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Messages - Rune

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46
General Discussion / Re: [BLOG POST] - Casper Review
« on: August 08, 2015, 11:22:32 am »
You're not addressing the incentives of those who develop new full node tech, which is what really matters in the long run in my opinion. They will likely be incentivized to keep their competetive advantages proprietary and launch in competition with incumbents rather than collaborate. As far as I can tell, the result of the design is that ROI on node R&D is maximized, meaning TPS optimization, which is what I'd prefer from a common computation infrastructure.

Also, ignoring that, lets not forget that centralization of block production at worst only exposes people to what is essentially very complex and ridiculously expensive phishing attacks.

They're a theoretical problem, but easily solved since economic dapps will run their own secondary consensus algorithms in the virtual machine to validate in a way that is tailored to their own security preferences (DPOS is probably gonna be a first choice in many situations). With that in mind Ethereum block validation is ultimately the transaction processing and anti-spam layer, not explicitly a trust layer. For that function casper seems to be the best algorithm invented yet.

47
I'd love to hear what starspirit thinks about the eDollar pegging mechanism, because it's interest rate based, just as his proposal for a peg on bitshares was:

http://forum.makerdao.com/t/how-the-edollar-peg-works/64

paging @starspirit

If I understand it correctly, Rune's proposal appears to use an interest rate to modify supply, while on the long side there is no symmetric mechanism to modify demand. Somebody let me know if this is a wrong interpretation, as I only read Rune's main post.

My personal preference is for a payment system between longs and shorts that modifies both the supply and demand curve. This would lead to greater stability in both total issuance and the interest charged to shorts. For instance, suppose external interest rates rose significantly (e.g. after a Fed hike), and the relative demand for bitUSD fell as a result. Suppose demand at the peg price falls from $10m to $5m. The immediate impact would be a discount as half the current owners try to sell. By charging shorts higher interest as per proposed eDollar, the supply can be contracted to $5m (note this would have happened anyway with settlements, but at least this encourages shorts to act voluntarily). But if instead longs received the interest, a smaller interest rate increase would be required, as this will help lift demand at the same time as reduce supply, meeting somewhere in the middle. [As an aside, somebody might be able to point out to whom Rune intends for the interest to be paid, as I was not clear on this].

Such a transfer scheme is not so easy to implement now in 2.0, because there will no longer be a direct yield mechanism. However, it is possible to do indirectly, which I've been looking at for some time, and it may even be simpler in the end. So for example, suppose we create deposit tokens, where each token represents a notional number of USD that varies over time with regular interest accruals. Longs and shorts maintain a constant exposure to deposit units, but this represents a varying exposure to USD, that is captured in the net asset value of the token. By setting the interest rate with respect to discount or premium to parity (similar to Rune's approach), a mechanism is introduced that tends toward restoring parity over time. For people to be able to spend actual bitUSD in transactions then, one of two approaches are possible. One is to allow conversion of deposit tokens on a 1:1 basis with non-interest paying bitUSD tokens. Parity on the bitUSD is ensured by the 1:1 conversion with deposit tokens. A second approach, which does not require freely held bitUSD, is to allow a mechanism where transactions denominated in bitUSD are always sent and received from deposit reserves, and settled in the appropriate number of deposit tokens. While I expect all this is feasible with Smartcoins, I have to wait and see what practical difficulties there will be with tying together the processes for interest rate formation, feed production, and NAV calculation. I need to speak to the developers more about these things as we get closer to 2.0, but unfortunately am just a bit short of time at the moment.

There are some additional aspects that need to be ironed out though. One problem that Rune identifies is that market shocks can create quite large deviations to parity before the interest rate adjustments have sufficient effect. As a result, he introduces a penalty/reward on settlements. I prefer an approach where the algorithm for adjusting interest rates takes account of the distance from parity, not just the direction. Larger distances can lead to larger rate adjustments, with smaller adjustments as parity is approached. With the algorithm being public and transparent, there ought to be plenty of market-makers willing to step in before such distances get too large, in the knowledge that the rate algorithm will be moving quite responsively to restore parity. In fact, with such an approach, there may not even be a need for settlements at all, adding another great simplification to the structure.

Another problem is the zero-bound on interest rates. Under both Rune's approach and my approach there is likely to an insufficient supply (and persistent premium) if there is insufficient incentive for shorts to participate even at 0% interest. In theory though, it is possible to have negative rates (shorts earn interest from longs), but as a practical issue there is a big question mark around this.

There's more I could add on this wonderful topic, but another time perhaps...

Nice post, it raises some interesting points I will take into consideration.

Regarding the interest on issuance debt, this interest is paid out passively as yield to holders of dai. However dai holders only receive 90% of the interest that dai issuers pay, with the remaining 10% going to Maker in order to pay for undercollateralization insurance. Should a black swan event happen Maker will autonomously buy up all bad collateralized debt positions using the funds it has accumulated in the Maker vault (the account where the insurance payments go to).

In case there aren't enough funds in the Maker vault to cover all the bad debt, makercoin is inflated and sold off to cover the bad debt, at the rate of 1% inflation per week until the system is once again fully collateralized. But when no bad debt exists in the system, every week 1% of all the funds in the Maker vault are instead used to buy up makercoin and permanently burn them, continuously reducing total makercoin supply over time and thus transferring income to the investors of Maker as long as everything is working as it should. Among other things this insurance mechanism incentivises makercoin holders to be active voters and actively ensure that collateral requirements and debt ceilings are set safely for every approved collateral type, since makercoin holders, not dai holders, have to foot the bill if something goes wrong (except in the extreme case where Maker is wiped out, i.e. makercoin price goes to 0. Then the only option is to perform a controlled permanent devalution of the dai).

48
@Rune, Just out of curiosity, why have you moved your efforts to Ethereum?

He gets bored quickly and has big ideas. If Ethereum takes an eternity, we may see him back here again.

Pretty much. Also Ethereum is so easy to develop on that even I can do it, which is wonderful for someone who has never tried coding or developing apps ever before.

Regarding ethereum ever coming out, if anyone here has money stuck in the presale, i can confirm that its finally coming very soon, probably like a week. There is evidence that more than 20 exchanges are looking into integrating it, but I dont necessarily believe in the long term value of ether since fees can be paid in any currency on ethereum, including dai, so ether has no inherent value beyond the numismatic (which could still turn out to be significant).

I still hold bts btw, and im waiting for 2.0 hoping itll be good so i still visit this forum often.

49
I feel so stupid for messing up the grammar in the title, lol.

We've put the eDollar on the back burner as we aren't really interested in trying to make a great cryptocurrency UX just yet. Instead the dai is a cryptobond meant for investors looking for low-risk blockchain assets. This also means we are competing less with bitUSD.

I'm actually going to make a more detailed post about Maker on this forum soon. There's still many possibilities for Maker and dai benefitting Bitshares or using its blockchain, since blockchain scripting makes two-way pegs significantly easier to implement (depending on the consensus algo of course).

Maker intends to exist on every possible blockchain in the long run, and would definitely maintain a dai backed bitasset on bitshares if the EVM is implemented here in the future.

50
This is the most impressive announcement in bitshares history so far... Why is the price falling? It's baffling.

They are still just announcements... bitshares has had a ton of them in it's life cycle.  Until 2.0 is released, investors are going to be conservative with their money.  Once these companies actually start using the block chain, then investors will take notice and the price will move up.

"just announcements"... as in you think the markets believe this is most likely a lie? The dev team has lost some credibility, sure, but the chances of this being an outright lie seem vanishingly small - that's just the only scenario i can think of where markets would actually sell off on news like this. I guess crypto markets are just really, really inefficient lol.

51
This is the most impressive announcement in bitshares history so far... Why is the price falling? It's baffling.

52
I'll try to make it. Don't wanna miss this one ;)

53
In the long run the answer to this question will be different in every jurisdiction, and probably quite arbitrary. I think the best choice is to simply hope for the best and avoid doing business in jurisdictions that decide they want to try regulating blockchain-based cash. IMO regulating bitassets as securities is the same as just banning them, since the full AML bs destroys the user experience as money - and slabbing stupid regulation on cryptocurrency will probably be a convient and often used method by regulators to de facto ban it. At the current point in time, while regulators don't even know what smart contracts are, I think it's best to just move as fast as possible and try spread blockchains, pegged assets and whatever other profitable smart contract you can create, as far as possible.

54
Grats, this is really useful.

55
General Discussion / Re: Discussing an attack on BitUSD
« on: May 23, 2015, 08:18:51 pm »
This is actually a general attribute of all assets. BitUSD can be considered a debt instrument that provides credit to holders of bitshares (that they then use to buy more bitshares with). If the value of BTS falls, the access to credit of the holders of BTS also goes down. This also happens with all companies that use credit, or the holders of any asset that is used as collateral for loans, so it is a type of speculative attack that already exists. I think the big question is if the liquidity of an asset is high enough to support the amount of it that is used as collateral at any point in time, which is why I think there needs to be "debt ceilings" for collateral types the size of which correlates with their total market depth.

56
It will also partially be leveraging the stability of bitUSD to reduce risk (assuming it becomes possible for the contract to hold it with a two way peg).

You mean hedging edollar with bitUSD?

If we can figure out a way to get bitUSD onto the ethereum block chain, then it can serve as a source of diversified collateral that is highly isolated from certain kinds of risk, such as the risk of seizure. There could always be a (continously growing) pool of bitUSD held transparently and locked in a smart contract that would be backing eDollar in case of a black swan event, kinda like the rainy day fund on bitshares, but with diversified assets.

57
Not introduced by ethereum, it's just done on top of it. There were several dapps trying to make their own pegged currencies on ethereum, but I wanted to unify it with the right formula to create a token to use on ethereum dapps (since the market pegged design is the superior way to do it). It will also partially be leveraging the stability of bitUSD to reduce risk (assuming it becomes possible for the contract to hold it with a two way peg).

58
Hey everyone

As I've written before, we unfortunately had about 30% of our CFS asset funds as BTC the moment the bter hack happened. As a result these BTC have been converted into BTC-B, an IOU that is meant to be redeeemable for real BTC in the future, based on bter's income on trading fees.

We've now opened the buyback of CFSGOLD at the price of 0.7 bitgold per CFSGOLD, so people can get their share of the free bitgold back. We're also going to distribute the bter IOUs once they start paying out - if they pay out in full it should mean that all investors will have received approximately the full amount of what they put into CFSGOLD, not accounting for exchange rate swings in the gold and btc price. We will distribute this BTC based on a snapshot of CFSGOLD holders at block number 2000000, so remember to not delete the accounts you have that held CFSGOLD until the IOU has been paid out, or you will lose the funds.

The hack was really bad for bitshares and especially bad for cryptohedge, but I'm glad that we got most of our money back and I'm optimistic that the bter IOU will also pay out some amount of money, perhaps even the full amount.

59
General Discussion / Re: Cryptohedge and the bter hack
« on: March 17, 2015, 11:21:38 pm »
We're still trying to actually get withdrawals through. Once we have our gold and bitUSD out we will do a full calculation of losses and liabilities. Right now it looks as if about 30% of all CFSGOLD and CFSUSD funds have been turned into bter BTC IOU's that cannot be withdrawn from bter but supposedly will become real BTC over time through income from trading fees. We then have to figure out a way we can allow people to withdraw both their bitgold/bitusd and their portion of the IOU, something that can't yet be done with UIA's.

I think you will have to create new UIAs CFSGOLDB and CFSUSDB and sharedrop those on a snapshot of their respective UIAs. So CFSGOLDB would be distributed to a 100% snapshot of CFSGOLD and CFSUSDB would be distributed to a 100% snapshot of CFSUSD. CFSGOLD would then become a claim on the amount of BitGold you can get out of BTER while CFSGOLDB will be a claim on the amount of BTC you can eventually get from BTER from the BTC IOUs on the 30% of BitGold they took. Similarly, CFSUSDB would become a claim on the amount of BitUSD you can get out of BTER while CFSUSDB will be a claim on the amount of BTC you can eventually get from BTER from the BTC IOUs on the 30% of BitUSD they took. Alternatively, perhaps you could instead combine  CFSGOLDB and CFSUSDB into one UIA and just sharedrop that on a combined snapshot. Either way, when you finally received the BTC you will gradually need to convert the BTC to BitBTC (perhaps as a part of making the BTC/BitBTC markets?) so you can buy back and burn the CFS*B assets in the CFS*B/BitBTC market(s) on the BitShares DEX.

Does a mechanism currently exist for doing a sharedrop on UIA holders? It would be the best way to handle this but I don't know how we can do it. If its not possible to do at the moment then our options are to either auction off the IOU's and distribute the proceeds when we re-enable trading, or to take a snapshot and then do the sharedrop to the snapshot addresses at a later date when sharedrop tools have been developed.

60
General Discussion / Re: Cryptohedge and the bter hack
« on: March 17, 2015, 06:32:43 pm »
We're still trying to actually get withdrawals through. Once we have our gold and bitUSD out we will do a full calculation of losses and liabilities. Right now it looks as if about 30% of all CFSGOLD and CFSUSD funds have been turned into bter BTC IOU's that cannot be withdrawn from bter but supposedly will become real BTC over time through income from trading fees. We then have to figure out a way we can allow people to withdraw both their bitgold/bitusd and their portion of the IOU, something that can't yet be done with UIA's.

Any further update?
And could you please comment on why there is no longer any bids on the CFSUSDA market?

Sorry, I didn't realise they had run out.

Will put up more buy orders asap.

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