Quote from: Kenof on June 02, 2014, 12:11:33 PM
Very very soon  ;D

:D  +5%  :D

Within one month,I guess.

Very very soon  ;D

:D  +5%  :D

Quote from: kokojie on May 23, 2014, 11:42:16 PM
Is this fairlay.com site legit? who owns it? when did it open?

I'm afraid I have no idea.

It should be safe to risk a few mBTC, for only a few months. I wouldn't trust it for large bets, or for a long time.

Is this fairlay.com site legit? who owns it? when did it open?

Unfortunately, part "c" is a little difficult to swallow.

Depending on one's interpretation of "an asset which at least attempts to be worth the BTS/USD exchange rate", the answer could easily be: never.

Quote from: jae208 on May 22, 2014, 03:10:41 AM

Quote from: xeroc on May 21, 2014, 07:26:00 PM
once you can spend it .. it will have value and thus might be listed @ coinmarketcap

+5%

Yes, the market basically asks when BitsharesX will be liquid.

Quote from: xeroc on May 21, 2014, 07:26:00 PM
once you can spend it .. it will have value and thus might be listed @ coinmarketcap

+5%

once you can spend it .. it will have value and thus might be listed @ coinmarketcap

Quote from: AsymmetricInformation on May 21, 2014, 12:50:33 PM

Quote from: luckybit on May 20, 2014, 05:30:53 PM
It's very enticing to make the wager in favor of it being before Sept 1st.

Talk is cheap.

Quote from: bytemaster on May 20, 2014, 06:07:38 PM
...I would be unable to estimate any dates.   

There's no need for you to worry about that. Estimating the date is what the market is for.

Quote from: jae208 on May 21, 2014, 04:47:39 AM
my question is, when will bitshares xt be made liquid?

Their market includes "ability to send BTS". Wouldn't that be the same thing?

I was hoping it would be listed on some exchange and have a market cap on coinmarketcap too

Quote from: xeroc on May 21, 2014, 06:45:43 AM
Give them a few more weeks and checkout the sources and progress at githib .. they are currently bugfixing

You aren't betting, though? Its free money if you're right.


I myself have no idea when BitsharesX will be released. I know that, in the past, deadlines have been promised and pushed back several months, so I would not be surprised to see them pushed back by months yet again (a la Talebian 'Extremistan'). Instead I noticed that there seems to be investor anxiety, and an interminable debate on this forum as to the release date. This prediction market may be able to solve these problems.

'If you read what I've published I think you'll understand that my primary motivation is just to get the word out about how cool PMs are and how they can save everyone a lot of time and effort. I'm really not trying to push the site or these specific markets, other than that this is an opportunity for investors to actually learn about when the software will actually come out.'

Yes, I know. I have read your whitepaper and the threads here and on bitcointalk. It is really sad that Dan do not to want to invest in developing PM DAC. Though, I do not agree with your opinion that this is because of such DAC will compete with BTS X...

Quote from: Simeon II on May 21, 2014, 02:22:27 PM
^^ AsymmetricInformation^^ are you involved with the development on the site you posted a link to?

No. Although I now feel the need to disclose a few things: I did help them come up with the particular wording of this contract, which is why I'm extra interested in this particular market. Also, I just found out (just now) that the administrators, who are interested in my research, are going to donate the fees they collect for these 3 markets to my Truthcoin project, which is very nice of them (although they [and I] believe that these fees will be very very small). However I still have no affiliation with that site. They've posted in my bitcointalk thread to talk about prediction markets, and sent me a few messages about my work.

If you read what I've published I think you'll understand that my primary motivation is just to get the word out about how cool PMs are and how they can save everyone a lot of time and effort. I'm really not trying to push the site or these specific markets, other than that this is an opportunity for investors to actually learn about when the software will actually come out.

Quote from: Simeon II on May 21, 2014, 02:22:27 PM
I just think it would be better to buy something that already has 'determined'  (even if changing with each bet) odds. It is kind of hard to 1.come with reasonable odds 2. Wait somebody to hopefully take the other side.

Since publishing my work, I've been in contact with several people about their PM ideas/websites. I always suggest the use of Market Scoring Rules, which just say "costs x for y shares" (where y shares are always worth 1 unit, for example 1 BTC). These are much easier to understand, as you say, and you don't need to wait for anyone to take the other side, again as you say.

Unfortunately most PM-operators don't want to use them. I have a couple theories as to why. In the lead is: people put in lots of effort coming up with their own custom way of doing the trading environment, and don't want to abandon it.

I placed the first 3 bets, though, not wanting to see the market stall out (after I myself worded it!). Its true that I have no idea when BitsharesX will be released, I assumed that it would be before September, but bet against that so that someone who also thought it would be released soon would have someone to bet against (me). I used the "advanced" mode which I actually found easier to understand (just set the probability and amount, similar to InTrade).

^^ AsymmetricInformation^^ are you involved with the development on the site you posted a link to?
I just think it would be better to buy something that already has 'determined'  (even if changing with each bet) odds. It is kind of hard to 1.come with reasonable odds 2. Wait somebody to hopefully take the other side.

Quote from: luckybit on May 20, 2014, 05:30:53 PM
It's very enticing to make the wager in favor of it being before Sept 1st.

Talk is cheap.

Quote from: bytemaster on May 20, 2014, 06:07:38 PM
...I would be unable to estimate any dates.   

There's no need for you to worry about that. Estimating the date is what the market is for.

Quote from: jae208 on May 21, 2014, 04:47:39 AM
my question is, when will bitshares xt be made liquid?

Their market includes "ability to send BTS". Wouldn't that be the same thing?

Quote from: xeroc on May 21, 2014, 06:45:43 AM
Give them a few more weeks and checkout the sources and progress at githib .. they are currently bugfixing

You aren't betting, though? Its free money if you're right.


I myself have no idea when BitsharesX will be released. I know that, in the past, deadlines have been promised and pushed back several months, so I would not be surprised to see them pushed back by months yet again (a la Talebian 'Extremistan'). Instead I noticed that there seems to be investor anxiety, and an interminable debate on this forum as to the release date. This prediction market may be able to solve these problems.

Give them a few more weeks and checkout the sources and progress at githib .. they are currently bugfixing

my question is, when will bitshares xt be made liquid?