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Messages - morpheus

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16
General Discussion / Re: bitSHARES - As True Shares and Not a Currency!
« on: February 11, 2016, 05:45:30 pm »
I still don't get it.  Are bitusd still collateralized the same way they are now or is this different?  Otherwise I don't see any difference in this approach other than you are restricting the transfer of bts, which sounds like a FED mandate.  I also don't see how the peg is managed without a feed unless collateralization is somehow different?



- all exchanges which has bts on their exchange confirmed that they are aware of migration

Not just that, but this:

- all exchanges must force users to withdraw all their BTS or lose it forever

That's not exactly true. If I have BTS on Poloniex post implementation I'd just sell them for bitUSD, withdraw, and buy BTS again on the DEX. It's an extra step but no real loss in value.

Yep. I suppose you'd have to request that the centralized exchange sells the BTS for bitUSD on the DEX on your behalf, then you'd have bitUSD (IOU) on the centralized exchange to do with as you wish. Of course the DEX and the centralized exchange would profit from taking a cut! This seems acceptable to me so long as enough announcements are made long enough before any changes are implemented.
A gateway simply offers to trade POLONIEX.BTS into real BTS in the DEX .. then you can continue trading BTS (IOUs) in poloniex and polo would still have its voting power .. doesn't really solve the problem of  people keeping their funds on centralized exchanges .. but it solves the issue of needing centralized exchanges for a price feed ..

This will go badly.  Those who are paying attention will sell.  Those who aren't paying attention will claim to have been screwed over by bitshares once again and bitshares reputation would be even further in the toilet. 

Also, I don't see how this will magically remove shares from the exchanges and magically create a 1:1 peg.  Don't get me wrong, I like the idea of focusing on 1 bitasset and maintaining a tight peg in that asset to get the system bootstrapped and I like the idea of getting shares removed from exchanges, especially btc38 cold storage, which is the 800 pound gorilla in the room, but I don't think it will go as smoothly as some of you think.

The only way I see this going well is to create a completely separate chain, like others have suggested.  Whether it is ever possible to merge the two together again remains to be seen.  It may be that both chains run indefinitely and the better chain wins.

17
General Discussion / Re: Ethereum price discussion
« on: February 10, 2016, 01:54:44 am »
Or maybe its the top and I look dump.

But for god sake do not lose all your collateral shorting this monster.

I agree shorting would be a bad idea right now.  Dont jump in front of a freight train.  Of course it may be a bad idea to chase higher at this point too.  I actually sold about 10% just to lock in some profits and as more or less a hedge in case this rally Peters out, but holding the bulk for higher prices.  The 15 dma looks like a good indicator on this one.  It could go much higher.  .02, .04, .07 who knows.

18
General Discussion / Re: Reddit thread on Stable Cryptocurrencies
« on: February 09, 2016, 10:04:57 pm »
I like the idea of using community funds to provide liquidity to bitusd only.  If successful, then maybe add cny and eur later.  Someone else brought this up the other day and the more I think about it, the more I think it is a good idea. 

Perhaps an SDR currency basket could be used like ethereum's maker is doing. 

We may find that the smartcoin exchange is only useful for a select few major fiat currencies, xdr, and perhaps gold and silver because of collateral requirements.  The PM and binary options markets may be better suited for investment and trade in other secondary assets.  It could actually be quite a good fit.

Crypto still does not have a good stable currency.  Its about time to use community funds to provide that. 

19
General Discussion / Re: Why there is so little trading volume on the DEX
« on: February 08, 2016, 06:48:15 pm »
EDIT: And do it as FBA.

What is FBA?

FBA = fee backed asset

Actually isn't it "Feature" Backed Asset? Fees don't have to originate from a feature, but the entire concept arose from the idea of selling the revenue stream from a feature, that feature being confidential transactions. It's a minor nit, since the revenue stream comes from using the feature, i.e. there is a fee for it's use and that is the source of the revenue. Fee Backed Asset doesn't convey the heart & soul of the concept IMO.
The idea of integrating BTS into MT4 is great, but I don't see how this could be fund by FBA. You could however take a percentage of trades from those that use MT4 simply buy putting another operation into transactions that transfer funds .. or some subscription model ..

Could MT4 not generate income through referral fees by users who sign up through MT4?  Isn't that the whole point of the referral program.

20
Futures down sharply this morning.  Both S&P 500 and oil testing lower support.






Quote
It is not just DB: as we have been warning for the past month, and especially last Friday, the blow out across the entire European bank sector is starting to resemble Lehman levels
Futures, Global Stocks Tumble As Europe Bank, Periphery Carnage Unfolds



The super bowl prediction market asset was successfully settled.  Check it out to get an idea of how these assets trade.http://cryptofresh.com/a/SPORTS.SBLAFC
Openledger

21
Lets see if the correlation lasts
Quote
For nearly all of 2016 so far, the narrative has been that if you want to know which way stocks are going, just ask crude.
S&P 500 And Crude Oil Back On Track


We have had our first few trades now in WTICRUDECheck it out

22
Here is how to take bitshares mainstream:



A dedicated binary options platform would be a great opportunity for an FBA (or worker proposal or combination of the two).  This should function more or less as a separate business funded by an FBA, with revenue generated from referral fees.  50% of the revenue dispersed to shareholders and 50% going back into the business for the following:
1.    Ongoing development and maintenance
2.   Marketing – google ads?
3.   Tech support
4.   Overhead
5.   Other – whatever I am missing

Obviously this would be quite expensive but IMO would be the ticket to mainstream adoption… this combined with a smartcoin lending market.

23
+5% Interesting Idea.

Looks like it has some potential too. Just 6 hours there was this article...

http://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/interview/ids-b2b-ceo-talks-pent-up-demand-for-bitcoin-binary-options/

Quote
IDS Option was created on 29 June 2015 and started offering Bitcoin binary option service to customers on 1 October of the same year, with 32000 members now.The average number of orders per day is keeping at 500-700 which is leading the market

Quote
The IDS B2B CEO explained that the bitcoin binary options platform... is expected to reach $5 million in assets by the end of the year.

https://idsoption.com/welcome

Yes and this is a centralized service also.  What we are lacking is a fancy smooth interface.  Great idea for a worker proposal or FBA.

A quick google search for 'bitcoin binary options' reveals several sites, non of which are truly decentralized, so not competition.

http://secondstrade.com/
https://btclevels.com/
http://btcoracle.com/

Nadex is probably the benchmark fiat platform for binary options, so not competition either, but the user experience is probably top notch.  Auger would be the only real decentralized competition and it looks like formidable competition at that. 

Creating a nadex-style user experience with a bitshares backend looks like it would be a lot of work, but could be the ticket to mainstream adoption.

24
General Discussion / Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« on: February 02, 2016, 06:37:22 am »
I have set SPORTS.SBLAFC to be resolved by commitee-trade.  I have created a new asset BTSPREDICT in response to https://www.reddit.com/r/BitShares/comments/43iyiq/will_bitshares_hit_12000000_in_market_cap_in/.  BTSPREDICT is to be resolved by the committee-account.  I have also modified WTICRUDE and SPFIVE to be resolved by the committee-account.  We will see which way of resolving works best.

Would it be possible to resolve by price feed?

25
General Discussion / Re: Bitshares price discussion
« on: February 02, 2016, 06:23:39 am »
I would filter by filled orders as asshole1 is probably just creating and canceling. 



Looks like a steady linear uptrend for now.  Hopefully we can stabilize at higher rates.

26
Some help keeping the btctalk thread on the first page would be greatly appreciated.  I have bumped it about as much as I can without getting annoying.  We need to keep bts in people's minds at btctalk.

I plan to post commentary on occasion about these assets.  We will see how much interest we get.

27
How to gain synthetic leverage with bitshares binary options.

If the S&P 500 is trading at or near 1875, then the SPFIVE binary option should trade around 0.5 bts/SPFIVE as it would be considered ‘at the money’.  Of course the actual price is dependent on liquidity and market participants.  Suppose you take out a short position at 0.5 bts/SPFIVE and suppose the S&P 500 loses half its value to trade at 937.5 by October.  At that point, SPFIVE market participants would likely determine that the chances are very low that the S&P 500 would get back to 1875 and they would subsequently price the option very low.  Suppose you could then buy your SPFIVE back at 0.1 bts (or lower) to cover the short position you took at 0.5 bts/SPFIVE.  That gives you a gain of 80% using the binary option trade vs a 50% gain with a standard, non-leveraged short.  Holding the option until expiration will give you a 100% gain.  However, if the S&P 500 finishes above 1875 at the end of the year, then you lose 100% if you are still short any SPFIVE, but this risk profile is similar to any other kind of leveraged financial product.  The point is binary options are inherently more volatile than the underlying asset, giving traders synthetic leverage, especially as the contract gets closer to the expiration date.

Greeks are often used to gauge the theoretical values of options as derived from performance of the underlying asset and time constraints.  I don’t fully understand them and don’t use them personally as I don’t see the need but they are useful to many traders. 

28
Interesting to see your technical analysis.
Personal offer : Would you be interested in collaborating on trading blue chip stocks ?
My personal forte has been fundamental analysis and am picking up on technical's.
I keep a personal fund of 100 USd, leverage at around 15 and make about 10-20 usd a day.
Would love to partner up and share info/thoughts.

I don't usually trade stocks, especially since I think they are mostly overvalued right now.  If anything I may short, but probably not.  Good luck though as I could be wrong.

29
Some Technical Analysis:

Crude has come back within the long-term range from 10 to 40.  Will it stay there is the question, especially with all the debasement of fiat currencies.




S&P 500 long-term uptrend still intact




Death Cross with bullish divergence and weekly support.  Will we see some range-bound consolidation here?  Iffy

30
General Discussion / Re: Bitshares price discussion
« on: January 29, 2016, 04:39:07 pm »
@morpheus pls correct me since I don't trade, but doesn't it seem like we're testing around 950 - 920 satoshis now? And that will set the possible resistance/support level in the short term? If it maintains as support it's good news and could set a bullish trend? I'm seeing the 4 day chart btw. I guess that would only be in the short term?

Looks like a breakout above the 50 dma (blue line).  Bts has stayed below this moving average for a few months now.  Next target is the 200 dma (red line), which bts has spent most of its trading life under.  Then we set up a possible golden cross.  IMO this breakout would be negated with a drop below 750, so plenty of room.


However, the upper trendline is acting like pretty solid resistance in fiat (cny), with a hard pullback at this line.


The relative stability from November to now has been a silence phase, as one trader on bitcointalk observes.  This has lead to longer term bull markets in bitcoin in the past on an occasion or two. 

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