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Messages - Empirical1.1

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421
General Discussion / Re: BitShares REloaded Site is up! The New BitShares.org Check it out!
« on: November 20, 2014, 09:42:24 pm »
Quote from: Rune on November 20, 2014, 09:34:06 pm
If we're talking about websites to emulate, check out dwolla:

https://www.dwolla.com/

Love that the call to action button is right there at the very beginning, along with a super condensed pitch.

I love that there main selling point is $0.25 per transaction and that BTS undercuts that by a lot :)

422
General Discussion / Re: What was the average price per BTS paid by AGS investors pre Feb-28?
« on: November 20, 2014, 08:47:39 pm »
Well PTS was $25 million before the Feb 28th snapshot and $10 million after, so they were paying a $30 million valuation for BTSX at the peak (PTS got 50% of BTSX) or a $37.5 million valuation for the new BTS.

So some people who bought BTSX via PTS are maybe BE or lost a bit in $ terms at the current price. BTC was 50% higher at the time, so they're still better off than having stayed in BTC.

My best investment round the same period has surprisingly been XCP (Counterparty) at proof of burn stage. 1200% returns at current prices. Funnily enough I've hardly looked at them since.

423
General Discussion / Re: Rand Paul Coin (RPCD) (Please Follow, RT and Join)
« on: November 20, 2014, 06:05:06 pm »
I think any current political leader will be too divisive. Ron Paul is universally loved, has global appeal and he would be my preferred option. I also think 13 delegates is too low, though I understand the devs reasoning.

I'm a buyer of any no dilution DPOS though, so I have a few RPC for the Nov 27 snapshot.

424
General Discussion / Re: BitShares REloaded Site is up! The New BitShares.org Check it out!
« on: November 20, 2014, 04:30:37 pm »
Great work Cass :)

I don't expect much to be changed, just giving my feedback...

My impression - The main part missing from all of it is the 'how', the 'what' content is also sometimes a bit unspecific.

I disagree with the full on mainstream angle but if they are going that route there should at least be a simple succinct 'how it works' page imo. The advantages of a blockchain are essentially the USP of BitShares. (I also asked a few friends what they thought and they said it was 'fine/good, a bit fluffy, fine as an intro but then needs to go into more detail.') - So the 'how it works' page could solve that.

Also most other services are provided by centralised, regulated companies and so it might be PR negative if you're seen to be advertising something similar to financial services without clearly disclosing/explaining that & how BitShares is different imo.

I would personally re-arrange the pages in this order...

1. Profitable - I would choose a different graphic, something that says profit more. I would also like to give them an idea of the interest, 'currently averaging % P.A'
2. Secure - Liked the wording, I would move the vault graphic from 'profitable' to here.
3. Low Cost - Didn't really like the wording nothing better springs to mind though.
4. Instant - Maybe specifically mention worldwide transaction times of 5-10 seconds.
5. Flexible - Fine, liked the graphic.
6. Limitless - Liked the graphic and content

Then a clear link to the 'How BitShares Works' page

The merchants list - (Cold, rainy street that's not that busy is a poor choice for main graphic imo, really bustling marketplace would be preferable.)

The rest of the content is good. I don't know if it's worth being blatantly clear somewhere, maybe under 'Your Business is your business'  -  'With BitShares all your sales & income are completely private.' I would even put that at/nearer the top.

I know these things constantly change but again something specific about current transaction fees and average interest rates, perhaps updated weekly, gives people something specific to compare.

425
General Discussion / Re: BTS is getting more competition... Snapcash
« on: November 20, 2014, 11:53:30 am »
I think the more people that get comfortable using digital cash options like this the better.

I see most articles pointed out the security concerns/problems that snapchat has had. This is exactly what blockchain technology largely solves.

We already have a big market available of people that are aware of these flaws. & whether it's banks or snapchat that messes with customer funds or whether it's greater and greater invasions of personal privacy, more and more people will move to the best blockchain option. The future is on the blockchain, no doubt :)

426
General Discussion / Re: Is everyone against merger and inflating for stuff out of BTS yet?
« on: November 20, 2014, 02:10:11 am »
Quote from: arhag on November 20, 2014, 01:50:04 am
Quote from: Empirical1.1 on November 19, 2014, 11:58:28 pm
I'm not a trader or anything but I would create a plot that overlays the BTC price of both. Even though BTS is traded BTS/CNY, this market rises and falls in dollar terms on the fortunes of Bitcoin, so they're highly correlated.

Enjoy: http://jsfiddle.net/p4qvLwwp/

Thanks. I would do it from earlier than that though :) It's pretty obvious to me NXT has just been on a long term downtrend. For me the story is we spiked with the release of  BitAssets, then recovered as the initial flaws were improved upon but then entered a downtrend as dilution became a likely reality.

We have been evolving world changing tech at an incredible pace, we've added the DNS DAC value, PTS & Vote too. So just comparing us to NXT is also flawed. Maybe look at XCP, XRP & others. I really think people are just looking at something else in a BTC correlated downtrend to justify the movement.

I don't think we can say when we're rising in BTC, 'high fives guys, this is all us!' And then when we're falling compare ourselves to something else that's falling and say 'See, this has nothing to do with our actions'.

427
General Discussion / Re: Grassroots Initiative Marketing Focus Welcome Home
« on: November 20, 2014, 01:30:20 am »
Quote from: hpenvy on November 20, 2014, 01:25:24 am
Quote from: Empirical1.1 on November 20, 2014, 01:17:53 am
Getting more of the Chinese community back on board in particular would be great.

Even though a lot of us trade on BTC 38 now, I think a lot of our volume was Chinese driven and that's a huge market to have won over in crypto.

They can and have helped drive $Billion+ valuations for the likes of Litecoin and were a big part of Bitcoins rise late last year.

So much stuff is done on the English forums & from a Western POV,  but actually the Western penetration, understanding  and popularity of BitShares is quite low when you go over to Bitcointalk etc. As everything gets simpler, they will have their collective 'A-ha' moment, maybe as soon as the end of the year but in the meantime, welcoming back as much of our Chinese community would be the lowest hanging fruit.

Great point. Who should I contact to help assist in the Chinese community?

Maybe Cn-members, I forget if that's one person or a group but they do a lot of translations and act as a bridge between the English and Chinese forums.

428
General Discussion / Re: Vitalik wins software innovation award
« on: November 20, 2014, 01:26:44 am »
Quote from: CLains on November 20, 2014, 01:06:35 am
Congratulations to Vitalik!   +5%

 +5% I don't know enough to know how valuable what he did is, but he comes across as a very talented but mature and humble guy.

Decentralised BitAssets are huge innovation though in my opinion, the biggest thing since (& ultimately bigger than) Bitcoin.  The whole world will be using & talking about them & Daniel soon enough.

429
General Discussion / Re: Grassroots Initiative Marketing Focus Welcome Home
« on: November 20, 2014, 01:17:53 am »
Getting more of the Chinese community back on board in particular would be great.

Even though a lot of us trade on BTC 38 now, I think a lot of our volume was Chinese driven and that's a huge market to have won over in crypto.

They can and have helped drive $Billion+ valuations for the likes of Litecoin and were a big part of Bitcoins rise late last year.

So much stuff is done on the English forums & from a Western POV,  but actually the Western penetration, understanding  and popularity of BitShares is quite low when you go over to Bitcointalk etc. As everything gets simpler, they will have their collective 'A-ha' moment, maybe as soon as the end of the year but in the meantime, welcoming back as much of our Chinese community would be the lowest hanging fruit.





430
General Discussion / Re: Is everyone against merger and inflating for stuff out of BTS yet?
« on: November 19, 2014, 11:58:28 pm »
Quote from: arhag on November 19, 2014, 11:42:33 pm
Quote from: monsterer on November 19, 2014, 10:36:17 pm
Quote from: toast on November 19, 2014, 10:23:17 pm
How low can we go? I want a (price, required buy volume) curve estimate to know how aggressively it safe to inflate.

Well, last 30 days shows no change due to news, despite all the bad feeling about it expressed on this forum:



Market caps - NXT is red, BTS is green. Notice they're basically the same? This says to me the dominating factor isn't inflation.

I created a nicer plot if you want to compare the price of BTSX vs NXT. They are all priced in USD but I also included BTC (or at least BTC/10000) in the plot for comparison as well. This is over a time period of the last 90 days.



I'm not a trader or anything but I would create a plot that overlays the BTC price of both. Even though BTS is traded BTS/CNY, this market rises and falls in dollar terms on the fortunes of Bitcoin, so they're highly correlated.

When you are rising in BTC terms you are outperforming BTC and are on an uptrend and vice versa imo.

My personal contention is that dilution has played a big role in our change of fortunes, despite the fact it's negligible in practice and many of the marketing and developer delegates will add far more value than they take away. For the record I'll start buying in more again if it keeps falling though.


431
General Discussion / Re: Is everyone against merger and inflating for stuff out of BTS yet?
« on: November 19, 2014, 11:26:09 pm »
Quote from: monsterer on November 19, 2014, 10:36:17 pm
Quote from: toast on November 19, 2014, 10:23:17 pm
How low can we go? I want a (price, required buy volume) curve estimate to know how aggressively it safe to inflate.

Well, last 30 days shows no change due to news, despite all the bad feeling about it expressed on this forum:



Market caps - NXT is red, BTS is green. Notice they're basically the same? This says to me the dominating factor isn't inflation.

That's wrong. Look at the 180 day graph of NXT vs. that of BitShares.

NXT has been in a long term downtrend since June. All you've done is overlay two equities that currently happen to be in a downtrend. As they're both priced in & effected by BTC a lot of the variance in their downtrend will be highly correlated.

432
General Discussion / Re: New Marketing Opportunity
« on: November 19, 2014, 04:40:30 pm »
Quote from: bitmarket on November 19, 2014, 04:00:06 pm
I will do it.  I have pm'd you.

 +5%

Presenting & explaining BitShares and its benefits to larger groups is a great way to market and spread BitAssets.  A couple of well targeted presentations to a demographic like traders, who would be more comfortable & familiar with this, having used various trading clients, could be very valuable.

433
General Discussion / Re: Loss aversion and how it will be our downfall. Please read.
« on: November 19, 2014, 02:36:04 pm »
To the outside it may look like early adopters and insiders diluting a crypto-currency to pay themselves. (Crypto-equities are different but they're viewed more as currencies by the majority of the current market.)

I think people like Fuzzy and the work they put in arguably helped build BitShares just as much as the marketing director early on. The market right now though is very sceptical of dilution. So we need to show it that we're very intelligent & prudent with the new power. Threads like this probably pushed the share price down more than usual yesterday imo - https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=11458.0

With the new website, the marketing push coming and one/two new things in December, hopefully the market will start transitioning to the company vs. currency mentality more with regards to BitShares in the New Year.

434
General Discussion / Re: Slogan Poll
« on: November 19, 2014, 01:36:14 pm »
It's not a slogan but if we're keeping the little b as the BitShares logo, people using a variation of the 'A-ok' sign made to look more like a 'b' could be something to consider adopting in some material. Might be a good way to positively express using something intangible like BitShares.















435
General Discussion / Re: NXTTY Marketing Strategy - Android Drop
« on: November 19, 2014, 11:25:41 am »
Quote from: sschechter on November 18, 2014, 04:04:42 pm
Quote from: CLains on November 18, 2014, 02:40:26 pm

Just as a playful aside: What do you think would happen if we launched a BTS fork called bitGOLD, with one asset called bitGLD, which diluted bitGOLD 100% over the next year to pay yield to bitGLD holders? What if dilution of bitGOLD depended on total value of all bitGLD, or on external value of bitGOLD itself?

Playing with these concepts is like playing with atomic nuclear physics in 1941.

1. Sounds exactly like NuBits. Guaranteed yield is not much different than guaranteed interest rate to enforce a peg.

2. Goldbugs want to hold gold - they don't want to play with derivatives.  bitGLD is for traders and hedgers who are already involved in crypto.  There's not much of a market for new users who will be brought in through bitGLD, its useful mainly for users already in the system.

At the moment the BitGLD you describe would seem very ponzi-ish. Though as this space develops, techniques like that may have merit. (Probably not for the gold/silver market but maybe for a BitUSD.) As someone who tried holding some BitGold and would potentially hold a lot, the thing I'm most interested in, is security. A secure, robust blockchain backed by a healthy share system, perhaps with an offline signing thing. My concern as a potential BitGold holder with the new BTS is that even though they have devshares for testing, the blockchain could have a lot of moving parts and require a lot of maintenance and development. So I'd be worried about something going wrong in the next year, vs. other options.

Also for you example of a BitGLD specific blockchain, I'm not sure of the consequences. Like if Gold has a sudden/sustained upwards revaluation are enough people going to want to short it vs. holding it. 

The nice thing about BTS DPOS though is whatever sharedrop strategy they use, it doesn't have to start huge, you have a lot of flexibility to turn it up and down depending on results provided you don't commit to too much initially.

Edit: looked at the PayPal case study again. The situation there was that 'there were people willing to finance such risks because of the potential returns' so it looks like it was a serious short term burden and drain on PayPal too. Applied to decentralised crypto-equities, nobody wants to be holding the bag short term while this process happens, hence why share-drops crush price. (Which is what you really don't want to happen.) If somehow AGS had set aside money to fund it, that would be different. As it stands I think you have to be very prudent with Share drops and closely monitor them. I also think the platform is already there for BitAssets to spread fast once they're consumer friendly.



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