Based on the mining speed can we predict when AGS and PTS supply will be equal?

Is there any reason why 3rd Party developers would honor ASG less than PTS in the future?

Quote from: delulo on January 20, 2014, 11:44:28 PM
are these time recommendations the same for btc and pts?

Yes.

The starting post was partly motivated by the failure of almost 10 BTCs to clear in 37 minutes.

are these time recommendations the same for btc and pts?

very LOW...  expected time to find a block is 10 minutes and all mining operations are independent.   You would be way out on the bell curve if you want 2 minute window.  So it is just as likely to take 2 minutes as it is to take 18 minutes and I have seen it take 40 minutes.

I would always put my money in an 1hr before the deadline unless you are OK with your contribution missing one day and falling into the next. 

Quote from: sumantso on January 19, 2014, 03:44:02 PM

Quote from: delulo on January 19, 2014, 01:37:50 PM

Quote from: sumantso on January 19, 2014, 12:30:01 PM

Quote from: delulo on January 19, 2014, 12:29:17 PM

Quote from: sumantso on January 17, 2014, 12:25:04 AM
Looks like the same last minute donation syndrome struck PTS today. Donation was 2.7k - way below the average - and within 8 minutes of the clock striking midnight 520 PTS donations cleared.

Folks - give 40 minutes for donations to clear.

as long as you send it away before time runs out it's ok right?

It has to have 1 confirm (unless I am massively mistaken, in which case the explorers are giving out wrong info).

The block generated time is taken as the time of donation.

So at which time do the pts have been sent? 1 minute before is enough?

At bad times it may go upto 20-30 minutes between blocks, so send at least 30 minutes in advance, maybe even more.

how high are the chances that the funds are received on time if pts/btc are sent in say 2 minutes before deadline?

Quote from: delulo on January 19, 2014, 01:37:50 PM

Quote from: sumantso on January 19, 2014, 12:30:01 PM

Quote from: delulo on January 19, 2014, 12:29:17 PM

Quote from: sumantso on January 17, 2014, 12:25:04 AM
Looks like the same last minute donation syndrome struck PTS today. Donation was 2.7k - way below the average - and within 8 minutes of the clock striking midnight 520 PTS donations cleared.

Folks - give 40 minutes for donations to clear.

as long as you send it away before time runs out it's ok right?

It has to have 1 confirm (unless I am massively mistaken, in which case the explorers are giving out wrong info).

The block generated time is taken as the time of donation.

So at which time do the pts have been sent? 1 minute before is enough?

At bad times it may go upto 20-30 minutes between blocks, so send at least 30 minutes in advance, maybe even more.

Quote from: sumantso on January 19, 2014, 12:30:01 PM

Quote from: delulo on January 19, 2014, 12:29:17 PM

Quote from: sumantso on January 17, 2014, 12:25:04 AM
Looks like the same last minute donation syndrome struck PTS today. Donation was 2.7k - way below the average - and within 8 minutes of the clock striking midnight 520 PTS donations cleared.

Folks - give 40 minutes for donations to clear.

as long as you send it away before time runs out it's ok right?

It has to have 1 confirm (unless I am massively mistaken, in which case the explorers are giving out wrong info).

The block generated time is taken as the time of donation.

So at which time do the pts have been sent? 1 minute before is enough?

Quote from: delulo on January 19, 2014, 12:29:17 PM

Quote from: sumantso on January 17, 2014, 12:25:04 AM
Looks like the same last minute donation syndrome struck PTS today. Donation was 2.7k - way below the average - and within 8 minutes of the clock striking midnight 520 PTS donations cleared.

Folks - give 40 minutes for donations to clear.

as long as you send it away before time runs out it's ok right?

It has to have 1 confirm (unless I am massively mistaken, in which case the explorers are giving out wrong info).

The block generated time is taken as the time of donation.

Quote from: sumantso on January 17, 2014, 12:25:04 AM
Looks like the same last minute donation syndrome struck PTS today. Donation was 2.7k - way below the average - and within 8 minutes of the clock striking midnight 520 PTS donations cleared.

Folks - give 40 minutes for donations to clear.

as long as you send it away before time runs out it's ok right?

Looks like the same last minute donation syndrome struck PTS today. Donation was 2.7k - way below the average - and within 8 minutes of the clock striking midnight 520 PTS donations cleared.

Folks - give 40 minutes for donations to clear.

It has been a good day for BTC donations. Now I wonder if it is due to the price creeping up (PTS has been going up too), or a few investors thought it was a slow day as our 10 BTC donor (mentioned above) was late.

Good to see people not waiting till the last minute to donate. Only one transaction got stuck (it was sent without fee).

As expected, its already 39 BTC donations today. I assumed this dude (https://blockchain.info/address/1PKztBuJghnBnA7baWUqencPKxjCLLiLgH) would invest 5 BTC today, but seems he went 10 BTC today.

The 'correct' BTC donation/day for the last few days seem to be around 45-46 BTC. Lets see if it can break 50 today.

Btw, this one (https://blockchain.info/address/1PQjUdLcMT6Q9wrsymB2zmPsDK8BDkNCPQ) is donating a fixed 10 BTC everyday (you can track it back) and so doesn't seem too interesting from our investment PoV. I do wonder how many days he plans to donate though. If its more than 100 days then it means almost a million dollars!

Yeah, that was fun watching this morning :)

I usually donate about 1 or 2 hours before midnight GMT when I'm having breakfast.

UPDATE: Seems like people are still sending in late and they are missing the deadline. To reiterate, if you definitely want to send today do so atleast 40 minutes in advance. Otherwise you run the risk of the donations getting credited the next day. Which is fine except that if there is a lot of leftover transactions the next day will see more donations and you will get less AGS.

The transactions list below here http://www1.agsexplorer.com/ is very useful. Shows how much donations couldn't reach in time. Today was the best day in this regard - 10+ BTC confirmed just after deadline :)

This is the biggest deadline miss - the last highest was some 7 BTC on 6th Jan which resulted in donation jumping from 45 BTC to 54 BTC the next day. I guess we may see a big jump today.

I have been donating each day after 2/3rds of the day has passed. The amount depends on the BTC already donated by that time. I skipped donating on 4th (faulty explorer caused under reporting of BTC) and 7th (late deposit from previous day).

Is this the best investment strategy? I think it is. Lets consider the 2 scenarios:
1> Already not much donated by my donation time. I then donate more than average as I expect bargain hunters to jump in later. If those transactions clear then I get the average; but if those get stuck (happened twice by now) then I get a bargain.

2> Already much donated. This usually happens if their is slippage from previous day. In that case I donate less than average as I expect a lot of investors have divided their BTC and investing a fixed amount daily.

Anybody else has a better strategy? Would love to know. Also, for how many days are you planning? 2months? 3 months?

In anycase, if you are sniping in at the end, give yourselves 40 minutes for the transaction to confirm. If it misses not only you lose the bargain price, you also end up at a higher price the next day.

EDIT: I realise posting this may have skewed how the investment goes so the strategy may end up useless. I guess the only thing you can take from this post is don't try to get in at the last minute (though I would love another day like today).