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Topics - Ander

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Its happening now.  I expect bitcoin to bottom this weekend and the new bull market in all crypto will be born.  I'm not sure what that price will be, a double bottom at 275, the old April 2013 high at 260, or a crash below that into the mid to low 200s for a short time, but this is probably it, right here. 

Its a good sign that we are down less than bitcoin today.  We are only dropping because bitcoin and litecoin are in all out crash mode. 

General Discussion / BTS long term support
« on: December 17, 2014, 05:55:39 am »
We just bounced off long term support.

These are the times to buy, not when it is up 30% due to some pump. (Like the last time I posted a chart...sigh)

If anyone complains that 4 months isnt "long term", well...4 months is a long time in Crypto, and BTS has only been out a few months. :P

General Discussion / "Bitshares is decentralized Ripple"
« on: December 17, 2014, 04:17:01 am »
"Bitshares is decentralized Ripple" is a message that we need to promote, imo.
Credit for this idea goes to Toast.

Ripple is the hot thing right now, but bitcoiners hate it because it helps the same old centralized banking system to succeed. 

This is the message that we could use to win over some bitcoin folks.

(I even think it is true, or I should say, will be true once all the bitshares features are implemented!)

General Discussion / Inflation rate / Supply of Sparkle over time?
« on: December 14, 2014, 11:09:42 am »
Could someone create a chart showing what the supply / inflation rate of Sparkle will be over time?

Alternately, could someone provide info which would allow me to create this chart? 


General Discussion / Did any news just happen?
« on: December 12, 2014, 06:19:49 am »
I just saw BTC and NSR take a dive and BTS rocket all at the same time.    Was amazing!

As we all are probably aware, a decline in the price of BTS of more than 66% in a short period of time (a 'black swan' event), would cause problems to bitAssets, as there would no longer be sufficient BTS collateral backing them.  When the resulting margin call is executed, some of the value that should go to the bitAsset holder might be unrecoverable.

While a decline of this magnitude seems unlikely, it is not outside of the realm of possibility.  After all, in its past bitcoin has had a couple crashes when exchanges went down.  Alternately, a bug in the price feeds could result in the false appearance that the price had declined dramatically.

What modifications could be implemented in order to reduce or eliminate this vulnerability?

An idea:

* Implement 'brakes' on the amount that a price feed can change. 

In the stock market, exchanges automatically halt trading for a period of time if prices decline by more than a certain percentage.  This helps to prevent or limit 'flash crashes', and allows time for the market to stabilize and new orders to be placed.

We know that bitAsset pegs work fine in the event of a steady decline, as long as it does not occur too quickly.

If price feeds were prevented from declining by more than X% over a Y hour period, then the system would have time to adjust, and issue margin calls while there was still sufficient collateral in the system to cover them.  The percentage change allowed could be quite large, perhaps 50%. 

Other ideas, comments and criticisms are appreciated. 
Ideally, any solution would not infringe on free market principles. 

General Discussion / Bitcoin difficulty finally went down.
« on: December 03, 2014, 01:47:27 am »
It hasnt gone down since January 2013.  It just had a less than 1% decrease.

The only period in bitcoin's history where the difficulty had some decreases was during the 2011-2012 bear market phase, where it was very undervalued.

This might be a good sign for crypto's in general, as it could be a sign of the end of the crypto bear market.

General Discussion / The trilemma problem
« on: December 02, 2014, 07:32:50 pm »
In this thread on bitcointalk:

A user stated that what bitshares is trying to do (market pegged assests) is 'impossible' due to the trilemma (impossible trinity) problem:

I fully agree that the impossible trinity is indeed impossible, but I do not think that bitshares is attempting to achieve all three of these policies.  It might be useful to have a whitepaper regarding this issue that will explain bitshares position, and how what we are attempting to do is not impossible by the rules of monetary policy. 

Essentially, the trilemma states that it is impossible to achieve all three of:
* A fixed exchange rate.
* Free capital flow.
* Sovereign monetary policy.

Attempting to have all three of these eventually leads to a monetary crisis.

I believe the response to this is that Bitshares is not attempting to achieve a sovereign monetary policy.  It is only attempting to have a fixed exchange rate and free capital flow. 

That is, we are not making any attempt to control interest rates or the supply of money, these are dictated by free market forces.

However, it would be nice to have someone who is more of an expert in this area analyze this.  Perhaps we should have a white paper explaining the results of this analysis, and showing that bitshares is not attempting to do the impossible with pegged bitAssets.

General Discussion / Predict the date of the Bitshares 1.0 release
« on: December 01, 2014, 09:49:17 pm »
I predict Jan 7, 2015.

Whoever guesses the right day gets...the joy of knowing they were right. :)

General Discussion / The Bitshares SUPERbull thread
« on: November 29, 2014, 11:52:59 pm »
(In this post, I shall channel my inner Stan, and pump bitshares!  Lets begin).

Right now, people here are pretty happy with the 20% rise today, but most of us are so used to the bear market of the past 3 months that we are expecting the price to just be beaten down again.  We are wondering if we should sell now and rebuy a bit lower.  We are imagining this move today as a pump which will be followed by a dump.  We are conditioned by months of pain to expect more pain after anything good happens. 

During the bear market phase we just suffered through, this thinking would have been correct.  We have been conditioned to be bears and to sell every rise.

However, it might be different this time.  Really different.
Of course, in a bear market, there are always people who think 'this time it is different', this time, that was the final low, and now we will go up.  They think this on every low, but more lows follow.

However, THIS time, there are real, strong, technical reasons to believe that the bear phase is over, FOR REAL, and that a new bull phase has begun!  During this bull phase, price will rise RELENTLESSLY, with minimal pullbacks that only serve to trick people into selling and hoping to rebuy lower.  They then get left behind as the price goes higher and higher and higher, until they either panic buy back in at higher prices, or are forced onto the sidelines and end up regretting their sell forever.

Do not be shaken off this bull!
The bear attacks you with its claws, delivering painful declines after any rise, but the bull tries to shake you off its back as it moves higher.  Now is the time to HODL as hard as you can!  Do not sell for your measly 25% gains.  If you sell, do so only after LARGE gains.  After the price doubles, or triples, or even goes to 10x what it was before!  Do not let go of your precious BTS unless the buyers pay you a PREMIUM price in their panic buys!

Here is a very crowded chart, showing all of the bullish developments, and a very, very bullish purple line predicting the future price.

Alright, yes, the purple line is probably too bullish.  A much more likely scenario is that this rise takes place over weeks or months, not days. 
However, what is picture is clearly possible based on the price action we are seeing.  Maybe the chance is only 10-20% or so, but this is not a silly daydream fantasy scenario here.  The price chart is telling us that this actually *might* happen.  It is one reasonable possibility that might occur, and it is the reason why you absolutely SHOULD NOT be selling and hoping to buy lower here if you are a true believer in Bitshares.

You know how Ripple just tripled in value in the past 2 weeks?  Bitshares might be just starting to do exactly the same thing, right now.  This is a totally reasonable scenario that a rational person analyzing this price chart could see happening.  All of the elements needed for this to occur have happened.  The MACD buy signal and the moving average cross and the breaking of the downtrend line and resistance levels, and the rise in buying volume are all occurring right in this timeframe in order to allow this scenario to be possible!

Am I saying this will definitely happen?  No, of course not.  Is this th emost likely way for things to play out.  No, a tamer and slower rise to new all time highs over a period of several months has a higher chance of occuring.  A pullback first is still possible, and maybe those that sell and rebuy will get lucky.  But if there was ever a time to be all in and hodling as hard as possible, this is the time!

Let us hold our shares tight, and see how high this thing can go. 
Let us hold our shares tight, and not let those that sold because of 'dilution' or the merger get their shares back without paying a high price.
Let us hold our shares tight, and be amused at the haters who cannot understand why bitshares is rising so strongly, day after day (just like most of us probably felt about ripple this week).
Let us hold, and watch the price with amazement.

We have suffered, these past two months, but now is our time.
I hope that most of you reading this are like me, and you made sacrifices in order to buy absolutely every bitshare that you could.  That you worked overtime, that you sat at home eating ramen noodles, and put every penny you had into BTS.  That you counted every dollar you spent these past weeks, and then spend it on BTS instead while we were under 2 cents.

We bought, while those around us sold BTS in tears.
We bought, while those around us mocked BTS, and said the peg had failed.
We bought, while it hurt so badly that we wanted to throw up every time we looked at the price.


Chinese bitcoin exchange Huobi just took 46% of its BTC futures traders (margin traders) profits from the past week in order to cover a loss of 1 million dollars that it suffered when a customer went bankrupt trading bitcoin at 20x leverage during the huge rise last week, and then it couldn't exit the trade. 

Read here:

First off, 20x leverage in bitcoin is utter insanity.  This market is nowhere near liquid enough, and the moves are too large, for 20x leverage to work.  This is shown by the fact that Huobi managed to lose 1 million dollars because it allowed its traders to use 20x leverage.  At that amount of leverage, in a market as small as bitcoin, there is no way to unwind the losing trade properly once you give the margin call to the trader.  Apparently this margin call took the price all the way down to 2378 CNY, after being issued at 2817!  If you want to know why bitcoin went up to 2900 last week and then crashed back down, this is why!) 

But this event points out the benefit that Bitshares has over a trusted 3rd party exchange.

With Bitshares, you make trades on the blockchain.  If you short bitUSD (essentially taking a margin long position in BTS), the result is going to be enforced in the blockchain.

If you make profits, they are your profits, and no one can take them from you without your private key.

Because you are using a decentralized system, rather than trading in a central exchange, there is no one who can do what Huobi just did, and steal your profits.

General Discussion / Is this the bottom?
« on: November 21, 2014, 02:34:31 am »
I think there is a good chance that this is the bottom in BTS or very close to it.

The elliot wave count at this point looks simple enough that even I, an amateur, can count it:

I labeled the august rise as a I, because it was the first major move up since BTS began trading this summer.  Of course, people paid various prices for their BTS by donating to AGS or donating PTS, but I dont know how to count all that. 

The entire decline since August looks like like a 3-3-5 ABC.  Wave 3 of C extended due to the terrible sentiment at that time, due to the dilution and merger and all the associated pain.

Note the divergence in he MACD.  We are at a slightly lower low for wave 5 of C of II, but the MACD is much higher. 

The blue wave III arrow is not meant to indicate a timeframe or a price target, it only indicates that the next rise has begun.

Note that wave 5 of C is not necessarily complete yet.  We could continue down into new lows to complete 5 of C.  The decline could be over but it is not necessarily completed yet. 
A rise above .117 CNY or so should indicate that 5 of C was finished and we are in wave 3. 

I am just wondering what is an estimate for an average price that would have been paid for BTS, during the AGS donation period.

That is, on average, how many AGS did one get per BTC donated?
How many BTS did one get per AGS share?


General Discussion / Coinmarketcap has updated
« on: November 19, 2014, 06:23:46 pm »
We are at just under 2.5B shares available supply now on coinmarketcap.

Seems like a good time for this to happen, while things are quiet and no coins switch places as a result. 

Also, since the hard fork, the number of bitshares has actually gone down slightly, because transaction fees and delegate registration fees have been larger than new shares for paid delegates.  (Of course, once we elect paid delegates this will change, but it still wont go up all that fast).

General Discussion / Somoene must've thought Ethercoin was Ethereum
« on: November 18, 2014, 10:09:20 pm »

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