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Messages - oldman

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436
Muse/SoundDAC / Re: PeerTracks! The first BitShares Music front end website
« on: September 10, 2014, 05:47:51 am »
May want to consider swapping 'paradigm shift' for 'revolution', ie "Welcome to the revolution".

Paradigm shift is a little too meta for the music crowd.

Revolution will resonate and is more apt.

Also, the thick white font is a bit clunky. Old guy opinion.  ;)

437
General Discussion / Re: Market Report
« on: September 10, 2014, 05:39:10 am »
 +5% to Cob for putting in the time and effort to respond to the community's concerns so thoroughly.

I've found his responses to be well reasoned and highly informative.

Well done!

438
for sure I'd like to use some of these infographics on my site and I think there was at least one that might make a good vertical banner ad so please let everyone know when there are usable versions done and where they are.

Will let you know GaltReport.

Xeroc, can we post all the infographics into 1 thread when things are done.

OldMan and anyone reading this (any opinion fine) - When should we send out the infographics to our crypto users and others?

Release should wait until the devs feel the yield mechanism is stable/functioning as expected.

Given how well 0.4.13 is performing this should not be more than two or three days, perhaps less.

Also need to have some basic info about what the yield actually is - nice to have some round numbers for folks to get excited about.


439
Great. I think more and more people will be willing to hold bitCNY in China

If bitCNY has a yield >2% demand may well take the community by surprise.

440
This is an excellent idea.

Better to find any an all vulnerabilities now when they can be addressed quickly and effectively under the auspices of a work in progress.

Much better than having someone discover an attack vector at a $2bn cap and cause real mischief.

By extension, I3/DacSun should really have a substantial open/rotating bounty to attract the whitehat crowd.

441
General Discussion / Re: Fee Flow / Yield Infor Graphic
« on: September 09, 2014, 09:33:48 pm »
Should we start calling the "rainy day fund" the "rewards fund"?

Reserve fund.

I agree. I would also like to bring up an earlier point regarding the supposed lack of a need for an insurance fund. I don't think the yields replace the need for an insurance fund. If a black swan event occurs and the BitUSD issued is partially collateralized by the BTSX held as collateral in the short position, this might hurt the peg. As the BitUSD that was collected for yield is instead destroyed until BitUSD is fully backed, the peg should return to normal. However, that may take some time. On the other hand if there was enough BitUSD held in the reserve fund, the necessary amount of BitUSD could be immediately destroyed to give BitUSD holders immediate confidence that their BitUSD is fully backed. They do not have to assume the network will be able to collect BitUSD in the future to balance things; they will know it immediately.

In fact can't there be a possibility in which the network will not be able to collect enough BitUSD to again fully back the remaining BitUSD with the BTSX held in collateral? If everyone tries to convert their BitUSD into BTSX, couldn't it be possible that some slow movers will have BitUSD without any short position to back it. In such a scenario, the network was too eager in providing BitUSD holders high yields. All the quick movers were able to cash out their BitUSD with high yields into BTSX. The slow movers got stuck with worthless BitUSD.

I think there should be a minimum limit on the BitAsset reserve fund. This minimum limit should be proportional to the amount of the BitAsset issued. If the reserve fund is below the minimum limit, the BitAssets collected as fees should first be used to fill up the fund to above the limit. As the fund grows well above the limit, the network should determine an appropriate yield rate to pay to the issued BitUSD that will not reduce the fund levels below the minimum limit. It should also consider the history of incoming fees in order to pick a yield rate that is fairly consistent (not too volatile) but still high enough to not grow the reserve fund without bound. If a black swan event occurs, the network should immediately destroy as much of the BitAssets in the reserve as necessary and possible to make the BitAssets fully backed.

This merits consideration by the devs.

The reserve fund will average the fees collected by the network over 1 year because it takes 1 year to pay them out.   Thus the reserve fund will continue to grow and be available to handle issues.

It would be advantageous to make reserve ratios and related information prominent or at least easily accessible in the UI.

Reserves will play an increasingly important role as adoption accelerates - the marketing folks should leverage the heck out of this feature.

A decentralized bank/exchange with transparent/provable/hard-coded reserves is the holy grail of crypto finance.


442
Yield on bitAssets will commence after the 0.4.13 fork.

This is a complete game changer in the crypto space and should be marketed heavily as such.

Once stabilized/functional it would highly advantageous to issue a press release and update any and all FAQ's to address yield.

I would suggest particular attention be paid to explaining, simply and clearly, where the yield comes from.

Folks are going to be screaming ponzi and scam.

I'm sure you guys are on it, but I haven't seen plans yet (or I missed them, entirely possible).

This should be huge.


443

'Yield' could replace rewards as a non-contentious alternative to interest.

A bit awkward in common use but still an improvement over 'reward'.

Exactly which is why the UI + API use yield rather than interest :)

Bravo! Great news!  +5%

444
General Discussion / Re: Fee Flow / Yield Infor Graphic
« on: September 09, 2014, 08:52:23 pm »
Should we start calling the "rainy day fund" the "rewards fund"?

Reserve fund.

I agree. I would also like to bring up an earlier point regarding the supposed lack of a need for an insurance fund. I don't think the yields replace the need for an insurance fund. If a black swan event occurs and the BitUSD issued is partially collateralized by the BTSX held as collateral in the short position, this might hurt the peg. As the BitUSD that was collected for yield is instead destroyed until BitUSD is fully backed, the peg should return to normal. However, that may take some time. On the other hand if there was enough BitUSD held in the reserve fund, the necessary amount of BitUSD could be immediately destroyed to give BitUSD holders immediate confidence that their BitUSD is fully backed. They do not have to assume the network will be able to collect BitUSD in the future to balance things; they will know it immediately.

In fact can't there be a possibility in which the network will not be able to collect enough BitUSD to again fully back the remaining BitUSD with the BTSX held in collateral? If everyone tries to convert their BitUSD into BTSX, couldn't it be possible that some slow movers will have BitUSD without any short position to back it. In such a scenario, the network was too eager in providing BitUSD holders high yields. All the quick movers were able to cash out their BitUSD with high yields into BTSX. The slow movers got stuck with worthless BitUSD.

I think there should be a minimum limit on the BitAsset reserve fund. This minimum limit should be proportional to the amount of the BitAsset issued. If the reserve fund is below the minimum limit, the BitAssets collected as fees should first be used to fill up the fund to above the limit. As the fund grows well above the limit, the network should determine an appropriate yield rate to pay to the issued BitUSD that will not reduce the fund levels below the minimum limit. It should also consider the history of incoming fees in order to pick a yield rate that is fairly consistent (not too volatile) but still high enough to not grow the reserve fund without bound. If a black swan event occurs, the network should immediately destroy as much of the BitAssets in the reserve as necessary and possible to make the BitAssets fully backed.

This merits consideration by the devs.

445

Define "Instant"...   on average a BTSX transaction takes 5 seconds to clear... with a small tweak we could reduce that to 2.5 seconds. 


Any chance 5s or 2.5s can be implemented prior to the first big marketing push?

I agree that 10s vs 5s vs 2.5s is meaningless in actual usage, and based on using the platform I am comfortable that 10s is more than fast enough for anyone.

But confirmation time is a big sore spot in the crypto space right now and is one of the main roadblocks for wider adoption of Bitcoin.

Fast confirmation times is one of the critical features everyone is looking for in the next big thing. My suggestion would be to throw down.

At the very least:

"Faster than a credit card and safer than a bank."

Would get some serious attention.


446
That's just it though, an attacked would not to have any stake in BTSX.. or barely any, just enough to be allowed to run a delegate.  Then he maybe he spends some money convincing people to vote for him or giving giving back 100% of transaction fees to those that vote for him, or whatever.  Given that people can vote for multiple delegates, a lot of people will vote for these delegates who are willing to work for free.  Once the attacker gets the bottom 51% of delegates, he locks down the network.. and 51% attacks and you hurt trust in Bitshares, even if you do fork the blockchain.

If a single attacker went this route it would be akin to a public official getting elected to 51 different offices simultaneously. Yes, it would be technically possible to create 51 delegate IDs and contrive to have them all elected. But damn, I can't imagine the time and effort involved. Not to mention the end result being a collective shrug and a fork.

It is also conceivable for a person or group to coerce 51 delegates through force or other means, but again managing that would be a nightmare. The global logistics of doing this are mind boggling. Perhaps a government, but even then jurisdiction is going to be a big problem. And good luck doing it quietly. That is a lot of victims and a lot of laws being broken. And still, the end result is a fork.

Not going to say it can't/wont' happen. But the impact/probability ratio is very, very low. And if user assets are not at risk, how many are really going to care? It's kind of like the response to the 51% attack in Bitcoin. 51% has been hit by a single entity multiple times. People are still using Bitcoin.

We are talking about an investment climate where folks are exposed to defaults, bail outs, bail ins, rigging and rampant systemic corruption.

If the worst that can happen are some minor disruptions to service (not even sure there would be a disruption) while delegates implement the fork most investors are not going to be concerned.

Which pretty much negates the whole point of the attack.

Again, I think this is a valuable dialogue that should be captured and marketed in the FAQ or similar.

"What happens if 51 delegates collude?" is going to be a common question, no matter how small the likelihood of it actually happening.

447
Latest updates on this yield...

If we make it fully linear with time, then people will attempt to use "compounding" to maximize their return by claiming their interest anytime the benefit from compounding exceeds the transaction fee. 
If we make it non-linear with time then it could make account deposits non-fungible: old balances are worth more than new balances.
There is no computationally simple way to perform "compound interest" because the "interest rate" is variable over time and a number of other complexities.

So we have implemented a compromise rewards system.
1) Any balance held less than 1 day gets nothing.  This rule sets the maximum rate of compounding to daily. 
2) 80% of your balance earns "simple interest" proportional to how long you have held it.
3) 20% of your balance earns "interest^2" proportional to how long you have held it squared... the goal of this rule is to make "long-term holders" better off than if they had attempted to compound it. 

I said it before and I will say it again, this isn't really "interest" because it doesn't "accrue" in a monotonic manner.   Your "estimated yield" could go down from day to day depending upon the rate of new fees, rewards claimed by others, and new issuance.   

So there is no "right or wrong" way to calculate the yield.  I am sure there will be many "games" and "strategies" people will have to maximize their yield at the expense of others such as:
1) claiming their yield right before they expect a supply increase
2) claiming their yield right after a bunch of margin calls reduces BitUSD supply
3) claiming their yield before a large balance hits maturity.

The expectation is that this "bonus" is something that will "average out" as people make transactions and that (for most people) it isn't worth attempting to game.   However, the mere fact that it can be "gamed" will drive people who like this kind of thing to get involved. 

Yes the numbers are a tad arbitrary, the calculations simplistic, but they get the job done of causing BitUSD to have a positive yield proportional to fees earned.

'Yield' could replace rewards as a non-contentious alternative to interest.

A bit awkward in common use but still an improvement over 'reward'.

448
General Discussion / Re: Fee Flow / Yield Infor Graphic
« on: September 09, 2014, 07:49:46 pm »
Should we start calling the "rainy day fund" the "rewards fund"?

Reserve fund.

449

UPDATED: You only need the bottom 51, not the top.

Now that market cap of BTSX is reasonable high and the top 51 delegates have over 10% of the voting shares it's an interesting exercise figuring how much it would cost to unseat the top 51.

So with a market cap of $70MM USD the cost of unseating the 51 delegates would be:

50th delegate has 10.11% and the 101st delegate has 9.2% of the share votes for an average of say 10% of shares voted.

$70MM USD market cap. 10% is $7MM USD to buy enough votes to unseat all 51. That is of course assuming you could amass $7MM USD worth of BTSX without raising the price at all.

That leaves the attacker to ponder how they could net more than $7MM USD out of the attack.

I think it would be a major bonus for the entire network if someone did that... here is what would happen:

1) people would organize to vote them out...
2) if the attacker stopped transactions that voted for other people then DAC Sun would release a hard fork that burned the attackers shares and the network would continue... instant 10% dividend :)

Hah! Beat me to it.

450

UPDATED: You only need the bottom 51, not the top.

Now that market cap of BTSX is reasonable high and the top 51 delegates have over 10% of the voting shares it's an interesting exercise figuring how much it would cost to unseat the top 51.

So with a market cap of $70MM shares the cost of unseating the 51 delegates would be:

50th delegate has 10.11% and the 101st delegate has 9.2% of the share votes for an average of say 10% of shares voted.

$70MM USD market cap. 10% is $7MM USD to buy enough votes to unseat all 51. That is of course assuming you could amass $7MM USD worth of BTSX without raising the price at all.

That leaves the attacker to ponder how they could net more than $7MM USD out of the attack.


I think this FUD angle would ignore the profit motive within the Bitshares ecosystem and focus on more sinister themes:

Perhaps there is a certain legacy industry that would see market share evaporate if Bitshares is successful...

Or perhaps the bad actor has substantial holdings in another tech (ahem) that would benefit greatly from damaging Bitshares.

Either way, pure profit motive does not seem adequate to justify this type of scorched-earth attack.

I think the answer is simply that should a bad actor somehow acquire the required stake and attack successfully the delegates/devs of the day will just fork and carry on.

Let's run through the exercise for kicks:

The attacker would likely have to acquire the stake off-market, as the slippage from acquiring on-market would be unmanageable.

Right away the attacker is going to run into a problem - most folks with large stakes are not selling at these prices.

If I'm reading sentiment correctly, most large stakeholders seem to consider $0.5-10/BTSX the floor for profit taking.

So now you're talking $1-20bn cap before large lots of BTSX become available and that means a $100m-$2bn stake.

The attacker would have to be willing to sacrifice the value of the stake. Ouch.

But let's assume the attacker has acquired the stake (somehow) and carries out a successful attack.

What has the attack accomplished? Proof that the platform can be attacked?

Now, if the delegates/devs are smart they fork... and decide to burn the attacker's funds.

A serious attack is transmuted into a very generous donation to BTSX shareholders.

Bitshares should really have an attack response plan in place to this effect.

Fork & Burn has a nice ring to it.



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