Author Topic: why not borrowing?  (Read 576 times)

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Offline bitstopia2049

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Re: why not borrowing?
« Reply #15 on: June 10, 2019, 02:52:48 pm »
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in your eyes anytime the market is in down trend and we shouldn't do anything until the up trend come.

some CEXs has adopted CNY as base currency but suffered the shortage of bitCNY and finally unlisted it.

currently the key task is to guarantee the bitCNY supply.

No, that is your claim.Its a reason why some people don't borrow currently.I'm  fully in stablecoin and observing some bigger players who do borrow i also saw they exchanged part of their debt to stablecoins.

I agree that main focus should be now to provide supply of stable coins but we have also to accept that current stable coins can be mainly only used to buy directly BTS.
First goal should be to make stable coins more attractiv to be able to buy other major coins anytime at market prices and giving holders of stable coins the possibility to use it on diffrent exchanges with small spread in prices.



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Frankly ..I don't put too much weight behind TA (technical analysis)...because at then end of the day..it's all a reflection of mass psychology... that's why $billions are spent on advertising every day..

how else does one explain the valuation of Dogecoin(#29) while BTS is (#51).... or CryptoKitties..

I think social, economic, financial and politcal events will impact price more than anything else...

You never know what kind of motivation will move markets...

 https://bitcoinist.com/how-the-mega-rich-buy-their-bitcoin

https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-exchange-site-traffic-may-coinbase-binance/


1.Leverage via stablecoins which makes BTS more volatile.It also means that BTS will rise way quicker in an uptrend than dodgecoin .
2.Way better marketing and adoption of dodgecoin.For me it currently seems bitshares oversleept marketing and adoption compared to other coins which it needs now to catch up quickly.

A good refference point is DAI.
How does it come that DAI is already listed everywhere where bitshares or its stablecoins try to get implemented?

Since you don't care about major TA signals what event is bitshares going to produce in next 30 days which in your opinion will impact the price more than major trends ?
I'm asking cause i do also belive that some events are stronger than market trends.

I agree with you...Marketing has to generate multiple consumer use cases for smartcoins in order to have steady growth and adoption..

Right now BTS needs a "spark" or catalyst to spike the demand...

I sent you a PM

Offline BTSMoon

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Re: why not borrowing?
« Reply #16 on: June 11, 2019, 07:28:26 am »
我觉得搞错对象了,每个人的玩法还有可承受风险是不一样的,你应该去拉抵押ETH借DAI的那些人。

Offline Customminer

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Re: why not borrowing?
« Reply #17 on: June 11, 2019, 07:10:21 pm »
If CEX offered the ability to borrow bitCNY using BTS directly on their CEX (borrowing on BTS DEX on their behalf) perhaps you'd see more borrowers?

Offline bitcrab

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Re: why not borrowing?
« Reply #18 on: June 12, 2019, 02:28:07 am »
now it's also a good time to borrow bitEUR.

Offline bitstopia2049

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Re: why not borrowing?
« Reply #19 on: June 12, 2019, 09:24:42 pm »

Since you don't care about major TA signals what event is bitshares going to produce in next 30 days which in your opinion will impact the price more than major trends ?
I'm asking cause i do also belive that some events are stronger than market trends.

IN SEARCH OF THE POSITIVE BLACK SWAN

"Black swan logic makes what you don’t know far more relevant than what you do know"

In re-reading some of Nicholas Taleb writings...

Fooled By Randomness Summary   
https://fourminutebooks.com/fooled-by-randomness-summary/

1-Sentence-Summary: Fooled By Randomness explains how luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making work together to influence our actions,
set against the backdrop of business and specifically, investing, to uncover how much bigger the role of chance in our lives is, than we usually make it out to be.

http://amzn.to/2BMueBS

Lesson 1: Life isn’t fair, which makes the rewards of continued effort excessively big.


I think BTS has to get on the "right" path and reach a "tipping point" ..

======

Below is an excerpt from the intro to one reviewer's opinion regarding the Black Swan...

the complete text is here..
https://thepowermoves.com/the-black-swan/


{Quoting the reviewer}

   " In this (personal) essay, I stick my neck out and make a claim, against many of our habits of thought, that our world is dominated by the extreme, the unknown, and the very improbable (improbable according our current knowledge)–and all the while we spend our time engaged in small talk, focusing on the known, and the repeated.

    This implies the need to use the extreme event as a starting point and not treat it as an exception to be pushed under the rug.  I also make the bolder (and more annoying) claim that in spite of our progress and the growth in knowledge, or perhaps because of such progress and growth, the future will be increasingly less predictable, while both human nature and social “science” seem to conspire to hide the idea from us."



                  What’s a Black Swan

A black swan is a highly improbable event that catches most everyone by surprise and can potentially disrupt human activities or create havoc.

Conversely, a highly expected event not happening is also a black swan.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb says that a small number of black swans explain almost everything in our world, from religions to historical events to our own personal lives.

As the world became more complicated and interconnected, the potential effects of predictable events decreases while the potential effects of black swans has further increased.

 A BLACK SWAN IS A LOW PROBABILITY, LARGE IMPACT EVENT


               You Cannot Measure Black Swans

Black swans, by their own nature of being so unlikely and lying outside most people’s grasp, are extremely difficult to measure and compute.

The unmeasurability of black swan and the human tendency of discounting their very possibility, is a central tenet in the book.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb has had first hand experience in a field highly susceptible to black swans and yet theoretically full of data and measures.
That field is finance and trading.
Taleb mocks and taunts the mathematical models of investment banks, saying they all operated under the false assumption that there are tools to measure uncertainty.

The author says that many models of portfolio and risk management exclude the possibility of a black swan.
This was the case for Long Term Capital Management, where the Nobel-prize winning founders, so sure of their mathematical models, loaded up on risk and created a time bomb. At the very first black swan, within a few years of its inception, LTCM risked taking the whole financial system down - turns out that “long term” is relative :)-


In particular..


                     A Wise Man Knows He Doesn’t Know Anything

Taleb promotes a focus on “anti-knowledge”, such as a focus on what we don’t know.

He says we should not try to predict them but adjust to them. And when we adjust to them, we can position ourselves not only to limit the downsides, but also to take advantage of possibly positive black swans, what he calls “serendipitous black swans”.
         
                            We need to adjust to black swan existence instead of naively trying to predict them



I try to advocate for marketing workers to "try something different"... i.e.  since "success" is path-dependent and non-linear... why not initiate activity on a new course that may lead to a positive black swan for BTS?

I don't know what will happen in the next 30 days...and if I apply an "anti-knowledge" perspective to what I do know --  i.e. conventional marketing methods have been tried for years, in a very competitive and technologically dynamic environment, but to date have yielded disappointing financial results --

I think new marketing strategies should be undertaken that avoid what Taleb calls

The Round-Trip Error

."... the tendency to confuse “no evidence of black swans as evidence of no black swans”.



i.e. just because there is an absence of evidence that a particular marketing strategy has worked in the past should not allow for conscious or subconscious bias to dismiss the strategy as infeasible or unworkable or DOA (dead on arrival).   
Black swans exist whether we want to believe or not... by definition they are low probability events but. NOT IMPOSSIBLE events..

BTS needs a POSITIVE Black Swan..

Offline Crypto Kong

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Re: why not borrowing?
« Reply #20 on: June 15, 2019, 01:03:19 pm »
Until there are on chain incentives to create smartcoins and provide liquidity with them, there will be no serious supply increase. It's about time liquidity providers were rewarded, at the moment its all risk and no reward.

When someone creates a smartcoin there should be a mechanism that rewards the user with BTS for safe collateral ratios and for placing the smartcoins on the books. Rewards would only be paid out to users with CR above 3 for example for a period of time at which those orders remained on the books within say 5% of the market centre price, the closer to the centre price and higher the call ratio the better the reward.

Combine this with a maker/ taker fee schedule and you will see people start to take a real interest in creating smartcoins and providing liquidity with them.

BitShares is no different from any other exchange in the sense that it needs to incentivise liquidity providers if it wants to succeed.
« Last Edit: June 15, 2019, 01:11:06 pm by Crypto Kong »

Offline bench

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Re: why not borrowing?
« Reply #21 on: June 15, 2019, 08:41:30 pm »
I prefer the Norns over FIAT pegged bitassets. 👍
Why?

Offline bitstopia2049

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Re: why not borrowing?
« Reply #22 on: June 15, 2019, 10:15:10 pm »
The key point is how to use it after borrowing out?

Buy bts or other token?

Lend it?how?

https://medium.com/@anunimo/worlds-first-live-streamed-mouse-racing-micerace-com-accepting-only-crypto-bitcoins-as-bets-aa1efc5988ba

Why not ...?

A use case for smartcoins...and maybe a BTS positive black swan...

 
It's on 24/7, global, needs user friendly stable coins for bets instead of satoshis,.

& BTS blockchain obviously has faster confirmation times compared to BTC, (bettors can reload their accounts faster with cheaper network fees)

If CryptoKitties became so popular that its ERC-20 token could bring the ETH network to a crawl..

If Dogecoin phenomenon can produce a higher market cap value for its token holders than BTS

It might seem like a wild longshot...but is the crypto market any more rational?

It's quite fun actually...I tried it...LOL!

I'm sure the BTS marketing worker can reach out to the operators and get hooked up within a day..

again... Why not?  people bet on horses, dogs, every sports game imaginable...