Author Topic: Prediction Markets now available in GUI  (Read 8591 times)

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Offline sports-owner

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Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« on: January 21, 2016, 03:55:12 pm »
You can now take either side of a prediction market in the GUI.

To celebrate I have created two new prediction markets
SPORTS.NFLAFC will track the AFC Championship game.  Short and sell if you believe that Patriots will win.  Buy and hold if you think the Broncos will win.
SPORTS.NFLNFC will track the NFC Championship game.  Short and sell if you believe the Cardinals will win.  Buy and hold if you think Think the Panthers will win.

Offline Empirical1.2

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #1 on: January 21, 2016, 06:31:26 pm »
 +5% Cool.

You might want to explain it in more detail for people that are not familiar with prediction markets and shorting.

If you want to take the island burn the boats

Offline Akado

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #2 on: January 21, 2016, 06:34:56 pm »
For anyone who is interested, there's this tutorial by xeroc
http://docs.bitshares.org/bitshares/user/pm.html
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Offline puppies

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #3 on: January 21, 2016, 10:04:14 pm »
I settled my test prediction market asset in the GUI today.  It worked, but the fee to settle is 200bts. 
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Offline Akado

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #4 on: January 21, 2016, 10:24:12 pm »
I settled my test prediction market asset in the GUI today.  It worked, but the fee to settle is 200bts.

Isn't that a little too high? Why 200?
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Offline puppies

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #5 on: January 21, 2016, 10:34:29 pm »
I definitely think its too high.  The problem is that its the same operation as force settling any other bitasset.  Some may not want to lower the fee for fear that more people will force settle.

What does everyone else think?
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Offline abit

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #6 on: January 22, 2016, 12:27:08 am »
I definitely think its too high.  The problem is that its the same operation as force settling any other bitasset.  Some may not want to lower the fee for fear that more people will force settle.

What does everyone else think?
Aren't you a LTM?
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Offline morpheus

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #7 on: January 22, 2016, 01:06:30 am »
I try to borrow and get the message:

No valid feeds for SPORTS.NFLNFC

edit:  works with firefox, not with chrome
« Last Edit: January 22, 2016, 01:29:55 am by morpheus »

Offline puppies

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #8 on: January 22, 2016, 01:11:42 am »
I definitely think its too high.  The problem is that its the same operation as force settling any other bitasset.  Some may not want to lower the fee for fear that more people will force settle.

What does everyone else think?
Aren't you a LTM?

Yes.  40bts is not too bad.  I am also making PM purchases of 1000 plus bts so its a small fee if the PM ends up true. 

I think this fee is too large to help us get traction with our PM feature.  It is too high to build a business around. 
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Offline Riverhead

Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #9 on: January 22, 2016, 01:15:23 am »
For anyone who is interested, there's this tutorial by xeroc
http://docs.bitshares.org/bitshares/user/pm.html

Thanks for that :). Go Piggers!

Offline Chronos

Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #10 on: January 22, 2016, 03:35:31 am »
This is revolutionary.

One question. From the docs:

Quote
Since PM-Assets can technically be pegged by any other asset, you may need to pay USD (or anything else) instead of BTS.
However, the asset is still backed by BTS, correct? So, in a rising BTS market, winners stand to gain more than they would in a falling BTS market?

Offline sports-owner

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #11 on: January 22, 2016, 06:13:51 am »
This is revolutionary.

One question. From the docs:

Quote
Since PM-Assets can technically be pegged by any other asset, you may need to pay USD (or anything else) instead of BTS.
However, the asset is still backed by BTS, correct? So, in a rising BTS market, winners stand to gain more than they would in a falling BTS market?

You are 100% correct in challenging the efficacy of prediction markets with a bts base.  Sadly there are no sub markets that are currently liquid enough to use.  With todays news I am thinking my next market may be openUSD based.  If there is enough traffic this could solve some of our problems.

Offline tbone

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #12 on: January 22, 2016, 06:18:12 am »
I definitely think its too high.  The problem is that its the same operation as force settling any other bitasset.  Some may not want to lower the fee for fear that more people will force settle.

What does everyone else think?
Aren't you a LTM?

Yes.  40bts is not too bad.  I am also making PM purchases of 1000 plus bts so its a small fee if the PM ends up true. 

I think this fee is too large to help us get traction with our PM feature.  It is too high to build a business around.

Currently 200 BTS is only 60 cents ($0.60).  The problem is what happens when the price of BTS goes much higher?    In general, we need to stop setting fees in BTS and instead set them in something stable, probably either BitUSD or BitCNY.  This is why I think the initiative to move towards percentage-based transfer fees is so important.  You can't have fees that vary based on the changing value of BTS.  Businesses can't build around that.

Offline Chronos

Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #13 on: January 22, 2016, 05:38:52 pm »
BTS fees can easily be adjusted by the committee, to keep up with changes in underlying value.

Offline BunkerChainLabs-DataSecurityNode

Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #14 on: January 22, 2016, 07:01:48 pm »
BTS fees can easily be adjusted by the committee, to keep up with changes in underlying value.

Trust me.. there is nothing 'easy' about adjusting fees in the Committee. We just currently make it look that way! :)
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