"its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability"

[bodenliu]

Looks like a 20% correction.  Yay.

looks more like a 35% atm 

[oldman]

If value flows from BTC to bitBTC as described above,  won't the price of BTC crash?  and the peg take down bitBTC with it?

Yes, a negative feedback loop is entirely possible. Perhaps likely.

At which point the value will flow to the safety of bitUSD.

This is the extraordinary attribute of BTSX. The value, once arrived, never needs to leave.

[patrickb323]

If value flows from BTC to bitBTC as described above,  won't the price of BTC crash?  and the peg take down bitBTC with it?

[Riverhead]

I'm hoping it stays "correct" until some time tomorrow so I can buy more .


The absurdity of it taking me pretty much a week to electronically move funds from one exchange to another underlines the value bitUSD brings. I could have driven to the exchange, gotten the money in a suitcase, and flown to Coinbase in San Fran in that time.

[bytemaster]

Looks like a 20% correction.  Yay.

[oldman]

And it has not been stable, its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability rather than some unforeseen event.

Bitcoin ran from less than a penny to north of $1k in five years in a very under-capitalized market with a very small fiat-crypto pipeline.

There is now a few billion in very mobile crypto-equity available to invest in the next big thing.

BTSX is the next big thing. Each cryptive (crypto-derivative... clever, no?) requires BTSX backing. We are looking at multiples on multiples. bitUSD, bitCNY, bitGLD, bitSLV... then bitGOOG, bitAPPL.

The velocity of crypto-equity is unprecedented. BTSX could potentially hit a market cap of several billion in the next few months... and that would just be getting started.

It certainly could, but it probably wont. Marketing would determine that as well as other factors.

The two chokepoints which are our bottlenecks are getting value into the ecosystem and having a way to get value out. We have found one way to get value in through fiat -> Coinbase -> Bter -> BTSX for example but it's not very efficient. Minebitshares is an attempt to solve this problem by bringing value in through mining but we need more on-ramps into the ecosystem.

If any of you can think of ways to create these on-ramps in and then the gateways out ASAP then it is possible we could have a market cap in the billions before the end of the year. If you can't get value in and out (value is distinct from money), then that limits the growth rate of our business.

I may have a lot of ideas but I don't have the resources to start businesses. Someone who does have the resources can use me as an advisor along with other creative thinkers in the community so we can push forward. If you want to see it happen and you have the resources to build a gateway service then crowd fund yourself like how Invictus did and recruit whoever you need from the community to make it happen.

I'm specifically looking at the $6bn of value parked in Bitcoin.

bitUSD works; so will bitBTC.

Once bitBTC is issued I can see no compelling reason to hold Bitcoin directly. Particularly if something like bitBTC5 is issued.

BTC enjoys a temporary advantage in the ability to make online purchases (Stan's checking/savings dichotomy), but this will fade as bitUSD circulates. In the interim it would be faster/easier to use bitBTC for purchases anyway.

bitBTC must necessarily be created from BTSX - so to create a billion to two in bitBTC, BTSX will need to increase in market cap by about twice that much.

What I'm saying is the initial run into the billions could be swift and without much resistance as value flows directly from BTC to BTSX. The pipeline is wide and unencumbered.

Thereafter, the usual fiat->crypto throttle will apply.

I'm a frequent Reddit and BTT reader and bitShares is not yet on the map; the BTC community does not see this coming.

If Brian markets well, bitShares will sweep through the Bitcoin community like a wildfire. The rush into BTSX/bitBTC/bitUSD/bitCNY could be an unprecedented market event that is not subject to the usual bubble and burst cycle. BTSX may well just bubble right into the billions without much of a pause.

[xeroc]

Bter has added a BitUSD to USD market... once this has active bids going then users who only want out temporarily can have more confidence that BitUSD is liquid and convertible.  This will remove a major source of selling pressure on exchanges.

For real .. awesome

[bytemaster]

Bter has added a BitUSD to USD market... once this has active bids going then users who only want out temporarily can have more confidence that BitUSD is liquid and convertible.  This will remove a major source of selling pressure on exchanges.

[luckybit]

And it has not been stable, its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability rather than some unforeseen event.

Bitcoin ran from less than a penny to north of $1k in five years in a very under-capitalized market with a very small fiat-crypto pipeline.

There is now a few billion in very mobile crypto-equity available to invest in the next big thing.

BTSX is the next big thing. Each cryptive (crypto-derivative... clever, no?) requires BTSX backing. We are looking at multiples on multiples. bitUSD, bitCNY, bitGLD, bitSLV... then bitGOOG, bitAPPL.

The velocity of crypto-equity is unprecedented. BTSX could potentially hit a market cap of several billion in the next few months... and that would just be getting started.

It certainly could, but it probably wont. Marketing would determine that as well as other factors.

The two chokepoints which are our bottlenecks are getting value into the ecosystem and having a way to get value out. We have found one way to get value in through fiat -> Coinbase -> Bter -> BTSX for example but it's not very efficient. Minebitshares is an attempt to solve this problem by bringing value in through mining but we need more on-ramps into the ecosystem.

If any of you can think of ways to create these on-ramps in and then the gateways out ASAP then it is possible we could have a market cap in the billions before the end of the year. If you can't get value in and out (value is distinct from money), then that limits the growth rate of our business.

I may have a lot of ideas but I don't have the resources to start businesses. Someone who does have the resources can use me as an advisor along with other creative thinkers in the community so we can push forward. If you want to see it happen and you have the resources to build a gateway service then crowd fund yourself like how Invictus did and recruit whoever you need from the community to make it happen.

[toast]

A 50% drop is ok if shorts have time to adjust their positions. The only time it is not ok is if the price drops so fast that there is insufficient collateral and the insurance fund is exhausted.

[liondani]

Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.

Apologies, my post could have been clearer.

When assets bubble and crash it is because value flows into and then out of the asset.

With BTSX it is a one way trip. Value enters via BTSX and flows to cryptives backed by BTSX.

So when BTSX 'crashes' the value flows to bitUSD, bitCNY etc. rather than to fiat, BTC, etc.

This, combined with the very high mobility of crypto-equity (crypto-value?) may result in sustained absorbtion of a vast amount of capital that never leaves the system.

Ie. BTSX just keeps going up. And up. And up.

At least that's what I'd like to see...

I like the way you think

[speedy]

Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.

Apologies, my post could have been clearer.

When assets bubble and crash it is because value flows into and then out of the asset.

With BTSX it is a one way trip. Value enters via BTSX and flows to cryptives backed by BTSX.

So when BTSX 'crashes' the value flows to bitUSD, bitCNY etc. rather than to fiat, BTC, etc.

This, combined with the very high mobility of crypto-equity (crypto-value?) may result in sustained absorbtion of a vast amount of capital that never leaves the system.

Ie. BTSX just keeps going up. And up. And up.

At least that's what I'd like to see...

Sorry but this is assumes that most BTSX trading takes place on the X exchange, which is not the case. And its not a satisfying answer for someone who is not yet convinced by BTSX.

[oldman]

Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.

Apologies, my post could have been clearer.

When assets bubble and crash it is because value flows into and then out of the asset.

With BTSX it is a one way trip. Value enters via BTSX and flows to cryptives backed by BTSX.

So when BTSX 'crashes' the value flows to bitUSD, bitCNY etc. rather than to fiat, BTC, etc.

This, combined with the very high mobility of crypto-equity (crypto-value?) may result in sustained absorbtion of a vast amount of capital that never leaves the system.

Ie. BTSX just keeps going up. And up. And up.

At least that's what I'd like to see...

[werneo]

Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.

How it makes it likely (to say nothing about, 'very likely' - whatever the term means).
What is the logic -'Cause it usually happens like that?'

The logic assumes that the sudden rise in the value of BTSX has captured the imagination of speculators around the globe. Speculators are not investors. Speculators are in it for the quick buck. They will bail all at once when they think the short term boom is over.  No big deal. Investors don't blink.

[tonyk]

Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.

How it makes it likely (to say nothing about, 'very likely' - whatever the term means).
What is the logic -'Cause it usually happens like that?'

Well this is what many people expect, and they have a fair point. All Ive heard so far in response is that people just "hope" its not going to happen.

What if 'fair' in random, based on nothing statement... I can say it will likely go up another 400% in the next week or two...at least I can defend on what I base such statements.