Author Topic: 111* days estimated for Difficulty to retarget. Could this kill PTS?  (Read 94172 times)

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Offline toast

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Re: 42 days estimated for Difficulty to retarget. Could this kill PTS?
« Reply #38 on: March 11, 2014, 03:29:34 am »
Let's keep it simple, tell me which of these you disagree with:

1) The only way for the price to go up is for people to buy
2) The only way for the price to go down is for people to sell
3) Miners sell more than they buy
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Offline toast

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Re: 42 days estimated for Difficulty to retarget. Could this kill PTS?
« Reply #37 on: March 11, 2014, 03:26:08 am »
Miners are going to start mining easier or more profitable coins which will likely cause the PTS price to decline further

That's backwards though, miners by necessity dump their coins to cover their costs so if there are fewer miners then there's less downwards pressure on the price. If everyone who is in it for mining profit leaves then the only people left mining are people running nodes for the sake of keeping PTS up who will not dump their coins. Why do people think more miners causes a higher price? Am I missing something?

You have it perfectly straight toast....  claiming miners increase price is like claiming wet sidewalks cause rain.

So you are saying more miners cause lower prices then? Tell that to Bitcoin.

It doesn't guarantee the price will be lower, it just puts downward pressure on the price... bitcoin's price has gone up because of appreciation. I really don't know where the miscommunication is. Miners mine so they can sell. Selling pushes the price down. Miners not mining causes fewer people to be selling.

Quote
Not sure you thought that one through.


Miners are going to start mining easier or more profitable coins which will likely cause the PTS price to decline further

That's backwards though, miners by necessity dump their coins to cover their costs so if there are fewer miners then there's less downwards pressure on the price. If everyone who is in it for mining profit leaves then the only people left mining are people running nodes for the sake of keeping PTS up who will not dump their coins. Why do people think more miners causes a higher price? Am I missing something?

How can miners mine for profit if Difficulty is so high they can't mine a profitable amount in a profitable time and confirmations and transactions take days?

Miners are mining at the same difficulty as was when the price was 2.5x today's price, it is not profitable, so they will quit and sell.

Wouldn't they sell when it is profitable, and stop mining (and thus having anything to sell) when it stops being profitable? How do miners cause the price to go UP? Buying is the only way to push the price up. When do miners buy?

I'm extremely confused right now, either I'm failing basic microeconomics or I'm missing some huge part of the picture.

Quote
Your guys offhand remarks make me wonder if there is an ulterior motive for not trying to correct this. As suggested by user Schwede65 and FreeTrade, implement the Kimoto gravity well or something. Can that even be done at this point? If not, why?

I think the "is what it is" attitude is very concerning given your position.

Your coin has the potential to dry up. I don't know for sure, but the potential is there and if there is something you can do, you probably should.

The problem is everything to do with confirmation times, I don't think either of those guys were concerned with the price. If you convince people this is a positive feedback loop that pushes the price downwards towards 0 then everyone will take you seriously. I think you're just mixing up the cause and effect though.
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Offline NewMine

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Re: 42 days estimated for Difficulty to retarget. Could this kill PTS?
« Reply #36 on: March 11, 2014, 03:04:08 am »
Miners are going to start mining easier or more profitable coins which will likely cause the PTS price to decline further

That's backwards though, miners by necessity dump their coins to cover their costs so if there are fewer miners then there's less downwards pressure on the price. If everyone who is in it for mining profit leaves then the only people left mining are people running nodes for the sake of keeping PTS up who will not dump their coins. Why do people think more miners causes a higher price? Am I missing something?

You have it perfectly straight toast....  claiming miners increase price is like claiming wet sidewalks cause rain.

So you are saying more miners cause lower prices then? Tell that to Bitcoin.

Not sure you thought that one through.


Miners are going to start mining easier or more profitable coins which will likely cause the PTS price to decline further

That's backwards though, miners by necessity dump their coins to cover their costs so if there are fewer miners then there's less downwards pressure on the price. If everyone who is in it for mining profit leaves then the only people left mining are people running nodes for the sake of keeping PTS up who will not dump their coins. Why do people think more miners causes a higher price? Am I missing something?

How can miners mine for profit if Difficulty is so high they can't mine a profitable amount in a profitable time and confirmations and transactions take days?

Miners are mining at the same difficulty as was when the price was 2.5x today's price, it is not profitable, so they will quit and sell.

Your guys offhand remarks make me wonder if there is an ulterior motive for not trying to correct this. As suggested by user Schwede65 and FreeTrade, implement the Kimoto gravity well or something. Can that even be done at this point? If not, why?

I think the "is what it is" attitude is very concerning given your position.

Your coin has the potential to dry up. I don't know for sure, but the potential is there and if there is something you can do, you probably should.

Offline bytemaster

Re: 42 days estimated for Difficulty to retarget. Could this kill PTS?
« Reply #35 on: March 11, 2014, 01:36:53 am »
Miners are going to start mining easier or more profitable coins which will likely cause the PTS price to decline further

That's backwards though, miners by necessity dump their coins to cover their costs so if there are fewer miners then there's less downwards pressure on the price. If everyone who is in it for mining profit leaves then the only people left mining are people running nodes for the sake of keeping PTS up who will not dump their coins. Why do people think more miners causes a higher price? Am I missing something?

You have it perfectly straight toast....  claiming miners increase price is like claiming wet sidewalks cause rain.
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Offline toast

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Re: 42 days estimated for Difficulty to retarget. Could this kill PTS?
« Reply #34 on: March 11, 2014, 01:34:15 am »
Miners are going to start mining easier or more profitable coins which will likely cause the PTS price to decline further

That's backwards though, miners by necessity dump their coins to cover their costs so if there are fewer miners then there's less downwards pressure on the price. If everyone who is in it for mining profit leaves then the only people left mining are people running nodes for the sake of keeping PTS up who will not dump their coins. Why do people think more miners causes a higher price? Am I missing something?
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Offline NewMine

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Re: 42 days estimated for Difficulty to retarget. Could this kill PTS?
« Reply #33 on: March 11, 2014, 01:15:21 am »
Guys, why do we care about this at all? Just because confirmation times are slower or what? Decreased mining interest is totally unrelated to interest in PTS overall, except that higher prices means it's more attractive to miners (NOT the other way around!)

I am pretty sure Invictus has a pretty large amount of PTS and if they want to protect that worth then something should be done. Miners are going to start mining easier or more profitable coins which will likely cause the PTS price to decline further which will likely cause more miners to leave which will cause the price to fall further and so on. Will it happen over night? Of course not. But perhaps over a month or two as less and less blocks are found and the re-target date remains at a constant 40 days away.

I posted this thread one week ago. Here are the estimates today:

Time to retarget: 42d 15:32:38 (2014-04-23 01:44:47 UTC+9)

That is the same number of days and we have solved 460 blocks since.

Offline toast

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Re: 42 days estimated for Difficulty to retarget. Could this kill PTS?
« Reply #32 on: March 10, 2014, 04:03:00 pm »
Guys, why do we care about this at all? Just because confirmation times are slower or what? Decreased mining interest is totally unrelated to interest in PTS overall, except that higher prices means it's more attractive to miners (NOT the other way around!)
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Offline kickky

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Re: 42 days estimated for Difficulty to retarget. Could this kill PTS?
« Reply #31 on: March 10, 2014, 03:41:53 pm »
Unfortunately, there is nothing we could do to keep miners on board after a 60% price drop because miners are purchasing PTS just like everyone else, they just pay with electricity.    The only thing we could do is switch PTS to a proof-of-stake coin. 

We could try to 'talk up miners', but miners are economic actors who see that it is cheaper to get PTS by trading than mining and thus make different economic choices.

If the difficulty becomes a long term problem we can take measures to increase the transaction rate, but short of increasing voluntary transaction fees in an attempt to motivate additional miners there is nothing we could do.   It would be like asking us to stop the price of PTS from falling after the BTS-X snapshot.

Actually, Dan, I think you can draw a lot of miners back to mine if you offering a reward or bonus. Like rewarding AGS or PTS, or even BTS at a percentage rate. I think a 5 percentage BTS reward will draw at least improve at least 30% mining speed. and as a result, this will cut the 40 days to 15 days, mayby.
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Offline FreeTrade

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Re: 42 days estimated for Difficulty to retarget. Could this kill PTS?
« Reply #30 on: March 10, 2014, 02:39:03 pm »
but the PTS-difficulty-retarget-block-time is implemented like a dinosaur-thing from the good old times...
why not having the fine Kimoto Gravity Well / every block a fresh difficulty?

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Offline barwizi

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Re: 42 days estimated for Difficulty to retarget. Could this kill PTS?
« Reply #29 on: March 10, 2014, 09:45:54 am »
Unfortunately, there is nothing we could do to keep miners on board after a 60% price drop because miners are purchasing PTS just like everyone else, they just pay with electricity.    The only thing we could do is switch PTS to a proof-of-stake coin. 

We could try to 'talk up miners', but miners are economic actors who see that it is cheaper to get PTS by trading than mining and thus make different economic choices.

If the difficulty becomes a long term problem we can take measures to increase the transaction rate, but short of increasing voluntary transaction fees in an attempt to motivate additional miners there is nothing we could do.   It would be like asking us to stop the price of PTS from falling after the BTS-X snapshot.
but the PTS-difficulty-retarget-block-time is implemented like a dinosaur-thing from the good old times...
why not having the fine Kimoto Gravity Well / every block a fresh difficulty?

good idea, they don't seem in a rush to fix the issue though.
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Offline Schwede65

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Re: 42 days estimated for Difficulty to retarget. Could this kill PTS?
« Reply #28 on: March 10, 2014, 09:14:28 am »
Unfortunately, there is nothing we could do to keep miners on board after a 60% price drop because miners are purchasing PTS just like everyone else, they just pay with electricity.    The only thing we could do is switch PTS to a proof-of-stake coin. 

We could try to 'talk up miners', but miners are economic actors who see that it is cheaper to get PTS by trading than mining and thus make different economic choices.

If the difficulty becomes a long term problem we can take measures to increase the transaction rate, but short of increasing voluntary transaction fees in an attempt to motivate additional miners there is nothing we could do.   It would be like asking us to stop the price of PTS from falling after the BTS-X snapshot.
but the PTS-difficulty-retarget-block-time is implemented like a dinosaur-thing from the good old times...
why not having the fine Kimoto Gravity Well / every block a fresh difficulty?

Offline NewMine

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It's slowing down even worse and price seems to follow
« Reply #27 on: March 09, 2014, 11:32:16 pm »

Blocks to retarget: 2090
Measured: 48.16%
Estimated difficulty: 0.01713413 (47.29%)
Time to retarget: 48d 02:36:32 (2014-04-27 10:52:48 UTC+9)

Network hashing speed:
Last 100 blocks: 5,742,726.69 cpm ETA: 39d 07:48:53
Last  50 blocks: 4,694,292.14 cpm ETA: 48d 02:36:32
Last  15 blocks: 4,821,654.15 cpm ETA: 46d 20:06:37


It's taken over 6 days to get through 410 blocks and it's getting worse. Now it's 48 days estimated to get through 20% less blocks.

Don't think I'm going to mine this thing anymore . I like the insurance DAC idea, not so much the others, but I can mine a much more profitable coin and just buy PTS if I am so inclined to.  I suspect as mining dries up price will dwindle and at that point it may be a better investment.

I got my BTS-X shares locked in, so I can't complain too much.   :)

Offline barwizi

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Re: 42 days estimated for Difficulty to retarget. Could this kill PTS?
« Reply #26 on: March 09, 2014, 11:48:41 am »
Unfortunately, there is nothing we could do to keep miners on board after a 60% price drop because miners are purchasing PTS just like everyone else, they just pay with electricity.    The only thing we could do is switch PTS to a proof-of-stake coin. 

We could try to 'talk up miners', but miners are economic actors who see that it is cheaper to get PTS by trading than mining and thus make different economic choices.

If the difficulty becomes a long term problem we can take measures to increase the transaction rate, but short of increasing voluntary transaction fees in an attempt to motivate additional miners there is nothing we could do.   It would be like asking us to stop the price of PTS from falling after the BTS-X snapshot.

Push the price up with more forks from PTS.

What makes your fork valuable? How will it increase the price of PTS? What will it do better? It must not be made by invictus btw.
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Offline 8bit

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Re: 42 days estimated for Difficulty to retarget. Could this kill PTS?
« Reply #25 on: March 09, 2014, 06:48:13 am »
Unfortunately, there is nothing we could do to keep miners on board after a 60% price drop because miners are purchasing PTS just like everyone else, they just pay with electricity.    The only thing we could do is switch PTS to a proof-of-stake coin. 

We could try to 'talk up miners', but miners are economic actors who see that it is cheaper to get PTS by trading than mining and thus make different economic choices.

If the difficulty becomes a long term problem we can take measures to increase the transaction rate, but short of increasing voluntary transaction fees in an attempt to motivate additional miners there is nothing we could do.   It would be like asking us to stop the price of PTS from falling after the BTS-X snapshot.

Push the price up with more forks from PTS.
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Offline zvs

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Re: 42 days estimated for Difficulty to retarget. Could this kill PTS?
« Reply #24 on: March 08, 2014, 04:24:12 pm »
I'm sorry you lost money, BTS-x and or potential gains, but it was pretty publicized when the snapshot was going to happen and for people to take all funds out of he exchanges. Multiple posts on the sub reddits and many posts here warned users of what they should do. I too don't have 100's of BTC to throw around at these speculative plays, so in that regard I feel you and hope you make money back elsewhere.
well, I didn't want to remove my PTS from the exchanges, I wanted to sell it.  I was thinking there might be a jump on the 28th, so I was holding most of mine still.  i was wrong and there wasn't a jump in price, but I still would have ended up selling at .023 or so on cryptsy.

the problem is that I transferred them to an exchange that locked its wallet over 12 hrs early.  i knew it was going to be locked (it said something in regard to that, no specific time).  I didn't expect it to be locked until, well, an hour or two before midnight GMT... hence, screwed. 

It's still locked now, & the price continues to drop.  I could have sold a couple days ago at .012.
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