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Messages - oldman

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346
General Discussion / Re: GSS - Genesis Stake Statistics
« on: September 26, 2014, 02:15:32 am »
xeroc, give this a try.

$ cat ./btsx_stake.py
Code: [Select]
#!/usr/bin/env python
import json
with open('genesis_btsx.json', 'rt') as f:
  b = [ i[1]/500000.0 for i in json.load(f)['balances']]
def gt(b, t):
  print "%10d addresses > %10d BTSX"%(len([i for i in b if i>t]),t)

print "total supply: %s, number of addresses: %s"%(sum(b), len(b))
for i in range(10):
  gt(b, 100000*2**i)


Code: [Select]
$ ./btsx_stake.py
total supply: 1999999999.94, number of addresses: 57973
      2365 addresses >     100000 BTSX
      1379 addresses >     200000 BTSX
       792 addresses >     400000 BTSX
       431 addresses >     800000 BTSX
       182 addresses >    1600000 BTSX
        60 addresses >    3200000 BTSX
        26 addresses >    6400000 BTSX
        15 addresses >   12800000 BTSX
         8 addresses >   25600000 BTSX
         2 addresses >   51200000 BTSX


This is much more in line with my intuition, for what it's worth.

347
General Discussion / Re: dat peg doe
« on: September 26, 2014, 02:12:04 am »
+5%

I am impressed... congrats to the devs!

Is that... $0.30 BTSX I smell on the horizon?

You really have to wonder how quickly BTSX will climb if bitUSD/CNY/GLD/SLV all start gaining traction simultaneously.

The positive feedback loop would be quite a ride - a few hundred million or a couple billion in each asset would make $10 BTSX a reality very quickly.


These numbers are totally unrealistic. I think over 3-5 years it might be realistic to see $10 but not this year or next.

Yes, it will take a couple of years for the platform to mature and bitAssets to compile enough of a history for folks to trust the pegging mechanism.

Once bitAsset demand picks up the rise of BTSX is going to be something to watch - $1 -> $10 will be epic.

I'm still plugging $1/BTSX by Q1 2015.... perhaps $10/BTSX by 2016 if all goes well.

348
General Discussion / Re: The Taxman Cometh
« on: September 26, 2014, 02:07:38 am »
Bitshares is globally accessible, so there are a myriad of tax jurisdictions to contend with.

If crypto-derivatives gain any traction tax authorities are likely to treat them as any other assets.

Meaning trading BTSX for bitUSD is a taxable event.

As there is no guidance on this, and is not likely to be for some time, the best insurance the devs can give users is some kick ass automated book keeping.

That way, a few years down the road we won't have to read about desperately insolvent governments lynching wealthy early adopters over tax fraud.

Just toss 'em the csv printout from the railing of your yatch....

349

Are there plans to make a BitBasket that will be pegged to the basket of commodities used to calculate the CPI?

This is perhaps a historic opportunity to create a universal currency pegged to the world average CPI... interesting concept.

Easy to implement and see if there's any interest.

350
General Discussion / Re: NuBits
« on: September 26, 2014, 01:51:28 am »
Regardless, I think it's time for Bitshares to really up our marketing game. I have heard we've been waiting to fix bugs and the software is ready for prime time. I think now that we have competition we should advance this timeline and the time is now! Despite our opinions on being a better solution to the same problem, the better technological/ideological solution doesn't always win!

Which would you buy?

"Nubits" (mmm... pet food?)

"Bitshares" (mmm... Bitcoin stock?)

Time and branding are favorable. No need to rush.

351
General Discussion / Re: dat peg doe
« on: September 25, 2014, 09:07:46 pm »
 +5%

I am impressed... congrats to the devs!

Is that... $0.30 BTSX I smell on the horizon?

You really have to wonder how quickly BTSX will climb if bitUSD/CNY/GLD/SLV all start gaining traction simultaneously.

The positive feedback loop would be quite a ride - a few hundred million or a couple billion in each asset would make $10 BTSX a reality very quickly.

352
I'm trying to conceive a scenario in which some entity scoops BitsharesX, releases a knock-off and screws AGS/PTS/Community.

Can't come up with one that is viable.

At this point in time I can't see another group of devs jumping in and doing a better job at developing/marketing the platform, ie. winning the race.

In the future, once the platform is mature, I can't see another group of devs copying and adding enough gee-whiz to lure the community while simultaneously screwing the community.

In between, I can't see an attack or flaw that the devs/delegates could not fix/fork themselves.

Unless I'm missing something obvious this risk seems to be an armchair issue rather than something investors (myself included) need to worry about.

And finally... if someone rips off the code, what could they possibly call their knock-off that would compete with the Bitshares branding (CitiBank? Wells Fargo? BOA?).

353
General Discussion / The Taxman Cometh
« on: September 25, 2014, 02:15:13 am »
Taxation is an issue yet to be addressed and may not be for a while.

But we can be sure the taxman will want his share at some point, and it would be terrible if folks had created a lot of wealth via Bitshares only to end up in serious trouble with the local tax thugs.

I'm not sure if the client/trading platform has any transaction tracking/exporting functionality, but if not, this should be added prior to mass release/marketing push.

Not a big deal - just need the ability to export trade history in .csv and perhaps a few the more common accounting software formats (ie. Quickbooks).

Taxation is something that is not well represented in the crypto space and this is yet another opportunity for the Bitshares platform to shine and widen the moat.

If users have an easy/automatic/slick way to track P&L for taxation and performance purposes it is one more feature to drive adoption.

354

We just need bitUSD, at a market cap in the millions, and a price keeping to a range of .99 to 1.01, and then we have something very powerful.

This. Just this.

355
General Discussion / Re: Ripple Deal
« on: September 24, 2014, 05:20:18 pm »
Is it just a cheap way to move funds from A to B?
*confirmed*
Can someone ELI5 Ripple?

What does this do for the bank or it's customers?

Is it just a cheap way to move funds from A to B?

yes,move A to B,without expensive SWIFT network.
saving fee.
And can be regulated by the government.(KYC policy).

Much appreciated, thank you.

356
General Discussion / Re: NuBits
« on: September 24, 2014, 05:09:23 pm »
I'm not sure the goal of crypto systems should be to recreate the fiat systems that have gone before.
If NuBits recreates what the Federal Reserve has done since its founding in 1913, it will be a smashing success. An entire country (plus many others, via pegged currencies) have had relative stability under the US dollar. Of course, there are valid criticisms to fractional reserve, but the Fed's dollar has lasted over 100 years now. That's a pretty good run for anything crypto.

Why is a nation's currency considered a success if lasts one or two generations (~ 100 years)?

Most fiat currencies are dangerously close to a Ponzi scheme... I hate to use the Ponzi analogy but all good Ponzi's do very well initially and then implode.

Every fiat reserve currency in human history has done well and then imploded.

In this case, due to the lack of democratic controls, the decay may be much more rapid.

I can see what NuShares/NuBits is trying to be... just don't think it will end well based on the history of the protocol they are implementing.

357
General Discussion / Re: NuBits
« on: September 24, 2014, 04:07:06 pm »
In 1980 when demand for the US dollar was in decline the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to the high teens. People were quite happy to buy dollars and treasury notes to receive these high interest payments. Far from being an unsustainable action, it saved the US dollar from hyperinflation at that time. 34 years later it remains viable.

The Nu network's mechanisms for handling booms and busts in the level of demand for currency are classic, having long been demonstrated to be effective in the management of other currencies.

What is revolutionary about Nu is the decentralized control of these proven currency management mechanisms. Shareholders dispersed throughout the world simply configure their vote in their client and mint. Their votes are recorded in the blockchain and the protocol changes supply and interest rates accordingly.

This particular mechanism has failed rather spectacularly more often than not.

Rome, Spain, France... perhaps now the USA.

I'm not sure the goal of crypto systems should be to recreate the fiat systems that have gone before.

358
General Discussion / Re: Ripple Deal
« on: September 24, 2014, 03:52:03 pm »
Can someone ELI5 Ripple?

What does this do for the bank or it's customers?

Is it just a cheap way to move funds from A to B?

359
There have been many negative predictions regarding Bitcoin's demise so I don't expect to be taken seriously but here's my take.

Three fundamental factors are in play:

Firstly people are realising virtually no one is using Bitcoin for payments and likely will not, why would they given the hoops they jumped through to buy it.

Secondly without a valid payment example, cryptos don't have consumer support and consequently investors have tacitly recognised that no one other than the crypto community gives a damn about regulations.

Finally and most importantly PoW, once seen as a pure solution, is increasingly seen as flawed as there is now a credible alternative, something that Dan and DPoS can take some pride in revealing.

In summary the fanaticism that kept Bitcoin alive has simply run out of air.

In my view Bitcoin it's simply kept alive by a tight Chinese business model stemming from the need of the cadres to discreetly move money out of China.

As this reality sinks in a vacuum is being created, one that the Bitshares platform can fill but only if we see it associated with a currency that is 'used' by consumers and adopted by the existing Bitcoin infrastructure.

I see you, and raise you one Wall Street Pump.

All your points have merit, are quite reasonable and I am agreeable on the whole.

However, I am not sure any of it matters at this point.

Remember what WS did with mutual funds?

Bitcoin is orders of magnitude more profitable to fleece Main Street with.

The finance/banking complex is accumulating off-market while depressing price on-market.

A bit tin-foil, but it's pretty hard not connect the news from GABI/SM/Charlie Shrem to the rather well-timed/high slippage market sells that have been going on (why sell hundreds/thousands at once on one exchange over and over? Why not sell off-market or use a bot to drip sell?).

This will continue until off-market supply begins to dry up and buy pressure moves to exchanges.

Then the marketing pump will start - buy recommendations, ETF's going live, media coverage, perhaps a few pension/sovereign funds.

Does BTC need to be adopted, regulated and sustainable for the big money to make a big profit? Nope.

So I would not count BTC as down and out just yet. There's very likely one huge pump coming.

Thereafter it is very likely a 2.0 platform will address the adoption/sustainability/regulatory issues and much of the crypto-value will dump BTC and head for the next big thing.

Say, something like Bitshares...

360
General Discussion / Re: BTSX is showing itself stronger than Bitcoin
« on: September 23, 2014, 10:01:43 pm »
Quote
Interesting selling pressure as BTC rallies - perhaps folks moving from BTSX to BTC.

I wonder why they're not buying bitBTC?

Because last time I checked no one was selling at reasonable prices maybe? and I am talking about bitusd bitbtc market..

Need to get those MM bots running...

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