Bitshares price discussion

[Xeldal]

there are actually scientific methods to prove something and that's what Finance is all about. don't let me being a student give you a sense of superiority; i'm going back for my PhD later in my career, so most of my life hasn't been spent in academia. however, my background is irrelevant for arguing a point. just look at a random walk generated price chart and there's no way you'll be able to differentiate it from a stock chart. you can draw out all the TA techniques you'll like on that random walk chart, but it wouldn't change the fact that there are no hidden mechanisms to exploit, just randomness.

for all the persistently successful TA traders there are likely many more who failed. if you took a large population and set them to trading you'll find some subset every period who were successful. advance another period and there'd be some subset of that subset who were successful. repeat for n periods and you're still going to naturally find a smaller subset of successful traders. at the end it'll look like the remaining few are gifted, but no matter how you slice it you would have had a small set of winners at the end of any random process.

Your walking chart example is not really relevant.  Markets are not random. Price and volume are not random.  You'd be a fool to try and trade something knowing it was not based on anything but a RNG.  TA applies to real, human traded value based instruments. 

Actually TA would probably still apply to this Random walk scenario.  You'd see that its volume was very poor, like a penny stock, and therefore there would be no reliable way to apply TA.  The edge you get from TA is very small, so ideally you'd be trading things with massive trading volume that would not be subject to random interests, blown by the wind.

A good TA trader is also not stuck in a vacuum.  Its important to follow some basic news.  For example if you know that some event like quarterly earnings reports or FOMC minutes are being release, these events are a spike in randomness and TA goes out the window.  Its best not to trade these events from a purely TA perspective.  but with proper risk management they are not such a big deal either, and will even out over the long term.

[lil_jay890]

I suggest you research any of the following people: Chris Capre,, dale Pinkert, Kathy lien, rob booker, Scott Redler , Boris  Shlosberg, Alan Farley, Helene Meisler, and Tom Obrien.

All these people have made CAREERS out of TA.  You said your in college.  If your basing your opinion on something you heard from an Econ professor, you need to reevaluate.  What these people have done is proof that TA works and most of these people have audited trading records.

Nothing in life is 100% proveable, and their is no "holy grail" system out there.  There is only risk management and an edge that lets you exploit the small market inefficiencies that appear every day.

there are actually scientific methods to prove something and that's what Finance is all about. don't let me being a student give you a sense of superiority; i'm going back for my PhD later in my career, so most of my life hasn't been spent in academia. however, my background is irrelevant for arguing a point. just look at a random walk generated price chart and there's no way you'll be able to differentiate it from a stock chart. you can draw out all the TA techniques you'll like on that random walk chart, but it wouldn't change the fact that there are no hidden mechanisms to exploit, just randomness.

for all the persistently successful TA traders there are likely many more who failed. if you took a large population and set them to trading you'll find some subset every period who were successful. advance another period and there'd be some subset of that subset who were successful. repeat for n periods and you're still going to naturally find a smaller subset of successful traders. at the end it'll look like the remaining few are gifted, but no matter how you slice it you would have had a small set of winners at the end of any random process.

banks and hedge funds employ traders that use nothing but technical analysis.  Some bank trading departments Lose money 1 or 2 days out of the entire year.  I don't know how much more evidence you need to see that TA does work.

The only certainty in life is death, and of course there are going to be people who are not successful. That is the case with every profession.  Maybe our ideas of TA are different, but price movements are based on human emotions of fear and greed.  There has been vast amount of research done using Fibonacci and its ability to predict price movements.  Elliot wave is another concept that has been used to accurately predict future prices.  The key is to use these techniques along with risk management to be profitable.

Let's say I think stock xyz is going to hold $10 support level.  I would set a buy order at $10 with a stop loss at 9 dollars and a take profit at 12-13 dollars.  I would risk 1% of my account on this trade. If I'm wrong I lose 1%, if I'm right I make 2-3%.  I only have to be right somewhere around 40% of the time in order to make money. I would have to be wrong something like 300 times straight in order to blow up my account.

[Xeldal]

We hit for the second times the new support at .00001727. This time with lower volumes the price went up so I guess there less seller pressure and we are about to see the price go up ?

Maybe it will go up and hit a the former support at .00002. Then we'll see if it can brake it with enough volume ...

I'm reading my very first book of charts technical analysis, I love it ! Any opinion on noob TA ?

i'm not a fan of TA as it's never proven actual predictive power. as far as we know, prices in the short run follow something close to a random walk ...if you ever generate a price chart from a random walk process you'll see that it'll look just like any stock or asset price movement; there'll be things that look like resistance levels, trends, trend breakouts, etc. but the fact that we created the charts from random walks should show that our human minds all too often find meaning in the meaningless

There are literally thousand of profitable traders , both long term and short term, that use nothing but technical analysis.  Most people who say technical analysis doesn't work have either never tried it or blew up their account because they lacked discipline. Technical analysis is 20% system and 80% risk management.  Nothing predicts market movements 100% of the time, but if you ride your winners and cut your losers short you stand a great chance to make a lot of money.

there being a set of people profiting on technical analysis for some period of time doesn't prove it works; we'd need more evidence to prove it's not in the noise of randomness or luck, and so far that evidence doesn't exist. TA strategies do not have a documented record of producing alpha, so use them at your own risk.

Saying technical analysis is equivalent to noise, randomness or luck, is about like saying price and volume means nothing.  TA is an enormous field and is a great deal more than just support and resistance, whole numbers and Japanese candlesticks etc.    Any one indicator is prone to false signals, taken in sum though provides a statistical advantage.  Even if the advantage is purely because of a self fulfilling nature it shows that it does indeed hold some value and is not random.

The price of something over time and how much of it is being traded is of undeniable value and reflects a great deal on how the world perceives what is being traded.  This information is purely technical,  it would not be necessary to even know *what was being traded. You could deduce the publics sentiment simply by looking at these 2 things, price and volume.  This is the root of TA.  It goes a great deal beyond this of course, with all sorts of wonky indicators, most of which are not worth the trouble and are in general not very reliable, especially on their own.

Technical analysis is 20% system and 80% risk management.  Nothing predicts market movements 100% of the time

This can't be overstated.  Discipline is by far the most important aspect of successful trading, and is the hardest trait to master.  Without it you are almost certainly guaranteed to eventually lose your shirt.

[cylonmaker2053]

I suggest you research any of the following people: Chris Capre,, dale Pinkert, Kathy lien, rob booker, Scott Redler , Boris  Shlosberg, Alan Farley, Helene Meisler, and Tom Obrien.

All these people have made CAREERS out of TA.  You said your in college.  If your basing your opinion on something you heard from an Econ professor, you need to reevaluate.  What these people have done is proof that TA works and most of these people have audited trading records.

Nothing in life is 100% proveable, and their is no "holy grail" system out there.  There is only risk management and an edge that lets you exploit the small market inefficiencies that appear every day.

there are actually scientific methods to prove something and that's what Finance is all about. don't let me being a student give you a sense of superiority; i'm going back for my PhD later in my career, so most of my life hasn't been spent in academia. however, my background is irrelevant for arguing a point. just look at a random walk generated price chart and there's no way you'll be able to differentiate it from a stock chart. you can draw out all the TA techniques you'll like on that random walk chart, but it wouldn't change the fact that there are no hidden mechanisms to exploit, just randomness.

for all the persistently successful TA traders there are likely many more who failed. if you took a large population and set them to trading you'll find some subset every period who were successful. advance another period and there'd be some subset of that subset who were successful. repeat for n periods and you're still going to naturally find a smaller subset of successful traders. at the end it'll look like the remaining few are gifted, but no matter how you slice it you would have had a small set of winners at the end of any random process.

[lil_jay890]

We hit for the second times the new support at .00001727. This time with lower volumes the price went up so I guess there less seller pressure and we are about to see the price go up ?

Maybe it will go up and hit a the former support at .00002. Then we'll see if it can brake it with enough volume ...

I'm reading my very first book of charts technical analysis, I love it ! Any opinion on noob TA ?

i'm not a fan of TA as it's never proven actual predictive power. as far as we know, prices in the short run follow something close to a random walk ...if you ever generate a price chart from a random walk process you'll see that it'll look just like any stock or asset price movement; there'll be things that look like resistance levels, trends, trend breakouts, etc. but the fact that we created the charts from random walks should show that our human minds all too often find meaning in the meaningless

There are literally thousand of profitable traders , both long term and short term, that use nothing but technical analysis.  Most people who say technical analysis doesn't work have either never tried it or blew up their account because they lacked discipline. Technical analysis is 20% system and 80% risk management.  Nothing predicts market movements 100% of the time, but if you ride your winners and cut your losers short you stand a great chance to make a lot of money.

there being a set of people profiting on technical analysis for some period of time doesn't prove it works; we'd need more evidence to prove it's not in the noise of randomness or luck, and so far that evidence doesn't exist. TA strategies do not have a documented record of producing alpha, so use them at your own risk.

I suggest you research any of the following people: Chris Capre,, dale Pinkert, Kathy lien, rob booker, Scott Redler , Boris  Shlosberg, Alan Farley, Helene Meisler, and Tom Obrien.

All these people have made CAREERS out of TA.  You said your in college.  If your basing your opinion on something you heard from an Econ professor, you need to reevaluate.  What these people have done is proof that TA works and most of these people have audited trading records.

Nothing in life is 100% proveable, and their is no "holy grail" system out there.  There is only risk management and an edge that lets you exploit the small market inefficiencies that appear every day.

[cylonmaker2053]

We hit for the second times the new support at .00001727. This time with lower volumes the price went up so I guess there less seller pressure and we are about to see the price go up ?

Maybe it will go up and hit a the former support at .00002. Then we'll see if it can brake it with enough volume ...

I'm reading my very first book of charts technical analysis, I love it ! Any opinion on noob TA ?

i'm not a fan of TA as it's never proven actual predictive power. as far as we know, prices in the short run follow something close to a random walk ...if you ever generate a price chart from a random walk process you'll see that it'll look just like any stock or asset price movement; there'll be things that look like resistance levels, trends, trend breakouts, etc. but the fact that we created the charts from random walks should show that our human minds all too often find meaning in the meaningless

There are literally thousand of profitable traders , both long term and short term, that use nothing but technical analysis.  Most people who say technical analysis doesn't work have either never tried it or blew up their account because they lacked discipline. Technical analysis is 20% system and 80% risk management.  Nothing predicts market movements 100% of the time, but if you ride your winners and cut your losers short you stand a great chance to make a lot of money.

there being a set of people profiting on technical analysis for some period of time doesn't prove it works; we'd need more evidence to prove it's not in the noise of randomness or luck, and so far that evidence doesn't exist. TA strategies do not have a documented record of producing alpha, so use them at your own risk.

however, i do appreciate the risk management techniques ...

[lil_jay890]

We hit for the second times the new support at .00001727. This time with lower volumes the price went up so I guess there less seller pressure and we are about to see the price go up ?

Maybe it will go up and hit a the former support at .00002. Then we'll see if it can brake it with enough volume ...

I'm reading my very first book of charts technical analysis, I love it ! Any opinion on noob TA ?

i'm not a fan of TA as it's never proven actual predictive power. as far as we know, prices in the short run follow something close to a random walk ...if you ever generate a price chart from a random walk process you'll see that it'll look just like any stock or asset price movement; there'll be things that look like resistance levels, trends, trend breakouts, etc. but the fact that we created the charts from random walks should show that our human minds all too often find meaning in the meaningless

There are literally thousand of profitable traders , both long term and short term, that use nothing but technical analysis.  Most people who say technical analysis doesn't work have either never tried it or blew up their account because they lacked discipline. Technical analysis is 20% system and 80% risk management.  Nothing predicts market movements 100% of the time, but if you ride your winners and cut your losers short you stand a great chance to make a lot of money.

[cylonmaker2053]

We hit for the second times the new support at .00001727. This time with lower volumes the price went up so I guess there less seller pressure and we are about to see the price go up ?

Maybe it will go up and hit a the former support at .00002. Then we'll see if it can brake it with enough volume ...

I'm reading my very first book of charts technical analysis, I love it ! Any opinion on noob TA ?

i'm not a fan of TA as it's never proven actual predictive power. as far as we know, prices in the short run follow something close to a random walk ...if you ever generate a price chart from a random walk process you'll see that it'll look just like any stock or asset price movement; there'll be things that look like resistance levels, trends, trend breakouts, etc. but the fact that we created the charts from random walks should show that our human minds all too often find meaning in the meaningless

[EstefanTT]

We hit for the second times the new support at .00001727. This time with lower volumes the price went up so I guess there less seller pressure and we are about to see the price go up ?

Maybe it will go up and hit a the former support at .00002. Then we'll see if it can brake it with enough volume ...

I'm reading my very first book of charts technical analysis, I love it ! Any opinion on noob TA ?

[karnal]

I dont see why Overstock wouldnt be interested now. They seem to like crypto and counterparty fell through.

i'm sure Overstock isn't yet interested, but with a  successful 2.0 adoption the sky's the limit. seriously, Overstock has lost something like $100k+ in holding BTC; holding bitUSD they would have preserved the purchasing power of their crypto. firms like Overstock aren't into crypto for speculation on price, so our products would be ideal for them once we've proven we can create viable and liquid markets.

We could get in touch with them *now*, and inform them about what's to come.

[JoeyD]

Since then the market has had to price in that it could actually still be a
while till 2.0 release and that with so many additions there may be quite a few
kinks to work out before it's a stable customer friendly version. The market
has to price in CNX. The market has to price in Ethereum may start trading
soon. While other BTS announcements have been well received by the community,
they don't result in any short term increase in the number of BTS users
or BitAssets. All the while BTS is releasing millions of BTS per week
via the merger and as it is very thinly traded at the moment it's hard
to support the price especially with Greece news which drew a lot of
speculators into non CNY based crypto-currencies.

Have you included the newest information BM revealed in todays Hangout about an
actual BANK being very interested in CNX, the graphene tech and or BitShares
itself?!

It seems some more exciting news are going to be announced

waiting

If you are still waiting on the recording you might have better luck over on the beyondbitcoin.org website.

On the hint that a bank might have shown interest, yeah I don't see how you could speculate on that. That might just be a bank interested in hiring/licensing a custom completely personal solution with no relation whatsoever to bitshares and it's stakeholders. Similar to solutions that Overstock wants to "own". Traditional corporations might have shares, but they sure as hell are repulsed by sharing.

As for the price decline, that's because of the Osborne Effect.

[sudo]

Since then the market has had to price in that it could actually still be a
while till 2.0 release and that with so many additions there may be quite a few
kinks to work out before it's a stable customer friendly version. The market
has to price in CNX. The market has to price in Ethereum may start trading
soon. While other BTS announcements have been well received by the community,
they don't result in any short term increase in the number of BTS users
or BitAssets. All the while BTS is releasing millions of BTS per week
via the merger and as it is very thinly traded at the moment it's hard
to support the price especially with Greece news which drew a lot of
speculators into non CNY based crypto-currencies.

Have you included the newest information BM revealed in todays Hangout about an
actual BANK being very interested in CNX, the graphene tech and or BitShares
itself?!

It seems some more exciting news are going to be announced

waiting

[Erlich Bachman]

Overstock has lost something like $100k+ in holding BTC; holding bitUSD they would have preserved the purchasing power

ahh yes, the old "I told you so"

It's all in the delivery

[cylonmaker2053]

I dont see why Overstock wouldnt be interested now. They seem to like crypto and counterparty fell through.

i'm sure Overstock isn't yet interested, but with a  successful 2.0 adoption the sky's the limit. seriously, Overstock has lost something like $100k+ in holding BTC; holding bitUSD they would have preserved the purchasing power of their crypto. firms like Overstock aren't into crypto for speculation on price, so our products would be ideal for them once we've proven we can create viable and liquid markets.

[Blazin8888]

He just stated that there might be a partnership with an actual bank and didn't want to go into details ..

Great news. I will have to hear the record when it is released.

For the record, Bytemaster did this before when he spoke about partnering with Maidsafe... Ethereum.... is this another case of that remains to be seen.  Its a nice hint, but don't get too excited.


Others that could be added to that list: maybe Overstock?  Adam B Levine?  Toast coming back into the fold?  These are things that were potentials that fell through.

I dont see why Overstock wouldnt be interested now. They seem to like crypto and counterparty fell through.