Author Topic: Dan Larimer - Your thoughts on what's happening to Bitcoin right now  (Read 20063 times)

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Offline CoinHoarder

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Offline oldman

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I'm not a Larimer, but I read a good theory yesterday. Basically.. the Alibaba IPO is sucking money out of the ecosystem. A lot of the price support has been coming from China, and they are mostly interested in getting a piece of one of China's biggest and most successful companies. If one of our bilingual friends from China could weigh in on this theory, I would appreciate it.

http://bitcoinmagazine.com/16481/bitcoin-price-dropped-today/

No.

With all due respect, of course.

Edit: http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2grvkh/correcting_a_few_bear_misconceptions_who_is/

I didn't mean to make it seem as if that's the only reason, as there are many dynamics that affect the price. I think that must of affected the price at least a little in the past week(s).

Apologies, did not mean to call you out personally.

I find these sorts of rationalizations silly and tire quickly of them being circulated.

Old and grumpy...  ;D

Offline oldman

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Anyone cashing out a significant number of coins is will do so off-market/OTC.

Theories that rationalize the price drop as large holders cashing out on-market do not hold water.

No one with enough wherewithal to accumulate thousands of coins is going to use exchanges to liquidate.

The slippage and security issues are a non-starter.

The price is dropping because folks are acquiring larger amounts of coins off-market and, very reasonably, dropping the price via the exchanges to facilitate accumulation.

Ironically, the good news of the last few months may be the reason for the drop.

Bigger money is now taking the tech seriously and that means folks are going to want open positions.

This is the way smart money opens a position.

Has the protocol failed? No.

Has a government announced a ban? No.

Is adoption decreasing? No.

Is VC investment decreasing? No.

Are adoption, VC investment and transactions increasing? Yes.

Hmmm...
« Last Edit: September 19, 2014, 08:39:05 pm by OldMan »

Offline CoinHoarder

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If the Willy report is true, which is not clear to me, then the last 2 bubbles where fuelled in part by fake demand.  If you look at the long term log chat, there was an increase in the rate of price increase during the last two bubbles, which could have been caused by Willy if it was really happening.  Therefore if the Willy report was true, then we could correct down to the rate of increase that was present before the bubbles, which would put the current bitcoin price at around $200, and the price may not recover quickly. 

If the Willy report isn't true then bitcoin is dead cheap and I'm long term bullish.

My guess is that Willy isn't true.  After all wouldn't something like that have been discovered by law enforcement and have been confirmed?  In which case there are many possible explanations for the current 'dip/crash' (Alibaba, ethereum cash out, traders giving up on bubble hopes, manipulation, simply not enough buyers, merchant sales) , but I am prepared for further downward movement just in case.  I bought my first BTSX today.  I'm still learning about it but it looks promising so far.

Hey Matt,

I didn't know you were around here in Bitsharesland.. Hi!  :)

I guess I'm living under a rock.. I've never heard of the Willy report.
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Offline CoinHoarder

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I'm not a Larimer, but I read a good theory yesterday. Basically.. the Alibaba IPO is sucking money out of the ecosystem. A lot of the price support has been coming from China, and they are mostly interested in getting a piece of one of China's biggest and most successful companies. If one of our bilingual friends from China could weigh in on this theory, I would appreciate it.

http://bitcoinmagazine.com/16481/bitcoin-price-dropped-today/

No.

With all due respect, of course.

Edit: http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2grvkh/correcting_a_few_bear_misconceptions_who_is/

I didn't mean to make it seem as if that's the only reason, as there are many dynamics that affect the price. I think that must of affected the price at least a little in the past week(s).
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Offline matt608

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If the Willy report is true, which is not clear to me, then the last 2 bubbles where fuelled in part by fake demand.  If you look at the long term log chat, there was an increase in the rate of price increase during the last two bubbles, which could have been caused by Willy if it was really happening.  Therefore if the Willy report was true, then we could correct down to the rate of increase that was present before the bubbles, which would put the current bitcoin price at around $200, and the price may not recover quickly. 

If the Willy report isn't true then bitcoin is dead cheap and I'm long term bullish.

My guess is that Willy isn't true.  After all wouldn't something like that have been discovered by law enforcement and have been confirmed?  In which case there are many possible explanations for the current 'dip/crash' (Alibaba, ethereum cash out, traders giving up on bubble hopes, manipulation, simply not enough buyers, merchant sales) , but I am prepared for further downward movement just in case.  I bought my first BTSX today.  I'm still learning about it but it looks promising so far.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2014, 08:26:53 pm by matt608 »

Offline donkeypong

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Perhaps it's a confluence of factors. Another factor might be that the markets were awaiting this Scotland vote, since a 'yes' would have assured some fresh instability from Glasgow to Catalonia to Quebec. Scottish independence going down so handily certainly threw some cold water on those parties. Bitcoin, like gold, has been acting as a bit of a hedge, and perhaps people were more hedged into than we knew. Now, nobody wants to miss the stock market rallies that should follow this collective 'breath of relief' for the world financial system.

Offline Shentist

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Dear Mr. Larimer,

I would like your take on what's currently happening to the price of Bitcoin and where you think it's headed or will you discuss this in the Beyond Bitcoin Hangout, thanks

-bluebit

more sellers than buyers - point!

no one , no one can tell you more because the pressure at the moment is on more crypto markets then only BTC.

Offline oldman

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Dear Mr. Larimer,

I would like your take on what's currently happening to the price of Bitcoin and where you think it's headed or will you discuss this in the Beyond Bitcoin Hangout, thanks

-bluebit

I'm not a Larimer, but I read a good theory yesterday. Basically.. the Alibaba IPO is sucking money out of the ecosystem. A lot of the price support has been coming from China, and they are mostly interested in getting a piece of one of China's biggest and most successful companies. If one of our bilingual friends from China could weigh in on this theory, I would appreciate it.

http://bitcoinmagazine.com/16481/bitcoin-price-dropped-today/

No.

With all due respect, of course.

Edit: http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2grvkh/correcting_a_few_bear_misconceptions_who_is/


« Last Edit: September 19, 2014, 07:52:18 pm by OldMan »

Offline eagleeye

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I'm not a Larimer, but I read a good theory yesterday. Basically.. the Alibaba IPO is sucking money out of the ecosystem. A lot of the price support has been coming from China, and they are mostly interested in getting a piece of one of China's biggest and most successful companies. If one of our bilingual friends from China could weigh in on this theory, I would appreciate it.

http://bitcoinmagazine.com/16481/bitcoin-price-dropped-today/

It wouldn't be easy for a normal Chinese guy to buy Alibaba stock from NYSE.

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Any Hong Kong Brokerage would probably allow you to do it.

Offline luckybit

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Dear Mr. Larimer,

I would like your take on what's currently happening to the price of Bitcoin and where you think it's headed or will you discuss this in the Beyond Bitcoin Hangout, thanks

-bluebit

Maybe you should buy BitUSD so you can lock in your profits.

What I know about Bitcoin (I'm not Dan but I'll give my take) is that some hacker has hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins from MtGox hack. It's easy to manipulate the market with hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins.
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Offline dipplum

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I'm not a Larimer, but I read a good theory yesterday. Basically.. the Alibaba IPO is sucking money out of the ecosystem. A lot of the price support has been coming from China, and they are mostly interested in getting a piece of one of China's biggest and most successful companies. If one of our bilingual friends from China could weigh in on this theory, I would appreciate it.

http://bitcoinmagazine.com/16481/bitcoin-price-dropped-today/

It wouldn't be easy for a normal Chinese guy to buy Alibaba stock from NYSE.

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk


Offline CoinHoarder

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I'm not a Larimer, but I read a good theory yesterday. Basically.. the Alibaba IPO is sucking money out of the ecosystem. A lot of the price support has been coming from China, and they are mostly interested in getting a piece of one of China's biggest and most successful companies. If one of our bilingual friends from China could weigh in on this theory, I would appreciate it.

http://bitcoinmagazine.com/16481/bitcoin-price-dropped-today/

well,Alibaba IPO is sucking money from the Americans......Chinese can't buy American stock even if they want to ....
 :P

Anyone in the world can buy American stock on the NYSE or NASDAQ.

Maybe there is some silly law, regulation, or restriction that makes it challenging to do so.
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Offline tonyk

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Dear Mr. Larimer,

I would like your take on what's currently happening to the price of Bitcoin and where you think it's headed or will you discuss this in the Beyond Bitcoin Hangout, thanks

-bluebit
 
Why do you think he has to have an opinion on that?

Dear tonyk: I just love how you're always so needlessly confrontational. In this instance, is it because you think BM is unable to protect his own time, and if you berate bluebit for asking a totally legitimate question (that most of us, I'm sure, would love an answer to), somehow you'll keep BM from answering?

Is it because your name wasn't on this thread yet and in your self-aggrandizing manner you couldn't help interjecting something unnecessarily aggressive?

Or maybe it's just that bluebit is on your extensive list of forum members that you personally dislike.

In any case, as you can see from this post, I'm a big fan of your style of turning potentially useful threads into pointless tangential arguments.

Sincerely, biophil

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Sure next time I will ask for permission to speak, first, Sir!
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.