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Messages - Empirical1.2

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31
On a side note, Dan Larimer has not been gone from BitShares for anywhere near as long, nor anywhere near as completely, as Jakub (the OP) was when he was mia for many months. No doubt Jakub was off doing valuable research and work - although he gave us no intimation of that. Should we expect any less of Bytemaster, who's hiatus will likely much benefit BitShares in the long run?

Please everyone take that into consideration when evaluating this thread.

All that's left of BM is his "promise" to offer worker proposals (in some undefined point in time) for the migration of his STEEM inventions *if* they prove to be successful.

He has no longer any significant stake in BTS.
He has no plans to offer any worker proposals, apart from emergency fixes.   
And he's not even willing to promote OpenLedger as a trading platform for STEEM.

For me this is enough to call it "gone".

Yeah Dan and Stan seem to have both come to similar conclusions about decentralization, BTS & DPOS. 

https://steemit.com/crypto-news/@dan/is-the-dao-going-to-be-doa

Quote
Smart Contracts cannot fix Dumb People BitShares had all of the tools, the talent, and the money to do great things if only the BTS holders could agree on what should be done, who should be paid, and how much should be spent.

Voting is overrated.  I wouldn't want to ride on an aircraft controlled by voting passengers.
Give me a benevolent whale any day.

So I wish them luck with their centralized, benevolent whale blockchain, combined with all BM's tools & talent, I'm sure they'll be a Darwinian guaranteed success. BTS, LSK, DAO, DASH etc. don't stand a chance :)

(While I agree many aspects of it are challenging, I think they've come to some wrong conclusions by ignoring/discounting the role they played in the state of affairs BTS found itself and I also believe it's those that continue to develop the tools and incentives to make that process effective that will be the most rewarded.)

Boy, you just won't let that go, will you?
You must have quoted that line a dozen times, as if it is somehow controversial.
It is obvious that passengers on planes and ships don't get to vote on operational matters - for good reasons.
Don't make it out to be a global statement against shareholder's choosing their leaders and high level policy preferences.
Never said that.

Read Ronny's brilliant article about the value of having someone in charge of operations that the shareholders can hold accountable:

http://www.maxkeiser.com/2016/06/digital-leadership-is-a-major-benefit-of-the-decentralised-conglomerate-over-the-dao/


Shame on you for speaking, whether with malicious intent or careless neglect, to harm others reputations about things going on Behind the Scenes of which you know nothing.

I didn't say anything about choosing leaders or making high policy preferences.

My reply stated that based on recent articles/statements by BM and yourself, that you 'seem' to have come to the conclusion that the decentralized BTS/DPOS funding model was critically flawed.

Proposals are based in part on what resources are available to work on them.
Resources are hired based on the availability of stable funding.
A constant battle over who controls the funding light switch means no one dares hire against any line item.
So the resources remain allocated elsewhere.

Voting is overrated.  I wouldn't want to ride on an aircraft controlled by voting passengers.
Give me a benevolent whale any day.

Your quote in it's entirety clearly concludes that a system in which decentralized shareholders control the proposal funding light switch, as is the case in the current BTS model, is critically flawed as does BM's DAO article.  So I don't think I've taken those statements out of context.

I also didn't reference the apparent large scale selling of BM, (& the whole Larimer family for that matter https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,22098.msg287807.html#msg287807 -  a few days prior to the April 1st STEEM announcement) which adds further credence to your potential lack of confidence in the BTS model at the time.

It's true that BM sold off some significant portion of his BTS holdings prior to formally announcing his departure to Steemit, but I guess it's been obvious for some time that he was dumping shares (with BitShares being so transparent, moves by whales are usually noticed within hours and BM's accounts were closely watched).

If your position now is that you continue to have enormous faith in BTS and work on it relentlessly behind the scenes & that I should be ashamed for drawing those completely false, 'careless, shameful and malicious' conclusions that's fine.

It's fortunate that those with intractably bitter attitudes want to stay here on BitSharesTalk where no one will see their posts and only positive, optimistic people want to move their constructive, forward thinking opinions into the bright, puffy cloud of Steem where snide comments quickly sink into oblivion.

Unfortunately we're not on Steem, so my snide (critical?) comments won't quickly sink into oblivion but fortunately I posted on BitSharestalk where no-one will see it anyway :)

32
On a side note, Dan Larimer has not been gone from BitShares for anywhere near as long, nor anywhere near as completely, as Jakub (the OP) was when he was mia for many months. No doubt Jakub was off doing valuable research and work - although he gave us no intimation of that. Should we expect any less of Bytemaster, who's hiatus will likely much benefit BitShares in the long run?

Please everyone take that into consideration when evaluating this thread.

All that's left of BM is his "promise" to offer worker proposals (in some undefined point in time) for the migration of his STEEM inventions *if* they prove to be successful.

He has no longer any significant stake in BTS.
He has no plans to offer any worker proposals, apart from emergency fixes.   
And he's not even willing to promote OpenLedger as a trading platform for STEEM.

For me this is enough to call it "gone".

Yeah Dan and Stan seem to have both come to similar conclusions about decentralization, BTS & DPOS. 

https://steemit.com/crypto-news/@dan/is-the-dao-going-to-be-doa

Quote
Smart Contracts cannot fix Dumb People BitShares had all of the tools, the talent, and the money to do great things if only the BTS holders could agree on what should be done, who should be paid, and how much should be spent.

Voting is overrated.  I wouldn't want to ride on an aircraft controlled by voting passengers.
Give me a benevolent whale any day.

So I wish them luck with their centralized, benevolent whale blockchain, combined with all BM's tools & talent, I'm sure they'll be a Darwinian guaranteed success. BTS, LSK, DAO, DASH etc. don't stand a chance :)

(While I agree many aspects of it are challenging, I think they've come to some wrong conclusions by ignoring/discounting the role they played in the state of affairs BTS found itself and I also believe it's those that continue to develop the tools and incentives to make that process effective as well as lower the barriers to entry that will be the most rewarded.)   



33
Bitcoin has not had any innovation for 7 years and look where it is...

You are comparing apples and oranges. Bitcoin is successful despite its lack of innovation. That is how powerful the first mover advantage is.

Counterpoint to your argument: Ethereum has innovated a lot and isn't stopping yet and look at its marketcap rise.

Besides first mover advantage it's because people want a lot stability & certainty from the pure digital currencies like BTC, LTC, PPC etc. so their lack of innovation (Change) is often a positive.

The decentralized companies who aim to bring something to the market other than a limited, immutable crypto-currency have to be more innovative, with additional revenue generating (in future) products/apps in order to increase their value. (However for both, increased utility, accessibility and third party integration often adds more value than more expensive development work. eg. Payment processor/exchange/bank/Azure integration etc.)

34
I am against a rebranding... BitShares has an excellent brand and logo. Who would want to start from scratch?
Come on, we are talking about several million market cap and you are worried about a logo whose good replacement might cost at most a few thousand USD?

The logo is not bad, I agree but the problem is the name, not the logo.
Every single marketing professional on this forum has told us that the name is a nightmare for marketing purposes, both in terms of wider consumer adoption and for the purpose of business pitches.

Regrading the "excellent brand" - at this stage we have no brand to speak of.

I know you're very passionate about this topic and had the rebranding discussion previously when you ran the poll for changing BitShares to 'Graphene'  https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,17989.0.html and only 20% were in favour.

It would be a very divisive event imo & BitShares after 2.5 years is a very well established brand with loads of valuable BitShares content that will give the man in the street a lot of confidence that this isn't some fly by night blockchain once we become more user friendly.

What BitShares has been lacking is the clear brand message of 'What is BitShares' but that can and should be addressed without a full rebrand imo.

Unrelated but was just looking at Bitshares on google trends, interesting how high we spiked in March this year with the Mircrosoft Azure addition. https://www.google.co.uk/trends/explore#q=bitshares

(A relatively low cost easy integration/brand association that drove BTS interest to the third highest levels seen and our largest volume day ever I think. Imagine if the whales hadn't been selling into that. That's a good example of what we should be doing more of at this stage imo.)

35
I would lean towards thinking re-branding is a bad idea (Even though both 'Bit' & 'Shares' is fairly weak imo) and also DEX as others have suggested is very limiting.

I'm in favour of bringing someone into a leadership type role, I don't think that conflicts with BTS values, provided they are selected via shareholders. (It would be nice to have some fairly fresh blood but obviously with an established track record in crypto paid very well via DPOS. Perhaps we should make a wish list of the best people in crypto for the job and start from there.)

1. No matter if Dan Larimer has indeed dumped most of his stake or not, he is gone. The market cap has surely suffered because of that but overall it's a good thing. It feels to me like a toxic relationship has finally come to an end.
For me, on the intellectual level Dan is one of the brightest people in the industry, but as a business partner and a community leader he is quite destructive.
Now it's time to move on: enjoy the good aspect (i.e. Dan's genius we inherited in the Graphene code) and let go of the bad aspect (i.e. play the victim and blame Dan for being disloyal to us).

I know very little about development but you'd have to say Dan is top 3 at least in terms of blockchain developers but unfortunately often extremely weak in other areas.

Quote
Research carried out by the Carnegie Institute of Technology shows that 85 percent of your financial success is due to skills in “human engineering,” your personality and ability to communicate, negotiate, and lead. Shockingly, only 15 percent is due to technical knowledge. Additionally, Nobel Prize winning Israeli-American psychologist, Daniel Kahneman, found that people would rather do business with a person they like and trust rather than someone they don’t, even if the likeable person is offering a lower quality product or service at a higher price.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/keldjensen/2012/04/12/intelligence-is-overrated-what-you-really-need-to-succeed/#1812d6ee6375

I think BM is learning the above the hard way as he sees weaker projects with less talented people consistently find a much greater deal of success and recognition.


36
General Discussion / Re: Merger of STEEM and BTS
« on: June 02, 2016, 12:57:35 am »
STEEM is a Reddit-esque social media platform. What is Reddit's problem?

http://www.recode.net/2014/3/3/11624114/still-in-the-red-reddit-to-donate-one-tenth-of-ad-revenue-to-charity

Reddit's problem is that even with a massive userbase their costs are too high and their revenues are too low.
After ten years Reddit is still a loss making business model despite being the 14th most visited site in the US & 36th in the world in 2015. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reddit

Quote
As of 2015, Reddit had 542 million monthly visitors (234 million unique users), ranking 14th most visited web-site in US and 36th in the world.[6] Across 2015, Reddit saw 82.54 billion pageviews, 73.15 million submissions, 725.85 million comments, and 6.89 billion upvotes from its users.[7]

So for STEEM to be an improvement on a Reddit-esque  platform they would have to find a way to drastically increase the revenue and/or reduce the costs of that business model. STEEM have done the opposite...

Quote
Reddit hypothesized that its platform would be improved if everyone who contributed to reddit.com by posting stories, adding comments or voting were rewarded with a fair share in Reddit, Inc1. Steem aims to support social media and online communities by returning much of its value to the people who provide valuable contributions

By paying users for popular content and even for comments/voting they've drastically increased the costs of that business model. Reddit earned <$10 million in 2014, which wasn't even enough to cover expenses. (Crunch some numbers using the wiki to see why it's not worthwhile paying for content on this type of platform and/or how much you'd have to increase revenue by to justify it.)

STEEM also reduces potential revenue per user as their initial user-base will be even less likely to give up personal info, allow targeted advertising or the censoring of board content to make it more advertiser friendly & I won't even go into the differences in the PR approaches.

In practical terms this means STEEM's burn rate (monthly expenses) will presumably be extremely high (paying to acquire users and for their content) but it will achieve no/low revenue and no meaningful longer term valuation from serious investors because the potential value per user, is if anything likely negative, so it will likely run into financial issues very rapidly. 

(It also deliberately went against all the crypto-currency community's cultural regulations, which is fine, but means as a result it's unlikely to be popular/adopted as a crypto-currency in it's own right.)

This is just a personal opinon, feel free to disagree and or make counter arguments especially those more familiar with the business model and future plans but I don't see a Steem merger being an issue as I don't see it being around for long.

(Other than keeping an inflated value for long enough to justify a high percentage stake in some sort of merger I can't see the point.)

I wonder why Reddit doesn't have more advertising. Are they afraid of a negative reaction? That place has almost no ads. I guess maybe there are some in the far right column ? 

In general though Steem should be able to run far cheaper than reddit. Although if it scaled up who knows, but it will never have administrative/management staff overhead.  Only the cost of machines.

I just can't see the 'get paid to post' working in the longrun or being sustainable. Also, having large stakeholders be able to up/downvote will be distasteful to a lot of people.

Then there are all the other games being played with vesting and so on so it'll "go to the moon".

Yes Reddit historically hasn't had more advertising and censorship due to fear of negative user reaction.

A well known case study was apparently Digg, a Reddit predecessor which went from a $200 million valuation in 2008 to being sold in 2012 for $500 000 after a negative reaction to an advertiser friendly redesign and censorship. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digg

Quote
Protesting at the removal of the upcoming news page, the default setting of "My News", deleted favourites, the apparent front page domination of a handful of publishers, and the removal of the "bury" button (for voting down stories), Digg users flooded the front page with links to rival aggregators and pleaded with chief executive Kevin Rose to turn back the clock.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/pda/2010/aug/31/digg-redesign-revolt

Since 2015 Reddit has introduced a lot more censorship to make their site more advertiser friendly, more prominent advertising and a much larger advertising team but this has resulted in negative reactions that have driven traffic to competitors. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voat

Quote
In February, 2015, following accusations of censorship on Reddit, a surge of Reddit users created accounts on Voat.[18]
In early June, 2015, after Reddit banned five of its subreddits for harassment—the largest of which had around 150,000 subscribers[19][20]—many users of Reddit began to create accounts on Voat.[21] The influx of new participants temporarily overloaded the site, causing downtime.

Even with recent changes I think Reddit are only projected to make $20 million in revenue in 2016 and may still be in the red and given that the highest valuation they've raised funds at is $500 million it's hard to justify Steem's $30 million valuation imo especially as they have a no/low revenue model and have additional costs of paying content curators, creators and sometimes voters. Plus they're also paying to acquire users at the moment. So I personally think their users might have a low/no/even negative value in terms of how serious investors will value them. 

There's a similar product based on Ethereum coming soon which I haven't looked into much...

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/censorship-free-social-network-akasha-aims-to-tackle-internet-censorship-with-blockchain-technology-1464810249

Quote
the project gradually evolved into something more interconnected and social that could be compared to a decentralized Medium or Reddit.

They plan for users to earn ETH from content creation. http://akasha.world/

Quote
Moreover, the votes are bundled with ETH micro transactions so if your content is good you’ll make ETH from it – in a way, mining with your mind.

I have a feeling being based on ETH and being launched in a more transparent and crypto-currency community perceived fair way they've definitely got a good shot at gaining some initial traction & I'll be interested in looking at the business model regards how revenue for content creators etc. is created.

37
General Discussion / Re: Merger of STEEM and BTS
« on: May 30, 2016, 04:53:42 pm »
STEEM is a Reddit-esque social media platform. What is Reddit's problem?

http://www.recode.net/2014/3/3/11624114/still-in-the-red-reddit-to-donate-one-tenth-of-ad-revenue-to-charity

Reddit's problem is that even with a massive userbase their costs are too high and their revenues are too low.
After ten years Reddit is still a loss making business model despite being the 14th most visited site in the US & 36th in the world in 2015. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reddit

Quote
As of 2015, Reddit had 542 million monthly visitors (234 million unique users), ranking 14th most visited web-site in US and 36th in the world.[6] Across 2015, Reddit saw 82.54 billion pageviews, 73.15 million submissions, 725.85 million comments, and 6.89 billion upvotes from its users.[7]

So for STEEM to be an improvement on a Reddit-esque  platform they would have to find a way to drastically increase the revenue and/or reduce the costs of that business model. STEEM have done the opposite...

Quote
Reddit hypothesized that its platform would be improved if everyone who contributed to reddit.com by posting stories, adding comments or voting were rewarded with a fair share in Reddit, Inc1. Steem aims to support social media and online communities by returning much of its value to the people who provide valuable contributions

By paying users for popular content and even for comments/voting they've drastically increased the costs of that business model. Reddit earned <$10 million in 2014, which wasn't even enough to cover expenses. (Crunch some numbers using the wiki to see why it's not worthwhile paying for content on this type of platform and/or how much you'd have to increase revenue by to justify it.)

STEEM also reduces potential revenue per user as their initial user-base will be even less likely to give up personal info, allow targeted advertising or the censoring of board content to make it more advertiser friendly & I won't even go into the differences in the PR approaches.

In practical terms this means STEEM's burn rate (monthly expenses) will presumably be extremely high (paying to acquire users and for their content) but it will achieve no/low revenue and no meaningful longer term valuation from serious investors because the potential value per user, is if anything likely negative, so it will likely run into financial issues very rapidly. 

(It also deliberately went against all the crypto-currency community's cultural regulations, which is fine, but means as a result it's unlikely to be popular/adopted as a crypto-currency in it's own right.)

This is just a personal opinon, feel free to disagree and or make counter arguments especially those more familiar with the business model and future plans but I don't see a Steem merger being an issue as I don't see it being around for long.

(Other than keeping an inflated value for long enough to justify a high percentage stake in some sort of merger I can't see the point.)

38
this process of capitalizing fees ex ante comes at the cost of losing 100% asset backing for our smartcoins, which then hurts the PoS marketing message of being able to get at least the full pegged value at any time. It's a much easier story to sell that 1 bitUSD can be settled at any point for 1 USD worth of BTS. It's unnecessarily damaging to sell merchants on getting 0.95 on the dollar or whatever.

This is one of the main arguments against, but liquidity subsidies would solve this imo and probably make BitUSD even more appealing than 1-1 forced settlement.

Anyway we obviously disagree on a few issues so it will be interesting if the BitCNY change does go through whether we're able to gleam anything one way or the other.

39
Also, as a practical matter from trading...

I've invoked forced settlement many times in both bitCNY and bitUSD ...actually, today has been a weird bitUSD trading experience in that people have been dumping at about 6%-7% below peg all afternoon and i've been the highest bidder soaking up the supply. Since I can't find anyone else to buy anywhere near peg, i've been invoking forced settlement. If there were some penalty for doing this, or if assets were only 95% collateralized, i'd be doing the same stuff but at 15%+ below feed. What's the point of that?

The way i've seen forced settlement is that it acts as a natural supply reduction mechanism when we have imbalances and not enough buyers. It brings supply down to what the market is actually willing to support.

I'd speculate the reasons BitUSD holders are willing to offer a 6/7% discount today rather than waiting for 1-1 in 24 hours is because they think BTC is surging so fast that they can make up the difference. If forced settlement was 1-1 with a 4% fee they still would be unlikely to sell much lower than a 7% loss because they're unlikely to make up a 7% loss. So in a way 1-1 might be of limited value other than to traders like yourself who are able to make good daily gains in these scenarios.

While from the shorts perspective a lot of them are going to wake up tomorrow having been unexpectedly force settled and then have to compete with each other if they want to rapidly re-short but then find there are not a lot of willing BitUSD longs because they all want to be in BTC atm so this will disrupt the market, discourage shorts and ultimately raise premiums. A 4% fee would have forced longs to wait 24 hours because it wouldn't make sense to sell at a 9-10% loss today and shorts would have received some compensation for having provided liquidity.

If liquidity close to 1-1 was something we wanted to provide to SmartCoin customers then liquidity subsidies would be the way to do it rather than disrupting the market, negatively impacting shorts & raising the premium the way the current system does imo.   

40
We have a good enough system the way it is, we just need to get more traders into it. Traders are just one group, btw. It'd be great to get actual end users for our smartcoins, like people using PoS apps for bitUSD, bitCNY, bitEUR, etc. like @kenCode is doing. 100% collateralized assets are a big selling point for that application.

I'm all for subsidizing collateral used to maintain shorts, but just prefer doing it directly via some yield. I'm also fine without subsidies bc of the indirect benefits of shorting mentioned earlier.

Also keep in mind, this proposal is to change one of the markets on the DEX, bitCNY. Doing so would unnecessarily complicate the DEX with markets trading with arbitrarily different rules.

Competitors like NBT have no guaranteed redeem-ability at all (& I think they're struggling in this BTC surge) I think merivercap's BitCash has zero as well. I disagree with both those strategies but I do believe 95% is more than sufficient for the market to trade at 1-1 and will significantly reduce the spread without the need for subsidies & given that we haven't even subsidized SmartCoin liquidity yet I'm not sure how realistic it is.

Given the stagnation of the 2.0 SmartCoin markets which have been operating with the current rules for over 7 months, I think trying a rule change at this stage is warranted.

I think it's good that it's just one of the markets as we'll be able to see if it's a positive change before applying it elsewhere. Personally I'd prefer to make the change bigger so the differences would be more easily observable & actionable.



41
The purpose of forced settlement is really to give market participants confidence SmartCoins are backed by actual collateral that can be redeemed for most of their value in an emergency. So even forced settlement at 0.95 would be very attractive.

Absolutely, the purpose of settlement is to give market participants confidence that our assets are backed by collateral. The 100% settlement at the peg means our assets are 100% collateralized, which i certainly prefer. Any discount from that, like 0.95, just means we'd be advertising smartcoins with 95% collateral banking. I don't see that as beneficial.

All market participants go into trades knowing the rules of the game ahead of time. i like 100% collateralilzation over any arbitrary fractional value, but if the system changed (which it changes too often IMO), then i'd just rationally discount the value on the long side and price my bids at 95% or whatever the collateral value. All we'd do is skew the bid-ask window in the other direction.

Like i've repeated many times on this forum, i do see value in providing incentive to traders willing to short assets into existence. Right now that compensation is implicit with high spreads  and shorts get leveraged upside. That's been enough for me to trade frequently on both sides of the market. However, if there is a big desire in this community to further compensate short traders, then i suggest directly subsidizing shorts with some yield on BTS locked in collateral; penalizing buy-side traders who want to settle assets at peg is not the best way to provide this subsidy.

The reason longs don't need guaranteed liquidity from shorts at $1.00 to buy at $1.01 is the same reason shorts don't need guaranteed liquidity from longs at $1.10 to short at $1.09.

Everyday people trade billions in CMX gold contracts even though they are hardly backed at all. If the shorts were forced to guarantee liquidity at the gold price for the longs, the increased cost burden would make the spread too wide and effectively kill the market which is what we've done to SmartCoins.

Having forced settlement at say 0.96 or say 1-1 with a 4% fee would be similar to a service like bullionvault.

Traders agree they are buying and selling vaulted gold using the current gold price as a reference but to actually redeem it from the underlying its collateralised with in the event you couldn't find a buyer/other would cost you about 4-5% but it still trades at 1-1 with the actual gold price.

The point is if you know there is actual collateral backing the token even if you'd have to pay 4-5% to get it, you can comfortably buy and sell it round 1-1 and make a market. If you place a burden on either buyer/seller/shorter that they have to pay 1-1 whenever someone else wants to settle, the premium they will price for being a forced market maker/liquidity provider at 1-1 will effectively kill the market.

42
I'm not seeing the big issue with forced settlement. You aren't losing anything you haven' already lost when forced to settle, the system is just closing out your position earlier than you might have liked, but you're welcome to re-open another position with the returned collateral. This simple mechanism keeps the entire system stable by cutting imbalanced positions early.

The idea of modifying system rules market by market instead of having a coherent system doesn't at all seem worth it in this case.

You're forcing shorts to play the role of market makers for longs providing liquidity on demand at 1-1.

A trader doesn't have to charge you a significant premium but a market maker who is guaranteeing you liquidity at 1-1 whenever you want to sell will charge you a very big premium for that privilege. 

So a large part of the huge premium you're seeing on the SmartCoin markets, are market maker premiums charged by shorts for the risk and opportunity cost of providing liquidity to longs.

Imagine if your BitUSD long position (or any other crypto position you hold) could be converted at any time to BTS/BTC, would you be willing to pay close to 1-1 for it?

Rather let the free market bring buyers and sellers together and don't force either side to play market maker in a tight range around the peg. The purpose of forced settlement is really to give market participants confidence SmartCoins are backed by actual collateral that can be redeemed for most of their value in an emergency. So even forced settlement at 0.95 would be very attractive.

Then you could let market participants buy/sell/short without being forced to play market maker and if you did want some market making or guaranteed liquidity near 1-1 because the value to BTS of SmartCoin adoption is high, then you could subsidize it and pay market makers so that the cost isn't built into a wider peg that makes smartcoins unappealing.   


43
General Discussion / Re: IS BTS dead?
« on: May 28, 2016, 11:25:23 pm »
From the mumble today according to Dan:

Bitshare's network won't die... but it's hard to find justification for the bitshares token to have a higher market cap, even if the network does continue to grow.

Congrats bitshares holders, please tell me how bullish this is!

Well it's hard to have a justification till Nov 5th when they, the largest holders of PTS & AGS and therefore merger shares are likely selling.

However the primary business model for BTS continues to be SmartCoins imo but they do require BTS to introduce liquidity subsidies and continue to make the DEX as user friendly as possible. (I'm also in favour of Yield subsidies for the period of time SmartCoin growth outpaces it.)

If demand for Smartcoins (Backed by BTS) grow over time then demand for BTS will grow with it until such time as the SmartCoin market reaches maturity. (Possibly many years in the future.) At that stage you would monetize your customer base through transaction fees in order to generate a return for shareholders like a more a traditional business. (As well as sell them other related products and services on BTS.)



Another business model on BTS is also a pure DEX model with trading fees for a range of user issued assets. While less lucrative imo, with CEX's like Coinbase valued at >$500 million there's also some potential there by growing that market to become the leading DEX & monetizing that customer base.

This is stark contrast to Steemit, which I see as being sub $1 million/uninvestable.

Quote
Reddit hypothesized that its platform would be improved if everyone who contributed to reddit.com by posting stories, adding comments or voting were rewarded with a fair share in Reddit, Inc1. Steem aims to support social media and online communities by returning much of its value to the people who provide valuable contributions

It has an almost guaranteed constant loss making business model by paying users to subscribe and paying them again for content while having limited potential for future monetization as demonstrated by Reddit.

Quote
As of 2015, Reddit had 542 million monthly visitors (234 million unique users), ranking 14th most visited web-site in US and 36th in the world.[6] Across 2015, Reddit saw 82.54 billion pageviews, 73.15 million submissions, 725.85 million comments, and 6.89 billion upvotes from its users.[7]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reddit

Even with those stunning metrics Reddit only generated $8 million in ad revenue in 2014 and less than $1 million from their subscription service I believe.

http://www.recode.net/2014/3/3/11624114/still-in-the-red-reddit-to-donate-one-tenth-of-ad-revenue-to-charity

Even after 10 years REDDIT is still in the RED. (It costs them more to operate Reddit than they gain in revenue.)  Imagine if they had to pay for all the good/popular content on top of that... (Try some numbers, it's scary :) )

So it will take many years of work to get to a fraction of Reddit's size and even then the opportunity is not very lucrative plus their, (Steem) model adds a lot of additional costs.

(Reddit users are also fickle and attempts to monetize further have been met with resistance and loss of userbase. Reddit also donate 10% to charity for positive PR. This indicates not only the difficulty of monetizing something similar to a Reddit type platform but also the fickleness of the users and the importance of positive PR. Given the unpopularity with the way they launched it's unlikely Steem will have the positive public perception needed among crypto-currency users (which may make up a large part of its initial userbase/target market) to gain strong initial traction either. You could hope that adoption of your currency outpaces costs but again it would be unpopular and viewed perhaps rightly as centralized so is unlikely to be adopted to any meaningful degree in it's own right either.)   


44
General Discussion / Re: Claims of BM saying BitShares has failed
« on: May 28, 2016, 05:00:26 pm »
Still waiting for BM to acknowledge my post: https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,22317.msg292330.html#msg292330

Publicly FUD BTS, Pump the premined Steemit, then merge BTS as a minority stake into Steemit?! Hodling is becoming increasingly difficult, feeling like sunk cost fallacy the lower we go :(

keep away of  Steemit
Tell that to BM https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,22317.msg290945.html#msg290945

Did you see my post above? What are the current user metrics for Steemit? I would be surprised if it's even a $500 000 DAC.

Steemit is most like Reddit imo

Quote
As of June 2015, there were 36 million user accounts.

As of 2015, Reddit had 542 million monthly visitors (234 million unique users), ranking 14th most visited web-site in US and 36th in the world.[6] Across 2015, Reddit saw 82.54 billion pageviews, 73.15 million submissions, 725.85 million comments, and 6.89 billion upvotes from its users.[7

In October 2014 Reddit raised $50 million in a funding round... Their investment saw the company valued at $500 million.[10][11]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reddit

So Reddit is valued at like $15 per user?

So Steemit at a valuation of $30 million implies they expect to have 2 million users in the near future.

That's not taking into account that Steemit are actually directly paying for those users, are also directly paying for their content and have no monetisation so I imagine they will actually experience a significant loss per user for the forseeable future so their valuation should be...


45
General Discussion / Re: IS BTS dead?
« on: May 26, 2016, 08:45:35 pm »
The merger continues to be a selling pressure drag till nov 5th.

BTS is a great blockchain. Primarily I hope we can fund SmartCoin liquidity, bring down the forced settlement level if it's shown to work on BitCNY and also ideally fund a SmartCoin yield promotion. Then BTS will be the place you can hold value in tightly ranged major commodities and currencies & earn yield on the blockchain. I think that will be the growth engine for the next few years.

People have also expressed a lot of interest in a bond market so I hope that is the next major feature BTS funds.

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