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Offline Permie

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I'm interested to know what the total supply of shares in the DAC will be if BitShares is successful and goes some way to augmenting the financial services industry.
As I understand it:
Shares are added to the total supply from block rewards, currently ~400k bts per day.
Shares are removed from the total supply as they are burned in transaction fees.

How many bts will be burned in fees if the ecosystem reaches mass adoption.
How fast is the  total supply of bts going to shrink, and how many shares do you think there will be in 10 years time?
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Offline jsidhu

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I think the dilution is about 15bts per 10 seconds right now amd about 130k per day currently. I also believe there is a hard cap at 3 billion? Anyways if succeeded it will shrink faster howver im not sure if fees are scalable to marketcap rising. That is will the fee scale to the cost of a tx in fiat terms if bts price rises? Should be easy since we have a price feed. Perhaps pegging against usd or a basket or currencies including btc would be nice.

The reason i ask is it will be easy to determine deflation of the supply base  aswell as cost of doing business if fee is based on external price which people understand. Ie: cost of doing a tx is $0.001 and it stays that way until ots voted tochange to 100 satoshi bitcoin.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2015, 04:20:28 PM by jsidhu »
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Offline Permie

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I've also been thinking that the amount of bts burned is directly proportional to the profit priced in fiat/gold.
The transaction fees will have to be adjusted to remain competitive.

I found a thread by Ander that goes into a lot more detail. Predictions for the total supply that is likely to ever exist are around 2.7-3Bn.
The theoretical max supply limit is ~3.7Bn
https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,11213.0.html

With the addition of the pay reward halving every 4 years, there will now be an absolute hard cap on the number of bitshares.


Starting BTS total: 2.5 billion.    This comes from current BTSX (2 billion), plus stake allocated to PTS, AGS, DNS, and VOTE (500 million total).

Starting reward per year: 157,680,000.    (50 BTS per block * 6 blocks per minute * 60 minutes per hour * 24 hours per day * 365 days per year).

4 years at this rate is 630,720,000.  After that, the reward halves, and in the next 4 years, we add half that.  And so on.   The total number of bitshares that will EvER be paid to delegates is capped at 1,261,440,000.    (In reality it will be less, because many delegates are low pay delegates).



Here is the hard cap of BTS at 4 year intervals:

Nov 2014:  2,500,000,000  (maximum 6.3% a year inflation)
Nov 2018:  3,130,720,000  (maximum 3.1% a year inflation)
Nov 2022:  3,446,080,000  (maximum 1.6% a year inflation)
Nov 2026:  3,603,760,000  (maximum 0.8% a year inflation)
Nov 2030:  3,682,600,000  (maximum 0.4% a year inflation)
Forever:     3,761,440,000


Also, every share of BTS that is ever burned reduces all of these numbers by 1!  So every time a share of BTSX is ever burned for trasnaction fees, etc, this cap goes down!

Every time any delegate ever receives less than a full pay block reward, the hard cap goes down!

For example, we are going to have many 3% pay delegates, in with a few full pay delegates who are developers, marketing team, etc.
Every single time one of those 3% pay delegates signs a block, these numbers go down by 48.5, because that is 48.5 BTS that cannot be created (because the opportunity to pay the full 50 BTS was missed).



So what is the reality of how many BTS there will be?  Significantly less than these numbers!  These are a hard cap which occurs only if there are 101 full pay delegates and no shares of BTSX are burned ever.  Both of those are not true, and thus the actual amount of BTS will be much lower.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2015, 04:50:15 PM by Permie »
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Online Shentist

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i think we can consider the calculation from ander as "worst case", because at the moment we don't spend this much BTS each block! So i suspect it will be much less in total.

Offline mangou007

It normally should be less than that number....
This is the worst case scenario, if delegates are all at 100% pay rate and all 50 bts created remains and are not burned.

As for the transaction fee, they will be rearranged of course depending on the current value of 1 bts they can't stay at 0.5 bts every transaction. It will probably be submitted to vote by the community depending the value of the bts  ;)
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Offline svk

I have an estimated calculation of this up on bitsharesblocks, it takes into account the current inflation rates:

Estimated final supply:2,896,505,677 BTS
Theoretical maximum supply:3,682,265,458 BTS

http://bitsharesblocks.com/charts/supply

Edit: Just reread the OP and noticed you're talking about "10 years time", my numbers are for "forever"..
« Last Edit: May 24, 2015, 05:35:50 PM by svk »
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Offline vikram

For those that are interested, while working on the 2.0 migration I've added a command that will give the max supply assuming the specified constant average delegate pay rate as implemented in the 0.x series. It does not take into account burning of fees.

The [0, 100] numbers are the specified average delegate pay rate:

Code: [Select]
(wallet closed) >>> blockchain_calculate_max_supply 0
2,517,800,700.98564 BTS
(wallet closed) >>> blockchain_calculate_max_supply 5
2,573,382,800.47764 BTS
(wallet closed) >>> blockchain_calculate_max_supply 10
2,628,965,782.97764 BTS
(wallet closed) >>> blockchain_calculate_max_supply 15
2,684,548,387.04564 BTS
(wallet closed) >>> blockchain_calculate_max_supply 20
2,740,131,738.81179 BTS
(wallet closed) >>> blockchain_calculate_max_supply 25
2,795,714,592.66779 BTS
(wallet closed) >>> blockchain_calculate_max_supply 30
2,851,297,320.37979 BTS
(wallet closed) >>> blockchain_calculate_max_supply 35
2,906,880,048.09179 BTS
(wallet closed) >>> blockchain_calculate_max_supply 40
2,962,463,688.81179 BTS
(wallet closed) >>> blockchain_calculate_max_supply 45
3,018,046,666.31179 BTS
(wallet closed) >>> blockchain_calculate_max_supply 50
3,073,629,517.66779 BTS
(wallet closed) >>> blockchain_calculate_max_supply 55
3,129,212,116.73579 BTS
(wallet closed) >>> blockchain_calculate_max_supply 60
3,184,795,220.37979 BTS
(wallet closed) >>> blockchain_calculate_max_supply 65
3,240,378,197.87979 BTS
(wallet closed) >>> blockchain_calculate_max_supply 70
3,295,960,888.92595 BTS
(wallet closed) >>> blockchain_calculate_max_supply 75
3,351,544,116.21395 BTS
(wallet closed) >>> blockchain_calculate_max_supply 80
3,407,127,469.64595 BTS
(wallet closed) >>> blockchain_calculate_max_supply 85
3,462,710,326.00195 BTS
(wallet closed) >>> blockchain_calculate_max_supply 90
3,518,293,424.64595 BTS
(wallet closed) >>> blockchain_calculate_max_supply 95
3,573,876,018.71395 BTS
(wallet closed) >>> blockchain_calculate_max_supply 100
3,629,459,243.50195 BTS

The current average pay rate according to BitSharesBlocks seems to be about 37%.

Please note that my calculation has not been reviewed and may not be correct.

Offline Ander

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If Bitshares succeeds it will probably turn around and become profitable below 3 billion.
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Offline starspirit

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BTS was built on the idea that we could create a currency-like token that can make profits for owners instead of losses. As such, BTS self-identities as both a currency-like store of value and a profit-generating share. This dichotomy of purpose makes it hard for the external market to evaluate.

For a currency, constraints on supply are all-important as a store of value. For a share, all that matters is profitability and return, and the shares themselves can be far more mutable. Who is asking questions about how many shares Apple or Google will have in 10 years' time? It's only about profit and growth.

So what is BTS? I worry that trying to be both risks failure on both fronts. You limit dilution to look like a currency, and ultimately you can't compete against more agile businesses on funding and growth, and resulting profitability and dominance of the target space. You make changes to dilution, burn, and reserves to solve the business economics, and you lose any sense of a stable and secure currency.

I keep thinking that bitShares will ultimately need to offer multiple tokens built specifically to achieve different ends, even if we keep BTS as is.

Offline Permie

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BTS was built on the idea that we could create a currency-like token that can make profits for owners instead of losses. As such, BTS self-identities as both a currency-like store of value and a profit-generating share. This dichotomy of purpose makes it hard for the external market to evaluate.

For a currency, constraints on supply are all-important as a store of value. For a share, all that matters is profitability and return, and the shares themselves can be far more mutable. Who is asking questions about how many shares Apple or Google will have in 10 years' time? It's only about profit and growth.

So what is BTS? I worry that trying to be both risks failure on both fronts. You limit dilution to look like a currency, and ultimately you can't compete against more agile businesses on funding and growth, and resulting profitability and dominance of the target space. You make changes to dilution, burn, and reserves to solve the business economics, and you lose any sense of a stable and secure currency.

I keep thinking that bitShares will ultimately need to offer multiple tokens built specifically to achieve different ends, even if we keep BTS as is.
This is my view too

If BitShares was trying to be a currency then I would be a bitcoin Maximalist.
Network effect, Gresham law and all those "bigger and older = better" economics laws are all relevant to currencies and I think would push BitShares out of the market if that was where it was trying to compete.

I believe the perfect currency and the perfect business platform cannot exist on the same chain.
Currency wants trustlessness and security, whilst business wants agility and contractual agreements.

You can't write a contract on gold (sound money), and you shouldn't store all your money in stocks (which are reliant on trust and contractual agreements between several parties.)
I'm not sure if this is a sound analogy - it's hard to find physical comparisons to blockchains.
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Offline sittingduck

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BTS was built on the idea that we could create a currency-like token that can make profits for owners instead of losses. As such, BTS self-identities as both a currency-like store of value and a profit-generating share. This dichotomy of purpose makes it hard for the external market to evaluate.

For a currency, constraints on supply are all-important as a store of value. For a share, all that matters is profitability and return, and the shares themselves can be far more mutable. Who is asking questions about how many shares Apple or Google will have in 10 years' time? It's only about profit and growth.

So what is BTS? I worry that trying to be both risks failure on both fronts. You limit dilution to look like a currency, and ultimately you can't compete against more agile businesses on funding and growth, and resulting profitability and dominance of the target space. You make changes to dilution, burn, and reserves to solve the business economics, and you lose any sense of a stable and secure currency.

I keep thinking that bitShares will ultimately need to offer multiple tokens built specifically to achieve different ends, even if we keep BTS as is.

Enter brownie pts...????


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