Author Topic: 111* days estimated for Difficulty to retarget. Could this kill PTS?  (Read 50989 times)

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Offline liondani

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Re: 42 days estimated for Difficulty to retarget. Could this kill PTS?
« Reply #150 on: March 19, 2014, 08:57:56 am »
bitcoin is a big experiment... why not PTS as well?  :)

Offline maqifrnswa

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Re: 42 days estimated for Difficulty to retarget. Could this kill PTS?
« Reply #151 on: March 19, 2014, 05:41:34 pm »
~18 days ago it was 42 also
15 days ago it was 42
today it is 37

So it went from ~0 days/day to ~0.3 days/day. I'm forecasting that the rate will continue to increase.

Your information is wrong.
It constantly swings all over the place. One moment it is 30, then 35 days and then 47 days.
Fact of the matter; the estimated difficulty is still dropping and since the snapshot the estimate hasn't been under 30 days. And that is 3 weeks ago!!!

This means the interest in the share is still getting less each day and the estimated will stay the same. It will only get shorter when only the few die hard miners are left mining this. You have no idea when this will happen. But it will take at least one more month and quite possibly 2 at least.

What you will see happen is the same as the Ron Paul Coin has had in the past. Interest is huge > everyone mines > difficulty shoots through the roof > everyone stops mining > difficulty drops to an extreme > takes a loooong time for the amount of blocks to have passed > the blocks is past > everyone drops onto the coin again and mines like crazy > rinse and repeat.

you're right on re:RPC. oscillations may become the norm for PTS since every snapshot will cause a shock to the mining market. The built in lag in retarget will cause oscillations, no way around it without hardforking.

However, the trend is currently towards increasing hashrate (and is continuing the trend toast pointed out)
Time to retarget: 27d 18:33:18 (2014-04-16 20:56:31 UTC+9)
Network hashing speed:
Last 100 blocks: 5,183,071.87 cpm ETA: 33d 16:33:40
Last  50 blocks: 6,287,297.60 cpm ETA: 27d 18:33:18
Last  15 blocks: 6,675,888.98 cpm ETA: 26d 03:45:22
Last   5 blocks: 6,937,143.86 cpm ETA: 25d 04:06:52

so over the past 100 blocks hash rate has been increasing, most likely due to discussions on new DACs and a corresponding rise in PTS value.
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Offline Schwede65

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Re: 42 days estimated for Difficulty to retarget. Could this kill PTS?
« Reply #152 on: March 20, 2014, 10:07:14 am »
~18 days ago it was 42 also
15 days ago it was 42
today it is 37

So it went from ~0 days/day to ~0.3 days/day. I'm forecasting that the rate will continue to increase.

Your information is wrong.
It constantly swings all over the place. One moment it is 30, then 35 days and then 47 days.
Fact of the matter; the estimated difficulty is still dropping and since the snapshot the estimate hasn't been under 30 days. And that is 3 weeks ago!!!

This means the interest in the share is still getting less each day and the estimated will stay the same. It will only get shorter when only the few die hard miners are left mining this. You have no idea when this will happen. But it will take at least one more month and quite possibly 2 at least.

What you will see happen is the same as the Ron Paul Coin has had in the past. Interest is huge > everyone mines > difficulty shoots through the roof > everyone stops mining > difficulty drops to an extreme > takes a loooong time for the amount of blocks to have passed > the blocks is past > everyone drops onto the coin again and mines like crazy > rinse and repeat.

you're right on re:RPC. oscillations may become the norm for PTS since every snapshot will cause a shock to the mining market. The built in lag in retarget will cause oscillations, no way around it without hardforking.

However, the trend is currently towards increasing hashrate (and is continuing the trend toast pointed out)
Time to retarget: 27d 18:33:18 (2014-04-16 20:56:31 UTC+9)
Network hashing speed:
Last 100 blocks: 5,183,071.87 cpm ETA: 33d 16:33:40
Last  50 blocks: 6,287,297.60 cpm ETA: 27d 18:33:18
Last  15 blocks: 6,675,888.98 cpm ETA: 26d 03:45:22
Last   5 blocks: 6,937,143.86 cpm ETA: 25d 04:06:52

so over the past 100 blocks hash rate has been increasing, most likely due to discussions on new DACs and a corresponding rise in PTS value.

new numbers:

Blocks to retarget: 1589

Time to retarget: 32d 18:25:53 (2014-04-22 13:29:03 UTC+9)

Network hashing speed:
Last 100 blocks: 5,124,494.03 cpm ETA: 33d 12:08:23
Last  50 blocks: 5,239,885.17 cpm ETA: 32d 18:25:53
Last  15 blocks: 4,674,080.41 cpm ETA: 36d 17:37:48
Last   5 blocks: 4,034,575.72 cpm ETA: 42d 13:22:26

hashrate goes down - the real point is the blocks before retarget: 1589

Offline Hukkel

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Re: 42 days estimated for Difficulty to retarget. Could this kill PTS?
« Reply #153 on: March 20, 2014, 11:37:53 am »
That is what I meant. It shifts up and down continuesly.

Value of PTS has risen 10% since 2 days.

But overall the dot on the horizon is still over 30 days away.

And remember that prior to reaching block 1589 people will already start mining it to be the first to profit from the lower diff.

So the diff will not reach 0,0129. Because the startup will be calculated as well.

Offline pafnucy

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Re: 42 days estimated for Difficulty to retarget. Could this kill PTS?
« Reply #154 on: March 29, 2014, 03:11:13 pm »
Blocks to retarget: 1064
Time to retarget: 14d 01:53:27 (2014-04-13 01:59:22 UTC+9)

Are we going to just ride it out? I keep mining as I don't pay for electricity but I am a bit miffed as I continue out of sentiment and not a rational economic decision.

Offline mf-tzo

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Re: 42 days estimated for Difficulty to retarget. Could this kill PTS?
« Reply #155 on: March 30, 2014, 12:04:18 am »
I am not a tech guy so I don't understand much of what you guys are talking about here but I am getting worried..

If I understand correctly, if miners stop mining PTS then the network will not be safe? Attacks can happen and I can wake up a nice morning and realise that my wallet is empty? Or I missunderstood something with the checkpoints that Barwizi was talking about?

Can someone explain me in very simple terms what does "time to retarget 14days" mean? Is there a way someone can watch that if he is not a miner?

I must be one of the very few people that didn't sell any PTS after the 28th snapshop but instead kept buying more because I believed in their long term value. Although it was well expected by everyone that PTS will devalue and was well communicated in the forum. Are we in a similar situation now? Do we expect the value of PTS to fall further? I wouldn't like to be again the guy who kept his PTS instead of selling them now and buy them again at a lower price in the future...The 28th mistake was more than enough to devalue the m2m of my portfolio in half... :(

Offline toast

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Re: 42 days estimated for Difficulty to retarget. Could this kill PTS?
« Reply #156 on: March 30, 2014, 12:12:24 am »
If there are not enough miners someone could double-spend against an exchange. Nobody can steal your pts, ever.

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Do not use this post as information for making any important decisions. The only agreements I ever make are informal and non-binding. Take the same precautions as when dealing with a compromised account, scammer, sockpuppet, etc.

Offline pafnucy

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Re: 42 days estimated for Difficulty to retarget. Could this kill PTS?
« Reply #157 on: March 30, 2014, 10:12:43 pm »
Can someone explain me in very simple terms what does "time to retarget 14days" mean? Is there a way someone can watch that if he is not a miner?
Time to retarget is anticipated date when the difficulty of mining drops in some algorithm-defined fashion. Reducing the difficulty increases profits for miners and makes it more attractive to mine as compared to other alt-coins. You can track it here http://mrx.im/pts.php


Offline maqifrnswa

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Re: 42 days estimated for Difficulty to retarget. Could this kill PTS?
« Reply #159 on: April 08, 2014, 05:50:04 pm »
Get ready for a 70% drop in difficulty. It's pretty interesting that the estimate over a month ago was only 2 days off. This has been interesting to watch, it will also be interesting to see the oscillations in difficulty that will probably follow.

Blocks to retarget: 276
Measured: 93.15%
Estimated difficulty: 0.01073107 (29.62%)
Time to retarget: 3d 09:45:42 (2014-04-12 12:33:02 UTC+9)

Network hashing speed:
Last 100 blocks: 9,174,716.69 cpm ETA: 3d 06:00:52
Last  50 blocks: 8,754,203.82 cpm ETA: 3d 09:45:42
Last  15 blocks: 11,889,974.79 cpm ETA: 2d 12:11:55
Last   5 blocks: 9,883,557.28 cpm ETA: 3d 00:25:09
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Offline Brekyrself

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Re: 42 days estimated for Difficulty to retarget. Could this kill PTS?
« Reply #160 on: April 08, 2014, 07:26:28 pm »
Finally, now we just need more miners on pools besides ypool to spread out the hash.  1GH could use some support!

Offline maqifrnswa

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Re: 42 days estimated for Difficulty to retarget. Could this kill PTS?
« Reply #161 on: April 11, 2014, 08:38:17 pm »
BOOM!
http://mrx.im/pts.php?cpm=2940

the race is on...
next difficulty change in < one week...

Blocks to retarget: 4028
Measured: 0.10%
Estimated difficulty: 0.02322265 (215.83%)
Time to retarget: 32d 19:31:07 (2014-05-15 01:08:09 UTC+9)

Network hashing speed:
Last 100 blocks: 3,408,465.98 cpm ETA: 37d 22:12:58
Last  50 blocks: 3,939,513.35 cpm ETA: 32d 19:31:07
Last  15 blocks: 8,591,573.26 cpm ETA: 15d 01:06:09
Last   5 blocks: 18,122,791.36 cpm ETA: 7d 03:11:24

http://mrx.im/pts.php?cpm=2940
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Offline Bigboppa

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Re: 42 days estimated for Difficulty to retarget. Could this kill PTS?
« Reply #162 on: April 11, 2014, 10:08:50 pm »
It looks like consolidating at ~2 weeks for next difficulty change - too good to be true...

Server time: 2014-04-12 07:05:26 UTC+9

Current block: 60507 (since 2014-04-12 07:04:17 UTC+9, duration 01:09)
Current difficulty: 0.01075983
Block reward: 10.73193820 PTS
Coins generated: 1,604,496.92279500 PTS (79.59% of 2.016M PTS genarated,
                                         -104,496.92279500 PTS to BTS release)

Blocks to retarget: 4005
Measured: 0.67%
Estimated difficulty: 0.01487280 (138.23%)
Time to retarget: 20d 15:22:26 (2014-05-02 22:27:52 UTC+9)

Network hashing speed:
Last 100 blocks: 4,256,135.38 cpm ETA: 30d 04:46:17
Last  50 blocks: 6,227,064.04 cpm ETA: 20d 15:22:26
Last  15 blocks: 9,851,209.42 cpm ETA: 13d 01:07:54
Last   5 blocks: 8,079,216.43 cpm ETA: 15d 21:48:36

Offline maqifrnswa

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Re: 42 days estimated for Difficulty to retarget. Could this kill PTS?
« Reply #163 on: April 12, 2014, 04:26:26 pm »
It still looks like <7 days (4 days total)

Server time: 2014-04-13 01:24:52 UTC+9

Current block: 61061 (since 2014-04-13 01:21:37 UTC+9, duration 03:15)
Current difficulty: 0.01075983
Block reward: 10.73193820 PTS
Coins generated: 1,604,615.83267023 PTS (79.59% of 2.016M PTS genarated,
                                         -104,615.83267023 PTS to BTS release)

Blocks to retarget: 3451
Measured: 14.41%
Estimated difficulty: 0.02611086 (242.67%)
Time to retarget: 3d 08:30:14 (2014-04-16 09:55:06 UTC+9)

Network hashing speed:
Last 100 blocks: 33,548,542.98 cpm ETA: 3d 07:13:45
Last  50 blocks: 33,017,231.22 cpm ETA: 3d 08:30:14
Last  15 blocks: 31,895,556.87 cpm ETA: 3d 11:20:06
Last   5 blocks: 32,775,260.96 cpm ETA: 3d 09:05:54
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Offline mf-tzo

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Re: 42 days estimated for Difficulty to retarget. Could this kill PTS?
« Reply #164 on: April 13, 2014, 12:03:46 pm »
I am very curious.. How much do you guys estimate that PTS will drop in $ terms (assuming BTC will remain at current levels $350 - $450) based on the numbers that you are watching? It appears to be on free fall...

It is very tempting to invest now and get as much shares that I can but so far my trading hasn't gone very well and I am starting to get really worried... I kept bying whenever I could. I was bying when first released at $2 - $20 and almost never sold even after the snapshot..And if I buy again now and falls to $1 I will have absolutely no way to recover from that...

I undesrtand that might be a silly question but just throw me some estimated numbers please...I can't afford to lose more..  :(

Thanks!