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Messages - Agent86

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106
General Discussion / Re: Max Short Holding Period
« on: October 01, 2014, 02:10:45 am »
And here is the other side of the equation:
how about we restrict the longs to also buy just at the beg?

It will definitely fortify the peg. Everybody is selling and buying just and only at the peg, and the shorts compete just by the amount of collateral provided.

Perfect peg. No? What more one can ask for...
You can't restrict free trade/exchange between BTSX and BitUSD... the trading could just move off chain.
I agree that you should not, ... but your system just did that for one side of the trade... so what prevents us to do the same for the other counterparty? And it will inforce the peg like... ice
It's not the same at all and the "two sides of the trade" are not equivalent.  When you are in the business of shorting bitAssets there's really no limit to how much you can sell.

107
General Discussion / Re: Max Short Holding Period
« on: October 01, 2014, 02:00:37 am »
And here is the other side of the equation:
how about we restrict the longs to also buy just at the beg?

It will definitely fortify the peg. Everybody is selling and buying just and only at the peg, and the shorts compete just by the amount of collateral provided.

Perfect peg. No? What more one can ask for...
You can't restrict free trade/exchange between BTSX and BitUSD... the trading could just move off chain.

108
General Discussion / Re: Max Short Holding Period
« on: October 01, 2014, 01:51:25 am »
How "short lived" the highly collateralized positions are is irrelevant if you always have compete to put up high collateral whenever you re-short.  It may not have made a huge difference overnight because there are still a lot of low collateral positions out there, but if those are forced closed or we started the system with collateral prioritization from the beginning then you would see the difference.

Ok, let assume for now they are highly collateralized (not the main objective of your proposal, (but I agree that finding a solution to increase collateral  it is good) ,btw). How this makes the peg tighter?
Example from new system:
You use (tie up) $10,000 worth of BTSX to post a large collateral to short 1,000 bitUSD into existance (at par)… 15mins later someone offers for sale 1,000 bitUSD for $970… would you cover?

Sure why not, you just made $30 in 15 mins, and you can get right back to the front of the shorting line by putting up your big collateral again.  If you have a robot doing this you are making $120/ hr.

What is the alternative, wait for that 1:10 amount of leverage to give you a little extra gain if BTSX rises… not worth it, much better to take the easy money from people willing to sell cheap bitUSD.


In the prior system:

You used your $10,000 worth of BTSX to short 10,000 bitUSD,  You only got $9,500 worth of BTSX from the buyer ($500 went to fees because you were competing on fees.)

Now you see someone offering to sell bit USD for 0.97 on the dollar  (selling 10,000 bitUSD for $9,700)…
Do you buy it and cover?  Of course you don't buy it because you would have just lost $200 by buying it, it doesn't even cover your fees.  You will just sit and hope for BTSX to rise.

Result:
Original system: short doesn't buy bitUSD priced at 0.97
New system: short does buy bitUSD priced at 0.97

109
General Discussion / Re: Max Short Holding Period
« on: October 01, 2014, 01:25:03 am »

How can you say that prioritizing by collateral won't increase the collateral?  Of course it does and this means that bitUSD will have more collateral securing it which should give bitUSD holders greater confidence.


Sorry, for deleting the rest of your inconsistent statements (if you disagree we can argue on them separately).

Easily so, highly collateralized short lived position do not increase the overall collateralization... by much...

but this is just a tiny bit of my problems with the whole system...

BTW, this is the last time I am proving to you why your system does not work. From now on expect, you to prove why it does!
Nothing personal, I am generally not in the business of proving negative facts! Do you want me to ask the same question I asked the NuBits guy?

How "short lived" the highly collateralized positions are is irrelevant if you always have compete to put up high collateral whenever you re-short.  It may not have made a huge difference overnight because there are still a lot of low collateral positions out there, but if those are forced closed or we started the system with collateral prioritization from the beginning then you would see the difference.

110
General Discussion / Re: Max Short Holding Period
« on: October 01, 2014, 01:17:51 am »
Quote
I guess I just don't see people "dropping their pants" to unload bitUSD if they know that holding for less than a year will give them face value.  I'm not saying your view doesn't have merit but I think if it's that critical the over-creation of bitUSD probably already happened and now most will be grandfathered anyway - it would be kind of nice to reset the market in the short run.

I didn't make any sense from that comment but then again I am tired so I better go to sleep now..What do you mean "reset the market in the short run"?
I'm just describing forced covering as "resetting the market" (all positions are opened new from scratch and excess bitassets are removed from circulation).

My point was that there is a limit to how much people will undervalue their bitassets when they know they just have to wait a bit to get the full value.  Making shorts re-short every month seems like a lot of work to me.

So if (short_order_opened(time) >= 30 days, close_order());

is a lot of work, but new rules for shorts is not?

Sorry, I didn't mean that it was a lot of work to change the code.  I'm saying it is more work for shorters to have to re-short every 30 days (not more work for programmers)

111
General Discussion / Re: Max Short Holding Period
« on: October 01, 2014, 12:55:36 am »
I'm just describing forced covering as "resetting the market" (all positions are opened new from scratch and excess bitassets are removed from circulation).

My point was that there is a limit to how much people will undervalue their bitassets when they know they just have to wait a bit to get the full value.  Making shorts re-short every month seems like a lot of work to me.

So if (short_order_opened(time) >= 30 days, close_order());

is a lot of work, but new rules for shorts is not?

Why are the new rules for shorts "a lot of work"?

I don't see how they are more work.  As a short, you pay less fees, you can specify your bottom line price, and can now specify collateral (I think most people prefer this over a two step partial cover).

Do not bushtit me... explain how they(the new rules) increase the volume and / or the collateral...
You promised both they do neither, in my view. (and sorry we all know you are the only one here with a full time job)
Sorry for the high burden I put on you by asking.
How can you say that prioritizing by collateral won't increase the collateral?  Of course it does and this means that bitUSD will have more collateral securing it which should give bitUSD holders greater confidence.

I have said before and I think others, that when the market first opened there was almost certainly more bitUSD created then there was a legitimate use for (bitUSD is useful for commerce).  This was because of the lack of restriction on shorting and caused bitUSD to be undervalued.

We haven't done anything specifically to get rid of this abundance, but this abundance is a separate issue from the new shorting rules.  That's why I'm saying forcing people to cover instead of grandfathering them could help "reset" the market to get it back on track more quickly.  But generally I don't think there will be a need to reset the market every 30 days.

I've stated the reason I don't like prioritizing based on fees is it makes the cost of transacting too high and increases the spread. 

Think about it like arbitrage between exchanges... If one exchange was trading at a different price but the cost of transaction/withdrawal fees and moving the money between exchanges was too high you couldn't take advantage of the arbitrage opportunity to even out the price.

112
General Discussion / Re: Max Short Holding Period
« on: October 01, 2014, 12:27:12 am »
I'm just describing forced covering as "resetting the market" (all positions are opened new from scratch and excess bitassets are removed from circulation).

My point was that there is a limit to how much people will undervalue their bitassets when they know they just have to wait a bit to get the full value.  Making shorts re-short every month seems like a lot of work to me.

So if (short_order_opened(time) >= 30 days, close_order());

is a lot of work, but new rules for shorts is not?

Why are the new rules for shorts "a lot of work"?

I don't see how they are more work.  As a short, you pay less fees, you can specify your bottom line price, and can now specify collateral (I think most people prefer this over a two step partial cover).

113
General Discussion / Re: Max Short Holding Period
« on: October 01, 2014, 12:01:17 am »
Quote
I guess I just don't see people "dropping their pants" to unload bitUSD if they know that holding for less than a year will give them face value.  I'm not saying your view doesn't have merit but I think if it's that critical the over-creation of bitUSD probably already happened and now most will be grandfathered anyway - it would be kind of nice to reset the market in the short run.

I didn't make any sense from that comment but then again I am tired so I better go to sleep now..What do you mean "reset the market in the short run"?
I'm just describing forced covering as "resetting the market" (all positions are opened new from scratch and excess bitassets are removed from circulation).

My point was that there is a limit to how much people will undervalue their bitassets when they know they just have to wait a bit to get the full value.  Making shorts re-short every month seems like a lot of work to me.

114
General Discussion / Re: Max Short Holding Period
« on: September 30, 2014, 11:37:38 pm »
Forced 30 day covering feels pretty aggressive to me.  I feel like having it just be one year (consistent with the inactivity fee) would be fine.  I'm not saying there's a right answer but it seems unnecessarily short to me.  I think the main benefit of a new short window would only be achieved if current shorts were not grandfathered in - we could sort of hit the reset button on the market that may have created a bit too much bitUSD supply in the early days without short restriction.  I don't think there's a moral imperative to give current shorts an exception but it is what it is…  I'm just not sure having a short 30 day with grandfathering cover has a real advantage over a one year force cover.

It is very necessary because without it the varying demand for BitUSD will cause the peg to suffer.... suppose there is a massive increase in BitUSD demand (BTSX Bubble) so the supply doubles pairing to shorts who don't want to cover for a year.  Then all of a sudden people want out of BitUSD (Bubble is Over)... there are not enough buyers on the market and the long-term shorts don't want to cover (they have potentially lost money as BTSX was falling so don't want to realize their loss.   The only solution the market has at this point is for BitUSD holders to sell at a loss large enough to motivate long-term holders.   The fact that they are selling at a loss will discourage future BitUSD holders from buying.   

In the long-run, you can increase the forced covering period or remove it all together... but in a young illiquid market it is certainly necessary to ensure that there is plenty of liquidity and that BitUSD will always revert to the peg within a month of any increase in supply.
I guess I just don't see people "dropping their pants" to unload bitUSD if they know that holding for less than a year will give them face value.  I'm not saying your view doesn't have merit but I think if it's that critical the over-creation of bitUSD probably already happened and now most will be grandfathered anyway - it would be kind of nice to reset the market in the short run.

115
General Discussion / Re: Max Short Holding Period
« on: September 30, 2014, 11:05:16 pm »
Forced 30 day covering feels pretty aggressive to me.  I feel like having it just be one year (consistent with the inactivity fee) would be fine.  I'm not saying there's a right answer but it seems unnecessarily short to me.  I think the main benefit of a new short window would only be achieved if current shorts were not grandfathered in - we could sort of hit the reset button on the market that may have created a bit too much bitUSD supply in the early days without short restriction.  I don't think there's a moral imperative to give current shorts an exception but it is what it is…  I'm just not sure having a short 30 day with grandfathering cover has a real advantage over a one year force cover.

116
General Discussion / Re: Why I suck and Agent86 does not!
« on: September 30, 2014, 03:21:37 pm »
This is partly in response to the following conversation (which starts here https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=9464.msg123288#msg123288) I had with bitmeat.

So generally, I suck because I answered 4 of his question (albeit jokingly) and Agent86 answered only 1 of them but politely.

It does not matter that A86 is the mastermind behind this new short market rules. It does not matter that I have managed to collect like 85% of the answer HOW those market rules work. I have done that through scraping through post partly relate/explaining said rules and through tests in the BTSX client. Test that as we speak have left  non-cancelable orders, orders stretching not only in one market, but appearing in several (bitUSD/BTSX and bitBTC/bitUSD in that case).

But the person who designed those market changes, the person who knows 100% of not only HOW but also WHY those market rules work, as well as what are the benefits from them cares to politely answer just one question (from time to time) when several questions are asked. Requests for explanation of those rules have been plenty – in posts and even entire threads have been dedicated to  that! But the only person that knows the real answers (other than the developers themselves, but we all know they have more work than humanly possible to handle) does not care to post them.
But for that I suck and he does not!

I also suck because before giving the right answers to bitmeat, I have to dig out what the problem of mf-tzo was regarding his short orders. https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=9361.msg123205#msg123205 The usually helpful xeroc was on the wrong path regarding the issue… the reason for that – nobody has written straight all the new rules regarding shorting. So, your rule digging, just 85% sure about those rules, in house sucker, had to help the guy.
But for that I suck and the above it all politely answering from time to time, masterminds of those rules does not!


Cheers!
I don't know why you're giving devs a free pass for being busy but not me.  I have a time consuming full time job and I'm also a volunteer like you.  I'm hoping to start working on things full time but it's not my current situation.  I would like to spend time on content/ELI5 but I am busy.  I have said you are helpful on the forums, I think bitmeat was only joking when he said you suck.

Speaking of which. You should create an ELI5 for the new market rules and have it stickied. Correct me if I'm wrong but it seems to me the new market engine is meant only for bot trading? The lack of understanding would certainly explain why BitUSD volume has tanked.
The market rules are not meant only for bot trading, getting rid of the prioritization by fee in favor of prioritization by collateral just made it less costly to trade on deviations/inefficiencies in the market so you may see more bot activity.

117
General Discussion / Re: feeds?
« on: September 29, 2014, 11:38:28 pm »
In the new UI when shorting there is a price you need to enter. If the price is defined by the feed, why is there a price, is that like a limit? Basically saying I won't short higher than that? Or is it I won't short lower than that? I'm confused and I must have missed the clean definition of how the new shorting works. Can we get a wiki with some graphics so people understand it better?

Also prioritized by collateral level in what direction? Again a page with some examples of pending shorts and which one takes priority would be great.
Yes the price is a limit.  When you short you are "selling" bitUSD into existance, so it is saying "I won't accept less than X number of BTSX for the bitUSD I am selling."  You are of course always happy to take more BTSX per bitUSD than you are asking for, but it sets a lower limit on what you will take.

Hightest collateral is prioritized, meaning the shorts that are putting up the most collateral(BTSX) per bitUSD are prioritized and matched first.

118
General Discussion / Re: Proposed Future DAC Delegate Pay Model
« on: September 29, 2014, 06:59:29 pm »
Network Maintainers' (aka Delegate's) job is measurable, strictly defined, and can be audited. It can even be decentralised (Imagine each delegate split into X different subdelegates that need all approve the same block). Their job is network support and security.

You propose to merge these accountable/auditable strictly defined jobs with investment politics, dilution and subjective  "increase the value of DAC".
Here I disagree with you.
I am also of the opinion that delegates should be separate from workers.  I also feel strongly that dilution should require majority (50%+) approval of "active" shares. 

Gamey, I think your idea that merging this function into the role of delegate simplifies things is wrong and it will have the opposite effect.  It creates more complication and need for "brainpower" than keeping the roles separate.

discussion from a while back:
https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=5467.msg73251#msg73251

You operate under the assumption that people have spare time to learn the 101 delegates to begin with.  This has shown to be wrong.

We haven't really cracked keeping track of 101 delegates. 

A person spending their inflation in a wasted manner will be likely brought to light quite quickly. 

Having 2 lists of people keep track of etc just adds obvious complexity, but it might happen not be as novel and so it makes more sense to people.  So I agree if the board of directors is sufficiently small it could make it simpler for a user to keep track of, yet it is still another page on the GUI, another separate race, etc etc.  I understand it fits into pre-existing defined roles, but that doesn't mean it actually makes it all simpler.  Perhaps it does, but it definitely does not from the coding end and makes the codebase even more complex.

Also by making a smaller board of directors, you give any 1 person more power than spreading the power around 101 delegates. I'm not sure thats actually a good thing.

I'm not advocating starting another "list of 101 people."  With workers you just approve who you want and ignore the rest.  If they get over 50% approval they are in so the list can be as small as 0 or 1 (you don't have to vote for 101 people to maximize your influence).

You operate under the assumption that people have spare time to learn the 101 delegates to begin with.  This has shown to be wrong.

We haven't really cracked keeping track of 101 delegates.
I never agreed with having a fixed number of 101 delegates people must keep track of.  I think I have cracked this problem, I just haven't taken the time to write it up.  I support a dynamic number of delegates so there is no harm in only voting for a handful of delegates.

119
General Discussion / Re: Proposed Future DAC Delegate Pay Model
« on: September 29, 2014, 06:28:54 pm »
Network Maintainers' (aka Delegate's) job is measurable, strictly defined, and can be audited. It can even be decentralised (Imagine each delegate split into X different subdelegates that need all approve the same block). Their job is network support and security.

You propose to merge these accountable/auditable strictly defined jobs with investment politics, dilution and subjective  "increase the value of DAC".
Here I disagree with you.
I am also of the opinion that delegates should be separate from workers.  I also feel strongly that dilution should require majority (50%+) approval of "active" shares. 

Gamey, I think your idea that merging this function into the role of delegate simplifies things is wrong and it will have the opposite effect.  It creates more complication and need for "brainpower" than keeping the roles separate.

discussion from a while back:
https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=5467.msg73251#msg73251

120
sorry for crossposting:
Fussyhands,
The statement: "the buying power of gold is highly volatile" is a subjective statement rather than a "FACT". When you use words like "highly" "extremely" you are making a subjective judgment and these statements must be considered in context.  In the context of the discussion taking place about altcoin cryptocurrencies I think it is fair to say that the buying power you can expect from gold is significantly less volatile and more predictable than the buying power you can expect from most altcoins.  Rather than present the statement as incontrovertible fact, perhaps if you explained more specifically what "highly volatile" means to you there would be opportunity for agreement.

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