Author Topic: Dan Larimer - Your thoughts on what's happening to Bitcoin right now  (Read 17129 times)

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Offline lakerta06

I just want to add my two bits on the tax issue, with a real world example.

Disclaimer: I am not a tax expert.


Any gamer here knows or heard about diablo3 and its in game market I think. And it also had the real money option. You could buy/sell game items for real money or in game gold.

There were lots of bots, scanning the market and placing buy/sell orders for in game gold. With the aim of increasing their total in game gold, so they can sell it for real money.

To my knowledge, there is not a case of taxation for "in game gold/in game item" trades. So why should BitAsset/BTSX trades be taxable? (Unless BTSX counts as "money")

Then again, I am no tax expert.

Offline tonyk

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Interesting. Maybe I am just pessimistic, but I find it hard to believe the IRS will look at BitAssets in this way.

But let us assume BitAssets on a blockchain are all just different representations of a variable amount of BTSX. Can you people lucky enough to have in-house tax experts answer the following question: how would capital gains taxes work when you actually convert to fiat or real goods/services outside of the blockchain? If I buy x BTSX at price p1, do some shorting, trade for some BitAssets, then later trade back to BTSX, and now I have y BTSX at price p2 and I want to convert z of the y BTSX into dollars, how do I figure out my cost basis (I imagine it depends on the exact history of trades I have done)? Also, that means I have to now worry about a cost basis of BitUSD as well correct? So I buy BTSX at price p1, it appreciates in value to price p2, now I convert all of it at price p2 to BitUSD. Under the assumptions you are all making, that conversion would not be a taxable event. But if I later spend that BitUSD on goods/services, that is a taxable event and I would have to pay some capital gains taxes since I obtained that BitUSD with far less value than its nominal value, correct? Honestly, this all sounds more confusing than just treating the BitAsset trades as taxable events.
I had (and kind of still do have) similar understanding as you. Their interpretation makes as much sense as ours, though... and theirs results, in most cases, in less taxes (at least in the short run, aka while we are alive), so I am fine with it.  :)
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline arhag

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Interesting. Maybe I am just pessimistic, but I find it hard to believe the IRS will look at BitAssets in this way.

But let us assume BitAssets on a blockchain are all just different representations of a variable amount of BTSX. Can you people lucky enough to have in-house tax experts answer the following question: how would capital gains taxes work when you actually convert to fiat or real goods/services outside of the blockchain? If I buy x BTSX at price p1, do some shorting, trade for some BitAssets, then later trade back to BTSX, and now I have y BTSX at price p2 and I want to convert z of the y BTSX into dollars, how do I figure out my cost basis (I imagine it depends on the exact history of trades I have done)? Also, that means I have to now worry about a cost basis of BitUSD as well correct? So I buy BTSX at price p1, it appreciates in value to price p2, now I convert all of it at price p2 to BitUSD. Under the assumptions you are all making, that conversion would not be a taxable event. But if I later spend that BitUSD on goods/services, that is a taxable event and I would have to pay some capital gains taxes since I obtained that BitUSD with far less value than its nominal value, correct? Honestly, this all sounds more confusing than just treating the BitAsset trades as taxable events.

Offline oldman

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This is my grandfather's hatchet.

My father replaced the handle and I replaced the blade.

Is this my grandfather's hatchet?

Offline tonyk

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Hmm... my in house tax expert, seems to agree with you and my more conservative reading of the law seems incorrect...'the taxable event is indeed the conversion to cash it seems'... Good news generally!

Different metaphors are useful at different times. 
The "shares in a company" metaphor is great for explaining what's wrong with first generation crypto.

But reverting to the "coin that contains an exchange that allows you to customize the coin's performance" metaphor is easier to explain to the tax man.  It's just a tunable asset that you buy, hold, tune, hold, tune, hold and sell.  A black box that you buy and sell from the tax perspective.  Who cares whether the inner workings of a "smart coin" are driven by a full featured market simulation or a bunch of monkeys hammering away on keyboards?  Most people don't know or care how most things they use every day actually work.  They don't have a need to know.

Isn't that exactly what you got when you bought Apple and held it while Steve Jobs came and went and came again?  The shares you owned had variable performance as the internal workings of the company were reconfigured behind the scenes.  You paid taxes on the integral growth over time based on change in value.  So we should view the internal exchange as simply changing the settings on what mix of external assets you want your BTSX to mimic. 

Thus, for tax purposes and marketing to certain demographics, the "BTSX Smart Coin" metaphor may be more useful than the unmanned company metaphor.

A sand bag can be sold as a water dam component, a road de-icer, or a cat porta-potty.
You just have to know how to describe it appropriately for each potential customer.   :)

Profound Insight Alert.

You can change metaphors by simply changing skins on your wallet!

We already have "simple" and "advanced" skins for the current client.
Now imagine one with nothing but smart coin dials that control your asset mix, automating all the buy/sell details for you.

"Why, my wallet contains a bunch of smart coins that collectively track a basket of currencies I specified by clicking on a pie chart." 

Suppose that particular skin is what you used exclusively.
What tax report would you expect it to spit out?

2030:  I am still holding those same BTSX, I bought/recieved in 2014?
« Last Edit: September 26, 2014, 04:27:13 am by tonyk »
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline Stan

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Hmm... my in house tax expert, seems to agree with you and my more conservative reading of the law seems incorrect...'the taxable event is indeed the conversion to cash it seems'... Good news generally!

Different metaphors are useful at different times. 
The "shares in a company" metaphor is great for explaining what's wrong with first generation crypto.

But reverting to the "coin that contains an exchange that allows you to customize the coin's performance" metaphor is easier to explain to the tax man.  It's just a tunable asset that you buy, hold, tune, hold, tune, hold and sell.  A black box that you buy and sell from the tax perspective.  Who cares whether the inner workings of a "smart coin" are driven by a full featured market simulation or a bunch of monkeys hammering away on keyboards?  Most people don't know or care how most things they use every day actually work.  They don't have a need to know.

Isn't that exactly what you got when you bought Apple and held it while Steve Jobs came and went and came again?  The shares you owned had variable performance as the internal workings of the company were reconfigured behind the scenes.  You paid taxes on the integral growth over time based on change in value.  So we should view the internal exchange as simply changing the settings on what mix of external assets you want your BTSX to mimic. 

Thus, for tax purposes and marketing to certain demographics, the "BTSX Smart Coin" metaphor may be more useful than the unmanned company metaphor.

A sand bag can be sold as a water dam component, a road de-icer, or a cat porta-potty.
You just have to know how to describe it appropriately for each potential customer.   :)

Profound Insight Alert.

You can change metaphors by simply changing skins on your wallet!

We already have "simple" and "advanced" skins for the current client.
Now imagine one with nothing but smart coin dials that control your asset mix, automating all the buy/sell details for you.

"Why, my wallet contains a bunch of smart coins that collectively track a basket of currencies I specified by clicking on a pie chart." 

Suppose that particular skin is what you used exclusively.
What tax report would you expect it to spit out?




« Last Edit: September 26, 2014, 04:12:09 am by Stan »
Anything said on these forums does not constitute an intent to create a legal obligation or contract of any kind.   These are merely my opinions which I reserve the right to change at any time.

Offline donkeypong

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Hmm... my in house tax expert, seems to agree with you and my more conservative reading of the law seems incorrect...'the taxable event is indeed the conversion to cash it seems'... Good news generally!

Isn't it nice to have an in-house accountant? My brain turns off whenever I have to think about taxes, so I went ahead and married an expert.

Offline tonyk

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Hmm... my in house tax expert, seems to agree with you and my more conservative reading of the law seems incorrect...'the taxable event is indeed the conversion to cash it seems'... Good news generally!

Different metaphors are useful at different times. 
The "shares in a company" metaphor is great for explaining what's wrong with first generation crypto.

But reverting to the "coin that contains an exchange that allows you to customize the coin's performance" metaphor is easier to explain to the tax man.  It's just a tunable asset that you buy, hold, tune, hold, tune, hold and sell.  A black box that you buy and sell from the tax perspective.

Isn't that exactly what you got when you bought Apple and held it while Steve Jobs came and went and came again?  The shares you owned had variable performance.  You paid taxes on the integral growth over time based on change in value.  So we should view the internal exchange as simply changing the settings on what mix of external assets you want your BTSX to mimic. 

Thus, for tax purposes and marketing to certain demographics, the "BTSX Smart Coin" metaphor may be more useful than the unmanned company metaphor.

A sand bag can be sold as a water dam component, a road de-icer, or a cat porta-potty.
You just have to know how to describe it appropriately for each potential customer.   :)

I like your thinking...
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline Stan

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Hmm... my in house tax expert, seems to agree with you and my more conservative reading of the law seems incorrect...'the taxable event is indeed the conversion to cash it seems'... Good news generally!

Different metaphors are useful at different times. 
The "shares in a company" metaphor is great for explaining what's wrong with first generation crypto.

But reverting to the "coin that contains an exchange that allows you to customize the coin's performance" metaphor is easier to explain to the tax man.  It's just a tunable asset that you buy, hold, tune, hold, tune, hold and sell.  A black box that you buy and sell from the tax perspective.  Who cares whether the inner workings of a "smart coin" are driven by a full featured market simulation or a bunch of monkeys hammering away on keyboards?  Most people don't know or care how most things they use every day actually work.  They don't have a need to know.

Isn't that exactly what you got when you bought Apple and held it while Steve Jobs came and went and came again?  The shares you owned had variable performance as the internal workings of the company were reconfigured behind the scenes.  You paid taxes on the integral growth over time based on change in value.  So we should view the internal exchange as simply changing the settings on what mix of external assets you want your BTSX to mimic. 

Thus, for tax purposes and marketing to certain demographics, the "BTSX Smart Coin" metaphor may be more useful than the unmanned company metaphor.

A sand bag can be sold as a water dam component, a road de-icer, or a cat porta-potty.
You just have to know how to describe it appropriately for each potential customer.   :)

« Last Edit: September 26, 2014, 03:49:54 am by Stan »
Anything said on these forums does not constitute an intent to create a legal obligation or contract of any kind.   These are merely my opinions which I reserve the right to change at any time.

Offline tonyk

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Hmm... my in house tax expert, seems to agree with you and my more conservative reading of the law seems incorrect...'the taxable event is indeed the conversion to cash it seems'... Good news generally!
« Last Edit: September 26, 2014, 03:07:52 am by tonyk »
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline donkeypong

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There needs to be a way for the average joe to be able to earn coins without having to use an exchange. POW has clearly failed here and bitshares-x is even worse in this regard. Safecoin seems to me, the next best thing in terms of giving everyone a chance to earn coin without needing to buy it.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qpyT6VpdBMQ&list=UUhDck5R_C9i6XTrS66tbwOw
http://maidsafe.net/SystemDocs/user_perspective/farmers.html

I think that's exactly what you're going to see here pretty soon. Remember, BTSX is still in beta. I'd say it's already better in most regards.

Offline hamiltino

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There needs to be a way for the average joe to be able to earn coins without having to use an exchange. POW has clearly failed here and bitshares-x is even worse in this regard. Safecoin seems to me, the next best thing in terms of giving everyone a chance to earn coin without needing to buy in.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qpyT6VpdBMQ&list=UUhDck5R_C9i6XTrS66tbwOw
http://maidsafe.net/SystemDocs/user_perspective/farmers.html
« Last Edit: September 26, 2014, 02:16:46 am by hamiltino »

Offline tonyk

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What about the wash rule? How does that compete with 1031? Or are loses a whole different bag?

The US Tax rules  system is far more complicated than BTSX... if you really want some questions answered, maybe I and the real world tax expert (aka ToniK ) can try to answer some of them for you in Vegas, for free of course....  ;)

Looking forward to it :) .

http://www.irs.gov/publications/p550/ch04.html#en_US_2013_publink100010601

And here's the kicker:
Code: [Select]
If your loss was disallowed because of the wash sale rules, add the disallowed loss to the cost of the new stock or securities (except in (4) above). The result is your basis in the new stock or securities. This adjustment postpones the loss deduction until the disposition of the new stock or securities. Your holding period for the new stock or securities includes the holding period of the stock or securities sold.

I do not know exactly what you mean (one of the reasons I think those things are better discussed in person, as opposed to on forums). But in most cases you will be better off, if your losses are reducing your capital gains in the same year, as opposed to being added to the bases of newly acquired assets.

[edit] For corner cases the rule might be beneficial. I think I agree.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2014, 04:36:34 am by tonyk »
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline Riverhead

What about the wash rule? How does that compete with 1031? Or are loses a whole different bag?

The US Tax rules  system is far more complicated than BTSX... if you really want some questions answered, maybe I and the real world tax expert (aka ToniK ) can try to answer some of them for you in Vegas, for free of course....  ;)

Looking forward to it :) .

http://www.irs.gov/publications/p550/ch04.html#en_US_2013_publink100010601

And here's the kicker:
Code: [Select]
If your loss was disallowed because of the wash sale rules, add the disallowed loss to the cost of the new stock or securities (except in (4) above). The result is your basis in the new stock or securities. This adjustment postpones the loss deduction until the disposition of the new stock or securities. Your holding period for the new stock or securities includes the holding period of the stock or securities sold.

« Last Edit: September 25, 2014, 04:03:05 am by Riverhead »

Offline tonyk

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What about the wash rule? How does that compete with 1031? Or are loses a whole different bag?

The US Tax rules  system is far more complicated than BTSX... if you really want some questions answered, maybe I and the real world tax expert (aka ToniK ) can try to answer some of them for you in Vegas, for free of course, and without the need to say 'that this is not tax advice'....  ;)
« Last Edit: September 25, 2014, 03:59:19 am by tonyk »
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline Riverhead

What about the wash rule? How does that compete with 1031? Or are loses a whole different bag?

Offline tonyk

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If BTC went up x 10 I bet a ton of traders would hedge against it crashing by buying bitassets such as bitUSD, that way they wouldn't have to pay capital gains tax like they would if they went into fiat as no gain would have been realised.

That reminds me that I have to research that personally... For other assets you must buy substantially the same asset to avoid paying the tax in that particular year... and IRS is not known to give easy exemption benefiting the taxpayer...

Buy BitBTC.... substantially the same....

If you trade Apple Shares vs Google Shares then no capital gains tax is due (like kind exchange).
If you trade a house on the beach for a house in the mountains then no capital gains tax is due.
If you trade crypto vs crypto then no capital gains tax is due.

I am not a tax lawyer... but I play one on TV.   ie: I could wrong.

OK, you tax experts, here's a thought experiment:

I buy a bunch of BTSX.
I fiddle with the internal settings* to make that bunch of BTSX look like some mix of bitAssets.
I fiddle with the internal settings* to make that mix of bitAssets look like some other mix of bitAssets.
I fiddle with the internal settings* to make that mix of bitAssets look like some other other mix of bitAssets.
I fiddle with the internal settings* to make that mix of bitAssets look like a new bunch of BTSX.
I sell that new bunch of absolutely substantially the same BTSX.
I pay capital gains on the difference.

*internal settings = portfolio of bitAssets held in the internal market.

The asset I am holding is always BTSX (with its internal settings programmed to behave like an arbitrary basket of other assets).  Thus BTSX can be viewed as just one asset with programmable behavior.  Changing that behavior as often as you like, the taxable event is when you sell the BTSX, not when you "reprogram" the BTSX you are holding to track outside assets.

"What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas?"

I am not a tax lawyer... but I play one on TV.   ie: I could wrong.
LOL, so Dan got his sense of humor from you...

On the main issue I do  not think IRS are ready with the answer to this question either.

[edit] surprisingly, thinking about it a bit more, you should be fine!
« Last Edit: September 25, 2014, 01:07:03 am by tonyk »
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline Stan

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If BTC went up x 10 I bet a ton of traders would hedge against it crashing by buying bitassets such as bitUSD, that way they wouldn't have to pay capital gains tax like they would if they went into fiat as no gain would have been realised.

That reminds me that I have to research that personally... For other assets you must buy substantially the same asset to avoid paying the tax in that particular year... and IRS is not known to give easy exemption benefiting the taxpayer...

Buy BitBTC.... substantially the same....

If you trade Apple Shares vs Google Shares then no capital gains tax is due (like kind exchange).
If you trade a house on the beach for a house in the mountains then no capital gains tax is due.
If you trade crypto vs crypto then no capital gains tax is due.

I am not a tax lawyer... but I play one on TV.   ie: I could wrong.

OK, you tax experts, here's a thought experiment:

I buy a bunch of BTSX.
I fiddle with the internal settings* to make that bunch of BTSX look like some mix of bitAssets.
I fiddle with the internal settings* to make that mix of bitAssets look like some other mix of bitAssets.
I fiddle with the internal settings* to make that mix of bitAssets look like some other other mix of bitAssets.
I fiddle with the internal settings* to make that mix of bitAssets look like a new bunch of BTSX.
I sell that new bunch of absolutely substantially the same BTSX.
I pay capital gains on the difference.

*internal settings = portfolio of bitAssets held in the internal market.

The asset I am holding is always BTSX (with its internal settings programmed to behave like an arbitrary basket of other assets).  Thus BTSX can be viewed as just one asset with programmable behavior.  Changing that behavior as often as you like, the taxable event is when you sell the BTSX, not when you "reprogram" the BTSX you are holding to track outside assets.

"What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas?"

I am not a tax lawyer... but I play one on TV.   ie: I could wrong.



Anything said on these forums does not constitute an intent to create a legal obligation or contract of any kind.   These are merely my opinions which I reserve the right to change at any time.

Offline tonyk

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If BTC went up x 10 I bet a ton of traders would hedge against it crashing by buying bitassets such as bitUSD, that way they wouldn't have to pay capital gains tax like they would if they went into fiat as no gain would have been realised.

That reminds me that I have to research that personally... For other assets you must buy substantially the same asset to avoid paying the tax in that particular year... and IRS is not known to give easy exemption benefiting the taxpayer...

Buy BitBTC.... substantially the same....

If you trade Apple Shares vs Google Shares then no capital gains tax is due (like kind exchange).
If you trade a house on the beach for a house in the mountains then no capital gains tax is due.
If you trade crypto vs crypto then no capital gains tax is due.

I am not a tax lawyer... but I play one on TV.   ie: I could wrong.

and @donkeypong
I do think you are both stretching the 'appropriate' interpretation according to IRS.  BTC to bitBTC is the one that should be ok, btw.  :)

As for the Like-Kind Exchange, I am well aware of that rule... have several houses flipped with no capital gain taxes as of yet...
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.


Offline bytemaster

If BTC went up x 10 I bet a ton of traders would hedge against it crashing by buying bitassets such as bitUSD, that way they wouldn't have to pay capital gains tax like they would if they went into fiat as no gain would have been realised.

That reminds me that I have to research that personally... For other assets you must buy substantially the same asset to avoid paying the tax in that particular year... and IRS is not known to give easy exemption benefiting the taxpayer...

Buy BitBTC.... substantially the same....

If you trade Apple Shares vs Google Shares then no capital gains tax is due (like kind exchange).
If you trade a house on the beach for a house in the mountains then no capital gains tax is due.
If you trade crypto vs crypto then no capital gains tax is due.

I am not a tax lawyer... but I play one on TV.   ie: I could wrong.

For the latest updates checkout my blog: http://bytemaster.bitshares.org
Anything said on these forums does not constitute an intent to create a legal obligation or contract between myself and anyone else.   These are merely my opinions and I reserve the right to change them at any time.

Offline tonyk

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If BTC went up x 10 I bet a ton of traders would hedge against it crashing by buying bitassets such as bitUSD, that way they wouldn't have to pay capital gains tax like they would if they went into fiat as no gain would have been realised.

That reminds me that I have to research that personally... For other assets you must buy substantially the same asset to avoid paying the tax in that particular year... and IRS is not known to give easy exemption benefiting the taxpayer...
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline matt608

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I also don't think bitcoin will crash and burn causing bitshares to immediately take its place. I think it will be more of a slow progression where bitshares takes litecoin's place as number 2 and slowly starts to catch bitcoin eventually surpassing it. And I think the mainstream doesn't even know enough about bitcoin to realize what just happened. They will just think it got renamed or something.

Agreed.  First we need to take the #2 spot, which will get us a LOT of attention.  (Will ripple update its supply to 100B to stay ahead then?  Hehe). 

I think we could see a scenario where Bitcoin goes into another bubble and goes up 10x.  And Bitshares goes up 100x.  It would still only be 10% the size of bitcoin at that point.

If BTC went up x 10 I bet a ton of traders would hedge against it crashing by buying bitassets such as bitUSD, that way they wouldn't have to pay capital gains tax like they would if they went into fiat as no gain would have been realised.

Offline Ander

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I also don't think bitcoin will crash and burn causing bitshares to immediately take its place. I think it will be more of a slow progression where bitshares takes litecoin's place as number 2 and slowly starts to catch bitcoin eventually surpassing it. And I think the mainstream doesn't even know enough about bitcoin to realize what just happened. They will just think it got renamed or something.

Agreed.  First we need to take the #2 spot, which will get us a LOT of attention.  (Will ripple update its supply to 100B to stay ahead then?  Hehe). 

I think we could see a scenario where Bitcoin goes into another bubble and goes up 10x.  And Bitshares goes up 100x.  It would still only be 10% the size of bitcoin at that point.
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Offline Mysto

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At this point I think we need bitcoin to turn around and start heading up again.  Once bitcoin starts to get a lot of positive buzz and new buyers, then its easy to get them interested in bitshares as well.   (The name similarity works in our favor as well.  What do you do with your bitcoins?  You buy bitshares and get dividends!)
Yea I actually think the name similarity will help a lot more then people think.

I also don't think bitcoin will crash and burn causing bitshares to immediately take its place. I think it will be more of a slow progression where bitshares takes litecoin's place as number 2 and slowly starts to catch bitcoin eventually surpassing it. And I think the mainstream doesn't even know enough about bitcoin to realize what just happened. They will just think it got renamed or something.

Offline Ander

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At this point I think we need bitcoin to turn around and start heading up again.  Once bitcoin starts to get a lot of positive buzz and new buyers, then its easy to get them interested in bitshares as well.   (The name similarity works in our favor as well.  What do you do with your bitcoins?  You buy bitshares and get dividends!)
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Offline matt608

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There's very likely one huge pump coming.

Thereafter it is very likely a 2.0 platform will address the adoption/sustainability/regulatory issues and much of the crypto-value will dump BTC and head for the next big thing.

Say, something like Bitshares...

I agree, although a big pump could propell bitcoin onwards by getting it a ton of media attention around the world and result in more attention from big banks and it would stimulate the bitcoin ecosystem, moving it forward in many other ways.  I actually expect bitcoin to survive and grow for many years, and that bitshares-x will too as it can do many more things.

Offline oldman

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There have been many negative predictions regarding Bitcoin's demise so I don't expect to be taken seriously but here's my take.

Three fundamental factors are in play:

Firstly people are realising virtually no one is using Bitcoin for payments and likely will not, why would they given the hoops they jumped through to buy it.

Secondly without a valid payment example, cryptos don't have consumer support and consequently investors have tacitly recognised that no one other than the crypto community gives a damn about regulations.

Finally and most importantly PoW, once seen as a pure solution, is increasingly seen as flawed as there is now a credible alternative, something that Dan and DPoS can take some pride in revealing.

In summary the fanaticism that kept Bitcoin alive has simply run out of air.

In my view Bitcoin it's simply kept alive by a tight Chinese business model stemming from the need of the cadres to discreetly move money out of China.

As this reality sinks in a vacuum is being created, one that the Bitshares platform can fill but only if we see it associated with a currency that is 'used' by consumers and adopted by the existing Bitcoin infrastructure.

I see you, and raise you one Wall Street Pump.

All your points have merit, are quite reasonable and I am agreeable on the whole.

However, I am not sure any of it matters at this point.

Remember what WS did with mutual funds?

Bitcoin is orders of magnitude more profitable to fleece Main Street with.

The finance/banking complex is accumulating off-market while depressing price on-market.

A bit tin-foil, but it's pretty hard not connect the news from GABI/SM/Charlie Shrem to the rather well-timed/high slippage market sells that have been going on (why sell hundreds/thousands at once on one exchange over and over? Why not sell off-market or use a bot to drip sell?).

This will continue until off-market supply begins to dry up and buy pressure moves to exchanges.

Then the marketing pump will start - buy recommendations, ETF's going live, media coverage, perhaps a few pension/sovereign funds.

Does BTC need to be adopted, regulated and sustainable for the big money to make a big profit? Nope.

So I would not count BTC as down and out just yet. There's very likely one huge pump coming.

Thereafter it is very likely a 2.0 platform will address the adoption/sustainability/regulatory issues and much of the crypto-value will dump BTC and head for the next big thing.

Say, something like Bitshares...

Offline xeroc

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makes sense :D

it's just way to easy to misinterpret forum posts :|

Offline Frodo03

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Lol yea sorry I've been having trouble with my comp. I felt like a schoolteacher writing that.

Dare to translate this in plain(er) English?

Insults are not worth much if not understood, is what I mean.

Ahahah my apologies- no insult intended at all! In the USA, schoolteachers usually write their responses or corrections in red ink. What I meant was that while I was writing so much of my responses in red, I started to feel like a schoolteacher.

Offline tonyk

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Lol yea sorry I've been having trouble with my comp. I felt like a schoolteacher writing that.

Dare to translate this in plain(er) English?

Insults are not worth much if not understood, is what I mean.
« Last Edit: September 24, 2014, 07:21:41 am by tonyk »
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline xeroc

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Lol yea sorry I've been having trouble with my comp. I felt like a schoolteacher writing that.
depending on your country this statement can be interpreted very widely!

Offline Frodo03

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Lol yea sorry I've been having trouble with my comp. I felt like a schoolteacher writing that.

Offline tonyk

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I generally agree with you regarding under-the-toilet-man... buy can you please change the red color with something friendlier for my old eyes, please...[bold blue] ???

[Edit] Thanks for doing it.
« Last Edit: September 24, 2014, 06:32:00 pm by tonyk »
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline Frodo03

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There have been many negative predictions regarding Bitcoin's demise so I don't expect to be taken seriously but here's my take.

Three fundamental factors are in play:

Firstly people are realising virtually no one is using Bitcoin for payments and likely will not, why would they given the hoops they jumped through to buy it.

"People are realising"- what people? Who? Very general statement. And of course we've all had to jump through some hoops to get Bitcoin- you need to jump through even more hoops to get BTSX- let alone even understand what it is! It is slowly getting easier and easier to buy Bitcoin because there are many companies (ex: Circle) working hard to make Bitcoin "grandma-proof". All new technologies are pretty clunky and confusing at first- it takes time for things to get simple. For the record, people ARE using Bitcoin to buy things, not "virtually no one". I don't even need to get started on that one.

Secondly without a valid payment example, cryptos don't have consumer support and consequently investors have tacitly recognised that no one other than the crypto community gives a damn about regulations. smh

Finally and most importantly PoW, once seen as a pure solution, is increasingly seen as flawed as there is now a credible alternative, something that Dan and DPoS can take some pride in revealing.

"Increasingly seen as flawed"- by who? The only people I've seen bashing PoW's flaws are people who have a vested interest in competing cryptos. Of course they're going to bash it- they're biased! I'm not a tech guy, so I can't comment on PoW's long term viability, but I can say that nobody really knows what the best algorithm is- it's all an experiment- all a matter of testing what actually works, and Bitcoin has been working great for a while. No other crypto comes close. People also seem to forget that Bitcoin can adapt and be modified...

In summary the fanaticism that kept Bitcoin alive has simply run out of air.

In my view Bitcoin it's simply kept alive by a tight Chinese business model stemming from the need of the cadres to discreetly move money out of China.

http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#markets

As this reality sinks in a vacuum is being created, one that the Bitshares platform can fill but only if we see it associated with a currency that is 'used' by consumers and adopted by the existing Bitcoin infrastructure.

Only a VERY tiny fraction of the population has heard of Bitcoin- let alone knows what it even is. You seem to imply that all consumers aren't using Bitcoin- most consumers haven't even heard of it.


Lots of bias and general statements, as usual. No offense, just something to be aware of :)

Side note: I hold both BTC and BTSX.
« Last Edit: September 24, 2014, 07:05:08 am by Frodo03 »

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Underjohn, that is a very insightful first post!

Pretty insightful name also! ... under john....
« Last Edit: September 24, 2014, 04:27:02 am by tonyk »
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

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Underjohn, that is a very insightful first post!

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There have been many negative predictions regarding Bitcoin's demise so I don't expect to be taken seriously but here's my take.

Three fundamental factors are in play:

Firstly people are realising virtually no one is using Bitcoin for payments and likely will not, why would they given the hoops they jumped through to buy it.

Secondly without a valid payment example, cryptos don't have consumer support and consequently investors have tacitly recognised that no one other than the crypto community gives a damn about regulations.

Finally and most importantly PoW, once seen as a pure solution, is increasingly seen as flawed as there is now a credible alternative, something that Dan and DPoS can take some pride in revealing.

In summary the fanaticism that kept Bitcoin alive has simply run out of air.

In my view Bitcoin it's simply kept alive by a tight Chinese business model stemming from the need of the cadres to discreetly move money out of China.

As this reality sinks in a vacuum is being created, one that the Bitshares platform can fill but only if we see it associated with a currency that is 'used' by consumers and adopted by the existing Bitcoin infrastructure.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2014, 10:01:26 pm by underjohn »

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maybe we are "wasting" all electricity in the name of bitcoin survival letting current unknown/transparent  viruses on our systems keep running ... for mining purposes ... yes I am overthinking some times... feel free to read the next reply without wasting time analyzing  this one   :P

Offline Riverhead

I guess we'll see what happens at block 420000 and 630000. Either BTC will have to double in price to pay the miners or it'll die. Perhaps a combination of both: higher price and thinner margins for miners.

OR - It could put the massive miners out of business, the diff drops down to reasonable levels, and private mining becomes profitable again....for a while. Rinse and repeat?

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

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It's all speculation and faith in the end. NOBODY knows what is going to happen, NOBODY knows what is a sure success- and anyone who thinks they know what is a sure success is an idiot in my opinion. Putting all of your eggs into one basket is pretty dumb from an investment standpoint, but if you're going to do that, you are FAR better off putting them into Bitcoin.

Be careful when you jump from "I don't know" to "nobody knows." There was a time when only a few people knew that the atomic bomb was possible. There is a reason why certain people become billionaires and others won't.

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Mining is quite simply wasteful insanity and unsustainable. Check out this disgusting picture of a water cooled mining rig:

http://www.coindesk.com/cryptocurrency-miners-turn-exotic-cooling-systems-competition-heats/

Doesnt that mining rig make you want to throw up? Some people would say that rig is clever. But thanks to Bytemaster we know better.

Frodo, I personally dont want BTC to go down the gutter - I think it would be great for everyone if they had a carefully managed transition to DPOS.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2014, 02:31:24 am by trader »

Offline Frodo03

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This. I agree that PoW has some issues, but I believe these can be solved in the long term.

Why? PoW is extremely inefficient and that will never change. It's baked right into the whole concept. When you let go of "bitcoin faith", you'll feel a huge weight lifted off your shoulders.

Why? Because there is already such a massive amount of money in Bitcoin (relative to other cryptos) and because of Bitcoin's enormous network effect. Also, because people truly believe it will succeed and believe in the technology. Due to this, I just can't see people letting Bitcoin crash, burn, and eventually die. I trust that they will find a way to work through the problems because there is such a huge amount of personal interest/investment/belief/connection to Bitcoin.

I'm sure that when the Internet was first unleashed to the world, it probably had massive issues. I'm not a tech guy, but I wouldn't be surprised. I'm sure that back then there were so many people bashing it and pointing out all the major issues and explaining how it can't possibly succeed and would eventually crash, burn, and die.

I guess my point is: just because there are big problems with a new technology, doesn't mean it is going to go down the gutter.

And you could apply the "bitcoin faith" thing to any crypto. It's all speculation and faith in the end. NOBODY knows what is going to happen, NOBODY knows what is a sure success- and anyone who thinks they know what is a sure success is an idiot in my opinion. Putting all of your eggs into one basket is pretty dumb from an investment standpoint, but if you're going to do that, you are FAR better off putting them into Bitcoin.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2014, 02:09:27 am by Frodo03 »

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If the Willy report is true, which is not clear to me, then the last 2 bubbles where fuelled in part by fake demand.  If you look at the long term log chat, there was an increase in the rate of price increase during the last two bubbles, which could have been caused by Willy if it was really happening.  Therefore if the Willy report was true, then we could correct down to the rate of increase that was present before the bubbles, which would put the current bitcoin price at around $200, and the price may not recover quickly. 

If the Willy report isn't true then bitcoin is dead cheap and I'm long term bullish.

My guess is that Willy isn't true.  After all wouldn't something like that have been discovered by law enforcement and have been confirmed?  In which case there are many possible explanations for the current 'dip/crash' (Alibaba, ethereum cash out, traders giving up on bubble hopes, manipulation, simply not enough buyers, merchant sales) , but I am prepared for further downward movement just in case.  I bought my first BTSX today.  I'm still learning about it but it looks promising so far.

Hey Matt,

I didn't know you were around here in Bitsharesland.. Hi!  :)

I guess I'm living under a rock.. I've never heard of the Willy report.

Hey coinhoarder, I bought my first BTSX today.  Did you ever go ahead with the LTC farm?

Willy report alleges that on Mtgox there were bots that bought 650,000BTC with fake dollars:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/26g46e/the_willy_report_proof_of_massive_fraudulent/

It's either the most advanced FUD I've seen or pretty damming info, though some seem to argue that it somehow didn't have much impact.

On bitcoin markets I'm asking about it and getting a bunch of mixed replies:
http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2gv09g/daily_discussion_friday_september_19_2014_part_2/ckn2gl6

Awesome, welcome to the community! I can't comment as to the validity of the Willy report without a shadow of doubt, but...

It is compelling that the Willy and Markus trading activity adds up to right around the total number of Bitcoins that went missing from Mt. Gox, and the traders existence was corroborated by day traders noticing them before the report came out. On the other hand, that all could just be an intended coincidence, as the data was released by an anonymous source and it could have been altered or completely made up. It also seems odd that the hackers would publicly release evidence of their hack, but hackers are weird like that and like to show off after doing things they can go to jail for.

I am leaning towards it being true as it seems like there is too much data to be completely made up, but then again maybe that is the point. I guess time will tell, and I think the truth will come out eventually whether it be in the bankruptcy case or some civil case. I think at some point Karpales is going to have to prove he didn't steal all those coins, and when he has to do this the truth will come out. It is very interesting though.. I am interested to see what will come of it.

PS: Yes, we made a farm... be glad you didn't join us. I am done with ASICs and PoW, that is part of the reason I adopted Bitshares. ASICs are unprofitable and outright scams for the consumers & lead to centralization, and PoW is incredibly wasteful of electricity.. I know from experience haha. :)
« Last Edit: September 20, 2014, 04:12:15 pm by CoinHoarder »
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Offline feedthemcake

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I sure hope *biophil* and *bluebit* (aka OP) got all the info they expected from this post.... On the same, note BM sure has at least 2 options whenever he decides to stop developing software -Those being teaching (Austrian/True) economics or being a politician....

I agree we should avoid asking BM for his opinion directly, making him feel bad for not answering when he has so so much to do and so little time. We should rather let him chime in when he feels like it or at designated events.

That being said, I don't agree that we should encourage him to code day and night doing little else. First of all educating people is a great way to distill something to its essence, not just dead knowledge, but live theory such as the DAC metaphor. Second, lifting ones head every once in a while to assess the state of crypto is essential to thrive in an exponential market. Third, making predictions and sticking ones neck out is a great way to expose your own biases (although bytemaster is based^2). Fourth, we don't just need massive amounts of coding, we need clarity, big ideas, and people who can integrate all the relevant information BitShares is facing to make unique decisions. Fifth, different times of the day - and week - are suited for different things. Sixth, engaging with and feeling accepted by a home base like this community (at least in small doses) is vital for enduring the harsh world.

Details can can make or break companies, but more often it is the big, strategic decisions or lack of decisions that make them crumble - or rather, make someone else race ahead of them.

 +5% +5% +5%

Offline CLains

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I sure hope *biophil* and *bluebit* (aka OP) got all the info they expected from this post.... On the same, note BM sure has at least 2 options whenever he decides to stop developing software -Those being teaching (Austrian/True) economics or being a politician....

I agree we should avoid asking BM for his opinion directly, making him feel bad for not answering when he has so so much to do and so little time. We should rather let him chime in when he feels like it or at designated events.

That being said, I don't agree that we should encourage him to code day and night doing little else. First of all educating people is a great way to distill something to its essence, not just dead knowledge, but live theory such as the DAC metaphor. Second, lifting ones head every once in a while to assess the state of crypto is essential to thrive in an exponential market. Third, making predictions and sticking ones neck out is a great way to expose your own biases (although bytemaster is based^2). Fourth, we don't just need massive amounts of coding, we need clarity, big ideas, and people who can integrate all the relevant information BitShares is facing to make unique decisions. Fifth, different times of the day - and week - are suited for different things. Sixth, engaging with and feeling accepted by a home base like this community (at least in small doses) is vital for enduring the harsh world.

Details can can make or break companies, but more often it is the big, strategic decisions or lack of decisions that make them crumble - or rather, make someone else race ahead of them.

Offline tonyk

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There is what I would like to believe and then there is what is really happening.   I would like to think that people are starting to realize that Bitcoin is unsustainable, expensive, and centralized offering little utility.   That this realization combined with the emergence of dozens of competitors that are better than bitcoin in many ways with their only weakness being the lack of network effect has caused people to realize that Bitcoin is not the long-term rocket to the moon they were looking for.

The competitors lack the network effect Bitcoin has today and thus they are not ready to take over Bitcoins market cap.   Bitcoin will continue to fall and alternatives will rise slowly until major players start adopting support for the next big solution.

Bitcoin miners are among the largest holders of bitcoin, the rise in difficulty is squeezing margins forcing them to sell a larger percentage of the mined coins.   These large mining operations are also owned by some of the largest BTC holders and they are on the front lines of the realization that mining is a dead operation walking.   I suspect that this is causing them to divest of BTC.

But then again it is probably animal spirits driving the market.

I sure hope *biophil* and *bluebit* (aka OP) got all the info they expected from this post.... On the same, note BM sure has at least 2 options whenever he decides to stop developing software -Those being teaching (Austrian/True) economics or being a politician....
« Last Edit: September 20, 2014, 09:45:04 am by tonyk »
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline CLains

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We have been in a very consistent down trend since July.... This conspiracy stuff is denial.

Bitcoin rose 10000% in 2013 and now everyone has been expecting a bubble in 2014, and it hasn't happened - meanwhile inflation stands at 10% and we have no idea where the real low is, so we're probably going to overshoot it (did it already happen?) before everything returns to normal and confidence starts rising again.

I would like to think that people are starting to realize that Bitcoin is unsustainable, expensive, and centralized offering little utility.   That this realization combined with the emergence of dozens of competitors that are better than bitcoin in many ways with their only weakness being the lack of network effect has caused people to realize that Bitcoin is not the long-term rocket to the moon they were looking for.

Bitcoin will continue to fall and alternatives will rise slowly until major players start adopting support for the next big solution.

Pretty much agree with this, but I doubt people has "realized" it. It just happens naturally. And I definitely don't believe in slow rises. If BitShares X rises in 2015 say because of 10% YEILD it will have almost nothing to do with the economical value for the individual in the first 12 months and everything to do with speculating on the idea + the fact that they can hedge in FIAT within the system. Because truth is, if it catches on then market cap will explode from 60 million to 600 million, then back to 300 million, then 6 months later go to 3 billion then down to 1.5 billion, etc. etc. just like we have seen with Bitcoin (perhaps smoothed out 50% because of the FIAT hedge?). There are economical laws, and there are "market" laws, and the tenuous relation for us is that soon people will ask for "proof of economy" when they look at what coins to speculate on.

In sum, yes be realist about price movements, and yes be realist about proof of economy, but also yes be realist about the laws of market hype.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2014, 09:15:36 am by CLains »

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I don't have to believe anymore; I know. Very freeing!

This. So much this. And not even BitShares X, the whole philosophy of Decentralized Autonomous Companies is absolutely the future of blockchain technology.

idk bout yall but i've decided to remain diversified.

the network effect is real, and cryptocurrency is an unprecedented technology. we don't know whether or not and if so how strongly the network effect will apply to bitcoin.

what I do know: some people have many millions of dollars invested into bitcoin. enough to comprise billions of dollars worth of market cap = there's a monster segment of wealthy people motivated to make PoW succeed.

BitShares brings a lot to the table, and I've invested accordingly. But I don't have a crystal ball, and I can't bare to part with my Bitcoin, Peercoin, Litecoin, Primecoin, and NXT.

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competition from altcoins and more important is FED plan to increase interest rates, cut QE, BTC price decreasing following global EUR/USD trend
in current debt paradigm near years (2015-20XX) is the period when poor become poorer and rich become richer.::)
« Last Edit: September 20, 2014, 01:43:22 am by hasher »

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I don't have to believe anymore; I know. Very freeing!

This. So much this. And not even BitShares X, the whole philosophy of Decentralized Autonomous Companies is absolutely the future of blockchain technology.


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This. I agree that PoW has some issues, but I believe these can be solved in the long term.

Why? PoW is extremely inefficient and that will never change. It's baked right into the whole concept. When you let go of "bitcoin faith", you'll feel a huge weight lifted off your shoulders.

It's quite a relief, isn't it? I never felt comfortable with the mining and the need for Bitcoin to add massive amounts of new money every day just to stay even. I remember when that pit in my stomach disappeared, the one that expressed an inkling of nagging doubt about whether Bitcoin and other cryptos would succeed. First I tried some other Proof of Stake-type cryptos, including NXT, but those experiments did not last long because there wasn't much to them. When I sold everything else and moved to BitShares, any doubt I had was eliminated. I don't have to believe anymore; I know. Very freeing!
« Last Edit: September 20, 2014, 12:08:18 am by donkeypong »

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This. I agree that PoW has some issues, but I believe these can be solved in the long term.

Why? PoW is extremely inefficient and that will never change. It's baked right into the whole concept. When you let go of "bitcoin faith", you'll feel a huge weight lifted off your shoulders.

Offline Frodo03

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Anyone cashing out a significant number of coins is will do so off-market/OTC.

Theories that rationalize the price drop as large holders cashing out on-market do not hold water.

No one with enough wherewithal to accumulate thousands of coins is going to use exchanges to liquidate.

The slippage and security issues are a non-starter.

The price is dropping because folks are acquiring larger amounts of coins off-market and, very reasonably, dropping the price via the exchanges to facilitate accumulation.

Ironically, the good news of the last few months may be the reason for the drop.

Bigger money is now taking the tech seriously and that means folks are going to want open positions.

This is the way smart money opens a position.

Has the protocol failed? No.

Has a government announced a ban? No.

Is adoption decreasing? No.

Is VC investment decreasing? No.

Are adoption, VC investment and transactions increasing? Yes.

Hmmm...

This. I agree that PoW has some issues, but I believe these can be solved in the long term.

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If the Willy report is true, which is not clear to me, then the last 2 bubbles where fuelled in part by fake demand.  If you look at the long term log chat, there was an increase in the rate of price increase during the last two bubbles, which could have been caused by Willy if it was really happening.  Therefore if the Willy report was true, then we could correct down to the rate of increase that was present before the bubbles, which would put the current bitcoin price at around $200, and the price may not recover quickly. 

If the Willy report isn't true then bitcoin is dead cheap and I'm long term bullish.

My guess is that Willy isn't true.  After all wouldn't something like that have been discovered by law enforcement and have been confirmed?  In which case there are many possible explanations for the current 'dip/crash' (Alibaba, ethereum cash out, traders giving up on bubble hopes, manipulation, simply not enough buyers, merchant sales) , but I am prepared for further downward movement just in case.  I bought my first BTSX today.  I'm still learning about it but it looks promising so far.

Hey Matt,

I didn't know you were around here in Bitsharesland.. Hi!  :)

I guess I'm living under a rock.. I've never heard of the Willy report.

Hey coinhoarder, I bought my first BTSX today.  Did you ever go ahead with the LTC farm?

Willy report alleges that on Mtgox there were bots that bought 650,000BTC with fake dollars:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/26g46e/the_willy_report_proof_of_massive_fraudulent/

It's either the most advanced FUD I've seen or pretty damming info, though some seem to argue that it somehow didn't have much impact.

On bitcoin markets I'm asking about it and getting a bunch of mixed replies:
http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2gv09g/daily_discussion_friday_september_19_2014_part_2/ckn2gl6
« Last Edit: September 19, 2014, 09:47:25 pm by matt608 »


Offline bytemaster

There is what I would like to believe and then there is what is really happening.   I would like to think that people are starting to realize that Bitcoin is unsustainable, expensive, and centralized offering little utility.   That this realization combined with the emergence of dozens of competitors that are better than bitcoin in many ways with their only weakness being the lack of network effect has caused people to realize that Bitcoin is not the long-term rocket to the moon they were looking for.

The competitors lack the network effect Bitcoin has today and thus they are not ready to take over Bitcoins market cap.   Bitcoin will continue to fall and alternatives will rise slowly until major players start adopting support for the next big solution.

Bitcoin miners are among the largest holders of bitcoin, the rise in difficulty is squeezing margins forcing them to sell a larger percentage of the mined coins.   These large mining operations are also owned by some of the largest BTC holders and they are on the front lines of the realization that mining is a dead operation walking.   I suspect that this is causing them to divest of BTC.

But then again it is probably animal spirits driving the market.
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Offline gamey

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Where does one acquire large amounts of coins "off market" ? 
I speak for myself and only myself.

Offline CoinHoarder

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I'm not a Larimer, but I read a good theory yesterday. Basically.. the Alibaba IPO is sucking money out of the ecosystem. A lot of the price support has been coming from China, and they are mostly interested in getting a piece of one of China's biggest and most successful companies. If one of our bilingual friends from China could weigh in on this theory, I would appreciate it.

http://bitcoinmagazine.com/16481/bitcoin-price-dropped-today/

No.

With all due respect, of course.

Edit: http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2grvkh/correcting_a_few_bear_misconceptions_who_is/

I didn't mean to make it seem as if that's the only reason, as there are many dynamics that affect the price. I think that must of affected the price at least a little in the past week(s).

Apologies, did not mean to call you out personally.

I find these sorts of rationalizations silly and tire quickly of them being circulated.

Old and grumpy...  ;D

Offline oldman

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Anyone cashing out a significant number of coins is will do so off-market/OTC.

Theories that rationalize the price drop as large holders cashing out on-market do not hold water.

No one with enough wherewithal to accumulate thousands of coins is going to use exchanges to liquidate.

The slippage and security issues are a non-starter.

The price is dropping because folks are acquiring larger amounts of coins off-market and, very reasonably, dropping the price via the exchanges to facilitate accumulation.

Ironically, the good news of the last few months may be the reason for the drop.

Bigger money is now taking the tech seriously and that means folks are going to want open positions.

This is the way smart money opens a position.

Has the protocol failed? No.

Has a government announced a ban? No.

Is adoption decreasing? No.

Is VC investment decreasing? No.

Are adoption, VC investment and transactions increasing? Yes.

Hmmm...
« Last Edit: September 19, 2014, 08:39:05 pm by OldMan »

Offline CoinHoarder

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If the Willy report is true, which is not clear to me, then the last 2 bubbles where fuelled in part by fake demand.  If you look at the long term log chat, there was an increase in the rate of price increase during the last two bubbles, which could have been caused by Willy if it was really happening.  Therefore if the Willy report was true, then we could correct down to the rate of increase that was present before the bubbles, which would put the current bitcoin price at around $200, and the price may not recover quickly. 

If the Willy report isn't true then bitcoin is dead cheap and I'm long term bullish.

My guess is that Willy isn't true.  After all wouldn't something like that have been discovered by law enforcement and have been confirmed?  In which case there are many possible explanations for the current 'dip/crash' (Alibaba, ethereum cash out, traders giving up on bubble hopes, manipulation, simply not enough buyers, merchant sales) , but I am prepared for further downward movement just in case.  I bought my first BTSX today.  I'm still learning about it but it looks promising so far.

Hey Matt,

I didn't know you were around here in Bitsharesland.. Hi!  :)

I guess I'm living under a rock.. I've never heard of the Willy report.
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Offline CoinHoarder

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I'm not a Larimer, but I read a good theory yesterday. Basically.. the Alibaba IPO is sucking money out of the ecosystem. A lot of the price support has been coming from China, and they are mostly interested in getting a piece of one of China's biggest and most successful companies. If one of our bilingual friends from China could weigh in on this theory, I would appreciate it.

http://bitcoinmagazine.com/16481/bitcoin-price-dropped-today/

No.

With all due respect, of course.

Edit: http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2grvkh/correcting_a_few_bear_misconceptions_who_is/

I didn't mean to make it seem as if that's the only reason, as there are many dynamics that affect the price. I think that must of affected the price at least a little in the past week(s).
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Offline matt608

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If the Willy report is true, which is not clear to me, then the last 2 bubbles where fuelled in part by fake demand.  If you look at the long term log chat, there was an increase in the rate of price increase during the last two bubbles, which could have been caused by Willy if it was really happening.  Therefore if the Willy report was true, then we could correct down to the rate of increase that was present before the bubbles, which would put the current bitcoin price at around $200, and the price may not recover quickly. 

If the Willy report isn't true then bitcoin is dead cheap and I'm long term bullish.

My guess is that Willy isn't true.  After all wouldn't something like that have been discovered by law enforcement and have been confirmed?  In which case there are many possible explanations for the current 'dip/crash' (Alibaba, ethereum cash out, traders giving up on bubble hopes, manipulation, simply not enough buyers, merchant sales) , but I am prepared for further downward movement just in case.  I bought my first BTSX today.  I'm still learning about it but it looks promising so far.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2014, 08:26:53 pm by matt608 »

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Perhaps it's a confluence of factors. Another factor might be that the markets were awaiting this Scotland vote, since a 'yes' would have assured some fresh instability from Glasgow to Catalonia to Quebec. Scottish independence going down so handily certainly threw some cold water on those parties. Bitcoin, like gold, has been acting as a bit of a hedge, and perhaps people were more hedged into than we knew. Now, nobody wants to miss the stock market rallies that should follow this collective 'breath of relief' for the world financial system.

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Dear Mr. Larimer,

I would like your take on what's currently happening to the price of Bitcoin and where you think it's headed or will you discuss this in the Beyond Bitcoin Hangout, thanks

-bluebit

more sellers than buyers - point!

no one , no one can tell you more because the pressure at the moment is on more crypto markets then only BTC.

Offline oldman

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Dear Mr. Larimer,

I would like your take on what's currently happening to the price of Bitcoin and where you think it's headed or will you discuss this in the Beyond Bitcoin Hangout, thanks

-bluebit

I'm not a Larimer, but I read a good theory yesterday. Basically.. the Alibaba IPO is sucking money out of the ecosystem. A lot of the price support has been coming from China, and they are mostly interested in getting a piece of one of China's biggest and most successful companies. If one of our bilingual friends from China could weigh in on this theory, I would appreciate it.

http://bitcoinmagazine.com/16481/bitcoin-price-dropped-today/

No.

With all due respect, of course.

Edit: http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2grvkh/correcting_a_few_bear_misconceptions_who_is/


« Last Edit: September 19, 2014, 07:52:18 pm by OldMan »

Offline eagleeye

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I'm not a Larimer, but I read a good theory yesterday. Basically.. the Alibaba IPO is sucking money out of the ecosystem. A lot of the price support has been coming from China, and they are mostly interested in getting a piece of one of China's biggest and most successful companies. If one of our bilingual friends from China could weigh in on this theory, I would appreciate it.

http://bitcoinmagazine.com/16481/bitcoin-price-dropped-today/

It wouldn't be easy for a normal Chinese guy to buy Alibaba stock from NYSE.

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Any Hong Kong Brokerage would probably allow you to do it.

Offline luckybit

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Dear Mr. Larimer,

I would like your take on what's currently happening to the price of Bitcoin and where you think it's headed or will you discuss this in the Beyond Bitcoin Hangout, thanks

-bluebit

Maybe you should buy BitUSD so you can lock in your profits.

What I know about Bitcoin (I'm not Dan but I'll give my take) is that some hacker has hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins from MtGox hack. It's easy to manipulate the market with hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins.
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Offline dipplum

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I'm not a Larimer, but I read a good theory yesterday. Basically.. the Alibaba IPO is sucking money out of the ecosystem. A lot of the price support has been coming from China, and they are mostly interested in getting a piece of one of China's biggest and most successful companies. If one of our bilingual friends from China could weigh in on this theory, I would appreciate it.

http://bitcoinmagazine.com/16481/bitcoin-price-dropped-today/

It wouldn't be easy for a normal Chinese guy to buy Alibaba stock from NYSE.

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Offline CoinHoarder

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I'm not a Larimer, but I read a good theory yesterday. Basically.. the Alibaba IPO is sucking money out of the ecosystem. A lot of the price support has been coming from China, and they are mostly interested in getting a piece of one of China's biggest and most successful companies. If one of our bilingual friends from China could weigh in on this theory, I would appreciate it.

http://bitcoinmagazine.com/16481/bitcoin-price-dropped-today/

well,Alibaba IPO is sucking money from the Americans......Chinese can't buy American stock even if they want to ....
 :P

Anyone in the world can buy American stock on the NYSE or NASDAQ.

Maybe there is some silly law, regulation, or restriction that makes it challenging to do so.
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Offline tonyk

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Dear Mr. Larimer,

I would like your take on what's currently happening to the price of Bitcoin and where you think it's headed or will you discuss this in the Beyond Bitcoin Hangout, thanks

-bluebit
 
Why do you think he has to have an opinion on that?

Dear tonyk: I just love how you're always so needlessly confrontational. In this instance, is it because you think BM is unable to protect his own time, and if you berate bluebit for asking a totally legitimate question (that most of us, I'm sure, would love an answer to), somehow you'll keep BM from answering?

Is it because your name wasn't on this thread yet and in your self-aggrandizing manner you couldn't help interjecting something unnecessarily aggressive?

Or maybe it's just that bluebit is on your extensive list of forum members that you personally dislike.

In any case, as you can see from this post, I'm a big fan of your style of turning potentially useful threads into pointless tangential arguments.

Sincerely, biophil

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Sure next time I will ask for permission to speak, first, Sir!
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline eagleeye

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Dear Mr. Larimer,

I would like your take on what's currently happening to the price of Bitcoin and where you think it's headed or will you discuss this in the Beyond Bitcoin Hangout, thanks

-bluebit

I'm not a Larimer, but I read a good theory yesterday. Basically.. the Alibaba IPO is sucking money out of the ecosystem. A lot of the price support has been coming from China, and they are mostly interested in getting a piece of one of China's biggest and most successful companies. If one of our bilingual friends from China could weigh in on this theory, I would appreciate it.

http://bitcoinmagazine.com/16481/bitcoin-price-dropped-today/

well,Alibaba IPO is sucking money from the Americans......Chinese can't buy American stock even if they want to ....
 :P

Anyone in the world can buy American stock on the NYSE or NASDAQ.

Offline biophil

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Dear Mr. Larimer,

I would like your take on what's currently happening to the price of Bitcoin and where you think it's headed or will you discuss this in the Beyond Bitcoin Hangout, thanks

-bluebit

Why do you think he has to have an opinion on that?

Dear tonyk: I just love how you're always so needlessly confrontational. In this instance, is it because you think BM is unable to protect his own time, and if you berate bluebit for asking a totally legitimate question (that most of us, I'm sure, would love an answer to), somehow you'll keep BM from answering?

Is it because your name wasn't on this thread yet and in your self-aggrandizing manner you couldn't help interjecting something unnecessarily aggressive?

Or maybe it's just that bluebit is on your extensive list of forum members that you personally dislike.

In any case, as you can see from this post, I'm a big fan of your style of turning potentially useful threads into pointless tangential arguments.

Sincerely, biophil

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Dear Mr. Larimer,

I would like your take on what's currently happening to the price of Bitcoin and where you think it's headed or will you discuss this in the Beyond Bitcoin Hangout, thanks

-bluebit

Why do you think he has to have an opinion on that?

He doesn't need to answer, I'm just asking because I see him as a leader.
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looks like an elevator on its last wire


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Offline tonyk

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Dear Mr. Larimer,

I would like your take on what's currently happening to the price of Bitcoin and where you think it's headed or will you discuss this in the Beyond Bitcoin Hangout, thanks

-bluebit

Why do you think he has to have an opinion on that?
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline CoinHoarder

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Dear Mr. Larimer,

I would like your take on what's currently happening to the price of Bitcoin and where you think it's headed or will you discuss this in the Beyond Bitcoin Hangout, thanks

-bluebit

I'm not a Larimer, but I read a good theory yesterday. Basically.. the Alibaba IPO is sucking money out of the ecosystem. A lot of the price support has been coming from China, and they are mostly interested in getting a piece of one of China's biggest and most successful companies. If one of our bilingual friends from China could weigh in on this theory, I would appreciate it.

http://bitcoinmagazine.com/16481/bitcoin-price-dropped-today/

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Offline bluebit

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Dear Mr. Larimer,

I would like your take on what's currently happening to the price of Bitcoin and where you think it's headed or will you discuss this in the Beyond Bitcoin Hangout, thanks

-bluebit
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