Up about 20% since posting, hope I was bidding against at least a few of you!

Will probably pull back into the low 70's but the trend is bullish as hell.

My completely unsubstantiated prediction for milestones over the next four months:


1. Client stabilized

2. Trading interface released

4. Liquidity/depth/volume increases substantially

5. Pegs consolidate

6. Smart money buys in

7. BTSX surpasses Litecoin in market cap

8. Marketing hype

9. Bitcoin/Alt money buys in

10. $1bn cap breached on/before Jan 2015


I'll bump this in the New Year for entertainment value.

Good luck to all!

  I only think about 3 main things myself

1. BitInterest
2. Stable Client
3. Decentralisation

The BitInterest system was the most important to me. (Besides fees if you can extract $ from people willing to pay a premium to short at 1-1 and pass it onto longs in the form of interest it will increase demand, adoption, liquidity and support the peg.)  I think BTSX can pass LiteCoin very quickly just with the introduction of BitYield. 

Once those three elements above are in place then you have a base to challenge Bitcoin imo, but even with marketing, trading interface etc, if anyone of those three elements can't be described as 'excellent' then it will be hard to surpass $1 Billion imo.

Thanks for the reply, (I've never shorted before) but I'm still not understanding how/if we're maximising earnings from shorts willing to pay a premium for priority to short when there are BitUSD buyers at 1-1 or above?

Place your short order at the... lowest (BTSX per $) you are willing to short at...

For example right now the median price is 26.3 BTSX per $

It only lets me put in my short at 26.3 or 1-1. (Range 26.3778 - 29.3087 BTSX/BitUSD)

Shouldn't I be able to put in my short lower (or offer to pay a higher fee) so if someone does want to buy at 26.3 (1-1 or above) I've paid for the privilege of being first in line to get the trade and the network captures the difference as fees somehow?

Otherwise as the BTSX price rises, the BTSX per $ price and the median will go lower, say to 25 BTSX-1 and it's just the person who's at their computer and puts in their short order at that new lower level (25 vs. my 26.3) that gets priority?

Very nice site 

At the moment it doesn't seem obvious besides looking at the median feed as to whether the price BitUSD is trading is below 1-1.

Personally I go over to coinmarketcap look at the USD price of BTSX and divide by 1 to get the current number and then from there I've still go to work out what the current trading price is in relation to that.

Is there an easier way to do it, I've only bought a few token BitUSD's for fun so far, so I don't know?

I'd find it easier to at least see where BitUSD is trading even in visual terms to the median/1hr average price.

Say for example if the median/1hr avg price is 32.5 BTSX to $1

                                    30.8           31.7          32.5          33.3           34.1

                                      .95    .96    .97    .98    .99    1    .01    .02    .03    .04    .05

Or when you're buying it says:       32   (.984)


Something like that would be much easier to tell you're getting BitUSD at a discount and by how much and perhaps help the range be tighter?
 

  Sounds great 

Quote from: bytemaster on September 07, 2014, 01:49:18 am

I was barely hanging on at the mumble hangout.

Sorry to hear Dan. Get some rest, feel better.

 

Quote from: Empirical1.1 on September 06, 2014, 09:03:18 am

If the odds that BTSX has a serious issue/failure in the next year are 2% then a BitAsset is only worth 0.98 to a long term BitAsset holder.

A genuine BitAsset holder also has to consider the utility of a BitAsset or the cost of conversion to acquire the real world counterpart his BitAsset mirrors.

So even if your proposal resulted in a tighter range than the current few % now it wouldn't attract genuine buyers because a BiAsset isn't worth 1-1 in the medium term because of risk, conversion & utility costs which is why you have a dead buy side of the order book.

Interest will offset these factors and does make BitAssets 1-1 or better which attracts buyers at 1-1 Therefore making a bigger market than the current one and it creates the peg at 1-1 (because the interest applied in this way is self-regulating.)

Empirical, you are making a PERSONAL value judgment here.  Just because a bitAsset isn't worth 1-1 to YOU doesn't mean it isn't worth 1-1 to somebody else.  There are still advantages to bitAssets and as long as it is worth at least 1-1 to somebody then we have demand.  The trick to the peg is we adjust supply to whatever the demand may be.  So if we make bitAssets more attractive and useful than we can sustain a larger supply/market cap for the bitAssets: It affects the total supply rather than changing the peg.  The mechanics of maintaining the peg are more dependent on the shorting/covering rules.

I don't think it's a personal value judgement to say at the very least current demand for BitAssets is not matched with current demand from people looking to short and that people looking to short are willing to pay a premium to incentivise customers for their short.

While I can see your strategy matches supply with current demand as you say - and in that sense it works - it's just a very small market because current demand is so low.

You're also strangling & suffocating the market because the shorts are willing to pay to a premium to attract/incentivise buyers & in so doing create a much bigger market of buyers and sellers. It's like trying to stop a store from offering incentives to attract more customers, if the store is willing to do that let them. Don't let them sit with $2000 leather jackets on the shelves with no customers when they want to sell them for and can still make a profit on them @$1800. (The shorts are willing to pay a premium below the peg because they believe their short position will be profitable, let them do it in a way that attracts customers for their shorts.)

If Bank A is new and or it risky it generally needs to offer me more interest for my deposit than a safe established bank. If it didn't there would be low demand, looking at the green side of our order book that is BitAssets current predicament imo. The BTSX virtual vault is new and risky & needs rewards to attract deposits and luckily competition from shorts is capable of producing a pot of funds that can offer the incentive needed in a self regulating way where it's not going to over-stimulate BitAsset demand in excess of shorting demand.

I like it personally, though as long as there was some form of self regulating method for maximising the order book by taking fees from those on the other side willing to pay a premium at 1-1 I'm happy.

I'm not totally against daily interest myself.

However I think interest will have a limited incentive effect for traders, speculators and weak hands.

Traders will come when there's a profitable imbalance, speculators are looking to make short term gains and weak hands will dump their BitAssets regardless of interest.

However who would be incentivised by interest are people looking to genuinely store value in BitAssets. Those people are imo are who BTSX is currently lacking (No left side of the order book) They are also the ones who would be most exposed to a BTSX failure (risk) which would not be compensated for.

As I said in another thread if the chance of total BTSX failure is 2% this year. BitAssets are only worth 0.98 to them. Plus without utility genuine BitAsset holders have to take into account the conversion cost to acquire the real world counterpart (Or at least the fiat equivalent) their BitAsset is mirroring.

By translating shorting demand into fees for 'rewards' and also not giving those rewards to speculators, traders and weak hands then you create a very attractive pot for people genuinely looking to hold value in BitAssets.

The result is a correction of the demand imbalance & a very healthy left side of the order book and BitAssets that are worth more than 1-1 to a person genuinely looking to put some of their portfolio into BitAssets.

This increase in demand at or above 1-1 may even eventually nullify the situation of shorts needing to compete much to find buyers. (At which point the interest will be going down & the system will be self regulating.)

Over time as BTSX is viewed as safe, reliable & decentralised. When there are gateways &/or utility plus the many other advantages of BitAssets will make them attractive to genuine holders @ 1-1 or even above without interest.