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Offline AsymmetricInformation

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When will BitsharesX be released?
« on: May 20, 2014, 03:53:21 PM »

Offline santaclause102

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Re: When will BitsharesX be released?
« Reply #1 on: May 20, 2014, 04:35:38 PM »
funny. That would mean 60% it will be released after sept 1.? I will bet...

Offline luckybit

Re: When will BitsharesX be released?
« Reply #2 on: May 20, 2014, 05:30:53 PM »
funny. That would mean 60% it will be released after sept 1.? I will bet...
I think September is when I would expect to see it from the look of the source code but you never know how fast it could be completed.

BitsharesXT should be released very soon, but BitsharesX is a lot more ambitious. Assume we have to go through a similar process like we see now, maybe 2 months from the release of XT and we'll see the test of Bitshares X.

So I think it could be released in August or September.

It's very enticing to make the wager in favor of it being before Sept 1st.
« Last Edit: May 20, 2014, 05:32:31 PM by luckybit »
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Offline bytemaster

Re: When will BitsharesX be released?
« Reply #3 on: May 20, 2014, 06:07:38 PM »
I think it is difficult to estimate because of first/second derivatives of development speed.   

If you follow github you will see that we are having daily commits from multiple different developers and issues are being discovered and closed very quickly.   Then we will have a growing team of full time developers starting over the next 2 weeks and all of them working in one location toward a single release. 

This all makes me very excited about how things are progressing, but I would be unable to estimate any dates.   
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Offline BTSdac

Re: When will BitsharesX be released?
« Reply #4 on: May 21, 2014, 03:08:31 AM »
I think it is difficult to estimate because of first/second derivatives of development speed.   

If you follow github you will see that we are having daily commits from multiple different developers and issues are being discovered and closed very quickly.   Then we will have a growing team of full time developers starting over the next 2 weeks and all of them working in one location toward a single release. 

This all makes me very excited about how things are progressing, but I would be unable to estimate any dates.
I worry other team just copy the codes
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Offline zhao150

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Re: When will BitsharesX be released?
« Reply #5 on: May 21, 2014, 03:44:56 AM »
 ;D I'm copying the codes now.
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Offline jae208

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Re: When will BitsharesX be released?
« Reply #6 on: May 21, 2014, 04:47:39 AM »
my question is, when will bitshares xt be made liquid?
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Offline xeroc

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Re: When will BitsharesX be released?
« Reply #7 on: May 21, 2014, 06:45:43 AM »
Give them a few more weeks and checkout the sources and progress at githib .. they are currently bugfixing
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Offline AsymmetricInformation

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Re: When will BitsharesX be released?
« Reply #8 on: May 21, 2014, 12:50:33 PM »
It's very enticing to make the wager in favor of it being before Sept 1st.
Talk is cheap.

...I would be unable to estimate any dates.   
There's no need for you to worry about that. Estimating the date is what the market is for.

my question is, when will bitshares xt be made liquid?
Their market includes "ability to send BTS". Wouldn't that be the same thing?

Give them a few more weeks and checkout the sources and progress at githib .. they are currently bugfixing
You aren't betting, though? Its free money if you're right.


I myself have no idea when BitsharesX will be released. I know that, in the past, deadlines have been promised and pushed back several months, so I would not be surprised to see them pushed back by months yet again (a la Talebian 'Extremistan'). Instead I noticed that there seems to be investor anxiety, and an interminable debate on this forum as to the release date. This prediction market may be able to solve these problems.

Offline Simeon II

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Re: When will BitsharesX be released?
« Reply #9 on: May 21, 2014, 02:22:27 PM »
^^ AsymmetricInformation^^ are you involved with the development on the site you posted a link to?
 I just think it would be better to buy something that already has ‘determined’  (even if changing with each bet) odds. It is kind of hard to 1.come with reasonable odds 2. Wait somebody to hopefully take the other side.

Offline AsymmetricInformation

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Re: When will BitsharesX be released?
« Reply #10 on: May 21, 2014, 04:15:08 PM »
^^ AsymmetricInformation^^ are you involved with the development on the site you posted a link to?
No. Although I now feel the need to disclose a few things: I did help them come up with the particular wording of this contract, which is why I'm extra interested in this particular market. Also, I just found out (just now) that the administrators, who are interested in my research, are going to donate the fees they collect for these 3 markets to my Truthcoin project, which is very nice of them (although they [and I] believe that these fees will be very very small). However I still have no affiliation with that site. They've posted in my bitcointalk thread to talk about prediction markets, and sent me a few messages about my work.

If you read what I've published I think you'll understand that my primary motivation is just to get the word out about how cool PMs are and how they can save everyone a lot of time and effort. I'm really not trying to push the site or these specific markets, other than that this is an opportunity for investors to actually learn about when the software will actually come out.

I just think it would be better to buy something that already has ‘determined’  (even if changing with each bet) odds. It is kind of hard to 1.come with reasonable odds 2. Wait somebody to hopefully take the other side.
Since publishing my work, I've been in contact with several people about their PM ideas/websites. I always suggest the use of Market Scoring Rules, which just say "costs x for y shares" (where y shares are always worth 1 unit, for example 1 BTC). These are much easier to understand, as you say, and you don't need to wait for anyone to take the other side, again as you say.

Unfortunately most PM-operators don't want to use them. I have a couple theories as to why. In the lead is: people put in lots of effort coming up with their own custom way of doing the trading environment, and don't want to abandon it.

I placed the first 3 bets, though, not wanting to see the market stall out (after I myself worded it!). Its true that I have no idea when BitsharesX will be released, I assumed that it would be before September, but bet against that so that someone who also thought it would be released soon would have someone to bet against (me). I used the "advanced" mode which I actually found easier to understand (just set the probability and amount, similar to InTrade).

Offline Simeon II

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Re: When will BitsharesX be released?
« Reply #11 on: May 21, 2014, 05:31:31 PM »
‘If you read what I've published I think you'll understand that my primary motivation is just to get the word out about how cool PMs are and how they can save everyone a lot of time and effort. I'm really not trying to push the site or these specific markets, other than that this is an opportunity for investors to actually learn about when the software will actually come out.’

Yes, I know. I have read your whitepaper and the threads here and on bitcointalk. It is really sad that Dan do not to want to invest in developing PM DAC. Though, I do not agree with your opinion that this is because of such DAC will compete with BTS X…

Offline jae208

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Re: When will BitsharesX be released?
« Reply #12 on: May 21, 2014, 07:20:25 PM »
It's very enticing to make the wager in favor of it being before Sept 1st.
Talk is cheap.

...I would be unable to estimate any dates.   
There's no need for you to worry about that. Estimating the date is what the market is for.

my question is, when will bitshares xt be made liquid?
Their market includes "ability to send BTS". Wouldn't that be the same thing?

I was hoping it would be listed on some exchange and have a market cap on coinmarketcap too

Give them a few more weeks and checkout the sources and progress at githib .. they are currently bugfixing
You aren't betting, though? Its free money if you're right.


I myself have no idea when BitsharesX will be released. I know that, in the past, deadlines have been promised and pushed back several months, so I would not be surprised to see them pushed back by months yet again (a la Talebian 'Extremistan'). Instead I noticed that there seems to be investor anxiety, and an interminable debate on this forum as to the release date. This prediction market may be able to solve these problems.
http://bitsharestutorials.com A work in progress
Subscribe to the Youtube Channel
https://www.youtube.com/user/BitsharesTutorials

Offline xeroc

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Re: When will BitsharesX be released?
« Reply #13 on: May 21, 2014, 07:26:00 PM »
once you can spend it .. it will have value and thus might be listed @ coinmarketcap
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Offline jae208

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Re: When will BitsharesX be released?
« Reply #14 on: May 22, 2014, 03:10:41 AM »
once you can spend it .. it will have value and thus might be listed @ coinmarketcap

 +5%
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