Author Topic: Prediction Markets now available in GUI  (Read 7666 times)

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Offline sports-owner

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #30 on: January 26, 2016, 04:43:18 am »
I currently have 4 PMs open.

SPORTS.SBLAFC will be worth 1 BTS if the Broncos beat the Panthers in the SuperBowl.

REPNOMTRUMP will be worth 1 BTS is Donald Trump is selected as the Republican nominee for President of the United States.,

DEMNOMCLINTON will be worth 1 BTS if Hillary Clinto is selected as the Democrat nominee for President of the United States.

REPGENSIXTEEN will be worth 1 BTS if the Republican nominee is elected as the next President of the United States.


At this point you are reliant on me to close the markets out accurately.  I would make these committee fed assets, but I have heard nothing from the committee leading me to believe they are interested in doing this.  If there is anyone else that would like to step up to be part of a multi sig account to close these out I am willing to consider it.

If there are any other uncertain outcomes you would like to see a PM for please let me know.

Offline morpheus

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #31 on: January 26, 2016, 06:19:25 pm »
[member=41441]sports-owner[/member]

The PM can also be used as a binary options market.  Some users have requested being able to trade assets such as oil and stock indicies.  Perhaps we could create a few markets for these assets.

For example,

Traditional vanilla options markets are structured and labeled like this:

SPX160331C1900 - where SPX represents the stock index (S&P 500), 160331 represents March 31, 2016, C means it is a call option, and 1900 represents a strike price of 1900 for the option contract


I propose creating the following markets initially:

WTICRUDEOIL123016_4000     -     If the price of WTI CRUDE OIL is above $40.00 on December 30, 2016 17:00 ET, then 1 share of WTICRUDEOIL123016_4000 is worth 1 bts.  I use $40.00 because current futures contracts for the December contract are just under $40. 

SPX123016_187500 - If the price of the S&P 500 is above $1875.00 on December 30, 2016 at 4:00 PM ET, then 1 share of SPX123016_187500 is worth 1 bts.  I use $1875.00 becasue current futures contracts for the December contract are just above $1875.00

Offline xeroc

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #32 on: January 26, 2016, 07:10:25 pm »
Great idea .. use a privatized prediction market, find trustworthy resolvers, bring liquidity and become rich :)
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Offline hrossik

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #33 on: January 26, 2016, 08:55:39 pm »
From the moment I read about PMs on Bitshares I have been thinking about how we could make them more useful ( I don't care about outcomes of US elections too much, nor sports ). And I just found following idea, what do you think about it?
Quote
Hanson has been a vocal proponent of using prediction markets (or what he also calls “idea futures”) to reform how we deal with controversies in science, academia, and politics. In "Could Gambling Save Science", he writes:
Quote
If the primary way that academics are now rewarded for being right, rather than popular, is an informal process for staking their reputation, which has various biases because of its informality, and if we want a better reputation game, why not literally make bets and formalize the process?
Imagine a betting pool or market on most disputed science questions, with the going odds available to the popular media, and treated socially as the current academic consensus. Imagine that academics are expected to "put up or shut up" and accompany claims with at least token bets, and that statistics are collected on how well people do. Imagine that funding agencies subsidize pools on questions of interest to them, and that research labs pay for much of their research with winnings from previous pools. And imagine that anyone could play, either to take a stand on an important issue, or to insure against technological risk.
This would be an "idea futures" market, which I offer as an alternative to existing academic social institutions. Somewhat like a corn futures market, where one can bet on the future price of corn, here one bets on the future settlement of a present scientific controversy.

There are more ideas for usage of PMs. Here is the source.
BTS: hr0550

Offline sudo

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #34 on: January 27, 2016, 01:54:04 am »
make it esay enough for users

Offline svk

Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #35 on: January 27, 2016, 07:11:18 am »
I'd like to make the interface more suitable for prediction markets but to be honest I'm not sure how it should look like. Anyone have some examples of other binary market interfaces? Or would like to provide some mockups of how they imagine it should look like?
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Offline twitter

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #36 on: January 27, 2016, 07:17:38 am »
 +5% +5%
witness:

TravelsAsia

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #37 on: January 27, 2016, 01:44:00 pm »
I'd like to make the interface more suitable for prediction markets but to be honest I'm not sure how it should look like. Anyone have some examples of other binary market interfaces? Or would like to provide some mockups of how they imagine it should look like?

http://financialproreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Capital-Option-affiliates-VIPaffilaites-VIP-Affiliates-binary-options-trading-platform.png

Offline Empirical1.2

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #38 on: January 27, 2016, 03:31:37 pm »
I'd like to make the interface more suitable for prediction markets but to be honest I'm not sure how it should look like. Anyone have some examples of other binary market interfaces? Or would like to provide some mockups of how they imagine it should look like?

I don't know if there's anything useful here, but this is a political market that gained traction pretty fast and seems fairly simple to use.
https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Featured

I think the fact that you need to short and sell is the thing that complicates BTS prediction markets the most for the end user.

Also many users might be familiar with or want to make comparisons with traditional betting odds.
So it would be really good if the current PM price was also shown in traditional odds so people would know if it was a better/worse bet than they could get elsewhere. http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/how-to-convert-odds

If you want to take the island burn the boats

iHashFury

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #39 on: January 27, 2016, 03:41:06 pm »
Should we have a prefix for a prediction market to stop asset names getting untidy?

Offline sports-owner

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #40 on: January 27, 2016, 04:03:52 pm »
[member=41441]sports-owner[/member]

The PM can also be used as a binary options market.  Some users have requested being able to trade assets such as oil and stock indicies.  Perhaps we could create a few markets for these assets.

For example,

Traditional vanilla options markets are structured and labeled like this:

SPX160331C1900 - where SPX represents the stock index (S&P 500), 160331 represents March 31, 2016, C means it is a call option, and 1900 represents a strike price of 1900 for the option contract


I propose creating the following markets initially:

WTICRUDEOIL123016_4000     -     If the price of WTI CRUDE OIL is above $40.00 on December 30, 2016 17:00 ET, then 1 share of WTICRUDEOIL123016_4000 is worth 1 bts.  I use $40.00 because current futures contracts for the December contract are just under $40. 

SPX123016_187500 - If the price of the S&P 500 is above $1875.00 on December 30, 2016 at 4:00 PM ET, then 1 share of SPX123016_187500 is worth 1 bts.  I use $1875.00 becasue current futures contracts for the December contract are just above $1875.00

Here you are.

http://cryptofresh.com/a/WTICRUDE
http://cryptofresh.com/a/SPFIVE

enjoy

Offline oldmine

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #41 on: January 27, 2016, 04:14:24 pm »
I'd like to make the interface more suitable for prediction markets but to be honest I'm not sure how it should look like. Anyone have some examples of other binary market interfaces? Or would like to provide some mockups of how they imagine it should look like?

https://www.predictious.com/economics/bitcoin-new-all-time-high-2016/2000

Offline sports-owner

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #42 on: January 27, 2016, 04:24:33 pm »
I'm not qualified to write these markets nor to close them out.  You could create a UIA and call it SCIENCE then open prediction markets that are backed by SCIENCE.  You could issue SCIENCE only to qualified Scientist. These Scientists could then bet, and be rewarded with more SCIENCE if they win.  I don't know how you could give them a monetary benefit outside of sharedropping on top of the SCIENCE asset, since we wouldn't want non scientist to be able to purchase SCIENCE and bet with it 

From the moment I read about PMs on Bitshares I have been thinking about how we could make them more useful ( I don't care about outcomes of US elections too much, nor sports ). And I just found following idea, what do you think about it?
Quote
Hanson has been a vocal proponent of using prediction markets (or what he also calls “idea futures”) to reform how we deal with controversies in science, academia, and politics. In "Could Gambling Save Science", he writes:
Quote
If the primary way that academics are now rewarded for being right, rather than popular, is an informal process for staking their reputation, which has various biases because of its informality, and if we want a better reputation game, why not literally make bets and formalize the process?
Imagine a betting pool or market on most disputed science questions, with the going odds available to the popular media, and treated socially as the current academic consensus. Imagine that academics are expected to "put up or shut up" and accompany claims with at least token bets, and that statistics are collected on how well people do. Imagine that funding agencies subsidize pools on questions of interest to them, and that research labs pay for much of their research with winnings from previous pools. And imagine that anyone could play, either to take a stand on an important issue, or to insure against technological risk.
This would be an "idea futures" market, which I offer as an alternative to existing academic social institutions. Somewhat like a corn futures market, where one can bet on the future price of corn, here one bets on the future settlement of a present scientific controversy.

There are more ideas for usage of PMs. Here is the source.

Offline Akado

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #43 on: January 27, 2016, 06:48:02 pm »
Should we have a prefix for a prediction market to stop asset names getting untidy?

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TravelsAsia

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Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« Reply #44 on: January 28, 2016, 10:58:04 pm »
I'd like to make the interface more suitable for prediction markets but to be honest I'm not sure how it should look like. Anyone have some examples of other binary market interfaces? Or would like to provide some mockups of how they imagine it should look like?

http://financialproreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Capital-Option-affiliates-VIPaffilaites-VIP-Affiliates-binary-options-trading-platform.png

Anyone else like this look? It would make life so much easier for anyone wanting to participate that doesn't have a crypto background?