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Messages - Rune

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91
General Discussion / Re: Operation DarkNet
« on: February 16, 2015, 04:40:00 pm »
BitUSD has a lot of promise as a behind-the-scenes system for hedging against bitcoin volatility. I think the focus on using bridges for dark markets is the right way to go, especially if they could get a system so transactions are sent through a bridge and into escrow as bitUSD. The average user still only understands bitcoin, but with bridges that's all they ever have to understand or deal with while others can get the benefit of bitUSD.

92
General Discussion / Cryptohedge and the bter hack
« on: February 16, 2015, 04:18:39 pm »
Hey everybody,

The BTER hack was really terrible for Cryptohedge because it put at risk all of the work we’ve been doing to improve bitAsset liquidity. Cryptohedge had almost all of its CFS asset funds on the exchange at the time of the attack.

We're working to figure out our exposure. We see the most likely outcome as the majority of all bitcoins will get a haircut while all altcoins will be returned.

Cryptohedge held around 93 BTC worth of CFS client funds on BTER in BTC, BTS, bitGold, and bitUSD. Of these funds about 27 BTC were exposed to the hack while the remaining funds were in assets or off exchange.

CFS asset funding is temporarily halted. Since the CFSBTC funding round just began and the BTC we received did not get touched, we'll refund those to anyone who is interested. Please PM me if you have CFSBTC and want to redeem it for your BTC.

To CFSGOLD and CFSUSD holders: We will be forthcoming with updates as soon as new information is made available by BTER and will arrange a buyback/withdrawal as soon as possible. Despite this huge setback we plan to keep Cryptohedge moving forward and get bitAsset liquidity going on Yunbi instead.  This means there will also be the option of staying on as a funder. We hope to compensate for a part of the losses by doing an early CFSCOIN sharedrop on all funders.  Only by moving forward and staying in business will this compensation have any value. We took a hit, but we’re not out.

Rune & Riverhead

93
General Discussion / Re: Bter suspended
« on: February 15, 2015, 07:25:26 pm »
Cryptohedge held 27 BTC at the time of the hack. Any guesses to how big the haircut will be?

I really hope they didn't steal BTS or bitassets. Even if they didn't this is still a huge blow. Bter likely won't continue operations and if they did there'd be no liquidity. So now we have to find new markets for our bitassets - a real shame since bitgold had just got listed and bitUSD had just started picking up in volume.

94
Happy to see this getting started!

Hope we can have both bitgold and bitsilver fully liquid when the service launches.

95
Sounds like a plan, i kinda like these simple marketing solutions.
Before a delegate would be selected we could give it a test run, to see the results.
I'd be willing to put a bit of BTC in the faucet, for this experiment.

Don't we already have a few marketing delegates elected?
Even better.

Question though:
The point of this would be to attract new users to BTS.
Is there a way to calculate the value of a new user, and thus a way to calculate if this is profitable for BTS?

This isn't really possible because each user brings wildly different value. Getting one guy to deposit 1 million is as good as getting a million guys to deposit one.

96
General Discussion / Re: CFSBTC limited sale begins
« on: February 14, 2015, 02:10:22 am »
What are the expected returns for CFSCOIN and CFSBTC based on current tests?  Will you accept BitBTC rather than BTC?  Is there a way to invest in CFSCOIN right now?  I see the current supply of CFSCOIN is 1M while the max supply is 100M.. are there any future plans to increase CFSCOIN supply or dilute for any reason?

Good questions. I expect returns for CFSBTC and other CFS assets to be up to 1% per month (12.5% yearly), however in the first couple of months it could be as low as 0.1% to 0.5% per month as we reduce the spreads in an attempt to get volume to pick up. Right now we have earned quite a lot, especially on the bitUSD bot, but this is because our spreads are between 3-4% as we still do the hedging manually. (CFSUSD still hasn't been up for public sale yet but will be soon). The earnings of CFSCOIN is quite difficult to predict because it depends on the total amounts of all CFS assets raised, as it gains 30% of all earnings made by trading with CFS assets.

Taking bitBTC instead of BTC will be possible for a small amount. I will put up a sell order for 5 btc on the internal market as test later.

There is no way to invest in CFSCOIN right now, the only way to get it is to either work for cryptohedge and get paid a bounty (more to come on this soon) or to buy a CFS asset and secure a part of its sharedrop. We will offer a smaller amount for sale on the market as a mini-ICO when we do our altcoin announcement and start the buy&burn bot that transfer income into the coin by buying and burning supply.

Regarding the total supply my idea was originally that once smart contracts are on the blockchain we would issue all the CFSCOIN and put them all in a locked contract with a number of restrictions that could be controlled by CFSCOIN holders voting with the UIA. The only reason why CFSCOIN supply will increase is if it's necessary to compensate CFS asset holders if an exchange we are actively trading on defaults. The ability to pay out this insurance is what entitles CFSCOIN to its share of the income from all the CFS assets. I'm open to suggestions about what the best way to handle this would be - I've realised that it will be a lot easier for people to trust the coin if total supply can't arbitrarily be changed like the current situation (even if initial supply is still fully controlled by a centralized group), and we might choose to issue and burn all supply in excess of the current 1 million if we can find a way to provide decentralized insurance for the CFS assets without having the ability to increase CFSCOIN supply.

97
General Discussion / CFSBTC limited sale begins
« on: February 13, 2015, 10:47:47 pm »
Hey guys.

Riverhead is working hard at finishing up the hedgebot system that will allow us to offer the super tight spreads for bitUSD and bitGOLD on bter that traders crave. We're also going to have talks with elmato of Bitwallet and Monsterer and Shentist of Metaexchange about how to create a large amount of liquidity for the bitwallet once it releases (we want to have really high limits so you can send or receive up to 25 BTC as bitUSD or bitGOLD at a 0.5-1% fee)

Up until now we have been hedging all our bitcoin exposure using bitfinex leveraged trades. However if we want to really be able to offer the lowest spreads we will need to borrow our BTC directly from the community. We will do this in the form of a new CFS asset, CFSBTC. The idea is that CFSBTC will eventually function as an interest paying gateway asset, however at first it will just reside on the bitshares blockchain as a normal CFS asset like CFSGOLD, and will have a limited sale directly to early funders, manually by private message.

Here's the benefits of holding CFSBTC:

Steady returns from the market making of our HedgeBots: Since we fully hedge all exposure to other assets every time someone buys or sells into our market making walls on bter we are a guaranteed a small return on the difference in the spreads from where we sell (bter) and where we hedge (huobi). This results in a slow but steady income stream that is almost risk free (except in the event of an exchange default). 70% of the gross income from this goes directly to CFSBTC and results in an increased NAV. At issuance, each CFSBTC will be sold for 1 BTC each, but over time they will be bought back at higher and higher amounts as the BTC increase from our market making operations. At first while we are still at low volume this will income and NAV increase will be close to zero, but over time as we get more volume and more markets the return will increase.

continuos buy back/withdraw at any time: For every CFS asset there will always be systems in place to do instant withdrawal of all the funds they have deposited with us at the NAV. If there is large demand within a short period of time there can sometimes be up to 24 hours of waiting as we transfer money from the bots in order to pay back funders.

Early funder perk 150000 CFSCOIN sharedrop to CFSBTC holders: The biggest reason to buy into CFSBTC at this point (in addition to helping bitshares with bitasset liquidity) is the CFSCOIN sharedrop that all early funders get. This sharedrop is compensation for the fact that CFS assets are temporarily more risky than they will be in their final state (when they are insured by the value of CFSCOIN against exchange default risk). We will be releasing a lot more news regarding CFSCOIN and why it will soon become a really desirable investment as it takes on a life on its own as a DAC-coin that lives on the bitshares blockchain and gains 30% of all income earned by all CFS assets.

If you would like to become a funder of CFSBTC in our limited release sale then please send me a PM and you will get a bitcoin address where you can send you investment to, and will receive your CFSBTC at a price of 1:1. There is a minimum limit of 1 BTC to buy in. You will be able to withdraw your BTC again by exchanging your CFSBTC at any time at at least a price of 1:1, and possibly higher if NAV has increased (at first this this will also have to be done manually). At first there will be no fee on deposit and withdrawal, however once CFSBTC becomes a gateway asset that gets issued by a gateway there will be a deposit fee of 0.1%, and the income of this deposit fee will also go towards the NAV of the asset.

Also a short update on CFSGOLD. We're using all the bitgold we collected so far to either make sell and (hedged) buy walls on bter https://bter.com/trade/BITGLD_BTC or do continous buybacks at the CFSGOLD:bitGOLD market on the bitshares exchange (you can go there and withdraw your bitGOLD at any time). Volume has been quite low so far, but we have still made some income since we're still trading at a large spread, and might be able to do our first NAV increase soon. We're considering declaring a NAV increase and moving the buy and sell orders every time NAV increases by 0.1% rather than at specified points in time.

on CFSCOIN sharedrop. There will be a lot more news about CFSCOIN soon, along with a bitcointalk announcement thread and the new cryptohedge.io website. We are still considering when the best time to do the CFSCOIN sharedrop will be. The most important thing is that once the sharedrop is done we need to be sure that the CFS assets are "insured", (i.e. they can ensure all CFS assets stay at their current NAV if one of the centralized exchanges we operate on defaults). This means we will likely do the sharedrop some time after we've seen bitasset volume pick up, and have launched our buy&burn bot, which is the mechanism we will use to increase the price of CFSCOIN from 30% of the income of the HedgeBots so that CFSCOIN has a healthy, liquid market.

Have any questions about Cryptohedge, CFSBTC, CFSGOLD, CFSCOIN? please let me know and I'll answer. :)

98
General Discussion / Re: What in the hell just happened on bter
« on: February 13, 2015, 08:14:43 pm »
Well, if there's in fact, whales dumping, don't forget v1.0 is near so it only makes sense to pick them cheap now as the price goes up in the near future. It can be someone taking advantage of that just waiting for a big profit

Yep, BUY!  Make this bear dumper feel horrible!! Hehe.
I actually meant this 'bear' - if he exists - could be doing that on purpose to pick them cheap again before we release v1.0 and make a profit. It only makes sense to do so.

Actually it really doesn't. BTS is so weak right now that it won't take much to cause a panic. If a whale dumped now then it could completely crush us, so no one would do that with the intention of buying back in later.

99
If no one else is going to do then I will make one. It's ridiculous not having one.

I will be making one for CFSCOIN when we launch the buy&burn bot anyway, so i can help keep them both up, but I think it would be the perfect job for Stan to keep it running with latest info and insights, since he's already doing the puppies and communist posts.

100
General Discussion / Re: How to prevent yield harvesting?
« on: February 12, 2015, 11:08:25 pm »
Edit: I do realize that if short sellers start to outbid each other on price instead of interest rate, then there will be sell orders below the feed and self-shorting becomes impossible. This shouldn't incentivize them to offer shorts with interest, though, instead it should incentivize them to wait until the sell orders are cleared and then do the self-shorting of all their holdings at that time.

But you are assuming that those sell orders below the feed will be cleared along with all the short sell orders at the price feed, which is what is required for someone to do self-shorting at 0% interest. What if many people expect BTS price to go up and so there is a short sell wall at the price feed. Now BitUSD buy orders will clear up any of these BitUSD sell orders (either ones that people purchased by trading BTS or other assets, or ones that someone self-shorted into existence) and eat into the sell wall at the price feed (but not clear it out fully). Then over time more short sells will appear at the wall replenishing those that were matched. In this case, anyone who wants to do the self-shorting thing again isn't able to (at least not without offering the market interest rate).

Basically, what you are describing as a problem is only an issue in a BTS bear market where there isnt a short sell wall at the price feed. In that case yields should be zero.

Hmm, right, this does makes sense. So in an efficient market we can still expect to see yield and interest rates if there is an unbroken bull run for more than 30 days during which short sellers are constantly competing on interest to go long BTS. However as soon as this bull run ends and there is no one willing to short at the feed, we should assume that every BTS holder does a self-short with all their BTS bringing yield in all bitassets close to 0, and this will only end if there is another bull run that lasts more than 30 days. Is it really realistic to expect the market to have open shorts at the feed for this long, even in bull runs? Since the feed tracks the last price of the asset I'd assume that generally there should not be any open orders exactly at the feed, since these orders should already have been matched.

101
General Discussion / Re: How to prevent yield harvesting?
« on: February 12, 2015, 10:18:51 pm »
Ultimately anyone who wants to do bitasset/bts trading in any serious capacity will be running bots to do these tricks (self-shorting everything in the bitasset that currently has the highest yield with 0% interest rates and rolling over their own shorts whenever there are 0% interest rates and more than 24 hours have elapsed). The more people do these self-shorting tricks, the less traders will be shorting with interest. It seems to me like this should always equilibrate towards 0% interest rates and 0% yield.

I think ultimately the problem is that single actors decide the interest rate they pay for their shorts, and pay the cost individually, but the reward is divided among everyone who hold bitassets. This discrepancy makes the economic incentives misaligned, and what happens instead is that traders who wish to go long will self-short and then sell their bitassets with regular sell orders, so they can outbid each other on price instead of on interest rate (because this way they can offer the reward in form of a better price directly to the counterparty to the trade, rather than having to spread the reward as yield among everyone, giving them a better deal).

Edit: I do realize that if short sellers start to outbid each other on price instead of interest rate, then there will be sell orders below the feed and self-shorting becomes impossible. This shouldn't incentivize them to offer shorts with interest, though, instead it should incentivize them to wait until the sell orders are cleared and then do the self-shorting of all their holdings at that time.

102
General Discussion / Re: How to prevent yield harvesting?
« on: February 12, 2015, 09:35:57 pm »
It's natural to have less shorts in a bearish market, which would allow 0% shorts.
When it turns bullish the only way to get your short in is to raise your interest.

Even in bullish markets there will be periods where there are no active short orders at the price feed, just a moment of this will enable everyone to short to themselves at 0% interest (at which point there will be no more shorts at all, because anyone wanting to go long will just sell the bitasset they shorted to themselves). The markets will always equilibrate towards a point where there will be no open orders at all directly on the price feed, but only around the feed at a spread.

103
General Discussion / Re: How to prevent yield harvesting?
« on: February 12, 2015, 09:08:20 pm »
Maybe we should look at this another way: yield harvesting should be encouraged by everyone. If everyone tries to spot an opportunity to harvest when there are no short orders, then pretty soon there will always be short orders.

Its kind of like arbitrage, if everyone tries to do it then we have a more perfect market.

Yield harvesting doesn't create more short orders. At any moment there are no active short orders it's possible for everyone who holds BTS to short 100% of their BTS holdings to themselves in an instant. If everyone were rational actors almost all BTS would be held this way since there are always moments where shorting to yourself becomes possible, and as long as there is any yield it's profitable to do. This is also the best way to go long BTS, since you can just sell the bitasset you shorted to yourself at times where there are other shorts competing on interest, so you order will get matched first and you won't have to pay interest. Ultimately once people learn how to do this there shouldn't be any reason to short bitassets at an interest.

104
General Discussion / How to prevent yield harvesting?
« on: February 12, 2015, 08:15:34 pm »
One of the things that were discussed in the now-abandoned thread is that yield currently tends towards zero since people can short to themselves whenever there are no active short orders on the books, inflating supply and getting a cut of the yield at no risk. As an example about half of all bitUSD supply is currently held by a whale that shorted it to himself, harvesting about half of all bitUSD yield.

How can we prevent this from happening so yield can get high enough to drive bitasset demand?

105
General Discussion / Re: Proposed market pegged asset overhaul
« on: February 12, 2015, 07:31:21 pm »
The best I can come up with for getting yield to work is that delegates decide an interest rate that is then enforced by the blockchain somehow. It would be badly centralized but it could have limits that ensured it wouldnt change too fast if there was an attack.

Getting yield to work autonomously in the market is a really difficult task...

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