Author Topic: Prediction Markets now available in GUI  (Read 8595 times)

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Offline Akado

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #45 on: January 28, 2016, 11:01:24 pm »
I'd like to make the interface more suitable for prediction markets but to be honest I'm not sure how it should look like. Anyone have some examples of other binary market interfaces? Or would like to provide some mockups of how they imagine it should look like?

http://financialproreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Capital-Option-affiliates-VIPaffilaites-VIP-Affiliates-binary-options-trading-platform.png

Anyone else like this look? It would make life so much easier for anyone wanting to participate that doesn't have a crypto background?

Never used something like that but seems simple, up or down, potential payout, etc. It immediately gives you the info you need. Complement that with a "help" feature/button and documentation to explain how to do it with more detail and examples and people should get it.

Seems pretty straightforward.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2016, 11:03:06 pm by Akado »
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Offline morpheus

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #46 on: January 29, 2016, 12:45:19 am »
[member=41441]sports-owner[/member]

The PM can also be used as a binary options market.  Some users have requested being able to trade assets such as oil and stock indicies.  Perhaps we could create a few markets for these assets.

For example,

Traditional vanilla options markets are structured and labeled like this:

SPX160331C1900 - where SPX represents the stock index (S&P 500), 160331 represents March 31, 2016, C means it is a call option, and 1900 represents a strike price of 1900 for the option contract


I propose creating the following markets initially:

WTICRUDEOIL123016_4000     -     If the price of WTI CRUDE OIL is above $40.00 on December 30, 2016 17:00 ET, then 1 share of WTICRUDEOIL123016_4000 is worth 1 bts.  I use $40.00 because current futures contracts for the December contract are just under $40. 

SPX123016_187500 - If the price of the S&P 500 is above $1875.00 on December 30, 2016 at 4:00 PM ET, then 1 share of SPX123016_187500 is worth 1 bts.  I use $1875.00 becasue current futures contracts for the December contract are just above $1875.00

Here you are.

http://cryptofresh.com/a/WTICRUDE
http://cryptofresh.com/a/SPFIVE

enjoy

Thanks

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Offline morpheus

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #47 on: January 29, 2016, 12:48:39 am »
I'd like to make the interface more suitable for prediction markets but to be honest I'm not sure how it should look like. Anyone have some examples of other binary market interfaces? Or would like to provide some mockups of how they imagine it should look like?

Augur will be the biggest competitor as far as a decentralized prediction market goes.  They look to have a well thought-out process and design and are well funded.  They have some screenshots on their site.

http://www.augur.net/

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #48 on: January 29, 2016, 01:03:21 am »
I'd like to make the interface more suitable for prediction markets but to be honest I'm not sure how it should look like. Anyone have some examples of other binary market interfaces? Or would like to provide some mockups of how they imagine it should look like?

Augur will be the biggest competitor as far as a decentralized prediction market goes.  They look to have a well thought-out process and design and are well funded.  They have some screenshots on their site.

http://www.augur.net/

if we did anything close to either Augur or the link I posted above, it would be a good direction. Friendly is key!

Offline svk

Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #49 on: January 29, 2016, 06:26:13 am »
Great feedback guys, thanks!
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Offline fav

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #50 on: January 29, 2016, 06:28:34 am »
I'd like to make the interface more suitable for prediction markets but to be honest I'm not sure how it should look like. Anyone have some examples of other binary market interfaces? Or would like to provide some mockups of how they imagine it should look like?

Augur will be the biggest competitor as far as a decentralized prediction market goes.  They look to have a well thought-out process and design and are well funded.  They have some screenshots on their site.

http://www.augur.net/

and you can test the early alpha too

Offline sports-owner

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #51 on: January 30, 2016, 01:29:57 am »
[member=40976]morpheus[/member] Thanks for the attention, and the added liquidity.

[member=602]fuzzy[/member] I sent you some Trump and Clinton PMA's to hand out on twitter.  Hopefully you can get some rabid Trump or Clinton fans to notice us.

Offline puppies

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #52 on: January 30, 2016, 02:40:38 am »
If you want to set the committee as the decider for your PMs.  I'll create the proposals, and vote.  Even better might be the committee-trade account.  It's still owned by the committee, but doesn't have the same level of difficulty to complete as it's currently only a 2 of 4 multi Sig.
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Offline sports-owner

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #53 on: January 30, 2016, 02:47:50 am »
If you want to set the committee as the decider for your PMs.  I'll create the proposals, and vote.  Even better might be the committee-trade account.  It's still owned by the committee, but doesn't have the same level of difficulty to complete as it's currently only a 2 of 4 multi Sig.

I may take you up on that.  the committee trade account is something I hadn't thought of.  That could be the perfect solution.

Offline fuzzy

Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #54 on: January 30, 2016, 05:19:02 pm »
[member=40976]morpheus[/member] Thanks for the attention, and the added liquidity.

[member=602]fuzzy[/member] I sent you some Trump and Clinton PMA's to hand out on twitter.  Hopefully you can get some rabid Trump or Clinton fans to notice us.

can we get a little group to do so? 

also, remember anytime you sharedrop on beyond bitcoin volunteers and attendees, i will do my best to plug your token...unless i find it ridiculous, though hilarious, like (SPERM)...
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Offline Akado

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #55 on: January 30, 2016, 08:47:22 pm »
If you want to set the committee as the decider for your PMs.  I'll create the proposals, and vote.  Even better might be the committee-trade account.  It's still owned by the committee, but doesn't have the same level of difficulty to complete as it's currently only a 2 of 4 multi Sig.

[member=9301]puppies[/member]
Could you create one for "Bitcoin price inferior to $300 American Dollars before the halving?" Idk maybe with a bit more detail like "according to bitstamp" or something like that.



I think that's really the safer method and would set a good precedent. Either do that or allow people to vote for a "Prediction Markets Committee" where people voted in would share the multi signature account and serve as oracles. Don't know if that's over complicating things. I like the idea of using your shared committee account to do that

It will also be awesome to start these markets and tweet about them! People will start to come. Maybe make a thread where people can request what markets they would like to be done and your account would create them, what do you think? Maybe having a prediction markets section for that where we would then have on thread per market where people could discuss about them. The faster we do this the more market share we can grab.

People are impatiently waiting for augur and we can start immediately!
« Last Edit: January 30, 2016, 08:57:54 pm by Akado »
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Offline tonyk

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #56 on: January 30, 2016, 09:13:58 pm »
[member=120]xeroc[/member] should shed some light on how exactly are PM assets reusable? (i.e. what needs to happen/be done before they are reused.
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline svk

Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #57 on: January 30, 2016, 10:27:16 pm »
Fyi i will be revamping the use of the descriptions field for prediction markets to be a serialized json object.

This is similar to how we defined delegate info in BTS 1, only this time the GUI will construct the json for you.

I think expiry, short_name, primary_markets and condition should be included as descriptive fields, what else do you think would be good to have?
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Offline puppies

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #58 on: January 31, 2016, 07:30:05 pm »
[member=40976]morpheus[/member] Thanks for the attention, and the added liquidity.

[member=602]fuzzy[/member] I sent you some Trump and Clinton PMA's to hand out on twitter.  Hopefully you can get some rabid Trump or Clinton fans to notice us.

can we get a little group to do so? 

also, remember anytime you sharedrop on beyond bitcoin volunteers and attendees, i will do my best to plug your token...unless i find it ridiculous, though hilarious, like (SPERM)...
I sent some REPGENSIXTEEN to my twitter sharebits account to help out, but I don't think its shown up yet.  Is the bot deposit function working properly?  Maybe I am just doing something wrong.
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Offline sports-owner

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #59 on: February 01, 2016, 07:19:37 am »
I have set SPORTS.SBLAFC to be resolved by commitee-trade.  I have created a new asset BTSPREDICT in response to https://www.reddit.com/r/BitShares/comments/43iyiq/will_bitshares_hit_12000000_in_market_cap_in/.  BTSPREDICT is to be resolved by the committee-account.  I have also modified WTICRUDE and SPFIVE to be resolved by the committee-account.  We will see which way of resolving works best.