Author Topic: To illustrate the absurdity of Black Swan Events  (Read 487 times)

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Offline bitstopia2049

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To illustrate the absurdity of Black Swan Events
« on: June 15, 2019, 10:52:24 pm »
Read this thread first if you haven't already,  to understand the context..."In Search of the positive black swan"...   

      "Adjusting" to the Black Swan event.... { A bit of humorous fiction}

The women's soccer World Cup in France....On Tuesday (June 11)  Thailand lost their first group match to the US...13 - 0

I would call this a Black Swan event....positive for the US...negative for Thailand..

Initially I felt sorry for the Thai team.

but I thought to myself if I was the Thai coach  at half time ..with score being 3 - 0 and knowing that:

 (a)  the US would probably score at least the same or more goals in the second half &  the odds of winning (or a draw)  against the US was ABSOLUTELY ZERO !

(b)  that 16 (of 24 total) teams would advance to the next round, including the 4 best third place teams in their group  (Bonus money !!)
         and Thailand was at least ranked ahead of 6 other teams coming into the tournament
(c) Goal differential was the first tie breaker

[SCENE:  Team locker room...Everyone sitting down in a semi-circle..drinking water and eating bananas..]

Coach says, 

"Listen guys...Umm..sorry....girls.....I'll be blunt...We gonna' get our ass kicked today worse than the Brazilians did against Germany (7-1) ..if we don't do something different..

I can't lose a bucket load of bonus money.. I can't afford that...I gotta' house mortgage..

So... here's the the 2nd half...I want everybody to stand in front of our goal for 45 minutes ...If the referee complains..Dont worry..the rules don't say it's illegal...I looked it up...

We'll call it the Thai version of "parking the bus"... (Thank you Sweden).. can all close your mouths now and wipe that shocked look off your face.... and thank me later in a couple of weeks when you are counting your bonus money..!.

OK...let's go... I'll take you all out to dinner as soon as the match is over.......I don't think the US team is going to be in any mood to shake hands or do any of  the usual end-of-match hugs and shit..


Pị kạn t̄hexa     !!!!     ("LET'S GO"   in Thai)

                     Chapter 2... THE SUPER MEGA BLACK SWAN EVENT

2019     World Cup Final:       THAILAND vs  JAMAICA 

Las Vegas casinos and bookies REFUSE to make odds on the game and reject US$1 Billion in bets..!

stay tuned..

Offline bitcrab

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Re: To illustrate the absurdity of Black Swan Events
« Reply #1 on: June 16, 2019, 04:28:17 am »
interesting discussion, although I don't think the "parking the bus" method will help Thailand girls to defeat US team. :)

Offline bitstopia2049

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Re: To illustrate the absurdity of Black Swan Events
« Reply #2 on: June 16, 2019, 04:52:30 am »
interesting discussion, although I don't think the "parking the bus" method will help Thailand girls to defeat US team. :)

Well ..the idea is not to defeat the the coach has already come to the conclusion the chance of that is ABSOLUTELY ZERO...

As referenced in the other thread.. the tactic would be to  "limit the downside."

if Thailand loses the game by 3-0  they still have chance to continue in the competition to the next round
because they can advance as one of the 4 teams who end up in third place in their Group...{the top 2 in each group automatically go forward)

If there is a tie in the number of points between 2 teams at the end of the group stage ...the tiebreaker...i.e the deciding factor is Goal Differential....i.e goals scored - goals allowed...
If the Thai team limits the US to 3 goals instead of 13 goals..this keeps their differential at  -3 going into their 2nd group game  ( there are only a total of 3 group games )

so the Coach's goal is to live to fight another day...
"A Wise Man Knows He Doesn’t Know Anything

Taleb promotes a focus on “anti-knowledge”, such as a focus on what we don’t know.

He says we should not try to predict them but adjust to them. And when we adjust to them, we can position ourselves not only to limit the downsides, but also to take advantage of possibly positive black swans, what he calls “serendipitous black swans”.


Offline bitstopia2049

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Re: To illustrate the absurdity of Black Swan Events
« Reply #3 on: June 17, 2019, 06:22:30 am »
Match day...

Casinos can't turn away from all of the betting money so they do the next best thing and each sportsbook limits their exposure....High rollers are limited to a maximum $1 million bet..

The Odds are  set at Pick "Em (50-50) which is normally easy money for the bookeis...but to compensate they also have offered the public 'Live (in game) wagers as well as other betting markets (total goals scored, half-time score, penalties given, etc.) so anything that happens in the game that significantly shifts the betting money can mean less profits or even losses for some sportsbooks..
Many gamblers were trying to win back some of the money they lost betting on the favorites....USA, France, Germany, etc.. who were so heavily favored in the first knock-out match the money lines were set as high as -40000 (i.e you have to bet $40k to win $100 ! )

The game gets under way ..
Momentum shifts back and team can establish control..
many opportunities missed by both teams....
surprisingly goalkeepers are however making miraculous saves...
both coaches are close to their breaking point....blood pressures are rising..

They know that each team has been riding lady luck against incredible odds...How else to explain how not just one but both teams won their three knock-out stage matches to reach the Finals..!    As the saying goes, "Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.."

So....The game is 0-0  after  90 mins and Extra Time...

And now the gambler's nightmare... the game goes to PK's...(penalty kicks)

This would normally favor the Jamaican team because they have a very good goalie...and on top of that the Thai keeper is their 2nd string goalie..(since their starter was still suffering from shell shock after the game against the US)

But.... the Jamaican goalie (Sydney Schneider) accidentally ate some of her teammates CBD infused cookies at half-time..(which is legally ok and not supposed to get you high)  but apparently this batch of cookies must have slipped through Quality Control and contained more than the allowed trace amount of  0.3% THC, and her particular body chemistry reacted like fireworks.
New CBD users are supposed  to "start low and go slow" so your body doesn't overreact...but Sydney ate the whole box !!

{Teammate later found out that her room mate had switched to a different brand..a brand that used full-spectrum hemp extracts (80+ cannabinoids) in all of its food, beverages, and snack  products
...because of something known as the “entourage effect,”}

Anyway by the time of the PK shootout...she felt like an octopus and was feeling supremely confident that she would block any & every shot that was heading her way..

Luckily for Syd she  guessed correctly in diving to her left on the first shot and her only save .. two of the next Thai players went wide left and wide right....another shot hit the crossbar...and one goal was scored ..
but she couldn't really remember what the overall score was at the time...

Jamaican PK sequence was no less adventurous.  Thai goalie also saved the first short...which made the 2nd kicker nervous and she missed her shot. wide left..
The 3rd kicker (Captain) finally scores a goal but then ...the 4th pk bounces off the right post...and so by the time the 5th player reached the penalty spot she was such a jumble of nerves..her legs were shaking...and so  she just decided to kick the ball as hard as she could towards the goal...but that resulted in the ball flying way over the top of the crossbar into the stands..

so the PK first round.. ended 1-1...

Sudden Death PK's

Surprisingly the sixth Jamaican player was cool as ice and simply took 3 steps back behind the ball...and when the ref blew the whistle calmly jogged to the ball an placed it in the upper right corner.of the goal..

and then on the Thai 6th shot... Sydney didn't... or couldn't... move her feet when the ball was kicked....she felt like she was wearing heavyweight diving boots similar to what Navy divers wear and the ball was aimed right at her.. she could see it coming like in slow motion...but she was helpless to move...and then before she could finish blinking her eyes or put up her hands..
it struck her right in the middle of her forehead...knocked her back into the net while the ball bounced off her and high into the air like a volley ball return.!
..While laying flat on her back inside the goal...she could hear her teammates screaming and yelling her name. running towards her getting closer and closer.. as well as the roar of the crowd ...the noise was deafening..

"I guess we won ", she thought to herself.. the "Reggae Girlz" had won..!

Yes.. we won.!!  we won !!  Syd, Syd, Syd ..we did it...Oh My God..!....Oh Shit, shit shit.. this is unbelievable ..Ahhhhhhhh!     it was the voice of her teammate.whose cookies she had eaten...

She just lay there as the pile of players grew and grew...for some reason should could barely feel their weight...all she could see was the clear blue sky above.... and just wanted more cookies...!

Meanwhile the Thai team were disappointed of course at their loss ...They came very close to winning....BUT they knew that just getting to the Finals was a feat they could never have imagined... and it would probably never happen again... The Bonus money obviously made them very happy!...Not only had they had made history..but done so in such an inconceivable fashion that surely a movie would be made about their fantastic journey...generating even more fame for them back home..

.[Some months later..]
There were rumors spreading on social media, but nothing could be proven...Curiously somehow the coach had his  house mortgage paid off and acquired a nice plot of land in the countryside...Everyone knew the coach to be a smart man and very realistic...but could it be true he had bets placed on the Jamaican team...?   No one will ever know...

The BLACK SWANS had arrived in force and........apparently taken care of everyone..
« Last Edit: June 17, 2019, 06:30:50 am by bitstopia2049 »

Offline Stout30

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Re: To illustrate the absurdity of Black Swan Events
« Reply #4 on: July 05, 2019, 10:35:33 am »
Yes..That method will be of little help..So yeah some alternatives should be thought of mybkexperience
« Last Edit: July 06, 2019, 07:10:27 am by Stout30 »

Offline bitstopia2049

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Re: To illustrate the absurdity of Black Swan Events
« Reply #5 on: July 06, 2019, 01:25:26 am »
Yes..That method will be of little help..So yeah some alternatives should be thought of

???    Could you elaborate?