettors could set it up to require X% of feeds in agreement, or else the bet is cancelled.

Of course then you have potential conflict-of-interest where somebody with a large losing bet goes to John and Jim and offers to pay them off if they provide the wrong info in their feeds.  So the betting system needs some kind of built-in payment to the feed providers (which can be specified when setting up the bet) to keep them honest.  They would rather get a cut of 10% of the total bets made, than a big payoff from some losing bettor.

i don't know the context here, but at some point, the after the fact data "results" needs to be unanimous or else there is a fork. especially if its binary (bool) data.

or is each provider his own "broker" to both sides of the trade?

I really think that the problems/solutions regarding feeds is specific to the DAS (system), and cannot be generalized.  If there is a solution in BitShares then its a feature of bts, and cannot be abstracted for implementation in NXT  or Ether for example.

[bitbadger]

I think we simply make it a market for data feeds.   Have someone produce a data feed that the network uses.  Every time a transaction references that data-feed, the owner of the feed gets a cut of the transaction fees.   Now market participants can place bets according to the feed.

Isn't this centralized with a singe point of failure?  One idea is to use a PoS Consensus transaction, where the data from the feed becomes valid only after it is signed by majority stake.

No it is free market competition.  There can be many data feeds and anyone can start a business producing the feed.  The bet odds will factor in the probability that the feed is corrupt.   Market incentives are for honest feeds.

And there will of course be multiple feeds for the same event.  John_SuperBowl_Feed, Jim_SuperBowl_Feed, Sam_SuperBowl_Feed.  The bettors could set it up to require X% of feeds in agreement, or else the bet is cancelled.

Of course then you have potential conflict-of-interest where somebody with a large losing bet goes to John and Jim and offers to pay them off if they provide the wrong info in their feeds.  So the betting system needs some kind of built-in payment to the feed providers (which can be specified when setting up the bet) to keep them honest.  They would rather get a cut of 10% of the total bets made, than a big payoff from some losing bettor.

[bytemaster]

I think we simply make it a market for data feeds.   Have someone produce a data feed that the network uses.  Every time a transaction references that data-feed, the owner of the feed gets a cut of the transaction fees.   Now market participants can place bets according to the feed.

Isn't this centralized with a singe point of failure?  One idea is to use a PoS Consensus transaction, where the data from the feed becomes valid only after it is signed by majority stake.

No it is free market competition.  There can be many data feeds and anyone can start a business producing the feed.  The bet odds will factor in the probability that the feed is corrupt.   Market incentives are for honest feeds.

[SatoshiFantasy]

I think we simply make it a market for data feeds.   Have someone produce a data feed that the network uses.  Every time a transaction references that data-feed, the owner of the feed gets a cut of the transaction fees.   Now market participants can place bets according to the feed.

Isn't this centralized with a singe point of failure?  One idea is to use a PoS Consensus transaction, where the data from the feed becomes valid only after it is signed by majority stake.

[JakeThePanda]

I may be way off base with this, but my concern as a U.S. citizen is the government making a case that every holder of BitsharesLotto is considered an illegal gambling operator.

Is there a way to incorporate code for anonymous transactions like Darkcoin or Zerocoin?  I would hate for the government to track down large holders and start prosecuting.  Please tell me I'm wrong.

[HackFisher]

[Regarding BitShares Bingo vs BitShares Lotto]

They are separate dacs, lotto is simpler and will come first

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For ease of implementation and competition, I'm guessing BitShares Lotto is basically decentralized satoshidice except the only house edge is the transaction fees?

Essentially correct.

I think we are tending to build something slightly different from satoshidice. Lotto is more like traditional lotto ticket. The rule of traditional lotto ticket can be described as following:

Different country have different rules, in China, because lottery business is monopoly, the rules are simple as following:
pre-section(Red Ball) is to select 5 different numbers from 35 numbers, and post-section(Blue Ball) is to select 2 different numbers for 12 numbers, pre-section and post-section are two independent events, and there are 8 level prizes with different lucky chance.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lottery#Probability_of_winning

[bytemaster]

I think we simply make it a market for data feeds.   Have someone produce a data feed that the network uses.  Every time a transaction references that data-feed, the owner of the feed gets a cut of the transaction fees.   Now market participants can place bets according to the feed.

BM yes, man.  Here we go BitShares Vegas!
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Now all we need is a turing complete scripting language to place arbitrary bets referencing multiple feeds.

Python.

Are you sure we need the Full Monty? 

[luckybit]

I think we simply make it a market for data feeds.   Have someone produce a data feed that the network uses.  Every time a transaction references that data-feed, the owner of the feed gets a cut of the transaction fees.   Now market participants can place bets according to the feed.

BM yes, man.  Here we go BitShares Vegas!
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Now all we need is a turing complete scripting language to place arbitrary bets referencing multiple feeds.

Python.

[bytemaster]

I think we simply make it a market for data feeds.   Have someone produce a data feed that the network uses.  Every time a transaction references that data-feed, the owner of the feed gets a cut of the transaction fees.   Now market participants can place bets according to the feed.

BM yes, man.  Here we go BitShares Vegas!
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Now all we need is a turing complete scripting language to place arbitrary bets referencing multiple feeds.

[bitbro]

I think we simply make it a market for data feeds.   Have someone produce a data feed that the network uses.  Every time a transaction references that data-feed, the owner of the feed gets a cut of the transaction fees.   Now market participants can place bets according to the feed.

BM yes, man.  Here we go BitShares Vegas!


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[bytemaster]

I think we simply make it a market for data feeds.   Have someone produce a data feed that the network uses.  Every time a transaction references that data-feed, the owner of the feed gets a cut of the transaction fees.   Now market participants can place bets according to the feed.

[HackFisher]

Anyone want to start BitShares Vegas with me?  Involves defining bets and determining winners - winners are determined by moderators.  Moderators have reputation and ratings.  Moderators also approve, disapprove bets when they are proposed.


Example.  Person A submits a bet that eagles win the Super Bowl by 3 or more.  100 moderators approve the bet.  Now other people either take the accept the bet or bet on top of eagles by 3.  When the super bowl is finished the moderators vote on the winner and the winnings are paid out.

Thoughts?




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The gameplay rule is interesting which is very similar to a poker game I played with my friends, we call it "Brag".

But there are two problems need confirm, first, how to represent real world Future Events (like that eagles win the Super Bowl by 3) in a DAC, for me, I would like to use something technically like random_hash(next_x_ btc_block_info) to replace it as Future Event.

Second, like the game "Brag", I prefer the next player should eight be the moderator to accept A's bet and join A to increase winnings, or deny A's bet by raising counter party, loop and over and over , waiting for the result of Future Event.

[CWEvans]

Anyone want to start BitShares Vegas with me?  Involves defining bets and determining winners - winners are determined by moderators.  Moderators have reputation and ratings.  Moderators also approve, disapprove bets when they are proposed.


Example.  Person A submits a bet that eagles win the Super Bowl by 3 or more.  100 moderators approve the bet.  Now other people either take the accept the bet or bet on top of eagles by 3.  When the super bowl is finished the moderators vote on the winner and the winnings are paid out.

Thoughts?

Solving this problem with a DAC would be nice, but your solution (moderators, voting, ratings) are not a viable approach.  Find an alternative way of solving these problems.

Use a prediction market to set the opening line and then have the system move the line dynamically, so that it evenly divides the bets?

[bitbro]

Anyone want to start BitShares Vegas with me?  Involves defining bets and determining winners - winners are determined by moderators.  Moderators have reputation and ratings.  Moderators also approve, disapprove bets when they are proposed.


Example.  Person A submits a bet that eagles win the Super Bowl by 3 or more.  100 moderators approve the bet.  Now other people either take the accept the bet or bet on top of eagles by 3.  When the super bowl is finished the moderators vote on the winner and the winnings are paid out.

Thoughts?

Solving this problem with a DAC would be nice, but your solution (moderators, voting, ratings) are not a viable approach.  Find an alternative way of solving these problems.

Can't you make a sports betting DAC that doesn't require moderators/voting/ratings, by doing it a similar way to prediction markets?

You just say we are using a scale of 0-100, with intervals of 1, each 1 represents 1%.

A market price of 0 means there's 0% chance of the event happening.
(Ie. Eagles lost) A value of close to 100 means the event is certain to happen or has already happened.

Someone creates the Bet 'Superbowl final 2014, Eagles to win'

He thinks there's greater than 60% chance Eagles will win so he takes a long position at 60. Someone else thinks it's less likely so they go short at 60 and a 'trade' occurs. Then the price moves from there, depending on the market. With 5 minutes to go, the Eagles up by 8, people may only be willing to go short at 93. (I.e the person going short at a market price of 93, thinks there's a greater than 7% chance Eagles will lose.) After the game if Eagles win there should be no-one willing to go short as everyone would take the other side of the trade.

If the price is greater than 90 or lower than 10 and no new trades have been made for a set period 1 day? then the event will be considered over by the system and the trades will pay out. (Above 90 people long the event would get paid out below 10 people shorting that event would get paid out.)

The person going long at 60 would have to post 60x the size of his 'interval bet' in case the team lost.
So he might go long 1$ per % so if they win he would make $40, if they lose he would lose $60.

There would be a small fee paid to shareholders but much cheaper than betting services.

Would something like that work?

Love it.  Gonna need to think on it a bit.  Maybe BM has input


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[bitbro]

Actually there is another variation of Sports Betting number game. The mechanic is so simple. At the end of each NBA game or any other score oriented sports, it will take the ones digit of final score for both winner and loser. Let say the final score was 105-97. the winning number combination would be 5 - 7 in that particular order and game. In our country it is what we call "ending" .

True, but I think there's a huge market for betting on winners/losers.  Would definitely like to solve this.


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