Is everyone against merger and inflating for stuff out of BTS yet?

[svk]

This is how I personally see it... Bitshares is being hypocritical when it now switches from a deflationary cryptocurrency to an inflationary one. Sure, the inflation has been implemented for the "greater good", but it is hard to justify that for me. For months (almost a year) Bitshares has been marketing itself on the point that Bitcoin is diluting its shareholders, and that Bitshares looks at cryptocurrency differently in that it makes a profit for its shareholders by burning fees & being deflationary. I personally was sold on that point and it makes a lot of sense to me. Now, even though the dilution is more controlled (you can only dilute for developers, marketers, etc), it is still dilution and something I.. as a very small shareholder..  have no control over.

You can say the inflation will help with development, advertising, etcera, and for the record I do not think that is incorrect. The problem is Bitshares is trying to live hypocritically when it comes to its stance on dilution. It can be easily argued (just as easily as some have ITT) that Bitcoin dilution compared to its volume has little to no effect on its price in terms of selling all dilution on the market. If Bitshares were valued similarly.. it would be no different in reality.. it too would need hundreds of millions of dollars pouring in yearly to sustain its price.

This is part of the reason I dropped the idea of being a delegate. I feel like there's far too much group think that goes on in this community, and I gave up on pleasing the community to sideline my opinions. Instead of echoing each others ideas we should be preaching our own. Don't get me wrong, Bytemaster is a smart guy.. one of the smartest in crypto... but there is a reason corporations and governments have checks and balances. Also there is a reason why any decentralized crypto worth its weight should too. He has come up with many great ideas, and this very well could be another one of them, but I would just like everyone to think and come to that conclusion for themselves.

A couple controversial things have happened in recent history that I personally (I know I'm not alone) and others do not agree with. Those things have to do with dilution and altering the social contract. If Bitshares changes its philosophy on these biiiiig issues, then what else will it change its mind on? This is certainly part of the reason for the price swing downwards. It is not the downward pressure from people actually selling dilution awarded shares, but the negative connotation involved with the two major negative-speculative changes to Bitshares.

Whether you agree with this or not.. I do not care.. but it has had some affect on the price and public perception. Whereas I was 100% behind Bitshares before the changes, I am now personally more of a casual observer at this point. Then again.. I don't own very much Bitshares to begin with so whatever you guys decide is up to you. I agree the crypto market in a whole has been a bear market lately, but you can't discount recent events that could have contributed as well. There are several cryptocurrencies that have grown in value since then, and we as a community can only look at ourselves as to the success of the value of the Bitshares token. We are a product of our own success or failure... short of a total Bitcoin collapse... cryptocurrencies are not going anywhere anytime soon.

Trust me, I want good things for Bitshares shareholders.. I just cannot continue to sit back and bite my tongue on some issues. Think for yourselves people, as the saying goes.. more heads are better than one... echoing thoughts and opinions doesn't help anyone... specifically getting Bitshares to where it needs to be. An echo chamber is not what makes successful communities, companies, or currencies. Yes, I have been incredibly hard on Bitshares lately, but that is because I feel like hardly anyone else in this community is, and that is what is required to be successful.

 

I remember being quite surprised by the amount of cheerleading going on through the whole "Vote is gonna be great, now let's dump BTSX" crisis. That particular crisis came at a bad time for me as I was travelling and didn't really have time to devote to the forum to try to add a critical voice, but I wish I had tried harder. I especially regret not standing up more in support of alphaBar who was actually raising a lot of valid points in a reasoned manner, but kept getting shot down and flamed.

While I have no ideological or almost religious attitude towards inflation the way a lot of people appear to have, I too was attracted by the idea of a DAC burning fees and rewarding stakeholders by deflation. I was also attracted by the idea of having multiple DACs complementing and/or competing with each other, and I'm still a little bitter about the U-turn the community made on that concept.

@gamey I'm not sure you'll appreciate any of this but I think our community's reaction to both Adam B. Levine and alphaBar are examples of a tribal, cheerleading mentality that doesn't reflect well on us.

[gamey]

Coinhoarder, what are the biggest areas of group think?  I don't really see it too much but apparently you do, so I am curious about your perception of the community?

[CoinHoarder]

This is how I personally see it... Bitshares is being hypocritical when it now switches from a deflationary cryptocurrency to an inflationary one. Sure, the inflation has been implemented for the "greater good", but it is hard to justify that for me. For months (almost a year) Bitshares has been marketing itself on the point that Bitcoin is diluting its shareholders, and that Bitshares looks at cryptocurrency differently in that it makes a profit for its shareholders by burning fees & being deflationary. I personally was sold on that point and it makes a lot of sense to me. Now, even though the dilution is more controlled (you can only dilute for developers, marketers, etc), it is still dilution and something I.. as a very small shareholder..  have no control over.

You can say the inflation will help with development, advertising, etcera, and for the record I do not think that is incorrect. The problem is Bitshares is trying to live hypocritically when it comes to its stance on dilution. It can be easily argued (just as easily as some have ITT) that Bitcoin dilution compared to its volume has little to no effect on its price in terms of selling all dilution on the market. If Bitshares were valued similarly.. it would be no different in reality.. it too would need hundreds of millions of dollars pouring in yearly to sustain its price.

This is part of the reason I dropped the idea of being a delegate. I feel like there's far too much group think that goes on in this community, and I gave up on pleasing the community to sideline my opinions. Instead of echoing each others ideas we should be preaching our own. Don't get me wrong, Bytemaster is a smart guy.. one of the smartest in crypto... but there is a reason corporations and governments have checks and balances. Also there is a reason why any decentralized crypto worth its weight should too. He has come up with many great ideas, and this very well could be another one of them, but I would just like everyone to think and come to that conclusion for themselves.

A couple controversial things have happened in recent history that I personally (I know I'm not alone) and others do not agree with. Those things have to do with dilution and altering the social contract. If Bitshares changes its philosophy on these biiiiig issues, then what else will it change its mind on? This is certainly part of the reason for the price swing downwards. It is not the downward pressure from people actually selling dilution awarded shares, but the negative connotation involved with the two major negative-speculative changes to Bitshares.

Whether you agree with this or not.. I do not care.. but it has had some affect on the price and public perception. Whereas I was 100% behind Bitshares before the changes, I am now personally more of a casual observer at this point. Then again.. I don't own very much Bitshares to begin with so whatever you guys decide is up to you. I agree the crypto market in a whole has been a bear market lately, but you can't discount recent events that could have contributed as well. There are several cryptocurrencies that have grown in value since then, and we as a community can only look at ourselves as to the success of the value of the Bitshares token. We are a product of our own success or failure... short of a total Bitcoin collapse... cryptocurrencies are not going anywhere anytime soon.

Trust me, I want good things for Bitshares shareholders.. I just cannot continue to sit back and bite my tongue on some issues. Think for yourselves people, as the saying goes.. more heads are better than one... echoing thoughts and opinions doesn't help anyone... specifically getting Bitshares to where it needs to be. An echo chamber is not what makes successful communities, companies, or currencies. Yes, I have been incredibly hard on Bitshares lately, but that is because I feel like hardly anyone else in this community is, and that is what is required to be successful.

[jwiz168]

Just wait until the marketing starts and the Music fundraiser is finished December 6th. Money is coming in to BTS soon. Enjoy this buying opportunity.

I just like it when mentioning money is coming.  Importantly Bitshares put up a legitimate financial platform that is fast and secured with so many assets that can be launched and exchanged.

[donkeypong]

Just wait until the marketing starts and the Music fundraiser is finished December 6th. Money is coming in to BTS soon. Enjoy this buying opportunity.

[eagleeye]

the dominating factor is bitAsset/Asset Exchange/cryptocurrency 2.0

[arhag]

I'm not a trader or anything but I would create a plot that overlays the BTC price of both. Even though BTS is traded BTS/CNY, this market rises and falls in dollar terms on the fortunes of Bitcoin, so they're highly correlated.

Enjoy: http://jsfiddle.net/p4qvLwwp/

Thanks. I would do it from earlier than that though

Not sure why considering that BTSX only started trading at around late July, but it is easy enough to change: http://jsfiddle.net/p4qvLwwp/3/

Edit: I made the tool more useful for comparing the two assets and trying to find correlations (http://jsfiddle.net/p4qvLwwp/4/). It now compares relative changes in the market caps (market caps priced in BTC) between the two assets starting from a date which can be selected by the user.

[Empirical1.1]

I'm not a trader or anything but I would create a plot that overlays the BTC price of both. Even though BTS is traded BTS/CNY, this market rises and falls in dollar terms on the fortunes of Bitcoin, so they're highly correlated.

Enjoy: http://jsfiddle.net/p4qvLwwp/

Thanks. I would do it from earlier than that though It's pretty obvious to me NXT has just been on a long term downtrend. For me the story is we spiked with the release of  BitAssets, then recovered as the initial flaws were improved upon but then entered a downtrend as dilution became a likely reality.

We have been evolving world changing tech at an incredible pace, we've added the DNS DAC value, PTS & Vote too. So just comparing us to NXT is also flawed. Maybe look at XCP, XRP & others. I really think people are just looking at something else in a BTC correlated downtrend to justify the movement.

I don't think we can say when we're rising in BTC, 'high fives guys, this is all us!' And then when we're falling compare ourselves to something else that's falling and say 'See, this has nothing to do with our actions'.

[btswildpig]

There is another factor though , a price ticking point .

If the sell pressure leads the price drop from 0.1CNY to 0.098CNY , then it would lead to more sell pressure in the Chinese market , just like BTC
drop from 300USD to 299 USD , panic occurs . Every major price point got tanked would lead to another chain reaction .

Also ， some big holder and speculators use some technical specs to predict the price movement , if the sell pressure changes one of these specs , like in a rock "W double bottom" , the price should move up according to the theory , but if the sell pressure breaks the "W" graph at this point even just with 1% price drop , then the speculator would not be convinced this is a rock bottom for them , they would sell off and buy cheap later , lead to another downing trend.

[arhag]

I'm not a trader or anything but I would create a plot that overlays the BTC price of both. Even though BTS is traded BTS/CNY, this market rises and falls in dollar terms on the fortunes of Bitcoin, so they're highly correlated.

Enjoy: http://jsfiddle.net/p4qvLwwp/

[CLains]

It's all in your head. Droplet of hype or FUD will cancel all your precious castles.

[Empirical1.1]

How low can we go? I want a (price, required buy volume) curve estimate to know how aggressively it safe to inflate.

Well, last 30 days shows no change due to news, despite all the bad feeling about it expressed on this forum:



Market caps - NXT is red, BTS is green. Notice they're basically the same? This says to me the dominating factor isn't inflation.

I created a nicer plot if you want to compare the price of BTSX vs NXT. They are all priced in USD but I also included BTC (or at least BTC/10000) in the plot for comparison as well. This is over a time period of the last 90 days.

I'm not a trader or anything but I would create a plot that overlays the BTC price of both. Even though BTS is traded BTS/CNY, this market rises and falls in dollar terms on the fortunes of Bitcoin, so they're highly correlated.

When you are rising in BTC terms you are outperforming BTC and are on an uptrend and vice versa imo.

My personal contention is that dilution has played a big role in our change of fortunes, despite the fact it's negligible in practice and many of the marketing and developer delegates will add far more value than they take away. For the record I'll start buying in more again if it keeps falling though.

[Ander]

the scenario that all delegates sell all their paid bts (with this prices) every month is at least ... "science fiction"... please...
(and consider the average payrate for all delegates will be low even in a couple of months....)

I agree. I didnt mean to imply that this would occur.

The reality is that the dilution is very tame, and should have only a small impact, especially if we only have 10 or 20 paid delegates.  Even if they are all selling.

[liondani]

Ok, now how do you estimate how actually adding $x of sell pressure per unit time will affect the price? Can we only inflate and immediately sell as the cap is rising or not?

If you are talking about the effect of one single paid delegate selling all their shares into the market as they get them, the effect is negligible. 

If you are talking about what would happen if 101 full pay delegates all sold all their shares into the market as soon as they got them, then lets take a look:


btc38 has roughly 10 million shares in volume per day.  101 full paid delegates would get 432000 BTS per day.   They would represent ~4% of the daily volume in terms of new sell pressure.  I think that this would be enough to impact the market, but not completely tank it.


Obviously, you get more value for your shares if you dilute when prices are high, during a bull cycle, rather than diluting deep in a bear market.  (I dont think anyone could argue that we are deep in a bear market, even if you think its going to get even worse).

the scenario that all delegates sell all their paid bts (with this prices) every month is at least ... "science fiction"... please...
(and consider the average payrate for all delegates will be low even in a couple of months....)

[arhag]

How low can we go? I want a (price, required buy volume) curve estimate to know how aggressively it safe to inflate.

Well, last 30 days shows no change due to news, despite all the bad feeling about it expressed on this forum:



Market caps - NXT is red, BTS is green. Notice they're basically the same? This says to me the dominating factor isn't inflation.

I created a nicer plot if you want to compare the price of BTSX vs NXT. They are all priced in USD but I also included BTC (or at least BTC/10000) in the plot for comparison as well. This is over a time period of the last 90 days.