Author Topic: 请多方投票支持喂价改革算法公式  (Read 607 times)

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Offline gghi

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请多方投票支持喂价改革算法公式
« on: September 06, 2018, 12:05:05 am »
          公式产生的背景,为了更好的贯彻BSIP42,采用负反馈动态调整喂价的提案。见证人对算法目前意见不统一,导致喂价偏差太大。
   abit最初提出了这个公式 喂价=BTS市场价*(biycny/cny)^N,非常具有代表性,意义重大。但是这个公式中的默认调控目标为“0”。根据宏观调控需要有个明确的目标,我加上了调控目标M,即喂价=BTS市场价*(biycny/cny+M)^N,实际上,abit的公式可以是改进公式里M=0的特殊状况。
        有了调控目标M,以及加速因子N,那么这个算法公式已经很完美了。但是目前见证人意见不统一,希望通过投票的方式来达成共识。

具体论证帖子,https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=26315.315


     In order to better implement BSIP42, we adopt negative feedback to dynamically adjust the price of feed. The current opinion of the witness is not uniform to the algorithm, which results in too much deviation in the price.
Abit initially proposed the formula feed = BTS market price * (biycny / cny) ^ N, which is very representative and significant. But the default control target in this formula is "0". According to the need for macroeconomic regulation and control to have a clear goal, I added the regulation and control target M, that is, feed price = BTS market price * (biycny / CNY + M) ^ N, in fact, the abit formula can be improved formula M = 0 in the special situation.
With the control target M and the acceleration factor N, the algorithm formula is perfect. However, at present, the eyewitness is not unified and hopes to reach a consensus through voting.

Specific argumentation, https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php? Topic=26315.315
« Last Edit: September 06, 2018, 11:27:23 pm by gghi »

Offline gghi

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Re: 请多方投票支持喂价改革算法公式
« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2018, 11:02:06 pm »
          还是这里论证下负反馈公式的详细推演数据。

举例论证公式效果,宽松目标负2%,即M=0.02,加速因子N=3
当溢价负0.04时(折扣4%),加速因子喂3。理想喂价 = BTS市场价 * (1-0.04+0.02)^3=BTS市场价 *0.98^3=BTS市场价 *0.9411,结论:市场价下调约6%,满意,也安全。

当溢价负0.03时(折扣3%),加速因子喂3。理想喂价 = BTS市场价 * (1-0.03+0.02)^3=BTS市场价 *0.99^3=BTS市场价 *0.97,结论:市场价下调约3%,满意,也安全。

当溢价负0.02时(折扣2%),加速因子喂3。理想喂价 = BTS市场价 * (1-0.02+0.02)^3=BTS市场价 *1^3=BTS市场价 *1,结论:目标达到理想状态,无需调整。
当溢价负0.01时(折扣1%),加速因子喂3。理想喂价 = BTS市场价 * (1-0.01+0.02)^3=BTS市场价 *1.01^3=BTS市场价 *1.030301,结论:市场价提高3%,接近理想目标。
当溢价0时,加速因子喂3。理想喂价 = BTS市场价 * (1+0.02)^3=BTS市场价 *1.02^3=BTS市场价 *1.0612,结论:市场价提高约6%,很满意,也很安全。

当溢价0.01时,加速因子喂3。理想喂价 = BTS市场价 * (1.01+0.02)^3=BTS市场价 *1.03^3=BTS市场价 *1.092727,结论:市场价提高约9.2%,满意,也很安全。
当溢价0.02时,加速因子喂3。理想喂价 = BTS市场价 * (1.02+0.02)^3=BTS市场价 *1.04^3=BTS市场价 *1.125,结论:市场价提高约12%,满意,也安全。
当溢价0.03时,加速因子喂3。理想喂价 = BTS市场价 * (1.03+0.02)^3=BTS市场价 *1.05^3=BTS市场价 *1.157625,结论:市场价提高约16%,满意,也安全。
当溢价0.04时,加速因子喂3。理想喂价 = BTS市场价 * (1.04+0.02)^3=BTS市场价 *1.06^3=BTS市场价 *1.191,结论:市场价提高约19%,满意,风险依然可控。

        结论:溢价越大,喂价可以上调的空间越大,折扣越大,喂价下调的空间越大。

It is also the detailed deductive data of the negative feedback formula under this argument.

An example is given to demonstrate the formula effect. The loose target is minus 2%, that is, M=0.02, the acceleration factor N=3.
When the premium is negative 0.04 (discount 4%), the acceleration factor is 3. The ideal feeding price = BTS market price * 1-0.04+0.02) ^ 3 = BTS market price * 0.98 ^ 3 = BTS market price * 0.9411. Conclusion: The market price is reduced by about 6%, satisfactory and safe.

When the premium is negative 0.03 (discount 3%), the acceleration factor is 3. The ideal feeding price = BTS market price * 1-0.03+0.02) ^ 3 = BTS market price * 0.99 ^ 3 = BTS market price * 0.97. Conclusion: The market price is reduced by about 3%, satisfactory and safe.
When the premium is negative 0.02 (discount 2%), the acceleration factor is 3. The ideal feeding price = BTS market price * 1-0.02+0.02) ^ 3 = BTS market price * 1 ^ 3 = BTS market price * 1. Conclusion: The target is in an ideal state without adjustment.
When the premium is negative 0.01 (discount 1%), the acceleration factor is 3. Ideal feeding price = BTS market price * 1-0.01+0.02) ^ 3 = BTS market price * 1.01 ^ 3 = BTS market price * 1.030301, conclusion: the market price increases by 3%, close to the ideal target.
When the premium is 0, the acceleration factor is 3. Ideal feeding price = BTS market price * 1 + 0.02) ^ 3 = BTS market price * 1.02 ^ 3 = BTS market price * 1.0612, conclusion: the market price increase of about 6%, very satisfactory and safe.

When the premium is 0.01, the acceleration factor is 3. The ideal feeding price = BTS market price * 1.01 + 0.02) ^ 3 = BTS market price * 1.03 ^ 3 = BTS market price * 1.092727. Conclusion: The market price increases about 9.2%, satisfactory and safe.
When the premium is 0.02, the acceleration factor is 3. The ideal feeding price = BTS market price * 1.02 + 0.02) ^ 3 = BTS market price * 1.04 ^ 3 = BTS market price * 1.125. Conclusion: The market price increases about 12%, satisfactory and safe.
When the premium is 0.03, the acceleration factor is 3. The ideal feeding price = BTS market price * 1.03 + 0.02) ^ 3 = BTS market price * 1.05 ^ 3 = BTS market price * 1.157625. Conclusion: The increase of market price is about 16%, satisfactory and safe.
When the premium is 0.04, the acceleration factor is 3. The ideal feeding price = BTS market price * 1.04 + 0.02) ^ 3 = BTS market price * 1.06 ^ 3 = BTS market price * 1.191. Conclusion: The market price increases about 19%, satisfaction, risk is still controllable.

Conclusion: The bigger the premium, the bigger the space for feeding price to be raised, the bigger the discount, and the bigger the space for feeding price to be lowered.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2018, 11:29:35 pm by gghi »

Offline gghi

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Re: 请多方投票支持喂价改革算法公式
« Reply #2 on: September 08, 2018, 01:20:54 pm »
          喂价改革已经成功了一半,目前溢价已经可以控制在5%之内了。BTS接下来还需要很多改革,需要不断完善。如何促进BTS的价格长期不断的上涨,是我们接下来需要努力解决的事情。除了增加市场需求外,还可以从机制上着手。

       我们应该建立个长效机制,不断地上调MCR,以促进系统的稳定运行。人性是贪婪的,必须强制玩家降低抵押率,最好的办法就是不断的抬升MCR。同时,在bitcny需求不变的时候,MCR的上升和喂价是正反馈的关系,MCR的上升要求喂价上升,从而带动BTS市场价不断上涨。外界才不管什么原因导致了BTS的价格上涨了,他们只看价格。
      如果这个机制完善后,可以看到未来BTS登上全球市值第一的宝座。

   The feed price reform has been half successful, and the premium is now within 5%. BTS still needs a lot of reforms and needs to be perfected. How to promote the long-term price rise of BTS is the next thing we need to work hard to solve. In addition to increasing market demand, we can start from the mechanism.

We should establish a long-term mechanism to continuously increase MCR so as to promote the stable operation of the system. Human nature is greedy. We must force players to reduce mortgage rates. The best way is to keep lifting MCR. At the same time, when the demand for bitcny remains unchanged, the rise of MCR and feeding is a positive feedback relationship. The rise of MCR requires feeding to rise, thus driving the BTS market price to rise continuously. No matter what the outside world causes the price of BTS to rise, they only look at the price.
If this mechanism is perfected, we can see that BTS will be the first in the world.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2018, 11:18:33 pm by gghi »

Offline gghi

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Re: 请多方投票支持喂价改革算法公式
« Reply #3 on: September 11, 2018, 01:03:58 am »
       举个例子说明抬升MCR的必要性。价值30万的一栋房子,银行允许贷款20万,那么银行承担的风险很大,因为只要房价腰斩,价值15万了就会资不抵债。如果银行强制规则,贷款20万需要价值300万的房子作为抵押物,那么银行的风险就会降到最低限度。但是客户已经用价值30万的房子抵押贷款了20万了,怎么办,银行只有等房子不断升值,才可以逐渐提高抵押条件。直到客户的房子涨到了300万了,那么银行才能实现300万的房子贷款20万规定。
      我们的BTS系统也是一样,现在MCR1.75,系统风险很大很大。因为BTS 的价格波动比房子厉害的多了,曾经从6.5跌倒0.58,那么我们的MCR=1.75如何抵抗风险?至少需要MCR17.5,才可以高枕无忧。假定抵押人抵押的BTS数量不变,那么MCR要想从1.75抬升到17.5,就必须喂价上涨10倍。
       例如,喂价1元,我有1万个BTS价值10000元,在MCR=1.75的时候,假如最大可借17500。假如MCR=17.5了,那么价值10000 的BTS只能借出1750了。怎么办,要借出17500的bitcny,在MCR=17.5的时候,需要价值10万元的BTS背书。但是抵押人只有1万个BTS,那么只要BTS喂价涨到10元即可。
      结论:不断地抬升MCR,是一箭双雕,两全其美的策略。即保证了系统安全稳定运行,同时又提高了BTS的市值。
« Last Edit: September 11, 2018, 01:07:05 am by gghi »

Offline gghi

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Re: 请多方投票支持喂价改革算法公式
« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2018, 01:44:41 am »
   目前为止,这个算法公式理论上是最高效的,溢价2%时可以对市场价提高约12%。建议见证人采用,M=0.02,N=3,或者N=5。