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Messages - Empirical1

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31
General Discussion / Re: BitUSD Market Maker - Proposal for Discussion
« on: August 29, 2014, 06:17:43 pm »
What if there was going to be a substantial instant revaluation of the $ like there was in 1933. Those in the know would sell to BTSX market maker at 0.9 in volume and damage BTSX before the official announcement?

Quote
In 1933, through a series of gold-related acts, culminating in the Gold Reserve Act of 1934, America realized a dollar devaluation of 41% when the price of gold was adjusted from $20.67 per ounce of gold to $35 per ounce

http://www.forbes.com/2008/12/09/dollar-devaluation-gold-pf-ii-in_fb_1209soapbox_inl.html


32
General Discussion / Re: BitUSD Market Maker - Proposal for Discussion
« on: August 29, 2014, 04:54:07 pm »
In addition to only being allowed to short at parity and having options trading separate...

What if when you short @ 1-1 you pay a 2% fee which goes to the long?

So if the exchange rate is 25 BTSX to $. I have to pay 25 BTSX plus 0.5 BTSX per $ to short even on the main BitUSD market.

BitUSD besides being new, currently has no utility and costs 1/2% to covert to real $. Shorts are more than willing to pay that to longs, this recognition of conversion cost fee should be applied to BitUSD imo.

(People buying at 1-1 will struggle to sell at parity even without being in competition with shorts while this 'utility friction' exists as a result little new BitUSD will be created. We should acknowledge this friction imo.)






33
General Discussion / Re: Could 0.00011 BTSX/BTC be the highest price we will ever see?
« on: August 29, 2014, 04:00:58 pm »
Quote from: mavisjames on August 29, 2014, 03:35:33 pm
Quote from: Empirical1 on August 29, 2014, 03:31:33 pm
I know for future reference though that the words 'KEEP CALM' actually mean it's time to 'PANIC SELL'. I'm a long term holder but should have trusted my gut and sold a bit so I could add to my BTSX position.

Emprical you should of just moved into BitUSD on the downward move. No need to sell into BTC. I've increased my position of BTSx holding by 85% through BitUSD

I'm glad your wallet works, the latest version might work for me I don't know. But I'll probably leave it to the 'beta testers' for a while as I'm bad with computers and I get easily frustrated when something computer related is giving me hassles :)

I should have sold some when I first heard something about a hard fork. I watched the market for two hours afterwards and BTSX was still holding up well, so I thought there would be a limited reaction. I was wrong, market was just slow to react, could have added to my BTSX a lot.

34
General Discussion / Re: Could 0.00011 BTSX/BTC be the highest price we will ever see?
« on: August 29, 2014, 03:31:33 pm »
I know for future reference though that the words 'KEEP CALM' actually mean it's time to 'PANIC SELL'. I'm a long term holder but should have trusted my gut and sold a bit so I could add to my BTSX position.

35
General Discussion / Re: Which BitAsset is the best to buy and hold long term?
« on: August 29, 2014, 03:16:19 pm »
I'll definitely be buying BitSLV when BTSX is more decentralised and robust, there's a much higher storage cost for physical silver than gold at international vaults, so I will be more likely to move some of my silver portfolio into BitSLV.

With silver though, a large part of current demand is industrial demand, meaning if there was a big shock to the financial system, that demand could plummet short term before store of value demand kicks in but I'm still a silver fan.

I'm not sure how the BTSX system would cope with a sudden re-valuation of gold for example though. 

36
General Discussion / Re: One way or another the PEG will be established...
« on: August 28, 2014, 09:26:37 pm »
I'm not against using price feeds as long as those price feeds are 'decentralised' and it is hard to manipulate. I think the mainstream will be fine with that. Fantastic if it gets us to a close to USD more stable peg quicker.

As for the other stuff, not that I understand everything, but if it's possible to implement Agent86 suggestion of limiting the shorting above the peg and see how that works.

I don't know if this is a factor but for the arb bot or even price feeds, the only problem I can think of is that sometimes the official price is different to the black market price. Like in Argentina there is an official exchange rate of the peso to the dollar but a different black market rate. So using the official feed & or arb bot may be bad. It's possible that could happen to major western currencies too.

37
General Discussion / Re: Demographics to approach for Bitshares X.
« on: August 28, 2014, 08:27:34 pm »
Quote from: gamey on August 28, 2014, 08:17:28 pm

It is my intention to start this up but I was somewhat waiting for BitUSD/wallet etc to stabilize.  When reaching out to people who aren't already in crypto scene, I think they're going to be even more concerned about depositing into a network that is still actively having the approaches tested and experimental.

I wish I knew more day-trading geeks that just knew the best sites.  There are likely 10 or so major trading sites that cover 80% of the traffic.  I also wish I knew more about markets and trading.

Yeah agree with all of that. It makes sense to wait for a stable version for sure.

I also wish I knew more about markets and trading too  :'( Maybe BitAssets will motivate me to learn quickly.




38
General Discussion / Re: Demographics to approach for Bitshares X.
« on: August 28, 2014, 08:09:51 pm »
Anyone know if any posts have been made on any trading forums? I think some of those guys will try trading on BTSX very quickly, the newer it is the better maybe.

As a poker player, we're always looking for weaker players, if you told me there was a poker site where the average player was
really weak, poker players would be over there in a flash, soon this would balance the site out. 

Similarly traders would be looking to trade in markets where the average user is not that skilled, which is what we have.
I think we should make some posts on trading forums and let them know it exists.


39
General Discussion / Re: Brian Page's discussion on Beyond Bitcoin Show last Friday.
« on: August 28, 2014, 07:56:40 pm »
 +5% Great interview!

I don't think Brian was ideal for marketing BitShares within the alt-coin demographic early on, but now that it's getting to the stage where it can go mainstream, especially after listening to that interview, I think you'd struggle to find someone better. Very exciting!



40
General Discussion / Re: BitUSD is not an interest bearing bond.
« on: August 28, 2014, 05:26:14 pm »
Quote from: puppies on August 28, 2014, 05:18:45 pm
I also think it is a little early to give up on this.

 +5% I personally think the current pegging system is working very well. 

There are so many BTSX bulls and very few trader atm. Once you add in traders, bots, particularly CNY profit taking as BitCNY, people taking advantage of interest on their BTC in BitBTC and a stable version. I expect it, even within a month to trade a lot closer to the peg. Within 3 months I think it will peg very closely to BitUSD in a fairly tight range. Hopefully tight enough to appeal to consumers and retailers.

I am interested in understanding what Agent86 is proposing though.

41
General Discussion / Re: BitUSD is not an interest bearing bond.
« on: August 28, 2014, 05:13:47 pm »
Quote from: Agent86 on August 28, 2014, 04:53:16 pm
Quote from: Empire on August 28, 2014, 04:34:42 pm
Ok so you would move the current market into a separate vehicle on BTSX as an 'interest bearing bond'
Quote
Interest bearing bonds require a separate market and implementation from the core BitUSD market.
I think you are confused about what I'm proposing…

Yes, apologies, I think this is the problem. I don't really understand what you are proposing and I have trouble understanding some of this stuff in general.

Quote
The method to fix the peg is to use the price feed to limit the creation of new bitUSD by preventing shorts from shorting below the USD price.

In the current system new BitUSD is created whenever a short meets a long.

In your system

1.You would use a decentralised price feed system to only allow new BitUSD to be created at 1-1?

2.If I own BitUSD that has already been created I can sell it any price I want though, even if that's lower than 1-1?

3. People who have already shorted can buy that USD at say $0.98 too, by 'covering', they just can't short at that level and create new USD?

Quote from: Agent86 on August 28, 2014, 05:06:13 pm
Another way to look at it is this: People who want to short USD really bad to get the more upside exposure to BTSX will either have to compete to short at $1 or they will have to pay interest via issuing a bond.  They can't just screw up the peg.

 +5% Thanks for that simple explanation that sounds very good.


42
General Discussion / Re: BitUSD is not an interest bearing bond.
« on: August 28, 2014, 04:34:42 pm »
Quote from: Agent86 on August 28, 2014, 04:16:39 pm
Quote from: Empire on August 28, 2014, 04:12:42 pm
Quote from: Agent86 on August 28, 2014, 04:01:00 pm
Quote from: Empire on August 28, 2014, 03:51:10 pm
Agent86, In your system, lets say I have BitUSD to sell but there are currently no buyers at 0.9 vs. the dollar. Who do I sell to?
You'll generally have no problem finding buyers if you are selling BitUSD under the value of a dollar.  The shorts have to close out their position to get their shares back sometime and they'll see bitUSD selling for less than the price of USD as a great opportunity to close out their position profitably.  Also, no more bitUSD will come into existence until the market has corrected and people have scooped up the bitUSD.

We currently do have a problem finding buyers for BitUSD under the value of a dollar?
Yes, we currently have a problem of not enough buyers because we are allowing shorts to sell newly minted USD onto the market under the value of a dollar.

Ok so you would move the current market into a separate vehicle on BTSX as an 'interest bearing bond'
Quote
Interest bearing bonds require a separate market and implementation from the core BitUSD market.

However if I'm a BitUSD buyer.

Will I prefer to buy at 0.9 on your price fixed market, where I may not be able to find a seller at times because the price is fixed  and people may at times not want to buy within that range. 

Or would I prefer to buy my BitUSD on the other market at a better rate or interest rate, where I also know I can always find a buyer.

It seems BitUSD buyers would gravitate to the free market which is also paying them a better price to buy.

(I don't know if this makes sense, but for me, another way of looking at the current price is that if you price fixed at exactly 1-1 via price feed. BitUSD Shorts today would be willing to short at 1-1 and give the person going long a few BTSX per dollar as bonus to take the other side because they want to leverage their BTSX position that much. Longs would always choose the biggest bonus. Hence any other market on the same system wouldn't attract the longs.)

Edit: Never mind I'm confusing myself here...


43
General Discussion / Re: BitUSD is not an interest bearing bond.
« on: August 28, 2014, 04:12:42 pm »
Quote from: Agent86 on August 28, 2014, 04:01:00 pm
Quote from: Empire on August 28, 2014, 03:51:10 pm
Agent86, In your system, lets say I have BitUSD to sell but there are currently no buyers at 0.9 vs. the dollar. Who do I sell to?
You'll generally have no problem finding buyers if you are selling BitUSD under the value of a dollar.  The shorts have to close out their position to get their shares back sometime and they'll see bitUSD selling for less than the price of USD as a great opportunity to close out their position profitably.  Also, no more bitUSD will come into existence until the market has corrected and people have scooped up the bitUSD.

We currently do have a problem finding buyers for BitUSD under the value of a dollar that's why the BitUSD price is lower.




44
General Discussion / Re: BitUSD is not an interest bearing bond.
« on: August 28, 2014, 03:51:10 pm »
Agent86, In your system, lets say I have BitUSD to sell but there are currently no buyers at 0.9 vs. the dollar. Who do I sell to?

45
General Discussion / Re: How is the bitUSD peg holding up?
« on: August 28, 2014, 02:58:07 pm »
Quote from: xeroc on August 28, 2014, 08:16:06 am
those price swings have been expected .. and most probably will stabilze once more money makers and bots go online

 +5% I actually expected lower levels in the beginning.   

There are so many BTSX bulls and very few traders. Once you add in traders, bots, particularly CNY profit taking as BitCNY, people taking advantage of interest on their BTC in BitBTC and a stable version. I expect it, even within a month to trade a lot closer to the peg. Within 3 months I doubt the peg will be more than 3/4% lower on average for most BitAssets. 



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