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Messages - Empirical1.1

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826
I'd say some commodities futures trading in the real world is often a case of the tail wagging the dog.

Gold on the Comex is hardly backed at all and there is frequent trading and particularly shorting far in excess of what could be reasonably acquired on the physical market resulting in the underlying physical commodity, gold, being under-priced. BitAssets like BitGold would just be a reflection of an already existing dynamic for something like that.

Only something like BitStocks could realistically become an issue imo.

827
I know you're on another level compared to me here, but looking at the order book wouldn't you agree we need to attract BitAsset buying demand?

Translating shorting demand into transaction fees which gets transferred to incentivising genuine BitAsset buying (via interest) helps correct the demand imbalance imo.
I think to create buying demand you want to motivate shorts to cover whenever bitUSD is offered below parity.  I think the current method works against that goal.


If the odds that BTSX has a serious issue/failure in the next year are 2% then a BitAsset is only worth 0.98 to a long term BitAsset holder.

A genuine BitAsset holder also has to consider the utility of a BitAsset or the cost of conversion to acquire the real world counterpart (edit: or at least the fiat value equivalent) his BitAsset mirrors.

So even if your proposal resulted in a tighter range than the current few % now it wouldn't attract genuine buyers because a BiAsset isn't worth 1-1 in the medium term because of risk, conversion & utility costs which is why you have a dead buy side of the order book.

Interest will offset these factors and does make BitAssets 1-1 or better which attracts buyers at 1-1 Therefore making a bigger market than the current one and it creates the peg at 1-1 (because the interest applied in this way is self-regulating.)





828
General Discussion / Re: PSA: I'm buying... and you probably should be too
« on: September 06, 2014, 04:04:57 am »
 +5%

829
General Discussion / Re: Interest on BitUSD - A Proposal for Review
« on: September 06, 2014, 03:27:05 am »
What effect (if any) do you guys think the 5% interest will do to the price of Bitassets? Take something like bitUSD which already inflates via the US government by about 2% per year. Then we add 5% on top of that. How will the 7% annual inflation rate affect the price of Bitshares- if it will at all?

I know this is about creating a demand for Bitassets and I think it will, but are there any long term side effects regarding to the bitasset market peg in making bitUSD annual inflation at 7% when the actual inflation rate is closer to 2%???

Inflation is bad, interest is good.

So when they say there's 2% inflation it means at the end of the year $1 will on buy you $0.98 of the stuff it does today. Whereas 2% interest p.a means at the end of the year means $1 will buy you $1.02 worth of stuff. (Though if there was 2% inflation the two would cancel out.)

In your example of 5% interest and a dollar with 2% inflation would mean $1 would be worth $1.03 at the end of the year.

What will it mean for BTSX?

Very good things. Imagine two identical places. Place A gave you no interest on your money and place B did. Assuming all else is equal, you would put your money in Place B.

It's likely the BitAsset interest rate while variable will be higher than most traditional places so it means BitAssets will attract a lot of new money.

Also the nice thing if I understand it correctly is that our interest rate is self-regulating.

So for example right now there is not a lot of BitAsset buying demand but a lot of people who want to short BitAssets. They are competing with each other by essentially who is willing to pay the most when there is a chance to short. These contribute some of the fees that are then used to pay the interest. This interest attracts buyers. More buyers mean the shorts have to compete less which means less fees for interest, less interest means less demand and so on...

I think for many BitUSD holders, they would rather not worry about all of this stuff. They would just like to get some variable interest on their BitUSD balance, just like they would in their bank savings account. Using the BitUSD fees to pay this interest makes things much easier for these users. If they are unsatisfied with the rates they are getting, then they can look into the bond market.

 +5%

830
I know you're on another level compared to me here, but looking at the order book wouldn't you agree we need to attract BitAsset buying demand?

Translating shorting demand into transaction fees which gets transferred to incentivising genuine BitAsset buying (via interest) helps correct the demand imbalance imo.

831
General Discussion / Re: Interest on BitUSD - A Proposal for Review
« on: September 06, 2014, 12:41:51 am »
Why require a minimum of a month?

I'm not anywhere near the same maths or trading level as you guys but these are my thoughts.

- Instead of selling their BitAssets for BTSX in a bubble or in a panic during a technical problem. BitAsset holders are now incentivised to hold and not create as much volatility.

- Not sure about this one, but doesn't giving people an incentive to hold, take some BitUSD out of general circulation so there will be less available for shorts looking to cover for example thereby increase demand and making BitUSD average closer to the peg than the few % below I hear it averages now?

- Doesn't this proposal reward savers over traders?
Just like keeping your funds for any length of time on a centralised exchange is risky, till BTSX has proved itself so too is holding BitAssets. (BitAsset savers take on a lot of the risks of BTSX with few of the benefits) Maximising their reward attracts genuine saving not just trading demand for BitAssets.

Don't we want more people trading not hording? More trading = closer to peg value over time especially when the price is moving. IF people need to hold onto their bit assets it discourages trading which decreases liquidity. There should be no minimum time. Also more trading = more fees, which is also good.   

Unless I'm missing something?

You may be right. I'm not hot with these things. I'm sure the main guys will be able to clue us in here.

I would think traders would come in whenever there is a profit to be made from an imbalance anyway, they don't need the interest as an incentive.

I also think there is a risk to holding BitAssets long term as well as a conversion cost and lack of utility short term for someone looking to move some of their BTC position over to BitBTC for example so those people are the ones we want to maximise the rewards for.

Also if trading is anything like poker. The traders want as many of the average Joe savers in the game because that's who they get their edge from.

832
General Discussion / Re: Interest on BitUSD - A Proposal for Review
« on: September 06, 2014, 12:32:51 am »
Why require a minimum of a month?

I'm not anywhere near the same maths or trading level as you guys but these are my thoughts.

- Instead of selling their BitAssets for BTSX in a bubble or in a panic during a technical problem. BitAsset holders are now incentivised to hold and not create as much volatility.

- Not sure about this one, but doesn't giving people an incentive to hold, take some BitUSD out of general circulation so there will be less available for shorts looking to cover for example thereby increase demand and making BitUSD average closer to the peg than the few % below I hear it averages now?

- Doesn't this proposal reward savers over traders?
Just like keeping your funds for any length of time on a centralised exchange is risky, till BTSX has proved itself so too is holding BitAssets. (BitAsset savers take on a lot of the risks of BTSX with few of the benefits) Maximising their reward attracts genuine saving not just trading demand for BitAssets.


833
General Discussion / Re: Interest on BitUSD - A Proposal for Review
« on: September 05, 2014, 11:59:47 pm »
I don't like the word 'rewards' - sounds like a cheap marketing ploy that I ignore from my brick and mortar banks. I like the expression 'dividends through profit sharing' or something along those lines.  It subconsciously emphasizes the fact that DACs are companies that are designed to earn profits, and that those profits are being returned to the user. It also implies that the size of the dividends are dependent on the profitability of the company.  +5%

 +5% That sounds perfect to me.

I also feel the same about 'rewards' but I think apparently describing it using the words 'dividends', 'interest' or a derivative of them is a no go.

"dividends" and "interest" are difficult words to legally market.

834
General Discussion / Re: Interest on BitUSD - A Proposal for Review
« on: September 05, 2014, 10:58:29 pm »
The general outline of this proposal sounds perfect to me.

I can't even think what else to write, I'm speechless, the impact of this is huge imo.

Quote
This feature would have a greater impact on adoption than just about anything else being discussed.     

Yes.

FYI... I have already implemented the rewards program :)  at the blockchain level.  I just need to add a few wallet operations and do some testing on a test-net, but it should be ready to go next week.

Anybody else get the feeling BM is changing the world with every stroke of the keyboard?

It's amazing really.

835
General Discussion / Re: BitUSD vs CoinoUSD
« on: September 05, 2014, 07:33:24 pm »
You give them USD, via bank transfer, and they give you CoinoUSD in return.
If you want to cash out, you give them back your CoinUSD, and they give you $1 per 1 CoinoUSD asset.

More details: https://coinomat.com/coinousd.php

1. What are the odds that CoinoUSD is going to cash out for someone deemed to be conducting an illegal activity or be linked/used for large 'illegal' transactions?
2. What are the odds CoinoUSD is targeted as a result?

Lets say conservatively, the answer to (1) is 40% and the answer to (2) is 25% it still means 10% of the time the assets/dollars backing CoinoUSD will be seized/freezed in which case a CoinoUSD is only worth $0.9 without interest that's being generous and assuming you 'trust' the issuer of CoinoUSD.

BitUSD isn't perfect but it's value is a lot higher than that.

836
General Discussion / Re: BitUSD vs CoinoUSD
« on: September 05, 2014, 04:45:38 pm »
Who holds this USD that coinoUSD is backed by?

That's what I want to know.

It's probably a centralised entity like Realcoin where you have to trust CoinoUSD won't do a runner and know that if .gov doesn't like it they can just seize their backing dollars/assets or target them through their banking partners.

CoinoUSD will probably be backed by centralised seizable collateral but BitUSD is backed by decentralised unseizable collateral.
and thats what I am also thinking. The biggest problem I have with nxt is that their asset's are backed by trust. All the assets I found on the exchange were based either on the reputation of a board member or trusting a business of some kind that was just created with no history.

Are assets are backed by btsx. Now btsx has a real world value and we don't have to trust anyone. It's also important to note that the more the platform is used the more daily burning occur's and the more the value of btsx will rise(through utility). It's like it own little self feeding ecosystem. The more you use it the more value btsx has and the more value btsx has the stronger the backing of the asset's that are created.

Yeah BTSX assets are backed by a lot of BTSX, plus insurance fund, plus we can do small dilution in emergency (probably never needed) Basically at it's core Bytemaster has solved a big problem in a decentralised way. BTSX > Bitcoin imo easy.

CoinoUSD/Realcoin/User issued (Trust required) assets have a market but nothing like BitAssets.

Problem of course is that it's centralized.

I guess no comments are needed..

Yip, pretty much imo.

837
General Discussion / Re: BitUSD vs CoinoUSD
« on: September 05, 2014, 04:20:03 pm »
Who holds this USD that coinoUSD is backed by?

That's what I want to know.

It's probably a centralised entity like Realcoin where you have to trust CoinoUSD won't do a runner and know that if .gov doesn't like it they can just seize their backing dollars/assets or target them through their banking partners.

CoinoUSD will probably be backed by centralised seizable collateral but BitUSD is backed by decentralised unseizable collateral.



838
General Discussion / Re: Bitshares MEME contest win a free tee
« on: September 05, 2014, 03:17:56 pm »
BitShares X -'I killed the bank' - Andrew Jackson

BitAssets - Can't touch this

---

BitGold - Hoarders without borders

BitUSD - Fuck 'fractional' reserve

BitCNY - Free your dragon

bitBTC - 10 SECONDS!!

 +5% That's a good one :) I was just thinking yesterday there was no current advantage to BitBTC (Without converting shorting demand into interest for BitBTC) But 10 seconds!! is a good one!

839
General Discussion / Re: Bitshares MEME contest win a free tee
« on: September 05, 2014, 02:25:20 pm »
BitShares X -'I killed the bank' - Andrew Jackson

BitAssets - Can't touch this

---

BitGold - Hoarders without borders

BitUSD - Fuck 'fractional' reserve

BitCNY - Free your dragon

840
General Discussion / Re: When will there be interest on BitAssets?
« on: September 05, 2014, 01:19:14 am »
Quote
I think lots of people will be willing to short BitUSD, not a lot willing to go long at the start.

Might make BitUSD price trade too far below peg. But this will hurt BTSX price causing the situation to correct itself...

Seems like it may need interest rates if you really want to keep it at 1-1. Because a short may be willing to short BitUSD and pay X% interest to entice a long to trade.

You lost me here...why this will hurt BTSX price? If a lot of people go short bitusd, wouldn't bitusd fall relatively to BTSX price. Therefore BTSX will rise and will be worth more bitsud..

I think a lot of people are hoping BitUSD may track USD fairly close to 1-1 most of the time.

However because people are so bullish on BTSX and shorting BTSX lets you take a leveraged position on BTSX. BTSX bulls may be willing to short still at $0.70, this trading range will be so far from the peg that it could damage the credibility of the peg. This could make people sell BTSX. This will mean less BTSX bulls willing to short below the peg and the situation will correct itself.

I don't mind a BitUSD like that but it might not appeal as much to retailers and savers.

It seems to make it stable you should introduce free market interest rates.
Then you still short 1-1 but when most people are bulls like now you will pay a higher interest rate to short BitUSD as opposed to shorting very far below the peg.

My new prediction

Despite claims that the peg is working BitAsset creation will be minimal. (The share price will languish below $80 million CAP) Over the next few weeks the voices will get louder asking for interest.

Within a week of interest/incentives being added to BTSX the CAP will surpass Litecoin.

If interest/incentives is not added for say a month from now you should also see BitAssets already in circulation starting to fetch prices >2% below the peg on average.

(No economics degree or prediction market understanding, novice trader, don't understand options, contracts etc.. So take it with a pinch of salt but that's my prediction...)



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