111* days estimated for Difficulty to retarget. Could this kill PTS?

[svk]

Estimated difficulty: 0.04039175 (375.39%)
Time to retarget: 0d 05:48:00 (2014-04-15 20:26:39 UTC+9)

If this will happen, it will be the death of Bitshares PTS... 

Yea it's scary, actually going to jump back above the previous difficulty! Guess we'll be oscillating between extreme difficulty and low profitability and low difficulty and very high profitability until PTS gets mined out..

[Bigboppa]

Estimated difficulty: 0.04039175 (375.39%)
Time to retarget: 0d 05:48:00 (2014-04-15 20:26:39 UTC+9)

If this will happen, it will be the death of Bitshares PTS... 

[xeroc]

I kept my cryptogenic bullion and the nextcoins ... just because :-)

I may be willing to sell a few <200 pts if the price goes back up to 0.02. Of not i am probably in indefinitly for the future shares

[liondani]

** i sold most of my altcoins and are ready to buy up all your bts ... no matter the price :-)

if you had only PTS would you give them to buy BTS ?


PS you said most of them... which one do you still have? 

[xeroc]

** i sold most of my altcoins and are ready to buy up all your bts ... no matter the price :-)

[liondani]

I am very curious.. How much do you guys estimate that PTS will drop in $ terms (assuming BTC will remain at current levels $350 - $450) based on the numbers that you are watching? It appears to be on free fall...

It is very tempting to invest now and get as much shares that I can but so far my trading hasn't gone very well and I am starting to get really worried... I kept bying whenever I could. I was bying when first released at $2 - $20 and almost never sold even after the snapshot..And if I buy again now and falls to $1 I will have absolutely no way to recover from that...



I undesrtand that might be a silly question but just throw me some estimated numbers please...I can't afford to lose more.. 

Thanks!

When you look at PTS vs BTC you can see the price is fairly stable during the past quarter, except for all the positive excitement leading up to the snapshot February 28th.  After the snapshot, much of the value was transferred as a dividend to BTS-XT and therefore has not been lost since you still own both.

The "free-fall" has been in BTC, the underlying reference for the market.

The "problem" is exactly that. Both (BTC & PTS) compared with FIAT (US Dollars,euro etc.) lost about the same % of value the last month... So that means that the market has not discovered the advantages for PTS yet, or the market don't trust enough Invictus yet*... The price compared to BTC (PTS/BTC) schould rise (even a litlle bit every day) and because not doing that makes me a litlle bit worried. On the other side the fact that the price follows BTC (and don't decline further) altought Bitshares X is still in development and is not released (as "promised" the last month) makes me believe that the price will rise as soon it is out** and of course we have announcements regarding another snapshot for a new DAC...


*after release of Bitshares X I think Invictus wins "lost" trust again.
** or will it decline further because many of us will sell PTS to buy more BTS ? 

[mf-tzo]

Thank you Stan for your reply. Really appreciate it.

[Stan]

I am very curious.. How much do you guys estimate that PTS will drop in $ terms (assuming BTC will remain at current levels $350 - $450) based on the numbers that you are watching? It appears to be on free fall...

It is very tempting to invest now and get as much shares that I can but so far my trading hasn't gone very well and I am starting to get really worried... I kept bying whenever I could. I was bying when first released at $2 - $20 and almost never sold even after the snapshot..And if I buy again now and falls to $1 I will have absolutely no way to recover from that...



I undesrtand that might be a silly question but just throw me some estimated numbers please...I can't afford to lose more.. 

Thanks!

When you look at PTS vs BTC you can see the price is fairly stable during the past quarter, except for all the positive excitement leading up to the snapshot February 28th.  After the snapshot, much of the value was transferred as a dividend to BTS-XT and therefore has not been lost since you still own both.

The "free-fall" has been in BTC, the underlying reference for the market.

[mf-tzo]

I am very curious.. How much do you guys estimate that PTS will drop in $ terms (assuming BTC will remain at current levels $350 - $450) based on the numbers that you are watching? It appears to be on free fall...

It is very tempting to invest now and get as much shares that I can but so far my trading hasn't gone very well and I am starting to get really worried... I kept bying whenever I could. I was bying when first released at $2 - $20 and almost never sold even after the snapshot..And if I buy again now and falls to $1 I will have absolutely no way to recover from that...

I undesrtand that might be a silly question but just throw me some estimated numbers please...I can't afford to lose more.. 

Thanks!

[maqifrnswa]

It still looks like <7 days (4 days total)

Server time: 2014-04-13 01:24:52 UTC+9

Current block: 61061 (since 2014-04-13 01:21:37 UTC+9, duration 03:15)
Current difficulty: 0.01075983
Block reward: 10.73193820 PTS
Coins generated: 1,604,615.83267023 PTS (79.59% of 2.016M PTS genarated,
                                         -104,615.83267023 PTS to BTS release)

Blocks to retarget: 3451
Measured: 14.41%
Estimated difficulty: 0.02611086 (242.67%)
Time to retarget: 3d 08:30:14 (2014-04-16 09:55:06 UTC+9)

Network hashing speed:
Last 100 blocks: 33,548,542.98 cpm ETA: 3d 07:13:45
Last  50 blocks: 33,017,231.22 cpm ETA: 3d 08:30:14
Last  15 blocks: 31,895,556.87 cpm ETA: 3d 11:20:06
Last   5 blocks: 32,775,260.96 cpm ETA: 3d 09:05:54

[Bigboppa]

It looks like consolidating at ~2 weeks for next difficulty change - too good to be true...

Server time: 2014-04-12 07:05:26 UTC+9

Current block: 60507 (since 2014-04-12 07:04:17 UTC+9, duration 01:09)
Current difficulty: 0.01075983
Block reward: 10.73193820 PTS
Coins generated: 1,604,496.92279500 PTS (79.59% of 2.016M PTS genarated,
                                         -104,496.92279500 PTS to BTS release)

Blocks to retarget: 4005
Measured: 0.67%
Estimated difficulty: 0.01487280 (138.23%)
Time to retarget: 20d 15:22:26 (2014-05-02 22:27:52 UTC+9)

Network hashing speed:
Last 100 blocks: 4,256,135.38 cpm ETA: 30d 04:46:17
Last  50 blocks: 6,227,064.04 cpm ETA: 20d 15:22:26
Last  15 blocks: 9,851,209.42 cpm ETA: 13d 01:07:54
Last   5 blocks: 8,079,216.43 cpm ETA: 15d 21:48:36

[maqifrnswa]

BOOM!
http://mrx.im/pts.php?cpm=2940

the race is on...
next difficulty change in < one week...

Blocks to retarget: 4028
Measured: 0.10%
Estimated difficulty: 0.02322265 (215.83%)
Time to retarget: 32d 19:31:07 (2014-05-15 01:08:09 UTC+9)

Network hashing speed:
Last 100 blocks: 3,408,465.98 cpm ETA: 37d 22:12:58
Last  50 blocks: 3,939,513.35 cpm ETA: 32d 19:31:07
Last  15 blocks: 8,591,573.26 cpm ETA: 15d 01:06:09
Last   5 blocks: 18,122,791.36 cpm ETA: 7d 03:11:24

http://mrx.im/pts.php?cpm=2940

[Brekyrself]

Finally, now we just need more miners on pools besides ypool to spread out the hash.  1GH could use some support!

[maqifrnswa]

Get ready for a 70% drop in difficulty. It's pretty interesting that the estimate over a month ago was only 2 days off. This has been interesting to watch, it will also be interesting to see the oscillations in difficulty that will probably follow.

Blocks to retarget: 276
Measured: 93.15%
Estimated difficulty: 0.01073107 (29.62%)
Time to retarget: 3d 09:45:42 (2014-04-12 12:33:02 UTC+9)

Network hashing speed:
Last 100 blocks: 9,174,716.69 cpm ETA: 3d 06:00:52
Last  50 blocks: 8,754,203.82 cpm ETA: 3d 09:45:42
Last  15 blocks: 11,889,974.79 cpm ETA: 2d 12:11:55
Last   5 blocks: 9,883,557.28 cpm ETA: 3d 00:25:09

[santaclause102]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=546338.0