You forget that smartcoins uses collateral in BTS. The need for stable crypto asset will rise and these markets will grow.
BlockPay will probably help with that.
Each BitUSD is 2$ locked in BTS.
One million BitUSD in circulation means 2 millions $ in BTS bought. How much do you think the bts price would increase with ppl buying for 2 million $ of BTS ?
The plateform is perfect for creating all kind of index, baskets, ... which will also contribute at locking more collateral.
With a good commercialisation, I'm conffident that bittwenty could bring signigicant value to BTS.
The referral system may also take off later when we reach critical mass. That will also bring more fees.
Stealth transfers will also bring more fee to the system.
The other features still to be implemented ( as the bond market ) will also produce lots of fees.
There is also the unknows. Anytime, a new company can implement itself on top of BitShares and develop a new feature using the FBA.
IMO, your view on the BTS potential is too pessimistic.
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So here is the problem... You need to find people willing to create bitUSD. No one has figured it out yet. The only reason to do that would be that you think the value of BTS will rise vs bitUSD. If BTS guaranteed you part of the profits, the value of BTS would go up. This is how stocks work, the value generally increases as the companies profits increase.
Unfortunately there is no real plan to make BTS profitable. The governance is poor and decisions on fee's are often deadlocked. A lot of what you have in your post would be great to have (bond market, stealth, referral system) but the referral system was killed and the bond market is barely and idea in someones head. I know blockpay is working on stealth, but they are going to be the ones reaping the fee rewards. Exactly why I'm saying it's the companies who use the BTS platform that will get rich. Not the BTS shareholders. BTS shareholders are basically securing the companies blockchain transactions for free. Not a profitable business model.
I'm not saying the potential of the BTS platform is bleak. I'm saying if you are a BTS shareholder, the potential of the token value increasing is bleak.
Surely, all other things being equal, if there is more real-world usage of the platform (which also means people are trading/spending/hodling smartcoins), there has to be more collateral locked up, which means a higher BTS/FIAT price.
To the best of my present understanding, the above is irrefutable.
If so, we need to think what sort of initiatives can bring a wider range of users into the system.
I have some ideas, but don't see any of them taking off until we have STEALTH - it could be my bias, though, but me personally, I'm not going to be paying for anything with Smartcoins that's tied to anything in my name, that's a tool of oppression and not a tool of liberation.
As for bringing more traders in, I have a really hard time believing the platform will be attractive without, at least, stop-loss orders.
Stop-profit would also be nice.
I think those two are severely under-rated as a reason for serious traders avoiding bitshares right now.