Welcome back to $50MM Market Cap

[donkeypong]

It's kind of you to share your insight.

[CossCrypto]

Very interesting perspective...

I'm not a trader myself, I'm in for the long run. But I can see how market manipulation, with the right amount of capital in a market with low liquidity, can be very profitable. That's pretty much why I don't do it, I'm a small player and would end up being eaten alive by big shot market vultures.

But in any case, it's good to know that current price fluctuations aren't caused by the general mood of the investors.

I would like to see more of this kind of analysis in here, but I do understand nobody would want to give away their secrets for free

I traded for 3 years for fun (demo account), 3 years as hobby and I'm doing it since 4 years as my job. When I did it as hobby, I lost money for about 2 and half years and I always was the guy buying high and selling low (still happens). Over the years I read several books and completed "trading courses" like the one offered by "babypips" (traders will probably know this site). And since I entered cryptotrading, I added a 3rd screen to my setup so that I could look at some more beautiful charts at the same time.
There are so many beautiful things to see in around the world (or even if I only look outside the window)...and I basically look at charts on my screens for 16 hours a day. And I'm still so addicted that I can't stop doing it, even if I would love to.
Considering this background...

No offense, but personally i do not like when people claim that they earn more than 30%  a year while  trading. Also i do not believe in technical analysis and people selling their trading secrets.

One reason I avoided to contribute to a great forum like this for all this time, is that people always see the "bad in things" first. What I mean with this? I took a lot of time just to share a theory on why the market is moving the way it is and it seems that you got stuck at the one sentence where I said that I made some profits over the last couple of months. Because maybe if you would have read it all, you would see that your answer does not make much sense.
What trading secrets? And where am I selling something?
I did not tell anybody to buy/sell or whatever.
I told everybody what I did recently, and why i did it. If you believe that revealing my chart settings over a 1 month time span along with a bit of technical analysis is "revealing trading secrets"...then you may not be aware of the huge blogs that exist which make a living just by describing how charts move and why.

While I traded for hobby, my main job was being a Texas Hold'em poker player. And it's a really hard way to make an easy living. And you know what? 2% succeed...98% fail. When did I start to succeed? After about 1.500.000 played hands (Holdem Manager tracking stats)...Today my database consists of 7.500.000 played hands. I would play up to 14 6max 100NL Turbo tables at the same time...and I still was earning (but it was no fun anymore, and really stressing me out mentally).
So you should realize that you don't believe people who say they earn "30%+" a year just because you probably always choose the fastest and easiest way. Like "buying BTSX now and become rich with it" (like it happened for some lucky early BTC adopters). People who never dedicated themselves to something for 10-16h for each single day, for years...won't surely believe that this is possible.

But "30% a year"? I would quit this job and get another one right away. 30% can be made in a month. 200% can be made in a month. Depends on the volatility of the market, the volume, your knowledge and skills etc...But I studied too hard to make "only 30%" a year. I could have been around the world instead of inside a dark room, with 3 screens.
And I'm not even participating in pump/dumb parties of other Cryptocoins. You know that they are illegal in real trading markets, right? And that they allow traders to earn 1000%+ in a few days? Leaving the "pump/dump" marketing aside, the rest is "pure market manipulation" by a few guys...which will earn sums you won't believe in for sure. Many crytpocurrency markets work the same way as penny stock markets do. And the techniques used in these markets to manipulate it, are far from new. Probably many pump/dumb success traders just watched "The Wolf of Wall Street" to start earning, lol 

@CossCrypto, interesting.  Care to draw a prediction of what will happen in the immediate term?

Someone in the chat on bter a few days ago said they saw an order 750BTC appear and immediately disappear.

As for everything I say, this is just my thought:
drawing a prediction in such a small market, is completely useless. Because there were times where this one guy wanted the charts to go down while I wanted them to go up. So at the end of each 30 minute period, there were a lot of trades in both sides. This "battle" lasted 14 hours in which I think we accounted for about 110BTC of the BTSX trading volume of that day. I lost the battle, because when I had no funds left (and you realize when your competitor is running out of funds...there are many signs) he posted 2 sell orders for a total of 60BTC. When I quitted trading, the market stopped for 4 hours. Nothing happened (it was night time in china, dinner time in the States and GMT+2 where I live - 2am). But after that it still went in "his direction" even if all the indicator signals were against it.
So...with this kind of manipulation, a forecast is useless. You best decide on a daily basis (if you do this for a living, else I would just hold and earn ).
And active traders in a certain market, try to stay up to date with that market. So traders on Bter might see the forecast and say "let's have some fun".

Wouldn't be nice if we had a section like "market report" or "price speculation" (actually both of these exist already, the first by my self but no one really use them anymore..) and people with experience share these kind of graphs and their analysis, give speculation for the price and we discuss these things? In the end it will be clear who knows his staff, will earn some trading reputation, maybe people that use the traders advice if they make money they then tip them, or maybe in the future some traders could team up and get voted as delegates and get paid? There will be many different teams of delegates in the future anyway...So essentially day traders can give the rest of us some trading tips and get paid for their services..

Thanks for saying something nice  ...and the idea is pretty cool to. But I would probably to focused on the trading itself to participate in this and as you can see from above, it's always believed that people "sell something" or "manipulate" others or whatever. I still believe that some things in this world are free. Even if I gave up on this selfish, superficial and materialistic humanity already years ago  .
Do you know of that one guy who started off with a giant red paper clip and after years of "Exchanges" with another object, he managed to get a house with it? Cool story.

[lil_jay890]

No offense, but personally i do not like when people claim that they earn more than 30%  a year while  trading. Also i do not believe in technical analysis and people selling their trading secrets.

People do it all the time and earn even more than that.  The people who blow up their accounts trading are the ones who are the loudest and say its impossible just because they couldn't do it.  Those are usually the people with little discipline and can't stand being wrong, so they ride their losers into the ground.

[mf-tzo]

Wouldn't be nice if we had a section like "market report" or "price speculation" (actually both of these exist already, the first by my self but no one really use them anymore..) and people with experience share these kind of graphs and their analysis, give speculation for the price and we discuss these things? In the end it will be clear who knows his staff, will earn some trading reputation, maybe people that use the traders advice if they make money they then tip them, or maybe in the future some traders could team up and get voted as delegates and get paid? There will be many different teams of delegates in the future anyway...So essentially day traders can give the rest of us some trading tips and get paid for their services..

[xeroc]

@CossCrypto
Thanks for the insides .. gives me some confidence in the community .. I really thought they were disappointed by the improvements lately

[vlight]

No offense, but personally i do not like when people claim that they earn more than 30%  a year while  trading. Also i do not believe in technical analysis and people selling their trading secrets.

[matt608]

@CossCrypto, interesting.  Care to draw a prediction of what will happen in the immediate term?

Someone in the chat on bter a few days ago said they saw an order 750BTC appear and immediately disappear.

[Chuckone]

Very interesting perspective...

I'm not a trader myself, I'm in for the long run. But I can see how market manipulation, with the right amount of capital in a market with low liquidity, can be very profitable. That's pretty much why I don't do it, I'm a small player and would end up being eaten alive by big shot market vultures.

But in any case, it's good to know that current price fluctuations aren't caused by the general mood of the investors.

I would like to see more of this kind of analysis in here, but I do understand nobody would want to give away their secrets for free

[CossCrypto]

I honestly don't understand why there's so much selling pressure right now? Is it unsatisfied stake holders cashing out because they disagree with the merger and want to move their funds elsewhere? Can't understand why the merger could be perceived as something negative for the futre... Or is it simply change that is perceived as bad?

Hi, I'm just a new registered user of this forum but i follow it since the 5th november 2013. Never contributed because I'm actually a day trader (it's my job since 4 years now, forex trading). April 2013 I started to enter the Bitcoin world trading BTC on btc-e. Today I trade on Bter, Cryptsy, Btc-e, Bittrex and Poloniex.
Since the BTSX market opened on BTER, I focused most of my trading there.

I know that members on this forum do not really like day traders because they "play" with the price to make a profit. But believe me or not, I'm a BTSX believer since the very beginning. Actually I fell for the Invictus team after I read about "Keyhotee" which was "the future" in my eyes. It was pure innovation at the time. The same as Bitshares is now. "Simplicity of usage" is still one of the most important things to go with, and the BTSX wallet with the cute bots...will be the future in my eyes.

Anyway, what I wanted to say is that I make my profits day-trading but my major interest is to substain BTSX price about 18 hours, each day. In 2 months trading I increased my BTSX holdings by 73%.
I give you this quick background just to say that I'm a trading maniac and I dream of japanese candlesticks the 6 hours I usually sleep. So what is happening here, in my eyes, is pure market manipulation. Nothing else. And if you play in the market the whole day, you get to know the other players (which get really angry sometimes when someone goes against their market making plans and so they show you their "power" by placing some huge orders).
From what I've experienced over the last 2 months, the biggest player on Bter is pushing around the market with about 660BTC of capital, and he basically does what he wants since nearly a month. Most of the btsx trading there, has nothing to do with the "news". It's just an analytic game. There are so many techniques to manipulate the order book...and with 600BTC of capital in a market with such "low" volume (compared to real trading markets), you just do what you want by becoming the market maker.

And if you have trading experience, you make things happen when "they should happen". Or have you never observed that huge trades nealry always happen at the end of "30 minutes" and "1 hour" periods? Because with enough capital, this allows you to DRAW the charts yourself.

And with pure "technical analysis" you can easily make a lot of profitable trades (and technical analysis would not work to predict this market if there where no whales with experience in it - but only investors that realize what kind of innovation this is - because technical analysis is...just a game)

To backup my theory have a look at my chart settings for BTSX/BTC




You can see my last "huge trades" on it (which are in a different niche than day trades) - where I sold, and where I bought most of it back.

As you can see, finding a good entry point to short BTSX was really easy. You have higher price highs accompanied by lower MACD highs (divergence), decreasing trading volume, a Fibonacci resistance from a much previous high-low slope, slow MA crosses fast MA, price gets pushed below MA, a spinning top candlestick...and so on (you had signals on Stochastic RSI, Aaron and Accumulation/Distribution indicators 2).

Next you will see where I bought back in (5400-5900)...reasons are the same: a lot of "analytic trading signals" (similar to the ones explained above).

And I could talk about "double top signals" and other chart patterns you see in the BTSX chart but this quick example is just to say that most of what happens in these markets, is just pure trading. And the whole selling pressure recently is caused by 1-2 traders. Do you never wonder why a for example somebody sells 50BTC at let's say 6550 (like yesterday) and buying walls of 40BTC+10BTC appear at 6100 at the same time?

Good and bad news surely move the market of altcoins, but the large spreads and relatively low trading volumes make these a paradise for people like forex day traders. So if you are not into trading, you should not really worry about how the price fluctuates right now. Because it's obvious that it will rise soon, to me at least :p (I was already wrong a lot of times in my life, take nothing for granted )

And btw, have you noticed the bot replicating buy/sell orders from Bter (only seconds later) onto btc38 (with a 30-40 satoshi price difference)?

[Pheonike]

They feel BM broke his promise.  They are same kind of people who would sue you for broken ribs because you stopped them from choking by using the heimlich.

[donkeypong]

I honestly don't understand why there's so much selling pressure right now? Is it unsatisfied stake holders cashing out because they disagree with the merger and want to move their funds elsewhere? Can't understand why the merger could be perceived as something negative for the futre... Or is it simply change that is perceived as bad?

Who knows? Could be any or all of those things. Whoever they are, if their hands are this weak with the largely positive news this week, I'd rather bleed the idiots out of BTSX sooner rather than later. Gives us one more buying opportunity, right?

[Chuckone]

Agreeing not to sell doesn't matter - when you hit the price point and everyone wants to cash out there needs to be the demand to catch it anyway.

Correct - folks seem more concerned with Step 1 (share price XX) than Step 2 (realizing gains).

Nonetheless I'd love to see the sell side dry up and watch the FOMO rocket take off.

I honestly don't understand why there's so much selling pressure right now? Is it unsatisfied stake holders cashing out because they disagree with the merger and want to move their funds elsewhere? Can't understand why the merger could be perceived as something negative for the futre... Or is it simply change that is perceived as bad?

[donkeypong]

A $1 pledge would be a publicity stunt, mostly. A gesture of faith to astound newbies at our great belief in how far this can go. I thought it would be cool to have a $1 pledge backed by a voluntary gesture on the part of pledgers: placing a $1 sell order on an exchange for any amount people can afford of BTS/BTSX. (Never leave more on an exchange than you can afford to lose.) I thought it would be neat to see a big wall develop on there, furthering the publicity element of this pledge.

However, I tried placing a 500 BTSX sell order on Bter at the BTC price equivalent of $1. While the system accepts the order, and it appears in your pending orders list, the order never appears on the "Sell" board. I realized that the highest-priced sell order on Bter is about 30% higher than the current ask. So maybe the exchange just doesn't want too much crazy stuff to manipulate the price on there. This is understandable.

Any other suggestions?

[oldman]

Agreeing not to sell doesn't matter - when you hit the price point and everyone wants to cash out there needs to be the demand to catch it anyway.

Correct - folks seem more concerned with Step 1 (share price XX) than Step 2 (realizing gains).

Nonetheless I'd love to see the sell side dry up and watch the FOMO rocket take off.

[toast]

Agreeing not to sell doesn't matter - when you hit the price point and everyone wants to cash out there needs to be the demand to catch it anyway.