Author Topic: Initial price for a XTS  (Read 27513 times)

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Offline mf-tzo

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I am not ready to lock in any of my losses …
As negotiation go, I will use the same approach as you - I can start considering again at:
- Whatever 10K USD buys @ 45 mil market cap.

Right...Obviously troll and not to take you seriously anymore...

Starting with $2 - $15mil. We offer $20 mil you reject. I lower a bit to $17 mil and you go to $45 mil...
whatever dude...

But since you are not serious for your bets the least you can do is to stop spread FUD about max $15 mil market cap

The offer of $17 mil is still on the table and actually is on the table for everyone that has voted that it will be between $10-$20 mil!

Offline liondani

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Hope when it really starts, at least we,
the community members,
will not get ... trolls   :)


Offline Simeon II

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First – The bet is of the table now! Let that be clear.

I was trying to make several points .
It is one thing to make estimations, it is totally deferent if you have to put your money where your mouth is (i.e. buy/sell at those prices). Do not take it personally, it is human nature.


I am not ready to lock in any of my losses …
As negotiation go, I will use the same approach as you - I can start considering again at:
- Whatever 10K USD buys @ 45 mil market cap.

As far as putting my money where my mouth is.
 
I hope you agree that there is a big difference between being able to buy on the market when the product is actually released and you have all the information about volume, depth & can gauge the interest/How people are receiving it? To make a deal before the market is a different proposition.

I know your bet is off the table. The best bet I can commit to now and offer is the following -

(Unfortunately, I cannot do anywhere close to your 1%.) But I am happy to buy $10 000 worth of XT now at a 20 million CAP now. So 0.05 % of the total shares,

The offer is available for next 24 hours, with the conditions

1. XTS is not trade-able on the market in the next 24 hours. 
2. Someone at I3 needs to handle the escrow and guarantee that I wll get 0.05% of the XTS supply for my $10 000.

I'm sure they are really busy, but maybe it will be good for publicity.
So you/someone else would just need to convince them to guarantee your side if you were interested in the bet.

I can transfer the BTC equivalent to I3 as soon as those conditions are met. (So there is nothing for them to guarantee from my side, only that they are willing to be escrow and to confirm that they've received my funds.)

I am not ready to lock in any of my losses …

As negotiation go, I will use your approach and counter-offer:
- Whatever 10K USD buys @ 45 mil market cap.

Or

You can use my approach and offer something creative that that covers my losses, if BTS is at my prediction level at launch. Giving me the chance to go from 15 mil to 20 mil (at which level I will still be getting only 66% for a small fraction of my total position) just does not cut it.
« Last Edit: July 03, 2014, 05:46:36 pm by Simeon II »

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so all in all we agree that irrespective of no of coins the total market cap should be $40 - $75 mil upon launching...I hope that we are all on the same page here to believe that it should be at least $100 mil by the end of the year especially if Bitcoin gets pumped

I obviously disagree - 2 to 15 Mil is my prediction.

Where is your valuation coming from? How can it be valued at less than pts? you do realize this is the protodac for bitshares x? i wouldn't be supprised if the market cap started at $100 mil. Unless ppl are absolutely desperate for money right now I don't see them selling their shares at such low prices. You have to be an idiot

Offline mf-tzo

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so all in all we agree that irrespective of no of coins the total market cap should be $40 - $75 mil upon launching...I hope that we are all on the same page here to believe that it should be at least $100 mil by the end of the year especially if Bitcoin gets pumped

I obviously disagree - 2 to 15 Mil is my prediction.

How are we cutting from your prediction of $30 mil to $20 mil? You said $2mil - $15 mil. So we are offering 10 times more than your lowest estimate...

Don't make me offer you what it should have been fair for your estimations that is half of $2 - $15 mil i.e. $9mil...

And actually since you want some negotiations this is my new proposal:

$2,500 @ $17 mil for 0.015% of all shares which is still above your expectations is the new offer which is still above your maximum expectations of $15 mil.

What do you say? Will you put your money where your mouth is?  ;)







Offline Empirical1

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I personally see the initial price/capitalization at a range of 2X PTS to 1/3 PTS (meaning 2 to 15 Mil capitalization)

so all in all we agree that irrespective of no of coins the total market cap should be $40 - $75 mil upon launching...I hope that we are all on the same page here to believe that it should be at least $100 mil by the end of the year especially if Bitcoin gets pumped

I obviously disagree - 2 to 15 Mil is my prediction.

Your avg. expectation for the initial Market CAP is $8.5 Million

I am offering you a price that is 2.35 X higher then what you say your expectations are?

But don't worry, as you say -

It is one thing to make estimations, it is totally deferent if you have to put your money where your mouth is (i.e. buy/sell at those prices). Do not take it personally, it is human nature.

I guess saying '$2-15 Million' and even putting your money where your mouth is, at '$20 million' is a different thing  ;D

 
« Last Edit: July 03, 2014, 05:14:52 pm by Empirical1 »

Offline Simeon II

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(Unfortunately, I cannot do anywhere close to your 1%.) But I am happy to buy $10 000 worth of XT now at a 20 million CAP now. So 0.05 % of the total shares,



1% is not an issue (and never was ; it was up to 1%); I even do not have the full 1% as I said, I would have had to buy some to make it full one percent.

But cutting my price from 30 mil to 20 mill… Come on…
If you want to start negotiating again try going up from 30 mil not down…

Offline mf-tzo

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and as far as I am concerned under the same conditions that Empirical1 described I will be more than happy to pay $2,500 for 0.0125% of the total shares...Please someone arrange this...

Offline Empirical1

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First – The bet is of the table now! Let that be clear.

I was trying to make several points .
It is one thing to make estimations, it is totally deferent if you have to put your money where your mouth is (i.e. buy/sell at those prices). Do not take it personally, it is human nature.


As far as putting my money where my mouth is.
 
I hope you agree that there is a big difference between being able to buy on the market when the product is actually released and you have all the information about volume, depth & can gauge the interest/How people are receiving it? To make a deal before the market is a different proposition.

I know your bet is off the table. The best bet I can commit to now and offer is the following -

(Unfortunately, I cannot do anywhere close to your 1%.) But I am happy to buy $10 000 worth of XT now at a 20 million CAP now. So 0.05 % of the total shares,

The offer is available for next 24 hours, with the conditions

1. XTS is not trade-able on the market in the next 24 hours. 
2. Someone at I3 needs to handle the escrow and guarantee that I wll get 0.05% of the XTS supply for my $10 000.

I'm sure they are really busy, but maybe it will be good for publicity.
So you/someone else would just need to convince them to guarantee your side if you were interested in the bet.

I can transfer the BTC equivalent to I3 as soon as those conditions are met. (So there is nothing for them to guarantee from my side, only that they are willing to be escrow and to confirm that they've received my funds.) 

 



Offline Empirical1

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dream on with your buying price . Our BTS will surely be much higher than what you have just estimated. ::)

I agree. I think the market cap will be $50-75 million myself to start.

But that doesn't mean I want to buy from Simeon @ 30 million, though he is probably an honest guy.

But his account was created mid-May and XTS was allocated at the end of Feb.
1% is also a very big stake/investment to have made...
Also to jump on and try sell it (much too eagerly) for a low valuation when I didn't ask specifically to buy from someone off-market, makes me think he wants to keep the perception low so he can buy more too.
If you did have a big stake his actions seem illogical. But I don't know.

First – The bet is of the table now! Let that be clear.

I was trying to make several points .
It is one thing to make estimations, it is totally deferent if you have to put your money where your mouth is (i.e. buy/sell at those prices). Do not take it personally, it is human nature.
Several factors are in play for the initial price (most not in favor of BTS). So taking the highest price that PTS ever was, when you must be fully aware of the reasons driving the price up at that moment, and to use those prices as a starting point of calculating BTS initial price is pretty optimistic. I personally see the initial price/capitalization at a range of 2X PTS to 1/3 PTS (meaning 2 to 15 Mil capitalization)
So, all in all, BTS may go to  trillions someday, but this will be some day in the more distant future.

As for my side of the story – I have a lot of paper losses and missed opportunities ever since I  invested in Bitshares. What is worse, I envision even more of those in the near future. So locking my profits/losses at near 0 is not the worse deal for me... :)

Thanks for the explanation & analysis.
I hope you and other shareholders will be positively surprised by where BitShares XT trades,
I agree that if it doesn't then there has been a significant opportunity cost for shareholders who have had their funds tied up, specifically those that showed the most faith.

Offline Simeon II

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edit: We could have done something else (using BM) –ask him to move the balances from my account  to his accounts in the genesis block!

Possible or not... LOL

Sure as hell possible... assuming he has access to any text editor. :D

Offline liondani

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edit: We could have done something else (using BM) –ask him to move the balances from my account  to his accounts in the genesis block!

Possible or not... LOL

Offline Simeon II

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What % do you want me to put now?
20% OK?  (I can put 100% if you do not intend to go close to 1% of total shares).

Tell me how big you wanna go and I will offer you decent security deposit too.

The only way it is a fair deal is if you put up something like 500% deposit.  That way if XTS comes out real high and you don't send the XTS the other person still makes the return they should get.  Use someone at I3 like BM as escrow if he'd bother with it.

Sounds fair (Unfortunately I cannot deposit 500% my holdings, not even 100% if he wanted to go a whole 1%).
And thanks for the advice. The deal is off though.

edit: We could have done something else (using BM) –ask him to move the balances from my account  to his accounts in the genesis block!
« Last Edit: July 03, 2014, 01:43:31 pm by Simeon II »

Offline Agent86

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What % do you want me to put now?
20% OK?  (I can put 100% if you do not intend to go close to 1% of total shares).

Tell me how big you wanna go and I will offer you decent security deposit too.

The only way it is a fair deal is if you put up something like 500% deposit.  That way if XTS comes out real high and you don't send the XTS the other person still makes the return they should get.  Use someone at I3 like BM as escrow if he'd bother with it.

Offline mf-tzo

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I hope you are wrong or else I am f...d  :(