Author Topic: Initial price for a XTS  (Read 27519 times)

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Offline Simeon II

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so all in all we agree that irrespective of no of coins the total market cap should be $40 - $75 mil upon launching...I hope that we are all on the same page here to believe that it should be at least $100 mil by the end of the year especially if Bitcoin gets pumped

I obviously disagree - 2 to 15 Mil is my prediction.

Offline mf-tzo

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Quote
First – The bet is of the table now! Let that be clear.

I was trying to make several points .
It is one thing to make estimations, it is totally deferent if you have to put your money where your mouth is (i.e. buy/sell at those prices). Do not take it personally, it is human nature.
Several factors are in play for the initial price (most not in favor of BTS). So taking the highest price that PTS ever was, when you must be fully aware of the reasons driving the price up at that moment, and to use those prices as a starting point of calculating BTS initial price is pretty optimistic. I personally see the initial price/capitalization at a range of 2X PTS to 1/3 PTS (meaning 2 to 15 Mil capitalization)

How do you say that? Based on the current PTS price? Shouldn't you value the investment at the PTS price back then? Back then Bitshares was valued 30-60 mil and bitcoin was ranging from $600-$1,200. So assuming bitcoin same price now of $600 the market cap should no way be less than 30 mil taking into account all the improvements so far and the time we have locked our profits...If people sell below that and realise their losses then I don't think BTS will have much of the future...

Offline mf-tzo

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so all in all we agree that irrespective of no of coins the total market cap should be $40 - $75 mil upon launching...I hope that we are all on the same page here to believe that it should be at least $100 mil by the end of the year especially if Bitcoin gets pumped

Offline Simeon II

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dream on with your buying price . Our BTS will surely be much higher than what you have just estimated. ::)

I agree. I think the market cap will be $50-75 million myself to start.

But that doesn't mean I want to buy from Simeon @ 30 million, though he is probably an honest guy.

But his account was created mid-May and XTS was allocated at the end of Feb.
1% is also a very big stake/investment to have made...
Also to jump on and try sell it (much too eagerly) for a low valuation when I didn't ask specifically to buy from someone off-market, makes me think he wants to keep the perception low so he can buy more too.
If you did have a big stake his actions seem illogical. But I don't know.

First – The bet is of the table now! Let that be clear.

I was trying to make several points .
It is one thing to make estimations, it is totally deferent if you have to put your money where your mouth is (i.e. buy/sell at those prices). Do not take it personally, it is human nature.
Several factors are in play for the initial price (most not in favor of BTS). So taking the highest price that PTS ever was, when you must be fully aware of the reasons driving the price up at that moment, and to use those prices as a starting point of calculating BTS initial price is pretty optimistic. I personally see the initial price/capitalization at a range of 2X PTS to 1/3 PTS (meaning 2 to 15 Mil capitalization)
So, all in all, BTS may go to  trillions someday, but this will be some day in the more distant future.

As for my side of the story – I have a lot of paper losses and missed opportunities ever since I  invested in Bitshares. What is worse, I envision even more of those in the near future. So locking my profits/losses at near 0 is not the worse deal for me... :)

Offline Empirical1

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dream on with your buying price . Our BTS will surely be much higher than what you have just estimated. ::)

I agree. I think the market cap will be $50-75 million myself to start.

But that doesn't mean I want to buy from Simeon @ 30 million, though he is probably an honest guy.

But his account was created mid-May and XTS was allocated at the end of Feb.
1% is also a very big stake/investment to have made...
Also to jump on and try sell it (much too eagerly) for a low valuation when I didn't ask specifically to buy from someone off-market, makes me think he wants to keep the perception low so he can buy more too.
If you did have a big stake his actions seem illogical. But I don't know.
« Last Edit: July 03, 2014, 08:43:36 am by Empirical1 »

Offline xeroc

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dream on with your buying price . Our BTS will surely be much higher than what you have just estimated. ::)
Hug? How that?

To my calculations .. having 2 billion XTS each worth 20$ .. that totals $40 billion ... more than 4 times the total market cap of ALL coins .. that's sure not gonna happen

IMHO a realistic price would be around $0.025 per XTS

Offline jwiz168

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dream on with your buying price . Our BTS will surely be much higher than what you have just estimated. ::)

Offline Simeon II

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Sure.
PM me if you change your mind.

Offline Empirical1

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What % do you want me to put now?
20% OK?  (I can put 100% if you do not intend to go close to 1% of total shares).

Tell me how big you wanna go and I will offer you decent security deposit too.

Im pretty sure I will buy more on the market if it's trading < $30 million after launch.

But I will not take your bet/offer. Thanks.

Offline Simeon II

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What % do you want me to put now?
20% OK?  (I can put 100% if you do not intend to go close to 1% of total shares).

Tell me how big you wanna go and I will offer you decent security deposit too.
« Last Edit: July 03, 2014, 03:28:08 am by Simeon II »

Offline Empirical1

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I think there will be 2 Billion XTS now. (2 000 000 000)

...............

so $30 million CAP divided by 2 000 000 000 = $0.015 per XTS ?

Sure,
at what price are you willing to buy ($amount/ %stake)

I don't understand. Won't the bet involve too much trust from me?

I can give BTC to an escrow now. But you won't have XTS to trade till it is launched.

So if when XTS is launched the XTS price is high you just won't send me the XTS...?
(But if the XTS CAP is lower than 30 mil then you will be happy to send it and take my BTC from escrow..)

« Last Edit: July 03, 2014, 03:19:37 am by Empirical1 »

Offline Simeon II

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I think there will be 2 Billion XTS now. (2 000 000 000)

...............

so $30 million CAP divided by 2 000 000 000 = $0.015 per XTS ?

Sure,
at what price are you willing to buy ($amount/ %stake)
« Last Edit: July 03, 2014, 03:04:35 am by Simeon II »

Offline Empirical1

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Your math - @ 30 Mil cap (and 2 or 4 mil shares), one share is:
$15/$7.5 per share not $0.015...


But BTW I offered you a bet at the correct numbers.



Anyway it's all good  :)...  if your money are not where your mouth is  :)

I think there will be 2 Billion XTS now. (2 000 000 000)

There are 2 billion XTS and 2 million PTS and PTS represents only 50% of XTS... so I would say something like  2*PTS_PRICE/1000 as a baseline and then adjust for other factors such as:

1) there exists a working product
2) it is DPOS
3) it represents shares in X vs everything but X.

so $30 million CAP divided by 2 000 000 000 = $0.015 per XTS ?

(But each of the BTS you see on AGS explorer is when there 4 000 000. 2 000 000 000 divided by 4 000 000 = 500 and 500x$0.015 = $7.5, so at a 30 milllion CAP the original XTS would be $7.5 each.)

I still think that's right, but it is 4 am here.   
« Last Edit: July 03, 2014, 03:03:11 am by Empirical1 »

Offline Simeon II

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Your math - @ 30 Mil cap (and 2 or 4 mil shares), one share is:
$15/$7.5 per share not $0.015...


But BTW I offered you a bet at the correct numbers.



Anyway it's all good  :)...  if your money are not where your mouth is  :)

Offline Empirical1

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Up to the 28th of Feb 1 PTS = c1.3 XTS and 1 PTS was ranging between $15 - $20 if I remember correctly... 

Therefore 1 XTS at that time should have been c$11 - $16.

The market has valued Bitshares BACK THEN a market cap of $44 mil - $64 mil before even having a finished product.

After all these delays and all these amazing improvements with DPOS. The initial market cap of Bitshares shouldn't be less than at least $80 mil and I think I am pessimistic here...Otherwise our long term investment in Bitshares was not a good one and we should have invested in NXT (that doesn't make sense sorry)

Concluding 1 XTS should not be less than $20 each (calculation based on 4 million PTS / AGS).

I looked at coinmarketcap and PTS was valued at $25 million before the snapshot and $10 million after.
As PTS makes up 50% of XTS. I would think that means the market was valuing BitShares X @ circa $30 Million?

Is that right?

If that's the case, I think the market should be valuing it at, at least

$30 Million divided by 2 Billion XTS = $0.015 per share.

(Or $7.5 x amount of BTS you have listed on AGS explorer)

Obviously the valuation should be much higher now for multiple reasons, personally I'm kind of hoping there will be some people that need to sell because it's been a while since the snapshot and I want to buy moarrrrr...  :)


Leaving aside that you math is wrong …with just a few decimal positions.

Do you want to make a bet?

Tell me what % of BTS XT you want to buy at $30 Mil market capitalization. (1% will be worth about $300,000; 0.1% will be $30,000 etc.; 0.001% will be $300)

The bet is the following:
- You will publish the percentage you want to buy at $30 Mil market cap. Then you will transfer the amount to an escrow that we both agree on.
- I will send the # shares equal to the % you wanted to buy (for you to withdraw) and I will get all the money in the escrow.
-Additionally, I will transfer your shares  in 15 days or less after BTS X become liquid.

Sounds fair?

P.S. The bet is open to anybody having $30 mil capitalization expectations and wanting to buy less than 1%.

I didn't say I would be buying at $30 million CAP  :) I said I think that according to my maths that it should be at least that but I'm hoping as it's been so long people will want/need to sell. At what price I'd be buying will depend on many factors, for one according to you, it seems I need some better calculations :) (Also I know as a gambler usually when someone is very eager to make a bet, then chances are I must be very wrong...  ;D )

Please help me with my maths  :'( I asked 'Is that right?' 
« Last Edit: July 03, 2014, 02:46:50 am by Empirical1 »