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Offline CLains

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The dollar will collapse at some point though in the future

I find my attention drawn to this topic lately.. In Norway, it seems suspicious that everybody and their Uncle is investing in the housing market. How does that create wealth? It is an empty investment that does not create much value, and still forces the price up for the average guy. I would like to know, in a traditional hyperinflation scenario, what are the things that rise in a value first, and which last?

When Money Dies
by Adam Fergusson

Classic:  http://www.amazon.com/s/?ie=UTF8&keywords=fergusson+when+money+dies&tag=googhydr-20&index=stripbooks&hvadid=39339897410&hvpos=1t1&hvexid=&hvnetw=s&hvrand=10235508638419750691&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=b&hvdev=c&ref=pd_sl_7m33mv56e1_b

Condensed version in pdf:

F e b r u a r y 9 , 2 0 0 9 T h e A m e r i c a n C o n s e r v a t i v e
Code: [Select]
F e b r u a r y 9 , 2 0 0 9 T h e A m e r i c a n C o n s e r v a t i v e 9
From wise friends to obscure websites,
we’d heard rumors that it exists.
But tracking down When Money Dies,
the definitive 1975 text on hyperinflation
in Weimar Germany, is another
matter entirely. Amazon lists a copy
for $2,500. The Library of Congress
declares it on perpetual “internal
loan.” The publisher is out of business.
But we eventually located Adam Fergusson
in London, and he graciously
gave TAC permission to condense his
classic. Even in abridged form, its literary
grace and historical insight are
apparent. So too its modern relevance.
THE AGONY OF INFLATION is similar
to acute pain—demanding complete
attention while it lasts; forgotten or
ignorable when it has gone, whatever
scars it may leave behind. Some such
explanation may apply to the strange
way in which the remarkable episode
of the Weimar inflation has been
divorced from contemporary incident.
This is not an economic study. This is
a morality tale. It goes far to prove the
revolutionary axiom that if you wish to
destroy a nation you must first corrupt
its currency. Thus must sound money be
the first bastion of a society’s defense.
In 1913, the German mark, British
shilling, French franc, and Italian lira
were all worth about the same, and
four or five were worth about a dollar.
By 1923, it would have been possible to
exchange a shilling, a franc, or a lira for
up to 1,000,000,000,000 marks, although
no one was willing to take marks for
anything.
The inflation was so preposterous
that the story has tended to be passed
off more as a historical curiosity than
the culmination of economic, social,
and political circumstance of permanent
significance. It matters little that
the causes of the Weimar inflation are
unrepeatable, that political conditions
are different, that it is almost inconceivable
that financial chaos would
again be allowed to develop so far. The
danger to be recognized is how inflation,
however caused, affects a nation:
its government, its people, its society.
If what happened to the defeated
Central Powers in the early 1920s is
anything to go by, then the process of
collapse of the trusted medium of
exchange, the currency by which all
values are measured, by which social
status is guaranteed, upon which security
depends, and in which the fruits of
labor are stored, unleashes such greed,
violence, and hatred, largely bred from
fear, as no society can survive uncrippled.
Certainly 1922 and 1923 brought
catastrophe to the German bourgeoisie,
as well as hunger, disease, destitution,
and sometimes death to an
even wider public. Yet any people
might have ridden out those years had
they represented one frightful storm in
an otherwise calm passage. What most
damaged the morale was that they
were the climax of unreality to years of
unimagined strain.
To ascribe the despair entirely to
inflation would be misleading.
Undoubtedly, though, inflation aggravated
every evil, ruined every chance of
national revival or individual success,
and produced the conditions in which
extremists could raise the mob against
the state. It undermined national resolution
when simple want might have
bolstered it. Partly because of its
unfairly discriminatory nature, it
brought out the worst in everybody. It
caused fear and insecurity among
those who had already known too
much of both. It fostered xenophobia.
It promoted contempt of government
and the subversion of law and order. It
corrupted where corruption had been
unknown, and often where it should
have been impossible.
Before 1914, the credit policy of the
Reichsbank had been governed by the
Bank Law of 1875, whereby not less
than one-third of the note issue had to
be covered by gold and the remainder
by three-month discount bills adequately
guaranteed. In August 1914,
action was taken both to pay for the
war and to protect the country’s gold
reserves. The latter objective was
achieved by the simple device of suspending
the redemption of Reichsbank
notes in gold. The former was contrived
by setting up loan banks whose
funds were to be provided simply by
printing them. The loan banks would
give credits to business, to the Federal
states, to the municipalities, and to the
new war corporations.
Thus were the government’s plans
drawn up for financing the war—not by
taxation but by borrowing, with the
printing press as the well to supply
When Money Dies
Brother, can you spare a million marks?
By Adam Fergusson
10 T h e A m e r i c a n C o n s e r v a t i v e F e b r u a r y 9 , 2 0 0 9
both the needs of government and the
credit demand for private business.
Only when the war was over, with the
veil of censorship lifted, did it become
clear that Germany had met an economic
disaster nearly as shattering as
her military one. Within a few months
of the Armistice, the elements were
present for the most devastating monetary
collapse that any industrialized
nation has ever known. Her industrial
resources and manpower heavily
reduced, and hopelessly burdened with
the insupportable weight of reparation
payments, Germany was required to
regain her feet in quicksands of her
own making.
The state of the mark became the
barometer both of international confidence
in Germany and national despair.
Before the war, it had stood at 20 to the
pound sterling. At the end of the war, it
stood at 43. Before the terms of the
Treaty of Versailles were accepted in
June 1919, a pound would buy 60
marks. But when December came
around again, it would buy 185.
***
“The delirium of milliards [i.e., billions]”
was a phrase of Foreign Minister
Walter Rathenau’s coining. “The
majority of statesmen and financiers
think in terms of paper,” he wrote.
“They sit in their offices and look at
papers … and on those papers are written
figures which again represent
papers. … A milliard comes easily and
trippingly to the tongue, but no one can
imagine a milliard. … Does a wood
contain a milliard leaves? Are there a
milliard blades of grass in a meadow?”
Rathenau diagnosed that delirium as
an affliction not of the people in general—
that was to come—but of those
who were supposedly in control of the
country’s finances, who had raised the
note circulation since the beginning of
the year from 73 milliard marks to 80
milliard. The mark, at 310 to the pound
in mid-August, had sped downwards to
over 400 by mid-September, and was
still going down.
The disease, the German financial
world seemed to agree, was not containable
without international goodwill and
a significant relaxation of the obligations
under the peace treaties. But Germany’s
politicians set about relieving the
symptoms wherever possible. The
prime minister of Bavaria submitted a
bill to make gluttony a penal offense. A
glutton was defined as “one who habitually
devotes himself to the pleasures of
the table to such a degree that he might
arouse discontent in view of the distressful
condition of the population.” It
was proposed that such a one “may be
arrested on suspicion, and punished by
imprisonment and/or a fine of up to
100,000 marks for a first offense.” The
bill—reminiscent of an Austrian move
to tax anyone who gave a luncheon or a
tea party—was never enacted. It was
indicative, nonetheless, of the offense
caused by German profiteers and by the
foreigners swarming to take advantage
of the exchange rates, and the desperate
lengths to which respectable politicians
were being pushed.
Politics were becoming irrelevant: at
Christmas 1921, the cost of living had
become people’s only concern. Since
1913, the price of rye bread had risen
by 13 times; beef by 17. Sugar, milk,
pork, and potatoes had risen between
23 and 28 times; butter had gone up by
33 times.
It was natural that people in the grip
of raging inflation should look for
someone to blame. In blaming the
greed of tourists or the wage demands
of labor or the selfishness of industrialists
or the sharpness of the Jews, they
were in large measure still blaming not
the disease but the symptoms. A few of
the financially sophisticated could be
heard blaming the government, but a
typical view was that prices went up
because the foreign exchange went up,
that the exchange rate went up
because of speculation on the stock
exchange, and that this was obviously
the fault of the Jews.
By the spring of 1922, Germany was
evincing many signs of national
despair. The country’s self-confidence
ebbed away along with its prosperity,
and as it did so, the moral degeneration
of the nation and its institutions set in.
Pessimism and restlessness grew as
security, community spirit, and patriotism
dwindled. Neither hatred of French
militarism in the abstract and France in
general nor a desire for revenge were
enough to hold together what had been
the most law-abiding people in Europe
when the fabric of the nation was
crumbling along with its ethical values,
and the moral, material, and social ravages
of inflation were immeasurably
worsening the conditions of both.
Among some, the rebirth of the
German soul, battered by war, hardship,
and humiliation, was becoming
something of an obsession. Not just the
militarists of Frontkämpfertag and the
academics of Königsberg but many of
all classes began to long for a great
leader: not a ruler of the type of the
Kaiser, but one possessed of the attributes
and Spartan values of the legendary
figures of early Teutonic history.
It was a longing Hitler fully understood.
When a nation is falling apart, its old
values challenged by new conditions,
there are always elements who will
seize on any means of cohesion.
***
The rise in prices intensified the
demand for currency, both by the state
and other employers. Private banks
could not meet the demand and had to
ration the cashing of checks, so that
uncashed checks remained frozen
while their purchasing power drained
F e b r u a r y 9 , 2 0 0 9 T h e A m e r i c a n C o n s e r v a t i v e 11
away. It became impossible to persuade
anyone to accept any description
of check, and business came to a standstill.
The panic spread to the working
classes when they realized that their
wages were simply not available.
Because the Reichsbank’s printing
presses and note-distribution arrangements
were insufficient for the situation,
a law was passed permitting, under
license and against the deposit of appropriate
assets, the issue of emergency
money tokens, or Notgeld, by state and
local authorities and industrial concerns
when the Reichsbank could not satisfy
needs for wage payment.
Before long, the tide of emergency
money entering local circulation, with
or without the bank’s approval, contrived
enormously to raise the level of
the sea of paper. As the ability to print
money privately in a time of accelerating
inflation made possible private
profits only limited by people’s willingness
to accept it, the process merely
banked up the inflationary fire to
ensure a bigger blaze later on.
The mark continued to plummet, but
the chancellor would accept no connection
between printing money and
its depreciation. Indeed, it remained
largely unrecognized in the cabinet,
bank, parliament, or press. The Vossische
Zeitung declared:
The opinion that the flood of
paper is the real origin of the
depreciation is not only wrong but
dangerously wrong. … Both private
and public statistics have
long shown that for the last two
years the interior depreciation of
the mark is due to the depreciation
of the rate of exchange. … It
should be remembered today that
our paper circulation, although it
shows a terrifying array of milliards,
is really not excessively
high…
British ambassador Lord D’Abernon
described these remarkable views as
“far from exceptionally retrograde,”
and in fact typical of enlightened Berlin
opinion.
A liter of milk, which cost 7 marks in
April 1922, by mid-September cost 26
marks. A Hesse professor lamented
that month that teachers and men of
science were no longer given the right
to live, and many would probably die
in the coming winter for lack of food
and warmth. He feared that their sons,
instead of following their fathers’
careers, would by force of circumstances
turn to manual labor: “Brains
no longer have a marketable value. The
result can only be a catastrophe for
Germany and the downfall of civilization
in central Europe, if not, indeed,
the whole world…”
The suffering was acute, although
worse was to come. Figures issued by
the chief burgomaster of Pankow for
1922 showed that nearly 25 percent of
the children leaving school were below
the normal spread of weights and
heights, and 30 percent were unfit to
work for reasons of health. “Want,” said
the burgomaster’s report, “is gradually
strangling every feeling for neatness,
cleanness, and decency, leaving room
only for thoughts of the fight with
hunger and cold.”
The gold value of money in circulation,
equivalent to nearly £300 million
before the war, had by November fallen
to £20 million. The more notes were
printed, the lower the value fell. How
the business of the country could be
carried on with so small an amount of
real currency mystified observers and
accounted for mounting pressures on
the bank to go on printing. Notes were
held for as short a time as possible. Private-
accounts checks were hardly
accepted. Anyone receiving money for
goods quickly converted it back into
other goods, and the money never
stopped moving, doing the work of ten
times the amount moving a tenth as
fast.
The Reichsbank had proclaimed,
and was now carrying out, a program
of unlimited printing. More and more
presses were employed, and by December
the amount issued was limited only
by the capacity of the presses and the
physical fatigue of the printers. Lord
D’Abernon reported to London: “The
exchange market and the Reichsbank
are like a runaway horse with an
incompetent rider—each aggravates
the folly of the other.”
“By the end of the year,” said Erna
von Pustau, “my allowance and all the
money I earned were not worth one
cup of coffee. You could go to the baker
in the morning and buy two rolls for 20
marks; but go there in the afternoon
and the same two rolls were 25 marks.
… It had somehow to do with the
dollar, somehow to do with the stock
exchange—and somehow, maybe, to
do with the Jews.”
Bit by bit, the star of Hitler began to
outshine the medals of Ludendorff.
Economic salvation had become for
most people the most pressing need.
They were being turned from politics
by the cost of living and low salaries.
Hitler alone was capable of trimming
his ship to every wind. The middle class
was going Nazi.
***
“Inflation is like a drug in more ways
than one,” remarked Lord D’Abernon.
“It is fatal in the end, but it gets its
votaries over many difficult moments.”
Hopelessly addicted, the Reichsbank
ploughed on. By 1923, massive unemployment
had come and inflation was
pursued more rigorously than ever.
Petty crime, the crime of desperation,
was flourishing. Metal plaques on monuments
had to be removed for safekeeping.
Lead was beginning to disap12
T h e A m e r i c a n C o n s e r v a t i v e F e b r u a r y 9 , 2 0 0 9
pear overnight from roofs, and petrol
was siphoned from the tanks of motor
cars. A cinema seat cost a lump of coal.
With a bottle of paraffin, one might buy
a shirt; with that shirt, the potatoes
needed by one’s family.
There were also stories of shoppers
who found that thieves had stolen the
suitcases in which they carried their
money, leaving the money behind; and
of life supported by selling every day a
single link from a gold crucifix chain. A
5,000-mark cup of coffee would cost
8,000 by the time it was drunk.
In July 1923, Germany was introduced
to a new range of banknotes: 10,
20, and 50 million marks. The political
crisis had come to a head. When a
printers’ strike broke out, crowds with
wheelbarrows surrounded the Reichsbank
calling for banknotes. All that
could be said about the currency was
that it was still current, nothing having
replaced it: but there was no measure
of value and hardly a medium of
exchange. On Sept. 1, the Reichsbank
issued a note with a face value of 500
million marks.
The pervading uncertainty that had
smothered the old national spirit was
now the food of extremism. The most
moderate persons declared that firmness—
a strong hand—was required.
Thus on Sept. 2, 1923, 100,000 demonstrators
gathered for the Nazi rally at
Nuremburg. Within the week, speaking
five or six times a day, Hitler was calling
for national dictatorship.
By the end of September, the government’s
control of the political, let alone
the financial, situation was strained to
the breaking point. So were the ministers:
according to the Czech foreign
minister they were so exhausted that
they were incapable of real consideration
of the problems, “the decision of
which depends on which minister had
the most sleep the night before.” The
proclamation of Sept. 19 threatening a
month in jail and unlimited fines to
anyone who hoarded food or money, or
prevented the paying of taxes, or
impeded the distribution of food was a
useless act of desperation: everyone,
ministers included, was hoarding
everything; no one made any effort to
pay taxes; and the only impediment to
the distribution of food was the lack of
currency to pay for it.
On Sept. 26, Chancellor Stresemann
suspended seven articles of the Weimar
constitution, declared a state of emergency,
and gave executive powers to
the defense minister. The country was
divided into seven military districts,
with a local military dictator over each.
Here, perhaps, was the strong hand
that Germans wanted. There could
now be restrictions on personal liberty.
The army and police might interfere at
will with postal, telegraph, and telephone
services, indulge in house
searches, and confiscate property.
Incitement to disobedience could be
punished with imprisonment or a fine
of up to 15,000 gold marks. If lives were
endangered, the punishment could be
penal servitude.
Inflation is the ally of political
extremists, the antithesis of order. At
other times—in post-revolutionary
Russia, in Kadar’s Hungary—it may
have been engendered to destroy the
social order, for chaos is the stuff of
revolution. In Germany at this time,
however, the inflationary policy was
the consequence of financial ignorance,
of industrial greed, and, to some
extent, of political cowardice. Hitler set
his hopes in 1923 on “the revolt of
starving billionaires.”
When Schacht was appointed commissioner
for national currency on
Nov. 13, he faced incredible disorder.
During the previous ten days, expenditure
had exceeded revenue by 1,000
times. The floating debt had increased
15 times. The budgetary estimates
included on every page the outrageous
reminder that all figures were in
quadrillions.
***
The immediate basis of stabilization
was not the closing down of the printing
presses so much as the rigorous disciplining
of state expenditure by the
refusal of further credit to the government
and by a return from a floating
mark to a fixed parity against gold and
the dollar. The government, having put
the screws to the nation and made
Schacht president of the Reichsbank
for life, could do little but hope the cure
would work.
Food began to appear again in the
towns halfway through December. On
Christmas Day 1923, Lord D’Abernon
wrote of the “magical wand of currency
stability.” Sanity had returned to Germany’s
finances, and no doubt 1924, a
period of extreme monetary stringency,
consolidated the financial recovery. But
it was too much to hope that years of
reckless profligacy could be so easily
paid for, or that what the country had
passed through would have no lasting
effects on the people’s mind. The economic
reckoning was still to come.
“After a long devaluation,” Schacht held
on Jan. 24, 1924, “stability can only be
regained at the cost of a severe crisis.”
Germany’s trouble was that the inflation
boom had never been liquidated.
The country that had undergone every
conceivable form of collapse during
the previous six years now crashed
downwards just as she was beginning
to rise from her knees. Confidence was
shattered. The flow of foreign money
slackened. The Reichsbank policy of
credit restriction was maintained as
firmly as ever to counteract a net outflow
of gold and foreign exchange.
There was such an alarming rise in the
cost of living that to prevent agitation
the index had to be cooked. Much
F e b r u a r y 9 , 2 0 0 9 T h e A m e r i c a n C o n s e r v a t i v e 13
though public works were instituted to
try to mop up labor, the unemployed
figure passed 1,300,000 by December
1925, presenting the politicians’ nightmare
of 1922: unhidden mass unemployment
that the policy of inflation
had so largely been designed to avoid.
The scourge of inflation, it must be
emphasized, followed the scourge of
defeat in war, so that one must hesitate
to affirm that the psychological trauma
of the early 1920s would have been
absent but for the insecurity that endless
depreciation of the currency
brought. National disintegration and
social upheavals unconnected with the
money supply, after all, are enough to
promote ethical degeneration and contempt
for old standards of behavior in
any community. It remains the case that
those who lived with or observed the
process attributed what they saw first
and foremost to inflation: fear, greed,
immorality, demoralization, dishonor.
As the old virtues of thrift, honesty,
and hard work lost their appeal, everybody
was out to get rich quickly, especially
as speculation could yield far
greater rewards than labor. While the
anonymous, mindless Reichsbank was
prepared to be the dupe of borrowers,
no merchant would have wished to let
the opportunities for enrichment slip
by while others were making hay. For
the less astute, it was incentive enough,
and arguably morally defensible, to
take every advantage of the unworkable
fiscal system merely to maintain
financial and social position.
As that position slid away, patriotism,
social obligations, and morals slid
with it. The air of corruption was general.
Democracy may have survived
inflation, but there was little evidence
of universal gratitude for that deliverance.
Monarchism was the more popular
creed, and it may be that the exposure
of Germany’s moral wounds—the
financial scandals of the inflationary
years—contributed greatly to the
strengthening of the disciplinarian side
of the nation’s character.
Where did the story end? More than
any other thread that links the two
world wars, the history of the inflation
is a reminder that the second was an
extension of the first. Inflation for Germany
was an unwitting part of the
process of stoking the emotional boilers
for a resumption of hostilities when
the power to wage war returned. Not
only did the loss of former affluence
and the destruction of the old moral
ethic humiliate the human pillars of
society: in German minds democracy
and republicanism had become so
associated with financial, social, and
political disorder as to render any alternatives
preferable when disorder
threatened again.
With inflation alone, noted Günter
Schmölders, can a government extinguish
debt without repayment or wage
war and engage in other nonproductive
activities on a large scale: it is not recognized
as a tax. Thus did Hitler resume
deficit spending to finance armaments
in 1938, and the experience begin again.
To say that inflation caused Hitler, or
that inflation elsewhere could produce
other dictatorships, is to wander into
quagmires of irrelevant analogy. Comparable,
coincidental circumstances in
Austria and Hungary do not support
such a notion. On the other hand, the
vast unemployment of the early 1930s
gave Hitler the votes he needed, and it
is indisputable that in the inflationary
years, Hitler first tried his fingers for
size on the throat of German democracy.
Inflation did not conjure up Hitler,
but it made Hitler possible.
***
Money is no more than a medium of
exchange. Only when it has a value
acknowledged by more than one
person can it be used. Once no one
acknowledged it, the Germans learnt,
their paper had no value. The discovery
that shattered their society was that the
traditional repository of purchasing
power had disappeared and that there
was no means left of measuring the
worth of anything. For most, degree of
necessity became the sole criterion of
value, the basis of everything. Man’s
values became animal values.
When life is secure, society
acknowledges the value of luxuries,
those enjoyments without which life
can proceed but which make it much
pleasanter. When life is insecure,
values change. Without warmth, a
roof, or adequate clothes, it may be
difficult to sustain life for more than a
few weeks. Without food, life can be
shorter still. At the top of the scale, the
most valuable commodities are water
and air. For the destitute in Germany,
whose money had no exchange value,
existence came very near these metaphysical
conceptions. It had been so in
the war. In All Quiet on the Western
Front, Müller died “and bequeathed
me his boots—the same that he once
inherited from Kemmerick. I wear
them, for they fit me quite well. After
me, Tjaden will get them: I have promised
them to him.”
In war, boots; in flight, a place in a
boat may be the most vital thing in the
world, more desirable than untold millions.
In hyperinflation, a kilo of potatoes
was worth more than the family silver. A
prostitute in the family was better than
an infant corpse; theft was preferable to
starvation; warmth was finer than honor;
clothing more essential than democracy;
food more needed than freedom.
Adam Fergusson is the author of five
books, has been a Member (for Scotland)
of the European Parliament,
and was European Adviser to the
British Foreign Office. He is currently
a consultant on European affairs.

Great thanks :)

Offline Stan

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The dollar will collapse at some point though in the future

I find my attention drawn to this topic lately.. In Norway, it seems suspicious that everybody and their Uncle is investing in the housing market. How does that create wealth? It is an empty investment that does not create much value, and still forces the price up for the average guy. I would like to know, in a traditional hyperinflation scenario, what are the things that rise in a value first, and which last?

When Money Dies
by Adam Fergusson

Classic:  http://www.amazon.com/s/?ie=UTF8&keywords=fergusson+when+money+dies&tag=googhydr-20&index=stripbooks&hvadid=39339897410&hvpos=1t1&hvexid=&hvnetw=s&hvrand=10235508638419750691&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=b&hvdev=c&ref=pd_sl_7m33mv56e1_b

Condensed version in pdf:

F e b r u a r y 9 , 2 0 0 9 T h e A m e r i c a n C o n s e r v a t i v e
Code: [Select]
F e b r u a r y 9 , 2 0 0 9 T h e A m e r i c a n C o n s e r v a t i v e 9
From wise friends to obscure websites,
we’d heard rumors that it exists.
But tracking down When Money Dies,
the definitive 1975 text on hyperinflation
in Weimar Germany, is another
matter entirely. Amazon lists a copy
for $2,500. The Library of Congress
declares it on perpetual “internal
loan.” The publisher is out of business.
But we eventually located Adam Fergusson
in London, and he graciously
gave TAC permission to condense his
classic. Even in abridged form, its literary
grace and historical insight are
apparent. So too its modern relevance.
THE AGONY OF INFLATION is similar
to acute pain—demanding complete
attention while it lasts; forgotten or
ignorable when it has gone, whatever
scars it may leave behind. Some such
explanation may apply to the strange
way in which the remarkable episode
of the Weimar inflation has been
divorced from contemporary incident.
This is not an economic study. This is
a morality tale. It goes far to prove the
revolutionary axiom that if you wish to
destroy a nation you must first corrupt
its currency. Thus must sound money be
the first bastion of a society’s defense.
In 1913, the German mark, British
shilling, French franc, and Italian lira
were all worth about the same, and
four or five were worth about a dollar.
By 1923, it would have been possible to
exchange a shilling, a franc, or a lira for
up to 1,000,000,000,000 marks, although
no one was willing to take marks for
anything.
The inflation was so preposterous
that the story has tended to be passed
off more as a historical curiosity than
the culmination of economic, social,
and political circumstance of permanent
significance. It matters little that
the causes of the Weimar inflation are
unrepeatable, that political conditions
are different, that it is almost inconceivable
that financial chaos would
again be allowed to develop so far. The
danger to be recognized is how inflation,
however caused, affects a nation:
its government, its people, its society.
If what happened to the defeated
Central Powers in the early 1920s is
anything to go by, then the process of
collapse of the trusted medium of
exchange, the currency by which all
values are measured, by which social
status is guaranteed, upon which security
depends, and in which the fruits of
labor are stored, unleashes such greed,
violence, and hatred, largely bred from
fear, as no society can survive uncrippled.
Certainly 1922 and 1923 brought
catastrophe to the German bourgeoisie,
as well as hunger, disease, destitution,
and sometimes death to an
even wider public. Yet any people
might have ridden out those years had
they represented one frightful storm in
an otherwise calm passage. What most
damaged the morale was that they
were the climax of unreality to years of
unimagined strain.
To ascribe the despair entirely to
inflation would be misleading.
Undoubtedly, though, inflation aggravated
every evil, ruined every chance of
national revival or individual success,
and produced the conditions in which
extremists could raise the mob against
the state. It undermined national resolution
when simple want might have
bolstered it. Partly because of its
unfairly discriminatory nature, it
brought out the worst in everybody. It
caused fear and insecurity among
those who had already known too
much of both. It fostered xenophobia.
It promoted contempt of government
and the subversion of law and order. It
corrupted where corruption had been
unknown, and often where it should
have been impossible.
Before 1914, the credit policy of the
Reichsbank had been governed by the
Bank Law of 1875, whereby not less
than one-third of the note issue had to
be covered by gold and the remainder
by three-month discount bills adequately
guaranteed. In August 1914,
action was taken both to pay for the
war and to protect the country’s gold
reserves. The latter objective was
achieved by the simple device of suspending
the redemption of Reichsbank
notes in gold. The former was contrived
by setting up loan banks whose
funds were to be provided simply by
printing them. The loan banks would
give credits to business, to the Federal
states, to the municipalities, and to the
new war corporations.
Thus were the government’s plans
drawn up for financing the war—not by
taxation but by borrowing, with the
printing press as the well to supply
When Money Dies
Brother, can you spare a million marks?
By Adam Fergusson
10 T h e A m e r i c a n C o n s e r v a t i v e F e b r u a r y 9 , 2 0 0 9
both the needs of government and the
credit demand for private business.
Only when the war was over, with the
veil of censorship lifted, did it become
clear that Germany had met an economic
disaster nearly as shattering as
her military one. Within a few months
of the Armistice, the elements were
present for the most devastating monetary
collapse that any industrialized
nation has ever known. Her industrial
resources and manpower heavily
reduced, and hopelessly burdened with
the insupportable weight of reparation
payments, Germany was required to
regain her feet in quicksands of her
own making.
The state of the mark became the
barometer both of international confidence
in Germany and national despair.
Before the war, it had stood at 20 to the
pound sterling. At the end of the war, it
stood at 43. Before the terms of the
Treaty of Versailles were accepted in
June 1919, a pound would buy 60
marks. But when December came
around again, it would buy 185.
***
“The delirium of milliards [i.e., billions]”
was a phrase of Foreign Minister
Walter Rathenau’s coining. “The
majority of statesmen and financiers
think in terms of paper,” he wrote.
“They sit in their offices and look at
papers … and on those papers are written
figures which again represent
papers. … A milliard comes easily and
trippingly to the tongue, but no one can
imagine a milliard. … Does a wood
contain a milliard leaves? Are there a
milliard blades of grass in a meadow?”
Rathenau diagnosed that delirium as
an affliction not of the people in general—
that was to come—but of those
who were supposedly in control of the
country’s finances, who had raised the
note circulation since the beginning of
the year from 73 milliard marks to 80
milliard. The mark, at 310 to the pound
in mid-August, had sped downwards to
over 400 by mid-September, and was
still going down.
The disease, the German financial
world seemed to agree, was not containable
without international goodwill and
a significant relaxation of the obligations
under the peace treaties. But Germany’s
politicians set about relieving the
symptoms wherever possible. The
prime minister of Bavaria submitted a
bill to make gluttony a penal offense. A
glutton was defined as “one who habitually
devotes himself to the pleasures of
the table to such a degree that he might
arouse discontent in view of the distressful
condition of the population.” It
was proposed that such a one “may be
arrested on suspicion, and punished by
imprisonment and/or a fine of up to
100,000 marks for a first offense.” The
bill—reminiscent of an Austrian move
to tax anyone who gave a luncheon or a
tea party—was never enacted. It was
indicative, nonetheless, of the offense
caused by German profiteers and by the
foreigners swarming to take advantage
of the exchange rates, and the desperate
lengths to which respectable politicians
were being pushed.
Politics were becoming irrelevant: at
Christmas 1921, the cost of living had
become people’s only concern. Since
1913, the price of rye bread had risen
by 13 times; beef by 17. Sugar, milk,
pork, and potatoes had risen between
23 and 28 times; butter had gone up by
33 times.
It was natural that people in the grip
of raging inflation should look for
someone to blame. In blaming the
greed of tourists or the wage demands
of labor or the selfishness of industrialists
or the sharpness of the Jews, they
were in large measure still blaming not
the disease but the symptoms. A few of
the financially sophisticated could be
heard blaming the government, but a
typical view was that prices went up
because the foreign exchange went up,
that the exchange rate went up
because of speculation on the stock
exchange, and that this was obviously
the fault of the Jews.
By the spring of 1922, Germany was
evincing many signs of national
despair. The country’s self-confidence
ebbed away along with its prosperity,
and as it did so, the moral degeneration
of the nation and its institutions set in.
Pessimism and restlessness grew as
security, community spirit, and patriotism
dwindled. Neither hatred of French
militarism in the abstract and France in
general nor a desire for revenge were
enough to hold together what had been
the most law-abiding people in Europe
when the fabric of the nation was
crumbling along with its ethical values,
and the moral, material, and social ravages
of inflation were immeasurably
worsening the conditions of both.
Among some, the rebirth of the
German soul, battered by war, hardship,
and humiliation, was becoming
something of an obsession. Not just the
militarists of Frontkämpfertag and the
academics of Königsberg but many of
all classes began to long for a great
leader: not a ruler of the type of the
Kaiser, but one possessed of the attributes
and Spartan values of the legendary
figures of early Teutonic history.
It was a longing Hitler fully understood.
When a nation is falling apart, its old
values challenged by new conditions,
there are always elements who will
seize on any means of cohesion.
***
The rise in prices intensified the
demand for currency, both by the state
and other employers. Private banks
could not meet the demand and had to
ration the cashing of checks, so that
uncashed checks remained frozen
while their purchasing power drained
F e b r u a r y 9 , 2 0 0 9 T h e A m e r i c a n C o n s e r v a t i v e 11
away. It became impossible to persuade
anyone to accept any description
of check, and business came to a standstill.
The panic spread to the working
classes when they realized that their
wages were simply not available.
Because the Reichsbank’s printing
presses and note-distribution arrangements
were insufficient for the situation,
a law was passed permitting, under
license and against the deposit of appropriate
assets, the issue of emergency
money tokens, or Notgeld, by state and
local authorities and industrial concerns
when the Reichsbank could not satisfy
needs for wage payment.
Before long, the tide of emergency
money entering local circulation, with
or without the bank’s approval, contrived
enormously to raise the level of
the sea of paper. As the ability to print
money privately in a time of accelerating
inflation made possible private
profits only limited by people’s willingness
to accept it, the process merely
banked up the inflationary fire to
ensure a bigger blaze later on.
The mark continued to plummet, but
the chancellor would accept no connection
between printing money and
its depreciation. Indeed, it remained
largely unrecognized in the cabinet,
bank, parliament, or press. The Vossische
Zeitung declared:
The opinion that the flood of
paper is the real origin of the
depreciation is not only wrong but
dangerously wrong. … Both private
and public statistics have
long shown that for the last two
years the interior depreciation of
the mark is due to the depreciation
of the rate of exchange. … It
should be remembered today that
our paper circulation, although it
shows a terrifying array of milliards,
is really not excessively
high…
British ambassador Lord D’Abernon
described these remarkable views as
“far from exceptionally retrograde,”
and in fact typical of enlightened Berlin
opinion.
A liter of milk, which cost 7 marks in
April 1922, by mid-September cost 26
marks. A Hesse professor lamented
that month that teachers and men of
science were no longer given the right
to live, and many would probably die
in the coming winter for lack of food
and warmth. He feared that their sons,
instead of following their fathers’
careers, would by force of circumstances
turn to manual labor: “Brains
no longer have a marketable value. The
result can only be a catastrophe for
Germany and the downfall of civilization
in central Europe, if not, indeed,
the whole world…”
The suffering was acute, although
worse was to come. Figures issued by
the chief burgomaster of Pankow for
1922 showed that nearly 25 percent of
the children leaving school were below
the normal spread of weights and
heights, and 30 percent were unfit to
work for reasons of health. “Want,” said
the burgomaster’s report, “is gradually
strangling every feeling for neatness,
cleanness, and decency, leaving room
only for thoughts of the fight with
hunger and cold.”
The gold value of money in circulation,
equivalent to nearly £300 million
before the war, had by November fallen
to £20 million. The more notes were
printed, the lower the value fell. How
the business of the country could be
carried on with so small an amount of
real currency mystified observers and
accounted for mounting pressures on
the bank to go on printing. Notes were
held for as short a time as possible. Private-
accounts checks were hardly
accepted. Anyone receiving money for
goods quickly converted it back into
other goods, and the money never
stopped moving, doing the work of ten
times the amount moving a tenth as
fast.
The Reichsbank had proclaimed,
and was now carrying out, a program
of unlimited printing. More and more
presses were employed, and by December
the amount issued was limited only
by the capacity of the presses and the
physical fatigue of the printers. Lord
D’Abernon reported to London: “The
exchange market and the Reichsbank
are like a runaway horse with an
incompetent rider—each aggravates
the folly of the other.”
“By the end of the year,” said Erna
von Pustau, “my allowance and all the
money I earned were not worth one
cup of coffee. You could go to the baker
in the morning and buy two rolls for 20
marks; but go there in the afternoon
and the same two rolls were 25 marks.
… It had somehow to do with the
dollar, somehow to do with the stock
exchange—and somehow, maybe, to
do with the Jews.”
Bit by bit, the star of Hitler began to
outshine the medals of Ludendorff.
Economic salvation had become for
most people the most pressing need.
They were being turned from politics
by the cost of living and low salaries.
Hitler alone was capable of trimming
his ship to every wind. The middle class
was going Nazi.
***
“Inflation is like a drug in more ways
than one,” remarked Lord D’Abernon.
“It is fatal in the end, but it gets its
votaries over many difficult moments.”
Hopelessly addicted, the Reichsbank
ploughed on. By 1923, massive unemployment
had come and inflation was
pursued more rigorously than ever.
Petty crime, the crime of desperation,
was flourishing. Metal plaques on monuments
had to be removed for safekeeping.
Lead was beginning to disap12
T h e A m e r i c a n C o n s e r v a t i v e F e b r u a r y 9 , 2 0 0 9
pear overnight from roofs, and petrol
was siphoned from the tanks of motor
cars. A cinema seat cost a lump of coal.
With a bottle of paraffin, one might buy
a shirt; with that shirt, the potatoes
needed by one’s family.
There were also stories of shoppers
who found that thieves had stolen the
suitcases in which they carried their
money, leaving the money behind; and
of life supported by selling every day a
single link from a gold crucifix chain. A
5,000-mark cup of coffee would cost
8,000 by the time it was drunk.
In July 1923, Germany was introduced
to a new range of banknotes: 10,
20, and 50 million marks. The political
crisis had come to a head. When a
printers’ strike broke out, crowds with
wheelbarrows surrounded the Reichsbank
calling for banknotes. All that
could be said about the currency was
that it was still current, nothing having
replaced it: but there was no measure
of value and hardly a medium of
exchange. On Sept. 1, the Reichsbank
issued a note with a face value of 500
million marks.
The pervading uncertainty that had
smothered the old national spirit was
now the food of extremism. The most
moderate persons declared that firmness—
a strong hand—was required.
Thus on Sept. 2, 1923, 100,000 demonstrators
gathered for the Nazi rally at
Nuremburg. Within the week, speaking
five or six times a day, Hitler was calling
for national dictatorship.
By the end of September, the government’s
control of the political, let alone
the financial, situation was strained to
the breaking point. So were the ministers:
according to the Czech foreign
minister they were so exhausted that
they were incapable of real consideration
of the problems, “the decision of
which depends on which minister had
the most sleep the night before.” The
proclamation of Sept. 19 threatening a
month in jail and unlimited fines to
anyone who hoarded food or money, or
prevented the paying of taxes, or
impeded the distribution of food was a
useless act of desperation: everyone,
ministers included, was hoarding
everything; no one made any effort to
pay taxes; and the only impediment to
the distribution of food was the lack of
currency to pay for it.
On Sept. 26, Chancellor Stresemann
suspended seven articles of the Weimar
constitution, declared a state of emergency,
and gave executive powers to
the defense minister. The country was
divided into seven military districts,
with a local military dictator over each.
Here, perhaps, was the strong hand
that Germans wanted. There could
now be restrictions on personal liberty.
The army and police might interfere at
will with postal, telegraph, and telephone
services, indulge in house
searches, and confiscate property.
Incitement to disobedience could be
punished with imprisonment or a fine
of up to 15,000 gold marks. If lives were
endangered, the punishment could be
penal servitude.
Inflation is the ally of political
extremists, the antithesis of order. At
other times—in post-revolutionary
Russia, in Kadar’s Hungary—it may
have been engendered to destroy the
social order, for chaos is the stuff of
revolution. In Germany at this time,
however, the inflationary policy was
the consequence of financial ignorance,
of industrial greed, and, to some
extent, of political cowardice. Hitler set
his hopes in 1923 on “the revolt of
starving billionaires.”
When Schacht was appointed commissioner
for national currency on
Nov. 13, he faced incredible disorder.
During the previous ten days, expenditure
had exceeded revenue by 1,000
times. The floating debt had increased
15 times. The budgetary estimates
included on every page the outrageous
reminder that all figures were in
quadrillions.
***
The immediate basis of stabilization
was not the closing down of the printing
presses so much as the rigorous disciplining
of state expenditure by the
refusal of further credit to the government
and by a return from a floating
mark to a fixed parity against gold and
the dollar. The government, having put
the screws to the nation and made
Schacht president of the Reichsbank
for life, could do little but hope the cure
would work.
Food began to appear again in the
towns halfway through December. On
Christmas Day 1923, Lord D’Abernon
wrote of the “magical wand of currency
stability.” Sanity had returned to Germany’s
finances, and no doubt 1924, a
period of extreme monetary stringency,
consolidated the financial recovery. But
it was too much to hope that years of
reckless profligacy could be so easily
paid for, or that what the country had
passed through would have no lasting
effects on the people’s mind. The economic
reckoning was still to come.
“After a long devaluation,” Schacht held
on Jan. 24, 1924, “stability can only be
regained at the cost of a severe crisis.”
Germany’s trouble was that the inflation
boom had never been liquidated.
The country that had undergone every
conceivable form of collapse during
the previous six years now crashed
downwards just as she was beginning
to rise from her knees. Confidence was
shattered. The flow of foreign money
slackened. The Reichsbank policy of
credit restriction was maintained as
firmly as ever to counteract a net outflow
of gold and foreign exchange.
There was such an alarming rise in the
cost of living that to prevent agitation
the index had to be cooked. Much
F e b r u a r y 9 , 2 0 0 9 T h e A m e r i c a n C o n s e r v a t i v e 13
though public works were instituted to
try to mop up labor, the unemployed
figure passed 1,300,000 by December
1925, presenting the politicians’ nightmare
of 1922: unhidden mass unemployment
that the policy of inflation
had so largely been designed to avoid.
The scourge of inflation, it must be
emphasized, followed the scourge of
defeat in war, so that one must hesitate
to affirm that the psychological trauma
of the early 1920s would have been
absent but for the insecurity that endless
depreciation of the currency
brought. National disintegration and
social upheavals unconnected with the
money supply, after all, are enough to
promote ethical degeneration and contempt
for old standards of behavior in
any community. It remains the case that
those who lived with or observed the
process attributed what they saw first
and foremost to inflation: fear, greed,
immorality, demoralization, dishonor.
As the old virtues of thrift, honesty,
and hard work lost their appeal, everybody
was out to get rich quickly, especially
as speculation could yield far
greater rewards than labor. While the
anonymous, mindless Reichsbank was
prepared to be the dupe of borrowers,
no merchant would have wished to let
the opportunities for enrichment slip
by while others were making hay. For
the less astute, it was incentive enough,
and arguably morally defensible, to
take every advantage of the unworkable
fiscal system merely to maintain
financial and social position.
As that position slid away, patriotism,
social obligations, and morals slid
with it. The air of corruption was general.
Democracy may have survived
inflation, but there was little evidence
of universal gratitude for that deliverance.
Monarchism was the more popular
creed, and it may be that the exposure
of Germany’s moral wounds—the
financial scandals of the inflationary
years—contributed greatly to the
strengthening of the disciplinarian side
of the nation’s character.
Where did the story end? More than
any other thread that links the two
world wars, the history of the inflation
is a reminder that the second was an
extension of the first. Inflation for Germany
was an unwitting part of the
process of stoking the emotional boilers
for a resumption of hostilities when
the power to wage war returned. Not
only did the loss of former affluence
and the destruction of the old moral
ethic humiliate the human pillars of
society: in German minds democracy
and republicanism had become so
associated with financial, social, and
political disorder as to render any alternatives
preferable when disorder
threatened again.
With inflation alone, noted Günter
Schmölders, can a government extinguish
debt without repayment or wage
war and engage in other nonproductive
activities on a large scale: it is not recognized
as a tax. Thus did Hitler resume
deficit spending to finance armaments
in 1938, and the experience begin again.
To say that inflation caused Hitler, or
that inflation elsewhere could produce
other dictatorships, is to wander into
quagmires of irrelevant analogy. Comparable,
coincidental circumstances in
Austria and Hungary do not support
such a notion. On the other hand, the
vast unemployment of the early 1930s
gave Hitler the votes he needed, and it
is indisputable that in the inflationary
years, Hitler first tried his fingers for
size on the throat of German democracy.
Inflation did not conjure up Hitler,
but it made Hitler possible.
***
Money is no more than a medium of
exchange. Only when it has a value
acknowledged by more than one
person can it be used. Once no one
acknowledged it, the Germans learnt,
their paper had no value. The discovery
that shattered their society was that the
traditional repository of purchasing
power had disappeared and that there
was no means left of measuring the
worth of anything. For most, degree of
necessity became the sole criterion of
value, the basis of everything. Man’s
values became animal values.
When life is secure, society
acknowledges the value of luxuries,
those enjoyments without which life
can proceed but which make it much
pleasanter. When life is insecure,
values change. Without warmth, a
roof, or adequate clothes, it may be
difficult to sustain life for more than a
few weeks. Without food, life can be
shorter still. At the top of the scale, the
most valuable commodities are water
and air. For the destitute in Germany,
whose money had no exchange value,
existence came very near these metaphysical
conceptions. It had been so in
the war. In All Quiet on the Western
Front, Müller died “and bequeathed
me his boots—the same that he once
inherited from Kemmerick. I wear
them, for they fit me quite well. After
me, Tjaden will get them: I have promised
them to him.”
In war, boots; in flight, a place in a
boat may be the most vital thing in the
world, more desirable than untold millions.
In hyperinflation, a kilo of potatoes
was worth more than the family silver. A
prostitute in the family was better than
an infant corpse; theft was preferable to
starvation; warmth was finer than honor;
clothing more essential than democracy;
food more needed than freedom.
Adam Fergusson is the author of five
books, has been a Member (for Scotland)
of the European Parliament,
and was European Adviser to the
British Foreign Office. He is currently
a consultant on European affairs.
« Last Edit: October 09, 2014, 12:58:12 am by Stan »
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Offline Method-X

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Surely, you mean BitUSD adoption, not Bitcoin.
Since when USD is returned to be cool? It's inflationnist and it's not global.

As an European I seriously don't care about BitUSD.

USD is global and very popular in countries with high inflation. Though it's often very hard to come by with capital controls. Those same countries also like Bitcoin but it's too volatile. BitUSD will be very popular there.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-15/argentines-are-hoarding-1-every-15-cash-dollars-world

The dollar will collapse at some point though in the future

BitGLD to the rescue!!!

Offline CLains

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The dollar will collapse at some point though in the future

I find my attention drawn to this topic lately.. In Norway, it seems suspicious that everybody and their Uncle is investing in the housing market. How does that create wealth? It is an empty investment that does not create much value, and still forces the price up for the average guy. I would like to know, in a traditional hyperinflation scenario, what are the things that rise in a value first, and which last?

Offline Empirical1.1

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Surely, you mean BitUSD adoption, not Bitcoin.
Since when USD is returned to be cool? It's inflationnist and it's not global.

As an European I seriously don't care about BitUSD.

USD is global and very popular in countries with high inflation. Though it's often very hard to come by with capital controls. Those same countries also like Bitcoin but it's too volatile. BitUSD will be very popular there.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-15/argentines-are-hoarding-1-every-15-cash-dollars-world

The dollar will collapse at some point though in the future

Offline BldSwtTrs

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Surely, you mean BitUSD adoption, not Bitcoin.
Since when USD is returned to be cool? It's inflationnist and it's not global.

As an European I seriously don't care about BitUSD.

Offline Empirical1.1

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Income tax will disappear and be replaced with higher property tax

For once we agree.

Apologies for posting like an haphazard fool sometimes. I have a ton of respect for you regardless of any disagreements


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Oh no worries, I respect you too and I think disagreements are actually very good  :)

Offline CLains

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It will liberate the resting potential that has built up in this exponentially growing and globally connected technological existence. The pent up need comes from insufficient sourcing, speed and creation of information. Blockchain technologies will truly light up the flow of information, to the extent that there will be a qualitative difference.
« Last Edit: October 07, 2014, 11:50:10 pm by CLains »

Offline carpet ride

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Surely, you mean BitUSD adoption, not Bitcoin.

I had the same thought


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Offline donkeypong

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Surely, you mean BitUSD adoption, not Bitcoin.

Offline carpet ride

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Income tax will disappear and be replaced with higher property tax

For once we agree.

Apologies for posting like an haphazard fool sometimes. I have a ton of respect for you regardless of any disagreements


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
All opinions are my own. Anything said on this forum does not constitute an intent to create a legal obligation between myself and anyone else.
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Offline Empirical1.1

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Income tax will disappear and be replaced with higher property tax

For once we agree.

Offline carpet ride

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Income tax will disappear and be replaced with higher property tax
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Offline xeroc

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I seriously think Bitcoin is one of the most important invention in human history.
s/Bitcoin/the blockchain/

Offline BldSwtTrs

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Huge. Comparable to the transition from paleolithic to neolithic with the agricultural revolution.

States will undego a massive reduction of their power, exchanges and markets will expand dramatically, inflation plague will end forever, imaginable numbers of applications will be create on top of blockchains like Internet and the Web had allow in their time.

I seriously think Bitcoin is one of the most important invention in human history.
« Last Edit: October 07, 2014, 10:36:50 am by BldSwtTrs »