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Messages - oldman

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481
General Discussion / Re: The Market Peg Works!
« on: September 04, 2014, 07:31:12 pm »
My main takeaway from all of this has been that this experiment is like learning to ride a bike. At first you don’t have the confidence to give yourself  momentum. Instead, you learn with training wheels. Once you have confidence to give yourself momentum, the training wheels can be removed and you’ll never forget how to ride a bike.

 +5%

482
General Discussion / Re: bitUSD Feeds And Limits
« on: September 04, 2014, 03:47:32 pm »
I've seen stocks on s&p 500 get frozen due to too much volatility. Not sure why you are inferring that the Devs are doing something that isn't already done on major exchanges.

Exactly; no one in the finance industry will bat an eye at having breakers. In fact, a consensus market without breakers may be received with scepticism.

A hard-coded range limit is crucial for pegged assets that have value only in so far as they track the value of 'real' assets.

Who will put any substantial amount of wealth into bitUSD if there is the risk of some as-yet unknown attack breaking the peg?

I would even say the 10% range is too loose. Folks would probably be much more comfortable with 1-3%.

The range is essentially a risk premium for the convenience of holding/using a bitAsset.

At 10% downside bitUSD looks quite risky to an investor seeking a stable store of value.




483
General Discussion / Re: Good idea, but bad executor, BTSX is dying
« on: August 29, 2014, 07:26:11 pm »
After downloaded 0.4.9a, no connection bug comes again, just like 0.4.9 and 0.4.8............From 0.1.0 to 0.4.9a, after tons of update, 3I could not even produce a stable WIN wallet that can connect to network, what a joke! I am very disappointed at the dev team. The drop of price tells everything.  Yes, there is some method to resolve it, but I am not a programmer or geek, nor I have time to play with it. I dump, I leave, byebye.

This is valuable feedback on user sentiment/experience and should not be taken lightly.

Yes, there is a core group here that understands the tech is beta and we are all amazed at how well the peg has held up.

But we cannot ignore that BTSX is in the wild, has climbed up the leader board and is now visible to a much wider audience.

These concerns have merit and we should be more sympathetic to users that are frustrated - they have cause to be.

So let's acknowledge rather than dismiss.

484
General Discussion / Re: Is this the time to buy BitUSD?
« on: August 29, 2014, 07:20:34 pm »
Quote
Right now BitUSD is cheap vs USD and we are committed to making updates that will establish the GOAL which is a pegged crypto-asset that doesn't have to trust a 3rd party for reserves.

 +5%. That statement is good enough for me. Unfortunately I have no more fiat to invest, no more bitcoins and I just can't sell any Bitshares at current prices... The bigger problem though is that I can't use the client due to bugs  :(...when is expected the next release?

If anyone is looking for a reason for the recent downtrend in price, this is it. People are not trading and capital is not moving in because the interface is buggy.

485
General Discussion / Re: Here's what you need to do..
« on: August 29, 2014, 07:18:17 pm »
The charting should be taken with a grain of salt.

This market is way, way too immature/illiquid for TA to be meaningful.

486
General Discussion / Re: Here's what you need to do..
« on: August 29, 2014, 07:16:16 pm »

Chill out.


This.

Right now the price is down because:

1. Profit taking

2. Wallet issues

3. Liquidity

Note what is missing from the list? Tech failure. The peg works!

As an investor this is your primary concern: you are investing in a technology, not a market cap.

Anyone acquiring should be dollar cost averaging right now.

487
Well my bet was for 31/08 and obviously I lost it..I just hope it is not 31/08/2015...

I never despair..My confidence is still in BM and the team... I am buying cheap BTSX now... How low do you think it can go?

Waiting a year is just fine IMO. Even though LTC is a copy pasta trash coin nowadays, it still has a few years of history, and had stable value. I don't really expect a 2 month old product to overtake LTC so fast.

If I had learned anything from holding my Bitcoin for 3+ years, it's passive holding is better than active trading. I didn't sell when Bitcoin went from $32 -> $2, (bought at $11), was I screwed? I only had to wait 2 years to see my original investment go up 100X.

I never cease to be amazed at the timelines of crypto-investors.

It seems crypto-investors expect four-digit ROI and they want it in days or weeks.

Most investors measure ROI over a period of years, if not decades.

Do people not realize that a ROI of 8% over a 20 year period is considered average?

Please wait a year or two and then reassess. Not a week or two.

BTSX is a highly illiquid market trading a technology that has barely hit the minimum-viable phase.

The kid ain't even walking yet... still shitting the diaper and puking.

Give it some time!





488
BM's proposal is a good plan B if the peg continues to struggle in a more liquid market or as a fail-safe protocol if someone figures out how to attack/manipulate the peg.

However, I agree with the prevailing sentiment that we need a stable interface and some time before making any serious changes.

The fact that the peg is holding as well as it is given the liquidity/wallet is nothing short of amazing.

I am personally not participating in the market until the wallet is stable and the trading platform is released; there are probably a lot of folks in the same boat.

So I would vote for prioritizing on fixing the bugs and getting the system stabilized as-is, collecting some performance data in a more liquid market and then perhaps tweaking.

There should be a fail-safe protocol that would automatically identify and correct broken/manipulated pegs - would really help with investor confidence in pegged/consensus assets.

Perhaps delegates will have to continuously feed asset prices and the feed vs. market price are given a tolerance that if exceeded engages a bot.

489
The primary tool we have at our disposal is to implement a market maker algorithm into the blockchain based upon the median feeds of the delegates.

It would automatically buy BitUSD at .95 and sell BitUSD at 1.05 and then we would limit shorts to 1.05. 

The impact this would have on the network:
1) When demand to sell BitUSD is high the network is buying at .95 with new BTSX
2) Shorts would be unable to sell at .95... so they would have to first buy at 1.05
3) This establishes a 10% initial fee for any shorts and gives longs a priority in selling.
4) As the price fluctuates between those who want into or out of BitUSD the network makes money.

The network will end up with USD on its balance sheet proportional to the "surplus short demand" and the XTS created to buy this USD is actually locked away in the collateral of the shorts.   Thus we can safely say that printing XTS to perform this market making algorithm will not create additional XTS in circulation. 

We can quibble about the spread.

This process would function much like it does today except it would make the "shareholders" more money from the built in arbitrage bot.  The built in "bot" doesn't need to predict which way the price will ultimately go... only that it will eventually change directions.   

What is the risk from running this BOT on the network?  Little that I can see right now.


1) An attacker could print USD at will provided they were willing to buy at 1.05... but they would only be able to sell back at .95 unless there was real demand.
2) An attacker would be unable to print arbitrary XTS because they would have to buy BitUSD high and then tie up the XTS in the collateral and their USD would only have guaranteed demand at .95 so when they "cover" they would get back less than they started with.

The primary down side is the requirement of a price feed.  I think if you start the BOT off with wide market maker functionality, that eventually other players will enter the market and provide tighter market maker functionality at which point in time the "feed" almost never factors into the equation.   

If this is what it takes to bootstrap the peg I am willing to do it.   Thoughts?

I think this would be a desirable feature; as the Bitshares ecosystem grows there will be many illiquid/thinly traded assets that would benefit from an automated/benevolent arb bot. Should expedite the bootstrapping process.

Plus, revenue.

My vote is to implement and see if it helps or hinders the market.

490
Stakeholder Proposals / Re: [PROPOSAL] BitsharesX Performance Audit
« on: August 27, 2014, 03:28:27 pm »
 +5%

Excellent idea! You have my vote.

491
Can someone explain what OpenBazaar is all about thanks

OpenBazaar is an open source project to create a decentralized network for commerce online—using Bitcoin—that has no fees and cannot be censored.

can this relate / threaten Bitshares ?

https://openbazaar.org/

bitBTC/TITAN would be ideal for this type of system. The Bitshares marketing folks should really have a chat with the devs.

492
General Discussion / Re: Why is Bitsharesx dropping like a rock?
« on: August 27, 2014, 04:16:21 am »
Bitsharesx is starting to look more like a pump and dump by someone in China. I realize Bitsharesx was not created to pump but someone seems to be taking advantage of BTSX as a pump opportunity. Will Bitsharesx drop down into nothingness like how it's been for months since the launch?

Limited liquidity, price is going to bounce all over for the first few months. Nothing to be done except wait for capital to move into the system.

That said, I expect a pretty solid channel to form... pointing roughly to the moon.

493
if most people are just lazy and check the feeds.

feeds from multiple sources is the key here, Why make people run a bunch of windows to check other sources when we can keep it all in house

It's all about information feeds and signalling. When there is a profit opportunity it should signal directly in the interface so that this cannot happen. The user should select their mode, bull, bear, or market maker, then the opportunities should signal to them.

 +5% This would be ideal. Select asset and mode. Interface does the leg work. Would stabilize pegs and vastly improve user experience.

494
The demand for shorts has outstripped demand for BitUSD thus far.... so right now BitUSD is cheap relative to USD.    Few players are performing the arb. role at this point in time... I think it will take a while for things to get there.

Can you teach us to play that role? More players would take the role if we understood the markets but right now it's too complex for most people.

I think the best idea is to just buy BitUSD and wait out the storm.

When the BitUSD price of BTSX is high... sell BTSX to buy BitUSD... for a while the price was .05 BitUSD per BTSX... when the price falls to .04 BitUSD per BTSX, sell your BitUSD back to the market at the peg price.     You will make the gain from selling BTSX at .05 and buying it back at .04....   

The challenge here is that you have to separate out your investment in BTSX from your arb profits.  If BTSX doubles to $0.10, you can still make money from your arb assuming you can sell your BitUSD for BTSX at 0.10.   You missed the capital gains must you made arb. gains.   Arb gains should be less risky than BTSX and can be made in any market condition (up/down/sideways).   If you want to bet on BTSX to the max, then you may not make as much from arm.

My personal recommendation is that your BTSX holdings are more likely to go up if you help maintain the peg and add liquidity... so everyone should use at least 10% of their holdings to add liquidity.  The combined strategy will likely cause your BTSX holdings to grow faster than if no one provided liquidity.

Perhaps we should incorporate a robotic trading assistant into the wallet.

Most of the market operations are algorithmic and do not require much thinking beyond what the end goal is. People know what they want to do, they just don't know which buttons to push to get there.

ie. The user could select an investment goal (BTSX bull/bear, arb, hedge, etc. or perhaps simpler choices like 'I think BTSX is going up', 'I think BTSX is going down', 'High risk', 'Low risk', 'Provide liquidity'. etc.) and the assistant (wizard!) could take them through step by step. Alternatively, user can designate assets have the assistant execute. The assistant should have access to live price feeds and be aware of user balances/portfolio holdings.

There are robotic asset management services out there that do this sort of thing, and they are gaining in popularity.

Implementing a robotic trading assistant would be a huge value-added service that would make it easier for non-investors to participate and not get frustrated/hosed, ie. make the initial investing/trading experience positive and most importantly quick and easy.

This is an opportunity for Bitshares to leapfrog the industry, like skipping landlines and going straight to mobile.



495
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Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.

Apologies, my post could have been clearer.

When assets bubble and crash it is because value flows into and then out of the asset.

With BTSX it is a one way trip. Value enters via BTSX and flows to cryptives backed by BTSX.

So when BTSX 'crashes' the value flows to bitUSD, bitCNY etc. rather than to fiat, BTC, etc.

This, combined with the very high mobility of crypto-equity (crypto-value?) may result in sustained absorbtion of a vast amount of capital that never leaves the system.

Ie. BTSX just keeps going up. And up. And up.

At least that's what I'd like to see... ;)

Sorry but this is assumes that most BTSX trading takes place on the X exchange, which is not the case. And its not a satisfying answer for someone who is not yet convinced by BTSX.

if BTSX -> bitAsset trading occurs on external exchanges (ie. Bter BTSX -> bitUSD) the traded value is still retained in the Bitshares ecosystem.

Certainly if BTSX -> notbitAsset trading occurs on external exchanges (ie. Bter BTSX -> BTC) value leaves the ecosystem.

What I am plugging is that going forward there will be less and less motivation to move value outside of the ecosystem.

ie. why trade BTSX for BTC when you can trade BTSX for bitBTC (faster transfers, TITAN, etc.) or bitBTC5 (faster transfers, TITAN, ROI).

All of this retained value will ultimately be reflected in the market cap of BTSX.

Kind of a Hotel California scenario.

The problem atm is that most people keep their holdings on exchanges to buy and sell for short term profits. This will change hopefully as more people grasp the concept of bitAssets.


When people realize they can buy and sell any asset on a decentralized exchange with low fees and negligible counter party risk (ie. exchange default) trading volume will migrate to the X exchange (good for BTSX shareholders) and trade value will migrate to bitAssets (also good for BTSX shareholders).

At this point the tech has proven viable and we now all we need is a marketing push to bring liquidity....



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