Author Topic: To illustrate the absurdity of Black Swan Events  (Read 1515 times)

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Offline bitstopia2049

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To illustrate the absurdity of Black Swan Events
« on: June 15, 2019, 10:52:24 pm »
Read this thread first if you haven't already,  to understand the context..."In Search of the positive black swan"...

https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=28491.msg331407#msg331407   

      "Adjusting" to the Black Swan event.... { A bit of humorous fiction}

The women's soccer World Cup in France....On Tuesday (June 11)  Thailand lost their first group match to the US...13 - 0

I would call this a Black Swan event....positive for the US...negative for Thailand..

Initially I felt sorry for the Thai team.

but I thought to myself if I was the Thai coach  at half time ..with score being 3 - 0 and knowing that:

 (a)  the US would probably score at least the same or more goals in the second half &  the odds of winning (or a draw)  against the US was ABSOLUTELY ZERO !

(b)  that 16 (of 24 total) teams would advance to the next round, including the 4 best third place teams in their group  (Bonus money !!)
         and Thailand was at least ranked ahead of 6 other teams coming into the tournament
 
(c) Goal differential was the first tie breaker

[SCENE:  Team locker room...Everyone sitting down in a semi-circle..drinking water and eating bananas..]

Coach says, 

"Listen guys...Umm..sorry....girls.....I'll be blunt...We gonna' get our ass kicked today worse than the Brazilians did against Germany (7-1) ..if we don't do something different..

I can't lose a bucket load of bonus money.. I can't afford that...I gotta' house mortgage..

So... here's the deal...in the 2nd half...I want everybody to stand in front of our goal for 45 minutes ...If the referee complains..Dont worry..the rules don't say it's illegal...I looked it up...

We'll call it the Thai version of "parking the bus"... (Thank you Sweden)..
 
OK...you can all close your mouths now and wipe that shocked look off your face.... and thank me later in a couple of weeks when you are counting your bonus money..!.

OK...let's go... I'll take you all out to dinner as soon as the match is over.......I don't think the US team is going to be in any mood to shake hands or do any of  the usual end-of-match hugs and shit..

ไปกันเถอะ

Pị kạn t̄hexa     !!!!     ("LET'S GO"   in Thai)


                     Chapter 2... THE SUPER MEGA BLACK SWAN EVENT


2019     World Cup Final:       THAILAND vs  JAMAICA 

Las Vegas casinos and bookies REFUSE to make odds on the game and reject US$1 Billion in bets..!

stay tuned..

Offline bitcrab

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Re: To illustrate the absurdity of Black Swan Events
« Reply #1 on: June 16, 2019, 04:28:17 am »
interesting discussion, although I don't think the "parking the bus" method will help Thailand girls to defeat US team. :)

Offline bitstopia2049

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Re: To illustrate the absurdity of Black Swan Events
« Reply #2 on: June 16, 2019, 04:52:30 am »
interesting discussion, although I don't think the "parking the bus" method will help Thailand girls to defeat US team. :)

Well ..the idea is not to defeat the US....as the coach has already come to the conclusion the chance of that is ABSOLUTELY ZERO...

As referenced in the other thread.. the tactic would be to  "limit the downside."

if Thailand loses the game by 3-0  they still have chance to continue in the competition to the next round
because they can advance as one of the 4 teams who end up in third place in their Group...{the top 2 in each group automatically go forward)

If there is a tie in the number of points between 2 teams at the end of the group stage ...the tiebreaker...i.e the deciding factor is Goal Differential....i.e goals scored - goals allowed...
If the Thai team limits the US to 3 goals instead of 13 goals..this keeps their differential at  -3 going into their 2nd group game  ( there are only a total of 3 group games )

so the Coach's goal is to live to fight another day...

https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=28491.msg331407#msg331407
"A Wise Man Knows He Doesn’t Know Anything

Taleb promotes a focus on “anti-knowledge”, such as a focus on what we don’t know.

He says we should not try to predict them but adjust to them. And when we adjust to them, we can position ourselves not only to limit the downsides, but also to take advantage of possibly positive black swans, what he calls “serendipitous black swans”.

         

Offline bitstopia2049

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Re: To illustrate the absurdity of Black Swan Events
« Reply #3 on: June 17, 2019, 06:22:30 am »
Match day...

Casinos can't turn away from all of the betting money so they do the next best thing and each sportsbook limits their exposure....High rollers are limited to a maximum $1 million bet..

The Odds are  set at Pick "Em (50-50) which is normally easy money for the bookeis...but to compensate they also have offered the public 'Live (in game) wagers as well as other betting markets (total goals scored, half-time score, penalties given, etc.) so anything that happens in the game that significantly shifts the betting money can mean less profits or even losses for some sportsbooks..
Many gamblers were trying to win back some of the money they lost betting on the favorites....USA, France, Germany, etc.. who were so heavily favored in the first knock-out match the money lines were set as high as -40000 (i.e you have to bet $40k to win $100 ! )

The game gets under way ..
Momentum shifts back and forth...no team can establish control..
many opportunities missed by both teams....
surprisingly goalkeepers are however making miraculous saves...
both coaches are close to their breaking point....blood pressures are rising..

They know that each team has been riding lady luck against incredible odds...How else to explain how not just one but both teams won their three knock-out stage matches to reach the Finals..!    As the saying goes, "Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.."

So....The game is 0-0  after  90 mins and Extra Time...

And now the gambler's nightmare... the game goes to PK's...(penalty kicks)

This would normally favor the Jamaican team because they have a very good goalie...and on top of that the Thai keeper is their 2nd string goalie..(since their starter was still suffering from shell shock after the game against the US)

But.... the Jamaican goalie (Sydney Schneider) accidentally ate some of her teammates CBD infused cookies at half-time..(which is legally ok and not supposed to get you high)  but apparently this batch of cookies must have slipped through Quality Control and contained more than the allowed trace amount of  0.3% THC, and her particular body chemistry reacted like fireworks.
New CBD users are supposed  to "start low and go slow" so your body doesn't overreact...but Sydney ate the whole box !!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sydney_Schneider#/media/File:Sydney_Schneider.jpg

{Teammate later found out that her room mate had switched to a different brand..a brand that used full-spectrum hemp extracts (80+ cannabinoids) in all of its food, beverages, and snack  products
...because of something known as the “entourage effect,”}

Anyway by the time of the PK shootout...she felt like an octopus and was feeling supremely confident that she would block any & every shot that was heading her way..

Luckily for Syd she  guessed correctly in diving to her left on the first shot and her only save .. two of the next Thai players went wide left and wide right....another shot hit the crossbar...and one goal was scored ..
but she couldn't really remember what the overall score was at the time...

Jamaican PK sequence was no less adventurous.  Thai goalie also saved the first short...which made the 2nd kicker nervous and she missed her shot. wide left..
The 3rd kicker (Captain) finally scores a goal but then ...the 4th pk bounces off the right post...and so by the time the 5th player reached the penalty spot she was such a jumble of nerves..her legs were shaking...and so  she just decided to kick the ball as hard as she could towards the goal...but that resulted in the ball flying way over the top of the crossbar into the stands..

so the PK first round.. ended 1-1...

Sudden Death PK's

Surprisingly the sixth Jamaican player was cool as ice and simply took 3 steps back behind the ball...and when the ref blew the whistle calmly jogged to the ball an placed it in the upper right corner.of the goal..

and then on the Thai 6th shot... Sydney didn't... or couldn't... move her feet when the ball was kicked....she felt like she was wearing heavyweight diving boots similar to what Navy divers wear and the ball was aimed right at her.. she could see it coming like in slow motion...but she was helpless to move...and then before she could finish blinking her eyes or put up her hands..
it struck her right in the middle of her forehead...knocked her back into the net while the ball bounced off her and high into the air like a volley ball return.!
..
..While laying flat on her back inside the goal...she could hear her teammates screaming and yelling her name. running towards her getting closer and closer.. as well as the roar of the crowd ...the noise was deafening..

"I guess we won ", she thought to herself.. the "Reggae Girlz" had won..!

Yes.. we won.!!  we won !!  Syd, Syd, Syd ..we did it...Oh My God..!....Oh Shit, shit shit.. this is unbelievable ..Ahhhhhhhh!     it was the voice of her teammate.whose cookies she had eaten...

She just lay there as the pile of players grew and grew...for some reason should could barely feel their weight...all she could see was the clear blue sky above.... and just wanted more cookies...!

Meanwhile the Thai team were disappointed of course at their loss ...They came very close to winning....BUT they knew that just getting to the Finals was a feat they could never have imagined... and it would probably never happen again... The Bonus money obviously made them very happy!...Not only had they had made history..but done so in such an inconceivable fashion that surely a movie would be made about their fantastic journey...generating even more fame for them back home..


.[Some months later..]
There were rumors spreading on social media, but nothing could be proven...Curiously somehow the coach had his  house mortgage paid off and acquired a nice plot of land in the countryside...Everyone knew the coach to be a smart man and very realistic...but could it be true he had bets placed on the Jamaican team...?   No one will ever know...

The BLACK SWANS had arrived in force and........apparently taken care of everyone..
« Last Edit: June 17, 2019, 06:30:50 am by bitstopia2049 »

Offline Stout30

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Re: To illustrate the absurdity of Black Swan Events
« Reply #4 on: July 05, 2019, 10:35:33 am »
Yes..That method will be of little help..So yeah some alternatives should be thought of mybkexperience
« Last Edit: July 06, 2019, 07:10:27 am by Stout30 »

Offline bitstopia2049

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Re: To illustrate the absurdity of Black Swan Events
« Reply #5 on: July 06, 2019, 01:25:26 am »
Yes..That method will be of little help..So yeah some alternatives should be thought of

???    Could you elaborate?

Offline bitstopia2049

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Re: To illustrate the absurdity of Black Swan Events
« Reply #6 on: July 27, 2019, 08:58:48 pm »
Yes..That method will be of little help..So yeah some alternatives should be thought of mybkexperience

https://cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-soccer-the-rise-of-cryptocurrency-sponsorships-and-partnerships/

BitShares could have probably acquired a Womens World Cup sponsorship package very cheaply.. compared to the Mens competition

Maybe a BTS Marketing worker should consider sponorship/partnership with women's soccer clubs in influential markets around the world...it would be substantially cheaper than mens leagues....

Smaller audience...yes....BUT a large enough market niche to springboard out of the Bear...and....Bitshares may finally begin to enter the consciousness of the female demographic (and some men too..)  which is smart if you want to increase demand for Smartcoins., etc.. the other spinoff effects will follow...BTS price increase,etc..  Moreover it might become the favorite crypto of a young, growing  and influential demographic over the longer term...just like how the DOGECOIN community fiercely supports its currency...except BTS has more practical and utility value but needs to be publicized..

https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=27733.msg332390#msg332390                 ( Public Goods)

I'm wary that just sponsoring conferences will not be enough to uplift  BitShares from where it currently is given the competiton for consumer attention,  increasing number of DEX's, ...etc.

If BTS is in demand by "the people".and the market cap is rising ..the investor class will see the potential and... all the issues re:  MCR, MSSR, TCR, liquidity,  etc. will be easier to or easily solved.
(Again I feel that BTS should at the very least put itself in a position to benefit from a positive Black Swan.

...You can't win the race if you're not even in the stadium)

Offline ljk424

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Re: To illustrate the absurdity of Black Swan Events
« Reply #7 on: July 28, 2019, 12:33:20 am »
Yes..That method will be of little help..So yeah some alternatives should be thought of mybkexperience

https://cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-soccer-the-rise-of-cryptocurrency-sponsorships-and-partnerships/

BitShares could have probably acquired a Womens World Cup sponsorship package very cheaply.. compared to the Mens competition

Maybe a BTS Marketing worker should consider sponorship/partnership with women's soccer clubs in influential markets around the world...it would be substantially cheaper than mens leagues....

Smaller audience...yes....BUT a large enough market niche to springboard out of the Bear...and....Bitshares may finally begin to enter the consciousness of the female demographic (and some men too..)  which is smart if you want to increase demand for Smartcoins., etc.. the other spinoff effects will follow...BTS price increase,etc..  Moreover it might become the favorite crypto of a young, growing  and influential demographic over the longer term...just like how the DOGECOIN community fiercely supports its currency...except BTS has more practical and utility value but needs to be publicized..

https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=27733.msg332390#msg332390                 ( Public Goods)

I'm wary that just sponsoring conferences will not be enough to uplift  BitShares from where it currently is given the competiton for consumer attention,  increasing number of DEX's, ...etc.

If BTS is in demand by "the people".and the market cap is rising ..the investor class will see the potential and... all the issues re:  MCR, MSSR, TCR, liquidity,  etc. will be easier to or easily solved.
(Again I feel that BTS should at the very least put itself in a position to benefit from a positive Black Swan.

...You can't win the race if you're not even in the stadium)
support

Offline bitstopia2049

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Re: To illustrate the absurdity of Black Swan Events
« Reply #8 on: July 30, 2019, 01:05:04 am »

support
[/quote]

THANKS FOR TAKING THE TIME TO REPLY !
===================================================================================

https://www.womenssoccerunited.com/world-cup-2019-attendances/

FIFA Women’s World Cup 2019 Attendances.
It has been another record-breaking World Cup in terms of attendances and broadcast figures as the game continues to grow on a global level.

World Cup 2019 attendance overview

Opening match attendance: France 4 – 0 Korea Republic – 45,261
Highest attendance of the tournament: The Final: USA 2-0 Netherlands – 57,900
Lowest attendance of the tournament: Group stage:Cameroon 2-1 New Zealand – 8,009
Highest attendance of the group stage: USA 3 – 0 Chile – 45,594
Total tournament attendance: 1,131,762

=========================

https://www.womenssoccerunited.com/leading-goalscorers-2018-asian-games-womens-football/
Could BiSshares sponsor one of these athlete's local club team ?


https://www.womenssoccerunited.com/groups/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_AFC_Women%27s_Olympic_Qualifying_Tournament

2020 AFC Women's Olympic Qualifying Tournament
 3rd Round Qualified teams

    Australia,  China PR, Chinese Taipei, Myanmar
     North Korea, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam

The third round is scheduled for January or February 2020.  &  The final round (4 teams)  is scheduled for March 2020. 

2 of the 8 teams will qualify for the Olympics, along with the host Japan to represent Asia.

=====

By BTS supporting / sponsoring now in the period leading up to the Olympics, it will likely engender a brand loyalty and therefore increased [organically grown] exposure during the tournament via social media, word of mouth and grassroots promotion.

Another important point is this demographic is not negatively predisposed towards BitShares, like it is, apparently, across the broader crypto/fintech/trader community, according to this..

 https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=28494.msg331280#msg331280
{was there ever any real survery, polling, or other data to substantiate this?}

So this would also be a chance to create a positive brand impression out of the gate  while not having to overcome any built-in bias present in e.g. crypto conference attendees 

Customer acquisition is obviously easier to attempt on a level field versus starting at the bottom of a hill  ---   you know the old saying,  "First impressions are important, you only make one of them! "...but the goal here is twofold for BitShares  i.e. to also make a Lasting impression... a very good one..

BTS can be marketed and perceived as the Cryptosphere's  most prominent supporter of Women's soccer (or sports in general) .....a successful global branding campaign like that could arguably grow the market cap by a Billion $ or more by the time of the Olympics.  { reaching a steady and stable price ..BTS ~ US$0.45+}
(Not to mention if by fortune a very hi profile female (or male) athlete becomes enamored by BTS by themselves...( a classic +ve Black Swan)
 
Maybe BTS could sponsor one or two teams per region in each round?  Buy Advertising time on the broadcasts or place banners on the relevant websites in local languages?   Partner with local sponsors/supermarkets that will accept bitCNY, bitUSD, bitKRW,bitEUR, bitYEN, bitGBP etc..?    How much would it cost to manufacture a 100k T-Shirts, pens, keychains, etc with the BitShares logo?   Would the manufacturer accept bitCNY, bitXX, if in return guaranteed future business or backing by a Whale?

or Sponsor Matches -  What would it cost  to brand with the BitShares logo custom small USB flash drives ?  The players and coaches of the winning team each gets a flash drive and the losers get T-Shirts.  That has practical and long term impression impact..  Even if an indivdual can't use the flash drive I'm sure they will find a family member, classmate, friend , etc to give or sell it to...Doesn't matter, it's all about impressions..   

And the Easter Egg is that each flash drive could have an HTML document linked to https://news.bitshares.org and/or  maybe a  BTS.scr file with animated screensaver.
YouTube in English and/ or  a video link in local language showing how to sign up for a BitShares web wallet -- linked to a specially funded faucet with 3 BTS (or whatever is appropriate))
with links to other text,docs, slides or tutorials, etc., with no immediate need for WiFi ..

And yes btw..if the game is a draw everyone gets a T-Shirt -  gives more incentive to win!....Of course it would make sense to sponsor a match in which there is great interest e.g. among the best teams, rivals or that have a large following of fans..
(This is just one example... the prizes don't have to be big...Most of these teams do not have big operating budgets even for equipment, outfits etc.).

What's the worst that could happen...? 
Does BTS have any MAJOR marketing initiatives planned for the rest of the summer, autumn, winter 2019-20? 

Doing nothing ..guarantees nothing...(or worse)......Doing something....at the very least will increase BTS awareness among an unbiased, social media influencer, demographic that is loyal to women's soccer/footall/sports etc. and the companies that support them..  Who knows... maybe it will cultivate a global audience of new crypto-enthusiasts.. 

BitShares is in a lull right now...and ordinary measures will not suffice...it needs to grow advocates aroud the world..

 Different industry same issue                  https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/19/07/14111890/analysts-athletic-brands-arent-making-enough-products-for-women

=====================================

A BitSpark -  opportunity.. -   

A jumpstart in Europe for the always anemic BitEUR...?

https://www.womenssoccerunited.com/uwcl-qualifying-draw-2020/

A record 62 teams will take part in the 2019/20 UEFA Women’s Champions League with 40 teams competing in the qualifying round.

The UEFA Women’s Champions League 2019/20 Qualifying Round will take place 7 to 13 August.
Round of 32/16:  Sept./ Oct. 2019;  Qtr and Semis in March / April 2020
 
The  Final -- Viola Park, Vienna: 24 May 2020

  {No  one attending this event  has ever heard of BitShares I bet..https://www.womenssoccerunited.com/norways-valerenga-ladies-play-manchester-united-women-wednesday-31st-july/ 

--   Who knows...any BTS awareness might spillover to the multi-million dollar men's team players.

How did DOGECOIN outperform BitShares these past years....?      Answer:  Brand Loyalty

=============================


Offline bitstopia2049

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Re: To illustrate the absurdity of Black Swan Events
« Reply #9 on: August 02, 2019, 02:56:49 am »
https://cointelegraph.com/news/everton-football-club-signs-etoro-as-official-online-trading-partner

Everton Football Club Signs EToro as Official Online Trading Partner


[excerpt]

Everton Football Club of the British Premier League has signed a deal with the crypto-inclusive investment and trading platform eToro. Everton shared news of the partnership in an official announcement on Aug. 1.

As per the report, eToro will now be Everton’s “Official Online Trading Partner”, which will offer advertising for the platform via its marketing assets and matches at home stadium Goodison Park.

...
In April, eToro also launched a cryptocurrency exchange for professional traders called eToroX, which is purportedly fully regulated. The exchange supports trading for Bitcoin (BTC), Ether

(ETH), XRP, Dash (DASH), Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Litecoin (LTC). The new exchange has also launched eight stablecoins backed by eight corresponding national fiat currencies.


Other large-name soccer teams have partnered with cryptocurrency- and blockchain-related organizations over the past year, including Brazilian premier league soccer club Atletico Mineiro,

English Premier League team West Ham United and French soccer club Paris Saint-Germain.

{Crystal Palace FC of the #EPL also}


Offline abit

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Offline bitstopia2049

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Re: To illustrate the absurdity of Black Swan Events
« Reply #12 on: August 03, 2019, 07:10:23 pm »
https://www.howtotoken.com/explained/how-marketing-campaigns-develop-into-global-trends/
Thanks for the link.
IMHO this should be a dedicated thread.


True, it can't hurt ... Because events like the World Cup & Olympics occur only once every 4 years..so not only is it an important, infrequent, GLOBAL branding opportunity but in particular a chance for BitShares to cultivate a brand loyalty within a market segment that has not prejudged BTS..

..and moreover is essentially being ignored, broadly speaking, by the cryptoshphere at the moment...(but not forever)..

Maybe the BTS marketing team will see some merit in this thread..

Offline bitstopia2049

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Re: To illustrate the absurdity of Black Swan Events
« Reply #13 on: August 03, 2019, 07:21:53 pm »
https://www.howtotoken.com/explained/how-marketing-campaigns-develop-into-global-trends/
Thanks for the link.
IMHO this should be a dedicated thread.

It reminded me..

Half the world is female --  BTS needs a  different marketing "face or faces" in each region/country

How much was this woman worth to the growth of DASH marketcap...  {currently  #15  965.3 mlllion   (BTS  #56   122.8 million)
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCqNCLd2r19wpWWQE6yDLOOQ/videos

Her and Fabian talking about Bitshares  basics..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eV0le2fBZpQ


If you notice the most highly watched videos are her "How to...."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCFP0p7mOOo    64k

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MoJOHxQ7Pd4    44k

etc..,,

but her biggest hit was ...HOW TO EARN $$$   

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UY0OXqo4xeg     213k

People are always hungry to learn how to make a living..

Offline Huisma02

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Re: To illustrate the absurdity of Black Swan Events
« Reply #14 on: August 16, 2019, 09:35:31 am »
https://www.howtotoken.com/explained/how-marketing-campaigns-develop-into-global-trends/
Thanks for the link.
IMHO this should be a dedicated thread.

It reminded me..

Half the world is female --  BTS needs a  different marketing "face or faces" in each region/country

How much was this woman worth to the growth of DASH marketcap...  {currently  #15  965.3 mlllion   (BTS  #56   122.8 million)
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCqNCLd2r19wpWWQE6yDLOOQ/videos

Her and Fabian talking about Bitshares  basics..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eV0le2fBZpQ


If you notice the most highly watched videos are her "How to...."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCFP0p7mOOo    64k

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MoJOHxQ7Pd4    44k

etc..,,

but her biggest hit was ...HOW TO EARN $$$   

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UY0OXqo4xeg     213k

People are always hungry to learn how to make a living..

The Odds are  set at Pick "Em (50-50) which is normally easy money for the bookeis...but to compensate they also have offered the public 'Live (in game) wagers as well as other betting markets (total goals scored, half-time score, penalties given, etc.) so anything that happens in the game that significantly shifts the betting money can mean less profits or even losses for some sportsbooks..
Many gamblers were trying to win back some of the money they lost betting on the favorites....USA, France, Germany, etc.. who were so heavily favored in the first knock-out match the money lines were set as high as -40000 (i.e you have to bet $40k to win $100 ! )