"its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability"

[speedy]

Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.

How it makes it likely (to say nothing about, 'very likely' - whatever the term means).
What is the logic -'Cause it usually happens like that?'

Well this is what many people expect, and they have a fair point. All Ive heard so far in response is that people just "hope" its not going to happen.

[tonyk]

Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.

How it makes it likely (to say nothing about, 'very likely' - whatever the term means).
What is the logic -'Cause it usually happens like that?'

[speedy]

Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.

[oldman]

And it has not been stable, its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability rather than some unforeseen event.

Bitcoin ran from less than a penny to north of $1k in five years in a very under-capitalized market with a very small fiat-crypto pipeline.

There is now a few billion in very mobile crypto-equity available to invest in the next big thing.

BTSX is the next big thing. Each cryptive (crypto-derivative... clever, no?) requires BTSX backing. We are looking at multiples on multiples. bitUSD, bitCNY, bitGLD, bitSLV... then bitGOOG, bitAPPL.

The velocity of crypto-equity is unprecedented. BTSX could potentially hit a market cap of several billion in the next few months... and that would just be getting started.

[luckybit]

Regarding the collateral requirements, what is the response to this fair point from someone on bter.com:

And it has not been stable, its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability rather than some unforeseen event.

This seems to be the biggest argument for why the market peg wont work.

Pullback into what? BitUSD?
BitUSD is all we really need now. It's better than Bitcoin in every measure and it's better than the dollar.

Maybe to pay bills people will cash out into dollars or taxes.

[donkeypong]

A little volatility won't hurt the market peg. BitUSD will still be stable, relative to the current price of BTSX, since traders on both sides should ensure a robust market.

[speedy]

50% pullback over how long? 1 hour? That's fine...

So is the point that if the 50% pullback is an hour or longer, then there will be enough time to force the shorter to cover i.e. a margin call. That's the point right?

[toast]

50% pullback over how long? 1 hour? That's fine...

[cygnify]

Its not up 1000% in a week for starters. Closer to 400%

[speedy]

Regarding the collateral requirements, what is the response to this fair point from someone on bter.com:

And it has not been stable, its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability rather than some unforeseen event.

This seems to be the biggest argument for why the market peg wont work.