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Messages - Empirical1

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781
General Discussion / Re: Decentralized Autonomous Charity
« on: April 04, 2014, 09:44:03 pm »
The Frictionless lottery!   :D

C'mon guys it's genius right?

https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=3881.msg50532#msg50532

782
DAC PLAY / Re: Lotto POS alt-coin idea
« on: April 04, 2014, 09:24:39 pm »
Follow the money.  There is no opt out in your system.  It would be break even on average and thus materially change nothing. 

It would just be like a government taxing everyone and then randomly giving it away proportional to how much you've been taxed. 

You exclude an entire class of uses who are practical and would never play the lottery but may own shares in a lottery. 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I agree with exactly what you said - 'break even on average...like government taxing everyone and randomly giving it away based on how much you've been taxed' I think that's brilliant!

That's the whole point of gambling. Never mind Break Even, People are willing to lose a lot of EV to play lotteries and casino games for the random chance to win!

My suggestion creates a frictionless lottery! (Nothing lost to shareholders, charities or operating expenses!)

Best of all there's nothing to justify charity wise like a normal lottery, because it's just re-distributed inflation.

In a normal lottery it's less than break even, the coins you've bought (lottery tickets) are being randomly given away, minus 50% in fees! So the whole company is bankrupt and a new alt-coin (lottery) starts again the following week.

----
Maybe it's easier to see if I calibrate an example of my POS exactly to a current lottery.

My POS guarantees the exact same payouts as the current big lottery, the disadvantage is that in mine your can't choose your numbers as the coins have a value pre-assigned, the advantage is mine is frictionless.

$100 million goes into the normal lottery this week
$100 million goes into my lottery this week

In the normal lottery $50 million is randomly awarded in prizes & $50 million is lost on various running expenses. So in a normal lottery you either won a prize or lost your money.

In my lottery $50 million is randomly awarded in prizes & $50 million is left over because it's frictionless. So in my lottery you had the same odds of winning exactly the same prizes for exactly the same cost, except if you lose your ticket is still worth 1/2 it's purchase price! (Which you can sell or keep for next weeks draw.)

Can you see how after a few weeks my lotteries jackpots would get bigger & bigger? And my losing lottery investments would be worth more and more each week too. It's the same as the current model, it's just frictionless.

---

The calibration can be tweaked but I simply tried to calibrate it closer to Bitcoin inflation, because at that level with fairly little new demand your coins or in this case frictionless lottery tickets should retain or increase in value while still offering exciting prizes.

Edit: My calibration was also designed for exactly the people you think it might exclude, people who want to own shares in a lottery, because the lower the % weekly payout the more of your ticket value your coin will retain, and the more people that are attracted to a POS frictionless lottery with a low % weekly payout the more valuable the alt-coin and your investment will become. Obviously the art would be finding that level that is exciting to gamblers and attractive to investors too. (Even though gamblers will inadvertently be investors and vice versa)

I hope I can sway you on this one.



783
General Discussion / Re: Decentralized Autonomous Charity
« on: April 04, 2014, 08:07:09 pm »
Do you have any thoughts on the revenue distribution of the charity lottery?

Existing lotteries on my side of the world, don't market themselves as charities and they give circa 28% of total revenues to 'good causes' which the msm/politicians will claim is mostly charitable & they take 0.5% of total revenues as profit.



I think if we give less to charity and much more to shareholders than a traditional lottery, while at the same time marketing ourselves as more of a charity than a lottery, it might be a hard sell.

Well, a charity DAC lottery could give 50% to good works, 49.5% to winners, and give the remaining 0.5% to shareholdsers.

Hmm I would maybe give 30% to charity, maybe 5% to shareholders and 65% to players but I would just call it a normal lottery and advertise the charity element strongly.

Then we can say we give more than regular lotteries to everybody! We give more to charity (and directly to charity not via government which is a big plus), more to players and more to shareholders, all made possible by efficiency savings!




784
DAC PLAY / Re: Lotto POS alt-coin idea
« on: April 04, 2014, 07:57:42 pm »
Good idea to allocate shares in genesis block as jackpot rewards, as there was not too much init jackpots in prize pool to back up the bets. This will be helpful to make this DAC popular I think.

But I didn't get your idea in the brackets, coin is decomposable, ticket might be better.

No I mean I think you should do a normal lottery like you are going to do.

But I mean another idea is to have POS alt-coin where your coins are the lottery tickets.

Maybe release a billion POS coins that are 'coloured coins' and not divisible.
(As in each coin is identifiable. 1, 2, 3... Up to a billion.)

Then every month 8 million new coins are created but they are not given to miners or to everybody equally, but instead they are the lottery prizes.

This way you don't have to ever buy a ticket.
Just buy however many coins you want and keep them in your wallet. (Everybody will hoard their coins pushing up the price.) Then when the lottery draw happens, and the winning number is 76890,
And you have coin 76890 of 1 billion in your wallet then you win some of the new coins.

(As long as demand for the lottery DAC/alt-coin increased by at least 10% a year the coins in your wallet won't lose any value even if you don't win. If the Alt-coin is popular your coins may be very valuable even if you don't win whenever you want to sell them.)

785
General Discussion / Re: Decentralized Autonomous Charity
« on: April 04, 2014, 07:29:02 pm »
Do you have any thoughts on the revenue distribution of the charity lottery?

Existing lotteries on my side of the world, don't market themselves as charities and they give circa 28% of total revenues to 'good causes' which the msm/politicians will claim is mostly charitable & they take 0.5% of total revenues as profit.




I think if we give less to charity and much more to shareholders than a traditional lottery, while at the same time marketing ourselves as more of a charity than a lottery, it might be a hard sell.

786
Ie. This is just an application of POS share systems.

The goal for Bitshares would be to create the dominant marketplace/exchange where they are traded.

Bitshares Music would be the  Itunes/Youtube of this space and if the POS's were denominated in something like BitUsd all the better.

787
Record companies already have contracts in place with artists and have admin & accounting systems in place that manage and process various revenue streams (record & concerts sales, merchandising etc.) which are then partly distributed to the artist based on the contract terms. (The record companies are kept 'fairly' honest in this regard by auditors and because if they were cooking the books too much other artists wouldn't sign with them.)

While it's possible for investors to buy shares in some of these record labels if they are publicly listed, it's not really accessible for fans. It also hasn't been practical till now to issue shares for individual artists, albums or songs.

POS share systems change everything!

Record companies in agreement with their artists can now reduce their risk, raise capital & get fans interested & involved not just in consuming but marketing their artists too! 

The record company will issue a POS, with a contract attached, in which they agree to distribute X % of various revenue streams as dividends to the POS much the same way they already pay their artists.
(As I said the degree to which they are perceived to hold up the agreement will determine how willing fans/investors are to support future POS artists, albums and songs issued by said record label.)

This model will also have a big application in funding movies in the future too.

Personally I would recommend maybe contacting Hollywood Stock Exchange HSX.com as they have a nice interface and userbase already used to do something similar for fun. (If we work in combination we might be able to become the youtube/itunes of this space & require each new IPO distributes % share to Bitshares Music holders.)

Whether or not Bitshares gets involved here I can see quite clearly that this is the future. (For the benefits I mentioned, reduce risk, raise capital, and the completely new USP (which Bitshares Music already identified) of have invested fans actively marketing their favourite artists.)

(The benefit of this vs. existing Bitshares Music is this gives access to already established artists, multiple incl. offline revenue streams (Album Sales, concerts, merchandise) & companies who will establish a track record of honouring contracts across a range of offerings, not just a small share of a specific online revenue stream from largely unknown artists who will if successful have to sign with a centralised management/record label anyway. Plus the record labels already have a huge marketing machine in place that will be complimentary to the viral and network marketing the fans will be engaged in.)

788
If people are willing to mine other alt-coins but get paid in POS blackcoin why not create a third party operator/service through which you can route your youtube, iTunes and amazon revenue payments and get paid in Bitshares.

If it can be made more private than the traditional payment methods there should be a market for it.
Plus the fact that you can convert to BitUSD/BitGold etc. should make it more attractive than any other POS trying to pull this off.

789
General Discussion / Re: Decentralized Autonomous Charity
« on: April 04, 2014, 03:40:27 am »
" in a way that will grow garner positive press"

Could just as easily garner negative press given a hostile reporter. jealous competitor, or any number of other variables.

Positive press relative to a pure lotto or gambling DAC.   Think little old ladies at the local church bingo night.

I disagree on this one, marketing a for profit charity as just a 'charity' will be received negatively, perhaps doubly so as it's not really a for profit charity either but a normal business that gives a percentage of its revenue to charity.


790
General Discussion / Re: Board of Directors vs Mining Pool Operators
« on: April 03, 2014, 09:07:19 pm »

One of those air-drop coins should target pre-teen girls and make their coin redeemable for crappy music, cheap fashion items, and utterly meaningless knick-knacks. That would get the market going in a hurry.


 +5% You joke but but if One Direction released 'One Direction POS Coin', where you got a discount for paying for merchandise and tickets with it and where each coin was also a lottery ticket that could win you signed stuff, backstage passes and a day with the band etc. I imagine it would be worth a lot and crypto-currency would spread pretty quickly in that market.

Edit: Even if they don't have those advantages I predict in the next year we will see at least one of the following, - One Direction/Justin Bieber Coin


This is exactly what PTS and AGS holders are:  A demographic MUCH more likely to be good supporters.  These block chains are like mailing codes that let you target your shares to the people you want to reach much, much, much more precisely than using Silicon Valley mailing codes!

It's like dropping shares with terminal homing DAC-savvy supporter seekers on them!


As far as the value of offering PTS/AGS holders stakes in coins for the main reason that they'd be a supportive demographic, I'm not convinced of that yet, unless the DAC is quite complicated? I think awarding coins to Dogecoin holders (I'm not one of them) if you wanted a viral marketing and a network effect boost seems like it would make more of an impact.

Edit: Hmm, having said that, I can see a coin that needs to start out with a wide distribution from a solid, intelligent active community, (which is hard for a POS) such as Truthcoin for example would be better off distributing shares to PTS & AGS holders than anyone else.  (Personally I'm not investing in PTS/AGS because I think many 3rd parties are going to include AGS/PTS though but because the DAC's Invictus and partners are already working on themselves are so exciting and seem so well put together that I think they'll have the quality + first mover advantage + network effect to deliver Bitcoin-like dominance in a lot of key industries/areas.) 

Lets address the issues here:

1) front running ... this particular issue does not apply given my matching algorithm.  The person placing the order will get the same price regardless of what any other party does.   In fact, one could argue that the blockchain earns revenue by intentional front-running and that the shareholders are the ones to benefit from it.   


As you can see here... if you see a low ask... you cannot front run it by placing a higher bid to be the first in line to get that low price.   If you see a high bid, you cannot front run it either.   

2) reordering .... this particular issue is not possible, because orders are sorted/matched deterministically...

3) your only control is excluding bids or asks.  Fortunately the market making algorithm also makes this form of manipulation irrelevant as well because it will not effect the price people get for their orders.   Remember, you get what you asked for or nothing.  When you place a bid the assumption is that the offer is good for at least a couple of blocks and therefore don't trade if you need depend upon high frequency noise.   

The result of this matching algorithm will be a wider bid/ask spread but a more meaningful one.

Awesome!  :)

791
General Discussion / Re: Draft Talk for NYC [VIDEO]
« on: April 03, 2014, 03:50:18 pm »
If you're worried about offending a pro-Bitcoin crowd, you may want to

- Lead with a sentence, in the 'bitcoin as a company' paragraph,  that points out what a fantastic innovation & success Bitcoin is, then say 'but as the first iteration of the technology, it's not without its flaws...

- Point out that for the value of the crypto-economy to grow that new products, services and especially DAC's need to be able to flourish but that Bitcoin is not designed to have these things built on top of it, nor would it be worth the risk to Bitcoin to do so, and therefore -
[quote ]At bitshares.org we are building many different decentralized companies 'on bespoke/individual/separate blockchains' that improve upon Bitcoin '& add value to the crypto-economy' in the only way that really matters to the market:  we make Bitcoin them profitable. We do this by minimizing expenses, maximizing utility, and returning power to the shareholders.'[/quote]

792
General Discussion / Re: Draft Talk for NYC [VIDEO]
« on: April 03, 2014, 03:10:30 pm »
 +5% Great stuff! 

You gave a great explanation on what an exciting improvement Bitshares is vs. Bitcoin & some of the numbers involved, but besides saying 'using proven business models...implemented in more efficient and trustworthy way' I don't think you've given them the same appetite whetting explanation/example with regards to what an exciting improvement DAC's will be over real world counterparts.

Obviously it's implied but even just mentioning specifically as you do in the opening of the Bitshares videos, something like 'imagine the potential savings in salaries, office space, equipment, utilities and other expenses plus the reduced opportunity for fraud, government interference and seizures' and then even better if you could give a specific example. 


793
General Discussion / Re: Board of Directors vs Mining Pool Operators
« on: April 03, 2014, 11:47:29 am »
I have a bunch of technical analysis of the new changes, which I've placed in my thread starting at reply #24; here is the link: https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=3895.msg50062#msg50062

Here's the high-level overview:  I had serious doubts about the voting process, and I made a strong technical case for randomly selecting the representatives.  However, bytemaster's proposal in this thread incorporates enough of my ideas that I think it's basically secure, and I'm willing to support it.  However, there are a few possible abuses I want to keep out of the BitShares X market, in particular:  Transaction censorship, private placement, front-running, and re-ordering.

Front-running  >:( It's such a huge problem in the real trading world. The lengths people will go to and fortunes they're willing to spend to get order information just the tiniest fraction of a second faster than others is mind blowing. Hope you guys can solve this one.

794
General Discussion / Re: Board of Directors vs Mining Pool Operators
« on: April 02, 2014, 08:52:54 pm »
Well remember that with TAPOS the chain with the most votes piled on is the winner no matter what. Automatic "exception" mechanism for if forks happen due to bad directors.

Edit: Ok cool, yeah just read up on it, the 51% attack isn't really a problem with TAPOS.

795
General Discussion / Re: Board of Directors vs Mining Pool Operators
« on: April 02, 2014, 08:17:58 pm »
What is the worst thing a director could do before his power is removed?
What if one director was really controlling X% of total block generation?

If the worst thing they could do is not so bad, cool, I like it. 
If though directors or a group of colluding directors could do something really bad then what about having a decentralised fail-safe dispute resolution system?

As you know Truthcoin Prediction market is apparently able to reach decentralised consensus on truth using SVD.
TBH I don't understand enough about it yet, but I feel it may be inefficient (speed-wise) to apply to many betting markets and certainly impossible/ridiculous to consider using with regards to block signing, however it looks like it can be a great tool to resolve a dispute or make a truly decentralised decision.

So provided the cost/difficulty associated with lodging a dispute is incredibly high and the cost for lodging a false dispute is incredibly high then we could perhaps have a fairly centralised but super-fast system knowing that if something did go wrong it would be possible to reverse/fix it using a truly decentralised consensus of the entire network?

Example:

So imagine 2 Big bitcoin mining pools colluded and performed a huge double spend at block X. What if even a small 1% hashing pool could risk it's funds and lodge a dispute. Then block generation would be paused, to vote on -  'Remove Mining Pool A&D, rewind to Block X-1'. Then the entire Bitcoin network (holders of Bitcoin) could vote. The Truthcoin SVD thingy would say consensus is yes. Then the network would have been able to resolve that dispute and the 2 Big Mining pools would have failed. (If the 1% hashing pool had lodged a false dispute, in the process holding up the network for a few hours,  then they would lose a fortune in funds that they would have had to commit to lodge the dispute in the first place, thereby ensuring nobody would ever hold up the network unnecessarily.)

Edit: (As in we delegate our vote to a director,  except during a dispute, in which case we make votes as individual shareholders again - if we are available to vote in the time window allowed for a dispute - and then SVD determines consensus.)

Um, I'm not very technical, but something like that.

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