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Messages - Empirical1.2

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1321
General Discussion / Re: ShapeShift useful for bitUSD?
« on: February 04, 2015, 02:48:52 pm »

"Instant Rate 1.00 BTC = 14.9063 BITUSD"  :-X

Server probably has its clock set 2 years in the future.

 :-X :-X :-X :-X :-X :-X :-X :-X
Please forget commenting on the others , make our product better , or there will be time to see our price being laughed at by somebody else .
There's always time for a joke ..
If you're not ok with BM joking and actually being part of the community .. why not remove your votes from his delegate ..

 +5%

1322
General Discussion / Re: Please Provide bitOIL Feeds!
« on: February 04, 2015, 02:23:55 pm »
I presume these aren't useful, I don't know what you guys require but that looks live

http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/crude.php

1323
General Discussion / Re: Simple Binary Prediction Market Discussion
« on: February 04, 2015, 11:53:48 am »
Could there be some people unable to find any settlement due to people who lose their wallets/forget about their trade/arrested/die/other?

If so, I forget how prediction markets work but maybe after 30 days the system can force settle at 1 or 0 depending on if the majority of trades were settled above 0.8 or below 0.2 in the 7 days after the event finished.

This should get everyone to settle at very close to 1 or 0 right after the event and it is very difficult to game as there's a three week period in which people could seek delegate intervention which will probably never be needed.

You could also charge a fee to losers who waited 30 days to encourage early settlement at very close to 1 or 0 too.

1324
 +5% Great :)

1325
General Discussion / Re: Help get BitGold on every BTS exchange!
« on: February 04, 2015, 10:30:06 am »
Bter has 88 entries but <50% have >0 volume today and <20 have >1BTC volume so they're making <$1 a day in fees on >75% of their entries today.

I imagine other exchanges aren't too dissimilar and they're worried about adding duds. BitShares could consider just asking for a trial period & guaranteeing a minimum turnover and backing it up with a deposit or even just paying a small fee. Considering how little they make on so much of their entries this should be affordable and maybe seperate BitGold from the noise of all those asking to get listed on some exchanges.

1326
 +5% Great  :)

1327
With Brian we had 1 guy costing circa $10k a month who probably spent an average of $10k a month (badly) so he was overpaid and under-performing.

At the current CAP I would prefer 1 main guy getting $3000 in personal salary with a budget of $12 000.
Then we'd have budget for a new animated video every 2 weeks, always have an advert on a top crypto-currency site (Coindesk/CMC) with our latest feature as well as extra money leftover for other initiatives. We'd only have to monitor 1 main guy and $3000 at least incentivises a bit of  competition. You'd also have $4500  left over for 3 smaller marketing delegate positions.

At the current CAP our system of 9 marketing delegates with $1500 each is hard to keep track of and if they want any personal salary for their efforts their budget becomes miniscule and takes ages to accrue.

However given that's what we have the more initiatives that add accountability and helps them communicate the better.

You are only going to attract bad talent at that low pay rate. You can get bad even at $10k, it's just less likely at higher rates. Finding someone who can work well in the crypto space unless they are inspired by it is a challenge though, which is why I think the model to hire someone for the task is inefficient.

Delegates are inspired entrepreneurs that have the 'can-do' spirit to make things happen.

We are magical beings that can turn nothing into something.

A guy seeking a job in marketing willing to accept that kind of rate of pay is more than likely going to be really ineffective.

I see the delegates work tend to be complimentary and not overlapping. Some are not even really considered marketing, but their activities accomplish it. They are largely operating on the hope, belief, and prayer that BTS market cap goes up and their delegate stake increases in value. That is enough to motivate anybody to want to see BTS better perform. The motivational dynamic in my estimation is perfect.

There is enough of us to keep an eye on things.. look what happened just last week. One wasn't cutting it and they got the boot. If there are others it will show, and the remaining cream will rise to the top.

My 2.9 cents anyways.

Jonathan

I think it's great if we have the passionate entrepreneurs you are talking about looking to increase the value of their future delegate stake but I don't think that's an excuse for expecting them to work for free now.
Some of the talented guys like Method can't be expected to give too much of their time for nothing and there's little they can do with a single delegate budget.  I'd like to be able to reward at least 1/2 of those people with a bit of a personal incentive and a decent budget.

However if the current system is slowly ticking over, coming together and we have inspired delegates who are happy working for nearly free for a few months while being constantly accountable that's great.



At the current CAP our system of 9 marketing delegates with $1500 each is hard to keep track of and if they want any personal salary for their efforts their budget becomes miniscule and takes ages to accrue.


9?  I count 5, myself, methodx, rgcrypto and bitscape's first one (second one isn't in yet) and the Chinese group.

Yeah sorry I meant we should have at least 9/10 marketing delegate positions to do anything meaningful but that I think a few delegates with a bit of a personal incentive and bigger budget is better than 9/10 individuals at the current CAP.

1328
General Discussion / Re: I'm Nervous, Please Reassure Me
« on: February 03, 2015, 08:59:10 pm »

(Also: Bitcoin is really at this same despair point right now as well I think, so many true believers have questioned everything.  Of course, both for Bitshares or Bitcoin, it could get better or it could get worse).

Yeah this is what tempers my enthusiasm, I'm unsure/pessimistic about Bitcoin. They seem to  be on a very clear longterm downtrend and they can drag most crypto's down in $ terms with them to a certain point.

Sometimes pessimism is justified sometimes not, in Bitcoin's case I think it is. I'm hoping a lot of their issues are due primarily to volatility which BitAssets help solve.

1329
General Discussion / Re: I'm Nervous, Please Reassure Me
« on: February 03, 2015, 08:21:25 pm »
The current level of pessimism is understandable but also reassuring.

This is July 2014 all over again, you'd never seen so many pessimistic people which is why when BitAssets were finally released there was a big upside move.

Everyday I woke up thought about whether the pessimism was justified and then bought more BTSX at 0.000016

I decreased my position over the whole VOTE/Dilution/Merger thing but now have a max BTS position again. If I didn't I'd be buying more now. Writing this post has made me realise I can short BitAssets and take a leveraged position.

I will be very flexible though and respond to what competitors do in the next month or two too.

Personally I'm really excited about the blockchain based gambling & will divest when I see that.



1330
General Discussion / Re: I'm Nervous, Please Reassure Me
« on: February 03, 2015, 07:47:24 pm »
China is the biggest market atm by far.


spoiler alert : BTS is gonna go viral in several months due to some major promotion effort in China , unless we do something to drag their feet . A crowd funding company already got millions of USD of VC to operate their operation on BTS . That's once in a life time opportunity for BTS .

As a matter of fact , all they want is no more surprises , a stable wallet and protocol ,  everything will work out eventually .

There are other opportunities (gambling) that need to be considered for another DAC perhaps imo and time is of the essence with our current developments but if China is happy I am happy.

1331
Everyone is praying that a 1.0 release is going to reverse a crumbling bitshares share price... ask yourself, what happens if the price doesn't lift after the release?  Most likely the 1.0 release is already baked into the price... Markets are discounting mechanisms

Our share price isn't crumbling. It fell as a result of dilution being priced in and has since maintained a fairly stable BTC value, only declining recently vs. BTC on their Coinbase, US exchange announcement.

If they give a specific release date it's likely a lot of the gains will be made leading up to it but generally strong crypto development news is greeted with significant gains.

Looking at last year, we all knew BitAssets were coming but BTSX stayed under $20 million and then gained 500% in a week leading up to and on the back of the BitAsset release.

This isn't as big as that but a lot of positive developments should hopefully be coming together and I expect a decent price increase as a result. How much we hold and where we go from there will be based on the perception of how much BitAssets are being used, adopted & growing.

1332
General Discussion / Re: Consensus on the list of delegates
« on: February 03, 2015, 05:04:58 pm »
If Bitcoin had a 101 delegate system how much would you have to bribe an Andreas Antonopolous or an Amir Taaki delegate to sabotage Bitcoin?

What about someone like Max Keiser who might choose to be a delegate for personal reasons despite having a net worth of $X million +?

If you were elected a delegate in NXT, would it be easy to bribe you?

Does game theory account for people that can't be bought?

1333
General Discussion / Re: Consensus on the list of delegates
« on: February 03, 2015, 03:54:39 pm »
People who accept bribes think there's a high likelihood they won't get caught.

The delegates don't know who they're screwing over in an attack but the shareholders would  know who the majority of them are.

Finding a large group of people willing to take this risk is almost completely implausible especially high trust individuals who are elected based on established reputations.

If majority accepted the bribe then you will earn nothing because your blocks will be ignored. Game theory tells that you will follow the majority as long as risk of being caught and voted-out is below some threshold. You don't know what threshold the others chose so you start observing if Bob included voting-out transactions. With non-zero probability Bob can be a honest delegate but he picks all non-voting-out transactions (pure random). What will you do? More likely you will think that Bob is rogue. There is a bias towards scenario when delegates decide to abuse the power. Sybil attack makes it less risky to go the bad route.

I deleted the post as I don't actually know how it works in practice in terms of detection but if it is possible to discern who was involved in the attack, my point was not only do they risk being voted out but there's an additional personal safety/health risk associated with deliberately messing with other people's money if you are publicly known.

High trust, high reputation individuals are unlikely to be bribeable en masse. It would have to be massive to offset loss of future earnings potential and destruction of personal reputation + you have the additional risk of retribution if you can be detected.

1334
General Discussion / Re: Centralization of mining discussion
« on: February 03, 2015, 03:16:28 pm »
Makes me appreciate DPOS even more:

http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-elite-meet-secret-island-bilderberg-style-retreat/

 +5% Bitcoin is toast for this and many other reasons.

The sooner we forge our own path and stop trying to pander to and scoop up crumbs in their shadow the better. Bitcoin is about as decentralised as a brick.

1335
This seems relevant.


At first I was all for the gambling idea, but then thinking about this chart I realized that there really isn't a market need for it, you can gamble with bitcoin. We have to do what others aren't doing. We have to offer something nobody else has - bitassets are a good start.
Also, we have to avoid disharmony.

The market need is due to the fact that it's one of the biggest Bitcoin industries but it's plagued by centralised hit and run options, which blockchain based solutions solve and they have the problem of volatility.

25/01/2015 - http://www.online-casinos.com/news/13074-online-gambling-experiencing-bitcoin-struggle

Quote
The question being asked by those using Bitcoin for gambling is whether the declining or volatile nature of the currency is worth the stress. The punter who uses the virtual coinage may be thinking they have won at the casino or card room but have lost on the currency value. This may impact the volume of bets placed with Bitcoin at online gambling sites that offer the coins as fair trade. The following of the ups and downs of the money for the online gambling operators must be a constant threat to profitability and sustainable growth

Centralised gambling operators are currently engaged in hugely convoluted mechanisms for accepting currency. It's one of the few places where there is an immediate market need for BitAssets and they greatly simplify things.

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/oct/03/bet365-profit-china-online-gambling

Bet365 is a company with $350 million annual profit and $40 Billion turnover.

Quote
• Bet365 frequently changes its website addresses in China, thereby side-stepping attempts by local regulators to close sites down.

• The company has constructed a complex payments system that allows it to take bets placed using China’s currency, the renminbi.


Sure sounds like they would benefit from using DNS & BitCNY.

I think it's good we don't pursue this at the moment. I'll take the short term 1.0 price spike and see what the Chinese market can do in the next 2-3 months in terms of adoption but the market need is obvious to me and BTS will be outcompeted by a real SuperDAC.

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