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Messages - sports-owner

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1
General Discussion / Re: First USD backed prediction market
« on: February 03, 2016, 10:07:43 pm »
Quote from: tonyk on February 03, 2016, 09:04:14 pm
Quote from: puppies on February 03, 2016, 07:34:09 pm
Oh snap.  You can still borrow this asset in the cli right?  This would be perfect to hand out on Twitter.  I've started handing out REPGENSIXTEEN on Twitter  already. 

edit.  borrow_asset works just fine in the cli.  I tried sending some on twitter with the sharebot, but I don't know if it worked.

The GUI issues for this just start with 'cannot borrow".

As you can only pay the fee in the asset itself (until the fee pool runs out) if you want to sell you have to pay the ridiculous 250 ENDWAR(potentially 250 USD) to place your order....

Thanks for letting me know about the crazy fee.  I have emptied the fee pool.  The precision difference made the CER 10x greater than I had intended.  Also I expected it to realize that the asset was not backed by BTS, and instead to use 2.5x as much ENDWAR as USD would be used in the same transaction.

Quote from: yvv on February 03, 2016, 09:24:55 pm
This prediction does not make sense, since this war is not declared. There is no official start date, and there will be no official end date. How do you determine if it stopped or not?


That will be up to the committee to decide.  The description speaks of ending hostilities.  If there are no longer any battles, and people are not getting killed, then I would say hostilities are ended.

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General Discussion / First USD backed prediction market
« on: February 03, 2016, 07:23:47 pm »
I have created a new prediction market http://cryptofresh.com/ENDWAR. 

This asset is backed by USD, but the GUI is still trying to back it with BTS.  @svk would it be possible to change the borrow mechanism in the GUI again so that it backs this asset with USD?

This asset will be worth 1USD if the current war in Yemen ceases before January 1st 2017.  I decided to create ENDWAR after reading https://www.reddit.com/r/BitShares/comments/41wjnc/anyone_working_on_implementing_social_policy/  If someone would like to promote the end of this war they can borrow the asset and either give it away, or sell at a very steep discount to activists that are working to end this war.  It is a great way of raising money for a cause you believe in while only risking your money if the result you are looking for is accomplished.
What other ENDWAR assets would you be interested in?  ENDWAR.IRAQ  ENDWAR.SYRIA  Any other social goods that you think we could accomplish, that you would like to see a market for?

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General Discussion / Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« on: February 01, 2016, 08:38:04 am »
Having as secondary description that would show up in the gui that we could use numbers in would be very userful.  It would be nice if WTICRUDE could show as WTICRUDE-16-12-30-20:00:00-$40.00 for example.  Preferred market would be great once we get enough bitasset liquidity to collateralize PMs with USD CNY or BTC.  Expiry and short and long descriptions would also be great.  If you could find a way to have borrow and sell be a single click in the GUI I think that would be a great simplifying feature as well.  Would have to explain somewhere why it takes more upfront to short an asset.  Thanks for all your hard work SVK.


Quote from: svk on February 01, 2016, 08:12:41 am
Quote from: sports-owner on February 01, 2016, 07:29:32 am
Quote from: noisy on February 01, 2016, 07:23:40 am
In my opinion, all assets for prediction market should have separate prefix.

I agree.  Also being able to use numbers would be very useful.  While you are at it allow me to reuse markets.  EIther that or dramatically reduce the price of registering and closing out a PM, and have the PM decay after all assets are settled.  So names can be reused.

Did you see my post about adding description fields for assets?

Some fields I'm thinking would be useful are:
  • A long description
  • Preferred market, if you want the GUI to link to a non-BTS pair for example
  • Expiry
  • Short description of the condition

Any more you'd like to see? I could add an alternative symbol field that could include numbers..

What would you like to see included

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General Discussion / Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« on: February 01, 2016, 07:29:32 am »
Quote from: noisy on February 01, 2016, 07:23:40 am
In my opinion, all assets for prediction market should have separate prefix.

I agree.  Also being able to use numbers would be very useful.  While you are at it allow me to reuse markets.  EIther that or dramatically reduce the price of registering and closing out a PM, and have the PM decay after all assets are settled.  So names can be reused.

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General Discussion / Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« on: February 01, 2016, 07:19:37 am »
I have set SPORTS.SBLAFC to be resolved by commitee-trade.  I have created a new asset BTSPREDICT in response to https://www.reddit.com/r/BitShares/comments/43iyiq/will_bitshares_hit_12000000_in_market_cap_in/.  BTSPREDICT is to be resolved by the committee-account.  I have also modified WTICRUDE and SPFIVE to be resolved by the committee-account.  We will see which way of resolving works best. 

6
General Discussion / Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« on: January 30, 2016, 02:47:50 am »
Quote from: puppies on January 30, 2016, 02:40:38 am
If you want to set the committee as the decider for your PMs.  I'll create the proposals, and vote.  Even better might be the committee-trade account.  It's still owned by the committee, but doesn't have the same level of difficulty to complete as it's currently only a 2 of 4 multi Sig.

I may take you up on that.  the committee trade account is something I hadn't thought of.  That could be the perfect solution.

7
General Discussion / Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« on: January 30, 2016, 01:29:57 am »
@morpheus Thanks for the attention, and the added liquidity.

@fuzzy I sent you some Trump and Clinton PMA's to hand out on twitter.  Hopefully you can get some rabid Trump or Clinton fans to notice us.

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General Discussion / Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« on: January 27, 2016, 04:24:33 pm »
I'm not qualified to write these markets nor to close them out.  You could create a UIA and call it SCIENCE then open prediction markets that are backed by SCIENCE.  You could issue SCIENCE only to qualified Scientist. These Scientists could then bet, and be rewarded with more SCIENCE if they win.  I don't know how you could give them a monetary benefit outside of sharedropping on top of the SCIENCE asset, since we wouldn't want non scientist to be able to purchase SCIENCE and bet with it 

Quote from: hrossik on January 26, 2016, 08:55:39 pm
From the moment I read about PMs on Bitshares I have been thinking about how we could make them more useful ( I don't care about outcomes of US elections too much, nor sports ). And I just found following idea, what do you think about it?
Quote
Hanson has been a vocal proponent of using prediction markets (or what he also calls “idea futures”) to reform how we deal with controversies in science, academia, and politics. In "Could Gambling Save Science", he writes:
Quote
If the primary way that academics are now rewarded for being right, rather than popular, is an informal process for staking their reputation, which has various biases because of its informality, and if we want a better reputation game, why not literally make bets and formalize the process?
Imagine a betting pool or market on most disputed science questions, with the going odds available to the popular media, and treated socially as the current academic consensus. Imagine that academics are expected to "put up or shut up" and accompany claims with at least token bets, and that statistics are collected on how well people do. Imagine that funding agencies subsidize pools on questions of interest to them, and that research labs pay for much of their research with winnings from previous pools. And imagine that anyone could play, either to take a stand on an important issue, or to insure against technological risk.
This would be an "idea futures" market, which I offer as an alternative to existing academic social institutions. Somewhat like a corn futures market, where one can bet on the future price of corn, here one bets on the future settlement of a present scientific controversy.

There are more ideas for usage of PMs. Here is the source.

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General Discussion / Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« on: January 27, 2016, 04:03:52 pm »
Quote from: morpheus on January 26, 2016, 06:19:25 pm
@sports-owner

The PM can also be used as a binary options market.  Some users have requested being able to trade assets such as oil and stock indicies.  Perhaps we could create a few markets for these assets.

For example,

Traditional vanilla options markets are structured and labeled like this:

SPX160331C1900 - where SPX represents the stock index (S&P 500), 160331 represents March 31, 2016, C means it is a call option, and 1900 represents a strike price of 1900 for the option contract


I propose creating the following markets initially:

WTICRUDEOIL123016_4000     -     If the price of WTI CRUDE OIL is above $40.00 on December 30, 2016 17:00 ET, then 1 share of WTICRUDEOIL123016_4000 is worth 1 bts.  I use $40.00 because current futures contracts for the December contract are just under $40. 

SPX123016_187500 - If the price of the S&P 500 is above $1875.00 on December 30, 2016 at 4:00 PM ET, then 1 share of SPX123016_187500 is worth 1 bts.  I use $1875.00 becasue current futures contracts for the December contract are just above $1875.00

Here you are.

http://cryptofresh.com/a/WTICRUDE
http://cryptofresh.com/a/SPFIVE

enjoy

10
General Discussion / Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« on: January 26, 2016, 04:43:18 am »
I currently have 4 PMs open.

SPORTS.SBLAFC will be worth 1 BTS if the Broncos beat the Panthers in the SuperBowl.

REPNOMTRUMP will be worth 1 BTS is Donald Trump is selected as the Republican nominee for President of the United States.,

DEMNOMCLINTON will be worth 1 BTS if Hillary Clinto is selected as the Democrat nominee for President of the United States.

REPGENSIXTEEN will be worth 1 BTS if the Republican nominee is elected as the next President of the United States.


At this point you are reliant on me to close the markets out accurately.  I would make these committee fed assets, but I have heard nothing from the committee leading me to believe they are interested in doing this.  If there is anyone else that would like to step up to be part of a multi sig account to close these out I am willing to consider it.

If there are any other uncertain outcomes you would like to see a PM for please let me know.

11
General Discussion / Re: Exploiting fee pool of prediction market
« on: January 26, 2016, 04:22:27 am »
I could also just drain the pool immediately.  The issue is that we don't know how much the PM should cost.  If it is set too high it is possible to drain it.  If it is set too low then those paying fees in this asset pay too much.  I have three different strategies for combating this on three currently running PM's.  on REPGENSIXTEEN I have set the CER to .1BTS/1REPGENSIXTEEN.  Let me know if these fees are too high.  On DEMNOMCLINTON I have set the CER to .4BTS/1DEMNOMCLINTON.  We will have to see if this is drained.  On REPNOMTRUMP I have left the CER at 1BTS/1REPNOMTRUMP, and have drained the fee pool.  Opinions please.

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General Discussion / Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« on: January 25, 2016, 01:40:47 am »
alright.  I am about to close the market.

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General Discussion / Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« on: January 25, 2016, 01:03:28 am »
Quote from: Riverhead on January 25, 2016, 12:33:18 am
No feed for NFC game?

What do you mean?

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General Discussion / Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« on: January 24, 2016, 11:48:54 pm »
First game is over.  Those that were long on SPORTS.NFLAFC win.  I will close the market in a couple of hours.  I want to give anyone that borrowed and didn't sell a chance to close their borrow position. 

Also its now time for the second game.

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General Discussion / Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« on: January 22, 2016, 06:13:51 am »
Quote from: Chronos on January 22, 2016, 03:35:31 am
This is revolutionary.

One question. From the docs:

Quote
Since PM-Assets can technically be pegged by any other asset, you may need to pay USD (or anything else) instead of BTS.
However, the asset is still backed by BTS, correct? So, in a rising BTS market, winners stand to gain more than they would in a falling BTS market?

You are 100% correct in challenging the efficacy of prediction markets with a bts base.  Sadly there are no sub markets that are currently liquid enough to use.  With todays news I am thinking my next market may be openUSD based.  If there is enough traffic this could solve some of our problems.

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