That being said, I'm still wondering why the price has dropped since the announcement? Other than "buy the rumor, sell the news" type of answer, is there a logical explanation to the current situation?
Thats actually a pretty logical explanation actually. Its definitely a thing that happens. Look at the coinbase bitcoin pump in January to 300, then crashed as soon as the news actually came out.
Another explanation:
You could also say that after a rise from .02 to .052, this is a perferctly normal correction. A 50% retracement would be pretty normal and that was around .036. We were very close to hitting it exactly.
If you look at the chart for the past several months, it looks like a huge cup and handle. The big decline and rally is the cup, and the recent smaller decline to .036 and rally is the handle. This is very very bullish if we manage to go back up and break to new highs, which I expect to happen eventually.
For the short term, we are still in a corrective pattern waiting for the next rally to get going. Corrections are often in an ABC format (down-up-down). We had the A, the B, and we are in the C, so it could be almost over. (On the other hand, sometimes C drags on a long time, so who knows).
The correction could be about over now (looking like a symmetrical triangle - a triangle with a lower high and a higher low), or take us back to .036 CNY again before finishing (a descending triangle). While triangles are usually continuation patterns, which would indicate it should break up since we are now in an uptrend, descending triangles often break downward. If that happened we would go to around .032, for a .618 fib retracement.
From an elliot wave perspective, the recent move from .0198 to .0527 looks clearly impulsive, that is, its a 5 wave move with strong volume. Wave 3 (the push in mid may up to .04) was largest and had the most volume, which fits. The move ended at .0527. This was a big wave I of a new bull market move in BTS. The fact that it is very clearly an impulse indicates that another move up must follow it. We are currently in wave 2 which is taking a triangle shape as described above. Wave 2s often retrace sharply. A lot of traders dont trust the price rise after such a terrible decline before, so they are quick to bail on the new uptrend. That is what we have to get through now.
A corrective wave often retraces into the area of the previous 4th wave of lower degree. In our case that is the correction on May 22-23rd, from .0408 to .031. We have already dropped into that range so we dont 'need' to fall further. But we could drop as low as .031 and it would still be perfectly normal.
If we manage to fall to the low .03s I would do everything you could to buy there. It would probably be followed by a sharp rise back up and then rally far above the recent .0527 high. Or you could just buy here in the low .04s, the drift lower that we are experiencing could end any time and be followed by a sharp rise.
To summarize, the very strong volume of the recent rise, its sharpness relative to the pace of the recent downtrend (we recovered from .02 to .05 faster than we fell from .05 to .02), and the structure of the rise (three parts, with the strongest buying in the middle), are indicative that it was an impulse wave, and that it "must" be followed by another rise, according to the rules of elliot wave. Our fundamental understanding of bitshares that good things are coming soon supports this view as well. So I would buy as much as you can. The only question is do you buy now, or wait, hoping for a price in the .03s to buy, but possibly risk missing out.
In 2014 at some point we had a marketcap of more than 60-70M$ with a real buggy client and not even half the features that will come up with 2.0.
Was it all only hype and speculation, or is it because Bitshares is seriously undervalued right now?
Probably some of both, plus bitcoin dropped.
Part of it may be because the market hasn't realized yet the potential of Bitshares 2.0 and that all those close to the project are actually already fully invested?
Yes I think so. Those of us who have been here a while mostly bought already, we are buying more when we can of course. We probably have most of the money we are willing to allocate to crypto in already. We need to attract new investors to replace those that panic dumped over the past months. But I think this is happening. BTS had a huge push up indicative of new money coming in. It also attracted some momentum traders who pushed it up higher but are now cashing back out because it stopped rising. We just need to wait out their selling a bit longer and get a bit more new money and we will go up again.
Topic: Bitshares price discussion (Read 1258017 times)
