Author Topic: BTSX Valuation based upon standard P/E ratio of 20.  (Read 6677 times)

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Offline voldemort628

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Re: BTSX Valuation based upon standard P/E ratio of 20.
« Reply #15 on: September 10, 2014, 11:09:06 pm »
Well, your friend has some valid points there but i guess he is not so familiar with the crypto industry(?). Because apparently bitshares is the first of its kind in the industry, it's meant to improve on bitcoin's weaknesses, so basically we cant use p/e pf btc(as a company) to do valuation for bitshares.

I think a conservative p/e from a "similar" industry ( ie banking in real world) would do for an estimation of our valuation analysis. :)

Offline tonyk

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Re: BTSX Valuation based upon standard P/E ratio of 20.
« Reply #16 on: September 10, 2014, 11:13:53 pm »
I had a friend read BM's op, this is what he sent back:

"This guys argument is really poor. To use a P/E ratio you have to use it for all similar companies (for Apple you would use the tech industry average). The only benchmark you have for bitshares is bit coin which has negative earnings and is extremely overvalued. He brings up return on investment (roi) but that's going to be way higher because it's an unsecured virtual currency so accounting for that would drive his valuation way down. He also mentions that bitx is securitized by bitusd-this is a red flag. Who has conidence in securitizing with something equally as unsecuritized"

If anyone has any response for him, I will pass along

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Tell him to invest in Facebook shares then... in other words everyone is entitled to his (wrong) opinion. And no BTSX is not securitized by bitUSD...
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline Empirical1.1

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Re: BTSX Valuation based upon standard P/E ratio of 20.
« Reply #17 on: September 11, 2014, 01:02:35 pm »
  If BTSX is able to maintain its peg by backing bitUSD with BTSX and can share the transaction fees with bitUSD holders, then the demand for bitUSD will be enormous.   Due to the collateral system that requires effectively 3x the value of all bitUSD deposits to be held as collateral in BTSX,

This is where the value is for me and what other companies don't have. Every dollar worth of our product in circulation probably equals two to three dollars worth of value for BTSX?

I imagine the valuation will be primarily driven by how much 'BitAssets In Circulation' are increasing on average per month, not earnings from fees.

I mean a normal vault just earns a small percentage from the fees for each dollar of storage demand or trading in the case of an exchange & so their value is derived from that, but in BTSX, every $10 million of new outside BitAsset storage demand also directly adds at least $10 millon, probably $20-30 million to the value of the BTSX CAP, that's huge, no? How do you value that?

Like in the first month there are already circa $500 000 worth of BitAssets already in circulation. How many will be added per month as more BitAssets are introduced and now that we have BitYield!!  8) 8)  and how much will that rate be increasing by per month as adoption & demand continues and the system becomes perceived as more robust and safe? I think it's conservative to guestimate even now that the amount of BitAssets in circulation could be increasing by $2 million a month on avg. by month 12. That requires $70 million a year (3x value of BitAsset Deposits) of BTSX to be additionally tied up per year  most of which will have be added to the current CAP.  Multiply that by a few years and then add the earnings to the valuation too. It seems like BTSX will be worth a fortune based on legitimate valuations very early on.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2014, 01:23:48 pm by Empirical1.1 »

Offline voldemort628

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Re: BTSX Valuation based upon standard P/E ratio of 20.
« Reply #18 on: September 12, 2014, 12:50:19 am »
If it catches on, 2M per month in net in flow of capital is the worst case scenario imho.

Offline tonyk

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Re: BTSX Valuation based upon standard P/E ratio of 20.
« Reply #19 on: September 12, 2014, 12:56:11 am »
  If BTSX is able to maintain its peg by backing bitUSD with BTSX and can share the transaction fees with bitUSD holders, then the demand for bitUSD will be enormous.   Due to the collateral system that requires effectively 3x the value of all bitUSD deposits to be held as collateral in BTSX,

This is where the value is for me and what other companies don't have. Every dollar worth of our product in circulation probably equals two to three dollars worth of value for BTSX?

I imagine the valuation will be primarily driven by how much 'BitAssets In Circulation' are increasing on average per month, not earnings from fees.

I mean a normal vault just earns a small percentage from the fees for each dollar of storage demand or trading in the case of an exchange & so their value is derived from that, but in BTSX, every $10 million of new outside BitAsset storage demand also directly adds at least $10 millon, probably $20-30 million to the value of the BTSX CAP, that's huge, no? How do you value that?

Like in the first month there are already circa $500 000 worth of BitAssets already in circulation. How many will be added per month as more BitAssets are introduced and now that we have BitYield!!  8) 8)  and how much will that rate be increasing by per month as adoption & demand continues and the system becomes perceived as more robust and safe? I think it's conservative to guestimate even now that the amount of BitAssets in circulation could be increasing by $2 million a month on avg. by month 12. That requires $70 million a year (3x value of BitAsset Deposits) of BTSX to be additionally tied up per year  most of which will have be added to the current CAP.  Multiply that by a few years and then add the earnings to the valuation too. It seems like BTSX will be worth a fortune based on legitimate valuations very early on.

This leads me to not quite on topic but semi-related question -What do Billionaires do in their free time?

PS
I am just trying to be prepared that's all.
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline Riverhead

Re: BTSX Valuation based upon standard P/E ratio of 20.
« Reply #20 on: September 12, 2014, 01:39:25 am »
This leads me to not quite on topic but semi-related question -What do Billionaires do in their free time?

PS
I am just trying to be prepared that's all.


While I don't think I'll get super rich from BitShares I do hope to be able to retire sooner than expected. I have had conversations with my wife about this. I've never not had a job, deadlines, someone to report to. I'm sure I'll be able to keep busy but the fear of being rudderless surprised me.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2014, 01:52:47 am by Riverhead »

Offline tonyk

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Re: BTSX Valuation based upon standard P/E ratio of 20.
« Reply #21 on: September 12, 2014, 01:49:17 am »
For me retirement (being rich) is when I can work without the need to get a paycheck.
While I do not really envision myself  doing nothing, I will much prefer to do something that keeps my brain busy, gives me some 'moral' satisfaction and that occupation does not need to necessarily bring  financial benefits on any short term bases (weekly/monthly/yearly).
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline onceuponatime

Re: BTSX Valuation based upon standard P/E ratio of 20.
« Reply #22 on: September 12, 2014, 02:07:15 am »
For me retirement (being rich) is when I can work without the need to get a paycheck.
While I do not really envision myself  doing nothing, I will much prefer to do something that keeps my brain busy, gives me some 'moral' satisfaction and that occupation does not need to necessarily bring  financial benefits on any short term bases (weekly/monthly/yearly).

Oh, shit! you're starting to sound like you want to be as eagleeye already is (in his own mind).

Offline tonyk

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Re: BTSX Valuation based upon standard P/E ratio of 20.
« Reply #23 on: September 12, 2014, 02:09:31 am »
For me retirement (being rich) is when I can work without the need to get a paycheck.
While I do not really envision myself  doing nothing, I will much prefer to do something that keeps my brain busy, gives me some 'moral' satisfaction and that occupation does not need to necessarily bring  financial benefits on any short term bases (weekly/monthly/yearly).

Oh, shit! you're starting to sound like you want to be as eagleeye already is (in his own mind).

In a way I am truly scared by this possibility. I just checked and I AM in the top ten of all time posters...

I guess chickenbrain-menism is contagions, and spread by forum posts....
« Last Edit: September 12, 2014, 02:26:31 am by tonyk »
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline xeroc

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Re: BTSX Valuation based upon standard P/E ratio of 20.
« Reply #24 on: September 12, 2014, 06:34:01 am »
In a way I am truly scared by this possibility. I just checked and I AM in the top ten of all time posters...
welcome to the club :-)

If all this makes me "rich" (actually I am already rich: good health, lovely wife, roof over the top) .. so that I can retire I will as a consequence probably be busy enough to manage the fee flow ...  hoping to move around millions some day :-)
« Last Edit: July 31, 2019, 08:45:52 am by xeroc »
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Offline svk

Re: BTSX Valuation based upon standard P/E ratio of 20.
« Reply #25 on: September 12, 2014, 09:01:33 am »
For me retirement (being rich) is when I can work without the need to get a paycheck.
While I do not really envision myself  doing nothing, I will much prefer to do something that keeps my brain busy, gives me some 'moral' satisfaction and that occupation does not need to necessarily bring  financial benefits on any short term bases (weekly/monthly/yearly).

I feel the same way, being rich to me is having enough "fuck-you" money to be able to decide for yourself what you'd like to do with your time, not have it imposed on you by the necessity of having a steady salary for paying down mortgage, food, etc.. I hope to "retire" before I'm fourty, but retirement in my case merely means quitting my dayjob to work for myself on things that I'm passionate about. Hint: Bitshares is one of those things :)

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Offline Chuckone

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Re: BTSX Valuation based upon standard P/E ratio of 20.
« Reply #26 on: September 12, 2014, 11:37:56 am »
Good for you all if your stake in BTSX is large enough to be rich if it catches on  8)


Offline voldemort628

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Re: BTSX Valuation based upon standard P/E ratio of 20.
« Reply #27 on: September 12, 2014, 11:54:57 am »
How much do u think is "big enough"? :))

Offline Riverhead

Re: BTSX Valuation based upon standard P/E ratio of 20.
« Reply #28 on: September 12, 2014, 12:10:57 pm »
Good for you all if your stake in BTSX is large enough to be rich if it catches on  8)


I certainly won't get rich but might be able to switch to part time work, or a job that is less demanding of my time. May even be able to make a go of working in crypto.

Offline Chuckone

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Re: BTSX Valuation based upon standard P/E ratio of 20.
« Reply #29 on: September 12, 2014, 12:42:03 pm »
Good for you all if your stake in BTSX is large enough to be rich if it catches on  8)


I certainly won't get rich but might be able to switch to part time work, or a job that is less demanding of my time. May even be able to make a go of working in crypto.

On my part since I lost almost all my small BTC investment in the MtGox demise (except for 1 BTC, invested totally in PTS/AGS, after the feb. 28th snapshot, and then in BTSX just after the DNS/Vote snapshot), I won't get anywhere near being able to do anything special with my gains lol.

Not too late to invest more in promising DACs though! Too late for the "get in early, get rich", but I don't mind. I didn't expect to stop working before I'm 70 (not yet 30, so I've got a long way to go haha). And I have a good job, so no financial worries anyway!

I see Bitshares as a very interesting experiment I like to follow and participate in, so if I can make a few bucks in the process that's good, but I'm not expecting to get rich.

I like to see early investors getting wealthy though, that's quite inspiring. I'm not envious (not my type), and it's fun to see that hard working people and early believers get their dues.

Cheers!