Author Topic: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00  (Read 18591 times)

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Offline bitmeat

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Given the fact that people were shorting BITUSD to their heart content (mostly due to bullish on BTSX) without a corresponding stop loss order, their effective "stops" were near the margin call range. So for a big BTSX holder, wanting to buy cheap, it is much easier to trigger a short squeeze or a "stop hunt" by triggering a big sell on some exchanges (arb working out the rest). Something similar happens even in the forex markets. You target a lower end where the stops are to actually buy on a bounce rather than chase the market towards the top.
That is quite some strategy bitmeat, I guess you were into forex trading before all this? And the market liquidity provides much more opportunity here, than what it did in forex, eh?

That said, I have to disagree with the assertion you made in the op. Forex is a rather liquid market and has been running for years (and many gullible traders being pulled in for the 5% a day return promises). While BTSX has some great achievements like the BITUSD, I think retail or small level businesses picking it up is very far off. It will take some real great marketing campaign to actually achieve it. For now I think we will remain in a bit of a range before the actual breakoff comes around.

I didn't say it will go there in a day. I'm pointing out that there is a $2B target market, which is not unreasonable at all.

Yes, I worked with a hedge fund and did automated trading systems for them for about 2.5 years.

EDIT: Given that FOREX brokers are not regulated and hard to trust, BitShares might be a good, more transparent solution.

Also even big and stable brokerages can fail - look up the RefCo fiasco.
« Last Edit: August 30, 2014, 07:45:32 am by bitmeat »

Offline changematey

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Given the fact that people were shorting BITUSD to their heart content (mostly due to bullish on BTSX) without a corresponding stop loss order, their effective "stops" were near the margin call range. So for a big BTSX holder, wanting to buy cheap, it is much easier to trigger a short squeeze or a "stop hunt" by triggering a big sell on some exchanges (arb working out the rest). Something similar happens even in the forex markets. You target a lower end where the stops are to actually buy on a bounce rather than chase the market towards the top.
That is quite some strategy bitmeat, I guess you were into forex trading before all this? And the market liquidity provides much more opportunity here, than what it did in forex, eh?

That said, I have to disagree with the assertion you made in the op. Forex is a rather liquid market and has been running for years (and many gullible traders being pulled in for the 5% a day return promises). While BTSX has some great achievements like the BITUSD, I think retail or small level businesses picking it up is very far off. It will take some real great marketing campaign to actually achieve it. For now I think we will remain in a bit of a range before the actual breakoff comes around.

Offline Riverhead

Alt wrote a python tool set which includes feed automation. I have it running and it poles bter, Yahoo, and btc38 every 30 seconds. If the value has changed by more than 5% it'll update that feed. It's pretty slick. There's no reason why any delegate should be manually maintaining feeds.

Offline bitmeat

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It did get to that price but I didn't see BitUSD near 30 BTSX though.

Mind explaining your thought process and what you predict will happen next?
Also, what is your personal opinion about the markets pegs, will they hold and why?

Once shorts are disabled for price below median from delegate's feed data, it should work beautifully.

Was originally opposed to, but I am now really liking Agent86's proposal, it is elegant and should be easy to implement.

Delegates will need to publish feed data more often. But that's fine, because we will now have one more way to measure a delegate's quality.

Offline jae208

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It did get to that price but I didn't see BitUSD near 30 BTSX though.

Mind explaining your thought process and what you predict will happen next?
Also, what is your personal opinion about the markets pegs, will they hold and why?

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Offline toast

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The price has already been below what you predicted. Last night it was as low as $0.023

But it did get to it, did it not?

As a side note... I wasn't paying attention, was there finally a bit of a short squeeze?

Can confirm some margins were munched

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Offline bitmeat

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The price has already been below what you predicted. Last night it was as low as $0.023

But it did get to it, did it not?

As a side note... I wasn't paying attention, was there finally a bit of a short squeeze?

Offline jae208

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The price has already been below what you predicted. Last night it was as low as $0.023
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Offline bitmeat

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You sir, are Nostradamus. +5% When do you think the market will pick up after this margin call?

I would not go that far, however it is worth noting that I bought some at the lowest it ever traded on BTER and called it out before hand as well.

I believe the price was 0.00001252, it was however a small amount.
« Last Edit: August 30, 2014, 04:24:44 am by bitmeat »

Offline cygnify

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We haven't dropped low enough yet, because bitUSD still aint moving down, no danger of margin calls yet.

Offline Maximus0352

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And there it is! :) Boom goes the dynamite. :)

You sir, are Nostradamus. +5% When do you think the market will pick up after this margin call?

Offline bitmeat

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Offline bodenliu

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There is no incentive to buy BitUSD. If you think the price of BTSX is going to go down you are better off selling into BTC or real USD.

Here is what I think will happen:

People are using shorts to bet big that BTSX will go up in price. They are idiots, because by doing so they are breaking the market peg (or at least making it very innacurate). As a result of this the price of BTSX will innevitably go down, because it appears to outside observers that it isn't working very well, and BitAssets are pretty much the whole story in terms of getting new people interested at in Bitshares at the moment. The shorts will eventually get that the price of BTSX is in decline, or the system will force their hand with margin calls. BitUSD will reach parity with USD, and stupid bulls will take this as a reason to bet big again and break it again.

This will keep happening over and over, and the price of BTSX will keep going down, until all the stupid people have lost all their money. That could take a very long time.

damn right

Offline CLains

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Super confused:I am more interested in price stability than USD per se. I want "risk-free" funds, and the higher the interest the better. What is the interest rate of bitUSD perfectly tracking the dollar in BitShares X? We don't know!

But if we let the market decide interest rate of bitUSD it will likely change continually.. If it changes continually, what happens to the holders of bitUSD? Could they get the interest rate established by the market? If not, what do we do with the endless variety of bitUSDs that have different interest rates?
« Last Edit: August 28, 2014, 02:27:07 pm by CLains »

Offline bitmeat

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Yes, it's early days. Not sure if it tracks USD well at the moment, but looks like liquidity has improved.